Complete 2013 Projections

The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K | FLEX
Last Name: Team:

PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Demaryius Thomas, Den WR	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	141	94	1434	15.3	10	0	0	0	191
	2013 Projections	126	83	1249	15.0	10	0	0	0	180
2013 Outlook: The man they call "Bebe" makes defensive backs cry. He's 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, runs a 4.38 40, and outmuscles cornerbacks in the end zone. Combining him with Peyton Manning last year just wasn't fair. Thomas finished as fantasy's No. 5 WR even as teammate Eric Decker finished No. 8, illustrating just what an efficient year the Broncos' passing offense had. But now there's yet another mouth to feed in Denver: Wes Welker. Thomas had 140 targets in '12, Decker had 120, and slot man Brandon Stokley had 57. There's no way in the world Welker gets only 57 targets this season, and that means the other guys will see a drop-off. We still love Bebe. But some of his ultra-high potential is curbed.

2. Peyton Manning, Den QB	YEAR	C/A	YDS	TD	INT	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	400/583	4659	37	11	23	7	0	304
	2013 Projections	400/602	4870	38	13	20	4	1	324
2013 Outlook: Peyton's return saw him rack up 4,659 passing yards and 37 TDs, the second-best totals of his career, as Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker became stars. Now the concern: Manning's arm strength diminished late in the year. In his final four games including the playoffs, his completion rate on attempts longer than 20 yards was 27 percent. Before that, it had been 45 percent. The overtime interception that ruined Denver's playoff run wasn't just a bad decision, it was also a quail. We'd still draft Peyton because he carves up defenses, and because the addition of Wes Welker gives him a great triumvirate of wideouts. But at age 37 with all those neck surgeries, Manning is also far from risk-free.

3. Montee Ball, Den RB	YEAR	RUSH	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
	2013 Projections	247	1037	4.2	8	14	98	1	162
2013 Outlook: The Broncos made Ball a second-round pick in April's draft, and cleared up their backfield in the process. The days of Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno as major factors in Denver are most likely behind us: We'd expect to see McGahee released this summer, and Moreno is returning from a knee scope probably to a backup role. Ball's collegiate workload was intense1,001 touches, to be exactso maybe his long-term upside is curbed. But for one year, as Peyton Manning's feature back, Ball looks like a TD maker and a strong pass blocker. Ronnie Hillman will be a factor, especially in passing situations. But Ball is our nominee for this season's Fantasy Rookie of the Year.

4. Wes Welker, Den WR	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	174	118	1354	11.5	6	2	20	0	163
	2013 Projections	135	92	1170	12.7	6	2	16	0	154
2013 Outlook: It was pretty easy when Welker was in New England. You just penciled him in for 110 catches and 1,200 yards every year. But now he's in Denver, sharing the receiving spotlight with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, and things feel less certain. For sure, Peyton Manning loves to throw it to the slot: Heck, he gave fading Brandon Stokley 57 targets there last year. But the Broncos' outside weapons are so dangerous. Can we really assume Welker will approach the 160-plus targets per season he routinely saw from Tom Brady? We downgraded Welker a bit from his Patriots days, and we'd draft Thomas ahead of him. But he's still a fantasy starter, and should continue to be a PPR monster.

5. Eric Decker, Den WR	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	123	85	1064	12.5	13	0	0	0	176
	2013 Projections	102	68	883	13.0	8	0	0	0	134
2013 Outlook: Decker caught 13 TDs and notched his first 1,000-yard campaign in '12. He's big and fast, and while his hands can be shaky, he's got Peyton Manning throwing him the rock. In short: There was lots to love, right up until the point where the Broncos signed Wes Welker. Certainly, Denver goes three-wide a ton, so it's not like Welker will send Decker to the bench. But there are only so many targets to go around, and if Decker is a good outside WR specimen, Demaryius Thomas is a superlative one. Decker will have moments in '13, but his overall workload figures to diminish.

6. Broncos D/ST D/ST	YEAR	SCK	INT	FR	TD	PA	YA	PTS
	2012 Statistics	52	16	8	8	289	4652	186
	2013 Projections	50	16	11	6	347	4865	140
2013 Outlook: John Fox's sack-hungry defense put opposing QBs on their backs a league-high 52 times last year. When opponents turned to their run game they had similar problems, as the Broncos D allowed a league-low five rushing touchdowns. Denver signed Terrance Knighton, drafted Sylvester Williams and re-signed Kevin Vickerson to jam the middle, allowing Von Miller to continue his relentless pass rush. On the wings, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie was brought in to join Champ Bailey in coverage. Even with the fax-related loss of Elvis Dumervil, there's a ton to like about this unit, which doesn't need to blitz to generate pressure.

7. Ronnie Hillman, Den RB	YEAR	RUSH	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	84	327	3.9	1	10	62	0	33
	2013 Projections	102	466	4.6	1	19	138	1	71
2013 Outlook: The glass-half-full assessment of Hillman reads like this: After a decent regular season, the rookie did a brilliant job taking over for injured Knowshon Moreno in a playoff loss to Baltimore, piling up 103 total yards on 25 touches. The glass-half-empty assessment goes like this: Coach John Fox's praise this offseason was limited to calling Hillman "capable," and then Denver drafted Montee Ball in the second round of April's draft. Willis McGahee and Moreno may wind up out of the mix, but it's pretty clear the Broncos view Hillman as a third-down back. Ball is the valuable fantasy commodity here.

8. Matt Prater, Den K

YEAR

1-39

40-49

50+

TOT

PTS

2012 Statistics

18/19

5/9

3/4

26/32

55/55

138

2013 Projections

18/19

4/8

4/5

26/32

60/60

144

2013 Outlook: Prater's career mark on field-goal attempts of 50-plus yards is 15-of-20 or 75 percent, which is the best in NFL history. Certainly, some of the credit goes to Denver's mile-high thin air, but you still have to kick the dang thing straight. Prater has booted at least one 50-plus-yarder in all five of his seasons as the Broncos' starter, and has two 59-yarders to his credit (unsurprisingly, both were kicked at home). And let's face it: When you're Peyton Manning's bootsman, you're apt to find yourself with a whole mess of attempts.

9. Willis McGahee, Den RB	YEAR	RUSH	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	167	731	4.4	4	26	221	0	106
	2013 Projections	85	363	4.3	2	11	76	0	53
2013 Outlook: McGahee will be 32 in October and lost the final six games of last season because of a broken leg, plus the Broncos drafted Montee Ball in April. You don't have to be Nostradamus to know what's coming next: Denver is expected to release McGahee this summer, whereupon he'll seek to latch on somewhere as a veteran part of a platoon. When healthy, he moves the pile, has a bit of agility left, and is very good in pass protection. But wherever he lands, we'd expect him to serve more as a mentor than a bell cow.

10. Knowshon Moreno, Den RB	YEAR	RUSH	YDS	AVG	TD	REC	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	139	528	3.8	4	21	167	0	83
	2013 Projections	51	213	4.2	1	12	78	0	34
2013 Outlook: It only seems like you've been debating spending a draft pick on Moreno for the past 15 years. He's actually only been in the league since '09, but it sure has been a bumpy ride. The injury-prone Moreno has yet to register a 1,000-yard season, needed a knee scope this winter, and the Broncos selected Montee Ball in April's draft. Willis McGahee is probably gone from Denver, but with Ball and Ronnie Hillman ahead of him, Moreno looks like a fill-in back at best. The young RBs in Denver would have to crater for Moreno to see fantasy value in '13.

11. Jacob Tamme, Den TE	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	85	52	555	10.7	2	0	0	0	60
	2013 Projections	74	48	507	10.6	2	0	0	0	62
2013 Outlook: Tamme has the benefit of playing with Peyton Manning. But his fantasy value suffers because he also plays with Joel Dreessen. In '12, Tamme came over with Manning from the Colts and caught a respectable 52 passes, which ranked him 17th among TEs. But he only got five red-zone targets compared to 14 for Dreessen, which partly explains why Dreessen had five TDs while Tamme had only two. This frustrating timeshare figures to continue in '13. The only way Tamme or Dreessen have a hope of become every-week fantasy options is if the other one gets injured.

12. Joel Dreessen, Den TE	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	58	41	356	8.7	5	0	0	0	59
	2013 Projections	49	36	376	10.4	3	0	0	0	55
2013 Outlook: Dreessen is a better blocker than fellow Broncos TE Jacob Tamme, which explains why Tamme had 80 targets compared to 57 for Dreessen in '12. But these guys ran about the same number of pass routes overall, and Dreessen was Peyton Manning's preferred target in the red zone, which balanced out their fantasy values. Dreessen belongs in a category we like to call "Fantasy Nuisance," a role he knows from years of stealing TDs from Owen Daniels in Houston. You can't rely on him for fantasy, but you have to acknowledge his end-zone thievery in your evaluation.

13. Virgil Green, Den TE	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	6	5	63	12.6	0	0	0	0	5
	2013 Projections	37	20	256	12.8	2	0	0	0	37
2013 Outlook: Green has essentially been redshirted for his first two NFL seasons, but could have an opportunity to play in '13. Jacob Tamme disappointed in his first season as a Bronco, allowing the uninspiring Joel Dreessen to become a receiving factor. Green is a significantly better athlete than both of these veterans, and was a star of the '11 combine. It's not a great sign that he has eight catches in two years, but if he earns Peyton Manning's trust, Green would become yet another crazy downfield weapon in Denver's dangerous offense.

14. Brock Osweiler, Den QB	YEAR	C/A	YDS	TD	INT	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	2/4	12	0	0	8	-13	0	0
	2013 Projections	0/0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2013 Outlook: Clearly, Osweiler is not going to see a lot of game snaps with The Sheriff ahead of him on the Denver depth chart. But Peyton Manning is just a year removed from multiple neck surgeries and is 37, and time waits for no man. It was surprising that Osweiler won the Broncos' backup QB gig as a rookie, but he's ensconced in that role now, and would inherit three terrific receivers should he ascend to the throne. Would he produce Sheriff-esque numbers as Denver's starter? Probably not. But he'd be worth a speculative fantasy add for sure.

15. Julius Thomas, Den TE	YEAR	TAR	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	RUSH	YDS	TD	PTS
	2012 Statistics	0	0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0
	2013 Projections	7	4	40	10.0	0	0	0	0	4

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