Complete 2015 Projections

The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | G | F | UTIL
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
1. LeBron James, Cle SF, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7737.7.567.7501.56.96.41.811.60.33.527.12256
2015 Projections7535.5.572.7551.35.95.61.751.80.93.223.41979
2015 Outlook: LeBron's production was already sliding down a bit as he headed toward his 30s, and now that he'll turn 30 this season on a team with a couple of young stars, his minutes and workload will decrease further. Of course, this is all relative, because he's still the best player in the world and "fell" only to third on the Player Rater last season. Still, his reign as King of Fantasy has likely passed. Still, don't be surprised if his FG percentage rises once again, plus, we could also see an uptick in steals and blocks as he takes advantage of having less on his plate offensively. James will also benefit long term from a scaled-back role, so dynasty leaguers can expect him to be a fantasy force for many years to come. --TC
2. Anthony Davis, Nor PF, CYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics6735.2.519.7910.010.01.60.961.32.81.620.81766
2015 Projections7036.6.519.7810.010.41.50.881.42.71.720.11816
2015 Outlook: After just two seasons in the league, Davis has already proven to be one of the more dynamic fantasy players that we've seen in a long time. Averaging 20.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.8 blocks while shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and 79.1 percent from the line, Davis was scary-good as a sophomore. Those numbers were enough to place him 7th on our Player Rater despite missing 15 games with minor injuries throughout the season. Injuries are a slight concern after he's played in just 64 and 67 games in his first two seasons, but Davis is so talented that he's still a top-5 pick, and a strong argument could be made for taking him third overall after Kevin Durant and LeBron James. --BM
3. Carmelo Anthony, NY SF, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7738.7.452.8482.28.13.11.221.20.72.627.41942
2015 Projections7538.2.463.8382.07.73.41.311.30.62.628.31943
2015 Outlook: Melo has been a fantasy beast for a decade, as he combined his tremendous offensive skill set with a ball-hog mentality. Now the Knicks are turning to the triangle offense, which stresses team-ball movement, pretty much the opposite of what's worked for Melo in the past. Can the Zen Master teach the old dog new tricks from the front office? Melo shed weight during the offseason and has said the right things, so it's at least possible. Ideally, he'll remain in the scoring-title race and we'll see an increase in FG% and APG, creating a much better all-around fantasy player. His biggest obstacle may be a talent-thin roster that lacks a “Robin” to his “Batman” a la Pippen-Jordan, Kobe-Shaq, Pau-Kobe. --TC
4. DeMarcus Cousins, Sac C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7132.4.496.7260.011.72.90.821.51.33.522.71838
2015 Projections7432.6.483.7260.011.52.70.791.51.23.421.21794
2015 Outlook: Cousins put it all together in his fourth professional season, posting 22.7 points, 11.7 boards, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game and finishing 18th on our Player Rater despite missing 11 games. Boogie has had some issues with consistency and maturity early in his career, but his talent is undeniable and he's already turned himself into a borderline first-round fantasy selection as one of the few elite centers on the draft board. The Kings will rely heavily on Cousins again this season, and fantasy owners should feel confident taking him in the late first/early second rounds. --BM
5. Serge Ibaka, OKC PF, CYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics8132.9.536.7840.38.81.00.690.52.71.515.11659
2015 Projections7934.0.544.7580.38.90.90.560.53.11.615.61671
2015 Outlook: Ibaka followed up an impressive 2012-13 campaign by finishing ninth on our Player Rater in 2013-14 on the strength of his dominant shot-blocking and improved efficiency on the offensive end. Many have criticized Ibaka's somewhat pedestrian offensive totals, but Serge still had a fantastic season posting career-highs in minutes (32.9), points (15.1), rebounds (8.8), and free throw percentage (78.4 percent). He led the league in blocks for the third straight season with 219, and his all-around game has steadily improved during his first five years in the league. Given his strengths, he makes for a terrific second-round selection in fantasy leagues. --BM
6. Blake Griffin, LAC PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics8035.8.528.7150.29.53.91.381.20.62.824.12082
2015 Projections7934.9.533.7110.19.33.71.421.10.62.621.21913
2015 Outlook: Griffin has always been a dominant scorer and rebounder, but it was his improvement at the free throw line that allowed him to turn in the best fantasy season of his career. With 24.1 points, 9.5 boards, 3.9 assists, and 1.2 steals while shooting 52.8 percent from the floor, Griffin is a top-20 fantasy player if his 71.5 percent shooting from the line is for real. And why wouldn't it be? He's improved his free throw percentage in each of the past two seasons, and had a pretty good sample size of 674 attempts last season. He doesn't block as many shots as we'd like from our big men and the arrival of Spencer Hawes may cut into his scoring slightly, but he's still a quality second-round pick in fantasy drafts. --BM
7. LaMarcus Aldridge, Por PF, CYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics6936.2.458.8220.011.12.61.450.91.01.823.21720
2015 Projections7436.7.461.8200.010.22.61.360.91.01.922.21743
2015 Outlook: On the strength of his scoring and efficiency, Aldridge finished the season ranked 31st on our Player Rater despite missing 13 games. With 23.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 0.9 steals and 1.0 blocks, Aldridge is as solid as they come, though we'd love to see a few more blocks out of our big men. He makes up for his relative lack of blocks by being one of the few big men who can hit his free throws at an 80 percent clip. Fantasy owners should note that his field goal percentage is trending down as he has relied more on midrange jumpers in recent seasons. Still, he's been a perennial top 20-30 player for four years running now, and is an extremely safe fantasy investment. --BM
8. Kevin Love, Cle PF, CYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7736.3.457.8212.512.54.41.750.80.52.526.12328
2015 Projections7835.8.471.8132.212.23.41.420.80.62.422.22143
2015 Outlook: It's going to be an interesting transition for Love as he goes from being the sole offensive weapon on his team to one part of a superstar triumvirate. Even in that role, he will be a high-end fantasy beast, but the question is to what extent his overall production will wane. He'll take fewer shots each game, and his teammates will help keep opposing defenses from keying solely on him, which should lead to a significant bump in FG percentage. He'll still hit the boards, but the presence of LeBron James and Anderson Varejao will put a cap on how many he can grab. Expect his FTAs and 3-point production to remain big, too. He might not be top five, but he will remain an impact fantasy option in all formats. --TC
9. Chris Bosh, Mia C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7932.0.516.8200.96.61.10.701.01.01.616.21413
2015 Projections7436.1.492.8110.87.71.50.651.11.22.322.51639
2015 Outlook: The departure of LeBron James is great news for the fantasy value of Bosh. Those who have been playing fantasy hoops only while Bosh has been with the Heat should go take a look back at what he did when he was still north of the border to see his tremendous upside. He's only 30, and his limited role with the Heat also limited the wear and tear on his body. Look for Bosh to return to form, averaging more than 20 PPG with terrific percentages, especially free throws, where he likely will be among the league leaders in attempts. --TC
10. Dirk Nowitzki, Dal PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics8032.9.497.8991.66.22.71.850.90.61.521.71772
2015 Projections7631.0.488.8951.46.12.51.790.80.61.419.81550
2015 Outlook: Bouncing back from a down year in 2012-13, Nowitzki showed no signs of slowing down with 21.7 points, 6.2 boards, 0.9 steals and 1.6 3-pointers while shooting 49.7 percent from the floor and 89.9 percent from the line. He may be 36, but he's still a fantastic fantasy option thanks to his ability to contribute in multiple statistical categories while providing dominant field goal and free throw percentages. The addition of Chandler Parsons may cut into his scoring output, but there's certainly enough ball to go around for Nowitzki to remain a top-20 fantasy option this season. --BM
11. Paul Millsap, Atl PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7433.5.461.7311.08.53.11.251.71.12.517.91540
2015 Projections7633.7.472.7401.08.43.21.391.81.22.318.11644
2015 Outlook: Millsap's production last season proved what all of us fantasy heads knew, which is that Millsap would be a statistical beast if given a full-time starter role. He never got that chance with the Utah Jazz. He's only 29 years old and still has several good years ahead of him. The big question now is how much of last season's production he will maintain with Al Horford back in the mix. Look for his overall value to remain the same; while his scoring may recede, he should make up for that with an improved FG% and, perhaps, career-high marks in steals and 3-pointers. --TC
12. Andre Drummond, Det C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics8132.3.623.4180.013.20.40.321.21.61.413.51842
2015 Projections8235.3.620.4470.014.10.60.351.42.01.717.52114
2015 Outlook: It's mindblowing that a 20-year-old could average 13.5 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 1.6 BPG, 1.2 SPG and 62.3 percent FG. He further revealed his true upside when he averaged 18.4 PPG and 17.4 RPG on just 11.9 FGA during the final eight games. Of course, Drummond's big hang-up is his free throw shooting, which "improved" to 41.8 percent last season. Those final eight games were particularly rough, since he took 7.3 FTA per game at 43.1 percent. You don't need to be a statistician to know his free throws will be tough to overcome in roto leagues, a la Shaq and D12. That makes him a better play in points leagues, but just like Shaq and D12 before him, Drummond will be a beast in all formats if you can handle his woes at the stripe. --TC
13. Al Horford, Atl C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics2933.0.567.6820.18.42.61.190.91.52.218.6656
2015 Projections6934.6.561.6920.19.12.91.381.01.42.118.71629
2015 Outlook: You've got to ask yourself a question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk? Even Dirty Harry could have been punked twice by Horford's torn pecs, which essentially cost him two of his past three seasons. That's because we've seen 20 PPG, 10 PPG, 55 FG% potential from him when healthy. Before he got hurt last season, Horford was averaging 18.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG and 1.5 BPG. The arrival of Paul Millsap left fewer rebounds for Horford, but he made up for that with a bump in BPG. If you believe tearing each pectoral muscle was a fluke and are feeling lucky, draft Horford early (especially in points leagues) … then cross your fingers and hope you don't get punked. --TC
14. Dwight Howard, Hou C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics7133.7.591.5470.012.21.80.570.81.83.218.31637
2015 Projections7034.7.587.5240.012.51.70.551.02.03.118.11620
2015 Outlook: Howard posted 18.3 points, 12.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 1.8 blocks in what was mostly a successful first season with the Rockets. Unfortunately, it was his lowest shot-blocking total since his second year in the league, and he still shot just 54.7 percent from the free throw line in 9.0 attempts per game. Fantasy owners tolerated his poor free throw shooting in the past because of his dominance in scoring, rebounding and field goal percentage. But is it still worth punting the free throw category now that we have more and more rebounding and shot-blocking options in the league? He can still be a valuable fantasy asset, but only if you have a plan to protect against his free throw shooting. --BM
15. Nikola Vucevic, Orl C, PFYEARGPMINFG%FT%3PMREBASTA/TOSTLBLKTOPTSPTS
2014 Statistics5731.8.507.7660.011.01.80.931.10.82.014.21161
2015 Projections7232.3.509.7290.011.32.01.051.00.91.915.11536
2015 Outlook: 2013-14 was a disappointment for those who thought that Vucevic would build upon his breakout 2012-13 campaign. Injuries limited him to just 57 games and his production pretty much leveled off to where it was the previous season. Keep in mind, though, that Vuce doesn't turn 24 until just prior to this season, so there is plenty of room for growth on offense. In fact, he averaged 15.8 PPG on just 13.5 FGA (52.1 FG%) after the break last season, and he was much improved at the free throw line (76.6 FT% on the season), which hints at more upside beyond his high-end rebounding. The masses may be down on him after last season, which should allow you to get him at a good value on draft day. --TC