Complete 2009 Projections
The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | QB | RB | RB/WR | WR | TE | D/ST | K
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PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
1. Drew Brees, NO QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics413/6355069341722-10295
2009 Projections385/5974827301527440287
2009 Outlook: In his three years in New Orleans, Brees has become the most consistently valuable quarterback in fantasy. In 2008, he became the second man ever to exceed 5,000 yards passing in a season, and he came within 15 yards of tying Dan Marino's record. His slow start in '07 is a distant memory, and his marriage with Sean Payton continues to bring huge rewards. Can you make the argument that Tom Brady deserves our top spot among signal-callers for his upside? Perhaps. But Brees is healthier, has elite weapons and a downfield passing attack, and throws on the run as well as anyone in football. You probably won't get 5,000 yards out of him again in '09, but 4,400 is a lock.
2. Tom Brady, NE QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics7/1176000003
2009 Projections349/5404210331131461288
2009 Outlook: Remember a season ago, when Brady was a first-round fantasy pick in every draft known to humanity? Whoops. It was impossible to account for Chief Bernard Pollard's desperate, season-altering Week 1 lunge into Brady's plant knee, just as it's now impossible to guarantee that Brady will be fully recovered from his torn ACL and MCL and the infection that reportedly attacked thereafter. However, the fact that the Pats traded Matt Cassel in February (to Kansas City -- oh, what a fickle game is life!) means Bill Belichick must be pretty darned convinced he'll have Brady at full strength in '09. Check the minicamp reports, watch him in the preseason, but believe this: you won't really know a thing until Brady gets out there in Week 1. The New England offensive system is awesome, so drafting him is worth the risk. But that doesn't mean it's not scary.
3. Peyton Manning, Ind QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics371/5554002271220211245
2009 Projections337/5254153311320182277
2009 Outlook: Make no mistake, Manning isn't the same guy he was five years ago. Last season's under-the-radar offseason knee surgery caused him to start slow against a tough schedule, his offensive line wasn't as spry as it once was, and the Colts struggled to get consistency out of their running game. Yet in what looked like it might be a "down season," Manning won the NFL's MVP award. He's probably not going to toss more than 35 touchdowns in '09, but he's also not throwing fewer than 25, and he'll surely get you 4,000 yards and won't hurt you with many negative plays. Even if the elite upside is gone because of personnel, age and circumstance, Manning is worth drafting because he's phenomenally sound and clutch.
4. Kurt Warner, Ari QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics402/5994582301418-20255
2009 Projections350/534415029161640250
2009 Outlook: In 2008, Warner wrested the starting gig from Matt Leinart at preseason's end and never looked back. He made it through his first 16-game campaign in seven years and racked up more pass attempts (598) than he'd ever had in a single season during his illustrious career. He's not the downfield-passing machine he was during his "Greatest Show on Turf" days with the Rams, and he doesn't always react well to blitzes, but the fact that Warner threw only 14 picks for the league's most passing-intensive offense speaks volumes about his wisdom and maturity. It helps that he's got Larry Fitzgerald, arguably the game's best receiver. We still worry about Warner's injury history -- his surgically repaired hip isn't at full strength yet -- and about the post-Super Bowl blues that strike so many Cinderella teams. But if Anquan Boldin is safely in the fold for '09, Warner is still a fantasy starter.
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics341/53640382813562074278
2009 Projections351/56040082915611874288
2009 Outlook: We have to admit, we were a little skeptical. Rodgers inherited the Green Bay throne from the master, and the Packers brass made all kinds of noise in '08 about installing a "true" West Coast offense, one that limited the vertical passing game. Yeah, not so much. Rodgers was a top-10 guy in yards per attempt, a leading indicator of fantasy effectiveness and big-play ability. He had 10 games in which he threw multiple touchdowns last season, and perhaps most important, he tossed only 13 picks compared to his 28 scores. Plus, the Pack continues to boast a deep, talented receiving corps. The only thing Rodgers needs to do is fix the tightness in his throat when games get close late: Green Bay lost seven games by four points or fewer in '08. Otherwise, he's a surefire solid fantasy starter.
6. Philip Rivers, SD QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics312/4784009341131840269
2009 Projections294/4753865281336640246
2009 Outlook: Nobody benefited more from the relative demise of the 2008 Chargers running game than Rivers, who recovered incredibly fast from post-playoff ACL surgery to lead the NFL in yards per attempt, tie Drew Brees for the lead in touchdown passes, take one sack fewer than Peyton Manning, crush the NFL in passer rating and exceed his career high in passing yards by 621. If not for Brees, Rivers would've been fantasy's top quarterback last year, and with LaDainian Tomlinson's effectiveness as perhaps 2009's most pressing question, the Chargers may be primed to become a pass-first team. (Last year, they ran pass plays on 53.2% of offensive snaps, 20th in the league.) We still have niggling concerns about Rivers' maturity, but doubts about his talent are gone. He's climbed among the elite quarterback options.
7. Tony Romo, Dal QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics276/4503448261428410196
2009 Projections320/5034001281930671246
2009 Outlook: Romo's overall 2008 numbers don't look great, but remember, he missed three games with a broken pinkie. He still made the NFL's top 10 in touchdown passes, yards per game, yards per attempt, attempts per game and passer rating, which made him a fantasy starter in all leagues. His real-life albatross -- that he's played puny in big games -- doesn't factor much into your fantasy league, except to the extent that when Romo is off, he's really off. The biggest strike against him for '09, though, is that the Cowboys waived Terrell Owens this March. Romo still has Jason Witten and Roy Williams, and he'll still go vertical regularly. But for all his madness, T.O. was an incredible fantasy producer. Romo is still a fantasy asset, and although he's 29, he's only just finished his third season as a starter, so he may get better. But any way you slice it, his weapons are worse.
8. Matt Ryan, Atl QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics265/43434401611551041186
2009 Projections290/46736842514601140230
2009 Outlook: The way to beat Ryan as a rookie was to confuse him with zones; his three poorest outings of 2008 came against Cover 2 defenses. We doubt he'll fall prey to that same affliction this year, because Ryan has proved he's a quick study. And while there's no question that he benefited from one of the league's most dominant rushing attacks last season, we think the Falcons will get a bit more balanced in '09 as defenses adjust to take on Michael Turner. For instance, we don't think Ryan will be only 18th in pass attempts this year; Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey will loosen the reins a bit and let Ryan show off his big arm. Provided he eventually ends his holdout, Roddy White is a true playmaking No. 1 receiver, and there are enough other weapons here, including Hall of Fame-caliber tight end Tony Gonzalez, that Ryan looks like a fantasy quarterback at the beginning of a long ascendance.
9. Matt Schaub, Hou QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics251/3803043151031682169
2009 Projections322/4873645261441821235
2009 Outlook: In two seasons with the Texans, Schaub has played in 22 of a possible 32 regular-season games, which presents us with the only true knock against him: He hasn't been able to stay healthy. He topped 3,000 yards passing in 2008 despite missing five games, and he and Andre Johnson make one of the most lethal duos in the NFL. In '07, Schaub's averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, which made us like him; in '08, he hiked that number to 8.0, second-best in the game. Houston suddenly has one of the league's scarier offenses and is a top-10 team in terms of emphasizing the pass in play-calling. You'll have to convince yourself that Schaub can finally turn in a full, healthy campaign, but if he does, he could be a serious breakout star in '09.
10. Donovan McNabb, Phi QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics345/57139162311391472231
2009 Projections320/53937492211351602243
2009 Outlook: McNabb started 16 games for the first time since 2003 last year, topped 20 touchdown passes for the first time since '04, and posted a career-high 571 attempts and 3,916 yards. Of course, the campaign wasn't without drama: Week 12 in Baltimore, Andy Reid benched him at halftime, igniting a firestorm. After that fateful Sunday, though, McNabb tossed nine scores and just one interception in five remaining regular-season contests, then led the Eagles to the NFC title game. He doesn't run much anymore, and Reid's offense emphasizes the short passing game, often at the expense of huge days for McNabb. Plus, there's still a sentiment among Philly fans that Donnie Football "can't win the big one," and that he should be shipped out of town. We don't buy it. The main concern with McNabb is health. Other than that, fly Eagles fly.
11. Matt Cassel, KC QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics327/51636932111742712231
2009 Projections315/49835451913853394248
2009 Outlook: After Tom Brady's Week 1 injury, Cassel passed for 3,693 yards, eighth-best in the NFL. Now he's in Kansas City with new head coach Todd Haley, who led the NFL's most pass-heavy offense in Arizona last year. Does Cassel's dream season have the whiff of fluke about it? Maybe a little. He doesn't start a game since high school, and suddenly he's verging on the Pro Bowl? But while he's losing Randy Moss and Wes Welker, he's gaining Dwayne Bowe, which isn't a bad consolation prize. The main knocks we have on Cassel are his lack of consistency on the deep ball and his willingness to hold the ball and take big hits. (His 47 sacks were the most in the NFL in '08.) But the Chiefs will throw a ton, and Cassel's an underrated runner. We like him.
12. Jay Cutler, Chi QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics384/61645262518572002262
2009 Projections326/51537952416612271243
2009 Outlook: Cutler broke out spectacularly in 2008, tossing for 4,526 yards, third-most in the league. He's got one of the NFL's premier cannons and enough cockiness to believe he can make any throw at any time. Alas, his shot at true fantasy glory vaporized when he forced his way out of Denver and into Chicago. He could've had Josh McDaniels, late of the record-setting Patriots offense, but instead he's got conservative Lovie Smith. He could've had Brandon Marshall; instead he's got Devin Hester. The kid is talented, and he'll have his moments; plus, offensive coordinator Ron Turner does like the occasional deep pass. But it's impossible to argue that Cutler is worth more in fantasy leagues as a Bear. His elite receiving weaponry is gone, and he won't fling it 40-plus times every game.
13. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics281/46933011715341012168
2009 Projections287/45733411915351401199
2009 Outlook: Roethlisberger's dip in touchdown passes was predictable: his 32 scores in '07 were heavily influenced by Pittsburgh's inability to run in the red zone. Less expected was Big Ben's sudden drop in downfield passing. He did set a career high in 300-yard games in '08, but his yards per attempt dipped from 7.8 to 7.0, and remember, this is a guy who has two 8.9 yards-per-attempt seasons under his belt. Roethlisberger's underwhelming '08 regular-season numbers can be traced directly to what's become a subpar offensive line, one that allowed Big Ben to be sacked 46 times. As a result, he played injured much of the year, and posted a crummy-looking 17-to-15 TD/INT ratio. His second Super Bowl victory notwithstanding, the true Roethlisberger is probably somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 seasons, which puts him somewhere between a great and an average fantasy quarterback.
14. Carson Palmer, Cin QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics76/13073634638034
2009 Projections330/518381923192940206
2009 Outlook: The machine is dead. Long considered among the league's most potent passing attacks, the Bengals have more questions than answers entering 2009. Palmer played only four games last year before a serious elbow injury sidelined him; rumors abounded that he'd need Tommy John surgery, but team doctors eventually decided rest would be good enough. His favorite possession target, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, is in Seattle. And Chad Ochocinco caught a career-low 53 passes in '08 after begging for a trade last summer. Palmer is still talented, he still wants to go vertical, and until last season he hadn't thrown fewer than 26 touchdowns as a starter. He also has Laveranues Coles for a new target. But he'll have big-time health concerns leading up to training camp. For this year, at least, we wouldn't feel secure with him as our starting fantasy QB.
15. Eli Manning, NYG QBYEARC/AYDSTDINTRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics289/4793238211020101189
2009 Projections304/5123280211429170188
2009 Outlook: Manning began 2008 in the same style as his heroic '07 playoff run: He was an efficient game manager who made big throws when needed and rarely made big mistakes. But in the final five games of the '08 regular season, he tossed three scores, three picks and exceeded 191 pass yards only once, to say nothing of his disastrous playoff performance. The main difference was the departure of gun-wielding Plaxico Burress. Once Burress was gone, defenses didn't respect Eli's deep game, and he struggled. The good news for Manning is that he tossed only 10 picks, after hurling 17, 18 and 20 the previous three seasons. The bad news is that Burress is gone, and his only new target will be rookie Hakeem Nicks. The Giants should be very good, but Manning has an uphill climb to reach elite fantasy status.
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