Complete 2009 Projections
PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
| 1. Adrian Peterson, Min RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 363 | 1760 | 4.8 | 10 | 21 | 125 | 0 | | 233 | | 2009 Projections | | 341 | 1701 | 5.0 | 11 | 23 | 184 | 3 | | 272 | | 2009 Outlook: Peterson has doubters. Will he come out in passing situations? Will he produce many negative-yardage plays? Will he get dinged up? Yes, yes and yes. But "All Day" has the off-the-charts size/speed combination and knack for massive, game-changing plays that no current NFL running back can match. Sure, he "only" tied for eighth in yards per carry (4.8) and rushing touchdowns (10) in 2008, and yes, he did fumble nine times (losing four). But in winning his first rushing title, Peterson had 11 games with at least 20 carries, a usage pattern that makes him mega-consistent. Plus, he enters '09 vowing to be bigger and stronger, which could allow him to stay on the field in pass protection more often. And he's 24. Only Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown rushed for more yards in their first two seasons. More touchdowns will come, pairing nicely with all that glorious yardage. Don't get clever. |
| 2. Michael Turner, Atl RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 377 | 1699 | 4.5 | 17 | 6 | 41 | 0 | | 265 | | 2009 Projections | | 358 | 1574 | 4.4 | 14 | 4 | 27 | 0 | | 243 | | 2009 Outlook: In his first season as a Falcon, Turner exceeded even the most wildly optimistic expectations, scoring 17 times and rushing for 1,699 yards. Because he sat in San Diego for four seasons, Turner is a young 27, and Atlanta's offensive line was a revelation that should only get stronger in '09. Turner is a terrific player. We like him, but he's not without risk because of his usage. Turner had a league-high 376 regular-season carries in '08, which renders him vulnerable to the "Curse of 370." Startlingly few backs have submitted great seasons after a single year with that many carries. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams and Jamal Lewis have all fallen prey to the curse in the past five years. So while Turner looks terrific, don't be fooled into believing he's not without risk. |
| 3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 197 | 824 | 4.2 | 12 | 62 | 565 | 2 | | 203 | | 2009 Projections | | 243 | 1142 | 4.7 | 11 | 65 | 606 | 2 | | 252 | | 2009 Outlook: Are we nuts in ranking him so high? MJD topped 100 yards rushing in only two games last year. He never has exceeded 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He averaged only 4.2 yards per carry. Plus, he's a Keebler elf! Relax. Jones-Drew's fantasy landscape has changed now that Fred Taylor is gone from Jacksonville. The Jags gave MJD more than 12 carries just five times in 2008, and he still ran for 12 touchdowns (and scored two more on catches). Despite his diminutive stature, Jones-Drew is perhaps the NFL's best goal-line back; all but one of his ground scores last season came from inside the 10. And because he's a terrific receiving option -- he was third in the league in running back targets, just two targets behind the leaders -- MJD doesn't come out in long-yardage situations. It's rare to find a three-down back whose skills align perfectly with what fantasy players need: touchdowns and catches. But Jones-Drew fits that profile. |
| 4. Matt Forte, Chi RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 316 | 1238 | 3.9 | 8 | 63 | 477 | 4 | | 225 | | 2009 Projections | | 327 | 1210 | 3.7 | 9 | 53 | 458 | 2 | | 232 | | 2009 Outlook: Strategy met opportunity, and the result was a shockingly good rookie year for Forte. The archconservative Bears loved what they saw out of him right away, so much so that they dumped Cedric Benson before the season began, realizing that Forte's plugging capabilities as a runner, his soft hands as a receiver and his fine blocking skills made him a prototypical every-down NFL back. Unlike other guys high in our rankings, Forte isn't a game-breaker. But he tied LaDainian Tomlinson for the league lead in receiving targets by a running back, plus was fourth in carries and seventh in yards. The Bears also brought in Jay Cutler, so Forte should see fewer eight-man fronts, which probably counterbalances concerns that Chicago will become a bit less of a running team. There might not be a surer bet for 300 carries and 50 catches in all of football. |
| 5. Steven Jackson, StL RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 254 | 1043 | 4.1 | 7 | 40 | 379 | 1 | | 175 | | 2009 Projections | | 316 | 1360 | 4.3 | 10 | 43 | 400 | 1 | | 242 | | 2009 Outlook: On a per-game basis, Jackson continues to be a fantasy force. But he missed at least a majority of five contests in 2008 because of a quad injury, after losing part of '07 thanks to a torn groin and injured back. So worrisome have these injuries become that it's tough to remember that Jackson registered the NFL's fifth-most yards from scrimmage in a single season back in '06. And if he hadn't come back with such oomph at the end of '08, maybe we'd be more freaked out. But Jackson carried it 62 times for 169 yards in last season's final two games. He also gets Jason Brown, a tremendous free-agent signee, to play center in front of him, second overall pick Jason Smith at tackle and a good lead-blocking fullback in Mike Karney. We have every expectation that if Jackson stays healthy, he can be fantasy's No. 1 player. But he's not for the faint of heart. |
| 6. DeAngelo Williams, Car RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 274 | 1518 | 5.5 | 18 | 22 | 121 | 2 | | 272 | | 2009 Projections | | 290 | 1437 | 5.0 | 11 | 20 | 117 | 2 | | 232 | | 2009 Outlook: Five years from now, when we look back at the 2008 season, will we be shocked and chagrined that of all people, DeAngelo Williams led running backs in fantasy points? Put it this way: If the Panthers thought they had one of the best backs in the league in Williams, why did they spend a 2008 first-round pick on Jonathan Stewart? Williams was ungodly good in the season's second half: 892 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns and two four-TD games. He runs behind a road-grading O-line, and is only 26 years old. So why doesn't he merit top-5 consideration? Well, it's all about Stewart. As a rookie, Stewart struggled to stay healthy, a problem that has resurfaced again in training camp, yet still siphoned off 183 carries, 833 yards and 10 touchdowns. Williams is the starter, yes, but Carolina is infamous for splitting backfield duties (remember when Williams teamed with DeShaun Foster?). Stewart will be an unfortunate and possibly increasing drain on Williams' prodigious value. |
| 7. Chris Johnson, Ten RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 251 | 1228 | 4.9 | 9 | 43 | 260 | 1 | | 192 | | 2009 Projections | | 272 | 1335 | 4.9 | 10 | 55 | 320 | 3 | | 243 | | 2009 Outlook: We believe. When Johnson came out of East Carolina, we loved his speed (he was the '08 Draft Combine's fastest player) but worried he didn't have enough shiftiness. We were wrong. He's never going to be a grinder, but when he gets the ball in space, he's deadly. Among backs with at least 250 carries last year, Johnson had the NFL's second-highest yards-per-carry average (4.9), had four runs of 30 yards or longer, and only had two games where he failed to break a run for at least 11 yards. He might've been fantasy's MVP if not for LenDale White, who had 15 scores, 12 of which came from inside the three. But Tennessee's coaching staff seems worn out by White's off-field act, and there's been speculation that the offense may become a bit less conservative in '09. Johnson seems in line for an even bigger role, which will easily make him a No. 1 fantasy back. |
| 8. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 292 | 1110 | 3.8 | 11 | 52 | 426 | 1 | | 212 | | 2009 Projections | | 294 | 1156 | 3.9 | 11 | 56 | 478 | 3 | | 246 | | 2009 Outlook: On the one hand, in 2008, Tomlinson produced his fewest touchdowns in a season since his rookie year and his fewest rushing yards and attempts ever. On the other hand, he still eclipsed 1,100 yards, scored double-digit touchdowns and tied for the most pass targets among running backs. Some will claim he's cooked, while others will claim he's undervalued. By our ranking, you know which camp we belong to. There are so many factors working against LT. He's 30. He has Darren Sproles, who was clearly the more effective player by the end of '08, pushing him for playing time. He has gotten hurt in two straight seasons now. Coach Norv Turner can whistle past the graveyard, telling reporters he thinks Tomlinson will win this season's rushing title, but the fact is that the Chargers nearly cut LT this winter. Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green ... history tells us not to blow top-5 picks on guys with warning signs like this. |
| 9. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 154 | 96 | 1431 | 14.9 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 210 | | 2009 Projections | | 154 | 96 | 1430 | 14.9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 221 | | 2009 Outlook: While Fitzgerald didn't win the receiving yardage title or eclipse 100 regular-season catches in 2008, he's our choice to be 2009's most valuable fantasy receiver. After all, in '08 he tied for the most receiving touchdowns (12), led the NFL in red-zone targets (31) and went on one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent memory: 30 catches, 546 yards and a playoff-record seven scores, all with a broken left thumb and torn cartilage between two fingers. Anquan Boldin is apparently staying in Phoenix, but there'll be plenty of passes to go around; the Cardinals averaged a league-high 39.4 pass attempts per game and also featured the highest percentage of passes versus runs in 2008. The only doubts we have about Fitz involve Kurt Warner's ability to stay healthy for a second straight year. If Warner goes down, all bets would be off (a la "Moss, Randy," circa 2008). |
| 10. Frank Gore, SF RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 240 | 1036 | 4.3 | 6 | 43 | 373 | 2 | | 173 | | 2009 Projections | | 268 | 1184 | 4.4 | 8 | 51 | 375 | 1 | | 209 | | 2009 Outlook: Turned out offensive coordinator Mike Martz wasn't the tonic Frank Gore needed. In an offense that passed 56 percent of the time in '08, Gore managed only 4.3 yards per carry, compared to 5.2 in his glory season of 2006, plus he missed two games because of an ankle injury. Head coach Mike Singletary and new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye have promised to transform the 49ers into a run-first crew, which sounds better. Gore is just 26, still has tremendous acceleration and a punishing style, and absolutely could be the horse the new coaches want to ride. But forgive us for not jumping for joy about injury-plagued Marvel Smith at right tackle, an interior line that has proven little or the fact that the team drafted Glen Coffee in the third round this spring. Plus, Gore has never exceeded eight rushing scores in a season. We admit he's tantalizing, but our patience is wearing thin. |
| 11. Andre Johnson, Hou WR | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 170 | 115 | 1575 | 13.7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 197 | | 2009 Projections | | 166 | 109 | 1476 | 13.5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 201 | | 2009 Outlook: Johnson finally ended his days as a fantasy tease last year, putting it all together to lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yardage, and he finished second in both overall and red-zone targets. Dogged by injuries throughout his six-year career, AJ now knows how to make it through a full 16 games intact. (Oh, yeah, and the bitter aura of having David Carr throw to him is now fully rinsed from him, too.) If there's one troublesome part about owning Johnson, it's that Matt Schaub can't stay healthy. In 2008, during the five games Schaub missed, AJ caught 37 passes for 443 yards (fewer yards per game and per catch) with only two scores. Plus, gun-slinging backup Sage Rosenfels is gone, and underwhelming Dan Orlovsky takes his place. But if Schaub follows Johnson's lead and manages a full slate in '09? Watch out, because you could be talking about the NFL's premier aerial duo. |
| 12. Drew Brees, NO QB | YEAR | | C/A | YDS | TD | INT | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 413/635 | 5069 | 34 | 17 | 22 | -1 | 0 | | 295 | | 2009 Projections | | 385/597 | 4827 | 30 | 15 | 27 | 44 | 0 | | 287 | | 2009 Outlook: In his three years in New Orleans, Brees has become the most consistently valuable quarterback in fantasy. In 2008, he became the second man ever to exceed 5,000 yards passing in a season, and he came within 15 yards of tying Dan Marino's record. His slow start in '07 is a distant memory, and his marriage with Sean Payton continues to bring huge rewards. Can you make the argument that Tom Brady deserves our top spot among signal-callers for his upside? Perhaps. But Brees is healthier, has elite weapons and a downfield passing attack, and throws on the run as well as anyone in football. You probably won't get 5,000 yards out of him again in '09, but 4,400 is a lock. |
| 13. Brandon Jacobs, NYG RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 219 | 1089 | 5.0 | 15 | 6 | 36 | 0 | | 190 | | 2009 Projections | | 202 | 1002 | 5.0 | 12 | 4 | 27 | 0 | | 174 | | 2009 Outlook: Jacobs' massive size makes him a new kind of NFL power back, and in 2008 he finally lived up to his hype. After scoring just four rushing touchdowns in 2007, he scored 15 times, and 12 of those touchdowns came on runs from inside the 3-yard line. He also maintained the same awesome 5.0 yards per carry he managed in '07, and eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season. Our lingering concerns over Jacobs involve his health. A year after missing five contests because of knee, ankle and hamstring injuries, Jacobs missed nearly four games in '08 with another knee problem. The departure of 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Ward from the Giants' backfield might be both a blessing and a curse; it could lead to more carries for Jacobs (Ahmad Bradshaw figures to be his new understudy), but it also subjects him to more pounding. But hey, there are no sure things among fantasy rushers. We don't mind taking a chance on Jacobs. |
| 14. Calvin Johnson, Det WR | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 151 | 78 | 1331 | 17.1 | 12 | 3 | -1 | 0 | | 196 | | 2009 Projections | | 161 | 81 | 1310 | 16.2 | 12 | 4 | 21 | 0 | | 205 | | 2009 Outlook: What more could Megatron have done in 2008? A mammoth physical freak with amazing hands and hang time -- incidentally, he also runs a 4.35 40 -- Johnson flourished in his second season despite the Lions having a gaping hole at quarterback. He had only 14 red-zone targets, mostly because Detroit was rarely in the red zone, and yet managed to tie for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions. He was also the only game in town: Johnson was third in the league in target percentage, as Lions quarterbacks threw it to him on 33.4 percent of their attempts. The switch to Scott Linehan at offensive coordinator is fine news for Megatron, as Linehan likes to throw in the red zone. Sure, some combo of Daunte Culpepper and Matt Stafford under center isn't optimal, but it shouldn't be any worse than the Lions' QB play was in '08. |
| 15. Steve Slaton, Hou RB | YEAR | | RUSH | YDS | AVG | TD | REC | YDS | TD | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 268 | 1282 | 4.8 | 9 | 50 | 377 | 1 | | 210 | | 2009 Projections | | 288 | 1350 | 4.7 | 6 | 54 | 428 | 2 | | 225 | | 2009 Outlook: Slaton is tiny and isn't a burner ... so how did this happen? How did he go from a 2008 draft afterthought (the Texans took him with the 89th pick) to a more productive fantasy player than LaDainian Tomlinson? Right place, right time, we guess. The Houston backfield was laden with injury-prone veterans, and Slaton features a cutback running style the Texans prized. Behind improved zone blocking, Slaton was decisive with his cuts, and in the process helped the Texans improve from No. 22 to No. 13 in the league in rushing. However, even coach Gary Kubiak admits he's nervous about a guy generously listed at 5-foot-7 being his only viable runner. Kubiak contends he'll pair Slaton with a bigger, short-yardage specialist, which could certainly mean a decrease in goal-line opportunities for Slaton. Still, he catches the ball well and is a terrific open-field runner. He has established himself among the fantasy big boys. |
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