Complete 2009 Projections
PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
| 1. Steelers D/ST, Pit D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 51 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 223 | 3795 | | 176 | | 2009 Projections | | 50 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 245 | 4046 | | 136 | | 2009 Outlook: Leading the Steelers to their second championship in four years, this defense allowed the fewest points and yards in the league, paced by outside linebackers James Harrison (the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year) and LaMarr Woodley, who combined for 27.5 regular-season and seven postseason sacks. Harrison got a big contract extension this winter, but he's 31 and could be subject to more attention from opposing offenses this year. In addition, five of their six top defensive linemen are over 30, and starting corner Bryant McFadden left for Arizona (he'll be replaced by William Gay). But really, we're picking nits. This unit is so perennially nasty, opposing players stay up nights wondering whether it hurts less to be hit by the side of the helmet that's got the logo on it or the one that's all black. We'd go logo, but then, we're sitting behind a word processor. |
| 2. Giants D/ST, NYG D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 42 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 294 | 4672 | | 122 | | 2009 Projections | | 47 | 20 | 12 | 4 | 234 | 4632 | | 127 | | 2009 Outlook: Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is gone, but the Giants wrecking crew he helped construct is still intact. In fact, as DE Osi Umenyiora returns from a knee injury that cost him all of '08, as reinforcements like DTs Chris Canty (Cowboys) and Rocky Bernard (Seahawks), LB Michael Boley (Falcons) and S C.C. Brown (Texans) arrive, New York seems to have an embarrassment of riches. Where the heck do DE Mathias Kiwanuka and DTs Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield even play? And by letting an overrated guy like S James Butler go, the Giants simply continue to prove they are the best evaluators of defensive talent around. Yes, there are sometimes chemistry concerns when a team has this many moving parts, and a defensive-line rotation this deep can wind up with a couple of players getting their noses out of joint over playing time. But this could also easily be the best defense in football. |
| 3. Titans D/ST, Ten D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 44 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 234 | 4698 | | 166 | | 2009 Projections | | 48 | 15 | 16 | 6 | 290 | 4846 | | 110 | | 2009 Outlook: The Titans lost DT Albert Haynesworth to Washington and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to Detroit, but they return 10 of 11 starters from a defense that finished second in points allowed and created the most turnovers in the NFL. Second-year man Jason Jones will take time off from "The Daily Show" to help replace Haynesworth, and while Tennessee will miss their massive man in the middle, Jones is good. In fact, you can't complain about anyone in the starting lineup, not even CB Nick Harper, whom we've considered eminently burnable in past years. No, the issues the Titans have are depth-related. They're thin at corner and have five of their front seven entering contract years, so injuries and holdouts would hurt this unit more than most. Plus, we're not ready to anoint All-Pro CB Cortland Finnegan one of the game's best just yet. Still, this is absolutely a starting fantasy unit, and a very good one. |
| 4. Ravens D/ST, Bal D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 34 | 26 | 8 | 6 | 244 | 4177 | | 182 | | 2009 Projections | | 30 | 19 | 18 | 5 | 298 | 4453 | | 104 | | 2009 Outlook: The Ravens D has a lot of questions to answer. Ex-coordinator Rex Ryan is now the Jets' head man, and he took LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard and DE Marques Douglas with him. Former starting corner Chris McAlister is gone as is former nickel man Corey Ivy, and Samari Rolle is now merely a backup corner. Of course, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs return, and that's what keeps this unit fantasy-relevant. We actually believe that with CBs Fabian Washington and Domonique Foxworth starting, Baltimore is probably better off than with 2008's aging tandem, and while LB Tavares Gooden might not be Scott, he's a good player. But there are question marks: S Dawan Landry needs to return from a bruised spinal cord, and the jury's out on OLB Jarret Johnson. We don't see this group completely falling off the map, but it's a candidate for a drop-off. There's no need to reach for them in your draft. |
| 5. Vikings D/ST, Min D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 45 | 12 | 13 | 3 | 333 | 4679 | | 128 | | 2009 Projections | | 44 | 18 | 14 | 2 | 336 | 4794 | | 108 | | 2009 Outlook: The Vikes were a consensus No. 1 fantasy defense in '08, and a lot of drafters reached for them, which goes to show you: Don't do that. While defenses aren't quite as random as say, kickers, overpaying for the "best" rarely works out. In Minnesota's case, the front four -- including Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams -- was terrific. But the secondary picked off only 12 passes and allowed 215.6 pass yards per game. CBs Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin have big names but don't make many big plays, and FS Darren Sharper was a shell of his former self. Now Sharper is gone, and the Vikings think they've got a better tandem with FS Madieu Williams, a cover guy, and SS Tyrell Johnson, who's better than Sharper in run support. This unit will bottle the run and get sacks, but can it improve on 20.8 points allowed per game, just 13th-best in the NFL? And will the Williamses really have their StarCaps-related suspensions delayed all year? |
| 6. Eagles D/ST, Phi D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 48 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 289 | 4389 | | 167 | | 2009 Projections | | 44 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 250 | 4699 | | 136 | | 2009 Outlook: Here's hoping Eagles fans are still satisfied with that huge Asante Samuel signing from a couple of years ago, because he's one of the only guys in this secondary they'll recognize in '09. Safeties Brian Dawkins and Sean Considine and CB Lito Sheppard are gone, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Sheldon Brown had long since passed Sheppard, Ellis Hobbs comes over from New England, Quintin Mikell proved he's superior to Considine, and Philly signed S Sean Jones from Cleveland to help replace Dawkins. The reason you'll be glad to own the Eagles D, though, comes in the front seven. This unit blitzes like crazy (Philly was third with 48 sacks in '08) with star DE Trent Cole and a legion of talented ends who thrive on pressure like Andy Reid thrives on Twinkies. They'll miss Stewart Bradley, who's out for the year at linebacker. But in fantasy, attacking is good, and nobody believes in attacking more than the Eagles. |
| 7. Jets D/ST, NYJ D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 41 | 14 | 16 | 6 | 356 | 5270 | | 129 | | 2009 Projections | | 37 | 16 | 18 | 5 | 334 | 5075 | | 105 | | 2009 Outlook: Who knew the road from Cleveland to Baltimore ran through the Meadowlands? Incoming Jets head man Rex Ryan brought along LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard and DE Marques Douglas from his old gig with the Ravens, while new Browns boss Eric Mangini toted LBs Eric Barton and David Bowens, DLs C.J. Mosley and Kenyon Coleman, S Abram Elam and CB Hank Poteat away from Gotham. The Jets certainly got the better end of that exchange, and that's to say nothing of two-time Pro Bowler Lito Sheppard filling in the gaping hole opposite stud CB Darrelle Revis. Scott and David Harris become one of the premier inside linebacking duos in the NFL, and NT Kris Jenkins should be recovered from the bad back that caused him to falter at the end of '08. There are a couple of noticeable holes here on the outside, especially since Calvin Pace will be suspended for the season's first four games, but Ryan's Baltimore record was impeccable. The Jets will blitz like crazy and dominate a lot of offenses in '09. |
| 8. Dolphins D/ST, Mia D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 39 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 317 | 5265 | | 119 | | 2009 Projections | | 38 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 323 | 5600 | | 98 | | 2009 Outlook: Joey Porter followed up an awful first season in Miami with a career year, finishing second in the NFL with 17.5 sacks and teaming with Channing Crowder to form perhaps the chattiest inside linebacker tandem in the league. Nearly as surprising, Will Allen leaped off the scrap heap to post a tremendous year as a No. 1 cover corner, something the Dolphins have lacked for years. As Bill Parcells says, we're not ready to get out the anointing oil just yet. We're confused about the combination of Gibril Wilson and Yeremiah Bell at safety (neither can really cover), we aren't fully sold on the defensive ends, and CB Eric Green was awful for the Cardinals last year. Still, these guys have a couple of big rookie corners, are stout against the run, should create sacks and force just enough turnovers to make them worth considering as a starting fantasy defense. |
| 9. Panthers D/ST, Car D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 37 | 12 | 13 | 2 | 329 | 5299 | | 107 | | 2009 Projections | | 40 | 17 | 13 | 2 | 331 | 5158 | | 100 | | 2009 Outlook: Julius Peppers wanted out. The Panthers franchised their big defensive end this winter, but Peppers said he wanted to play in a 3-4 defense, and wanted a goldmine, Haynesworth-esque long-term deal at age 28. But Carolina didn't swing a deal and instead signed Peppers for a massive one-year tender offer. That'll help a defensive end unit that's bursting with good players, including rookie Everette Brown. Unfortunately, while DT Damione Lewis has reinvented himself as a one-gap player, his running mate, Maake Kemoeatu, is out for the year with a torn Achilles'. Now, Jon Beason is a beast at middle linebacker, and CB Richard Marshall is better than Ken Lucas, last year's starter. But it'll be much harder to replace Kemoeatu. Expect the Panthers to get sacks, but they should be weaker against the run this year. |
| 10. Bears D/ST, Chi D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 28 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 350 | 5355 | | 132 | | 2009 Projections | | 28 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 365 | 5395 | | 64 | | 2009 Outlook: Don't believe the hype. For the second straight year, this unit just wasn't very good, and for the first time since 2002, it finished in the league's bottom half in both points and yards allowed. LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs have proven in two straight campaigns that if the front four can't get a push, they're not particularly effective. While defensive linemen like Tommie Harris, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye are talented, their effort is sporadic. Would you believe the Bears forced the fewest fumbles in the league last year? Add to that an inconsistent secondary (CB Nathan Vasher is always hurt and was often benched last year for poor tackling), and you get a truly underperforming unit. We absolutely don't rule out a return to glory under new DL coach Rod Marinelli. But right now calling the Bears a top-10 fantasy defense is a stretch. |
| 11. Packers D/ST, GB D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 27 | 22 | 6 | 9 | 380 | 5349 | | 119 | | 2009 Projections | | 29 | 15 | 16 | 5 | 358 | 5395 | | 75 | | 2009 Outlook: New defensive coordinator Dom Capers brings a 3-4 to Green Bay, a scheme that will change the role of its best player, Aaron Kampman. Kampman has 37 sacks the past three years as a defensive end, but now he's the SAM outside linebacker, opposite rookie Clay Matthews. If he can make the transition, we like the switch, considering Green Bay's personnel. LB A.J. Hawk is a bust in pass coverage, and now he can focus on blitzing and playing the run. LB Nick Barnett is coming off a torn ACL, and now he won't have to cover the entire field. Rookie B.J. Raji will be a run-stopping force at defensive end (though we're not positive if there's a true two-gap defensive tackle on this roster), and the safeties are stout enough to give adequate run support. Are CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson overrated? They are. But Tramon Williams can step right in. Watch Kampman, because if he holds up, the Packers are a sleeper D. |
| 12. Patriots D/ST, NE D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 31 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 309 | 4944 | | 90 | | 2009 Projections | | 30 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 347 | 4826 | | 92 | | 2009 Outlook: When Tom Brady went down, disaster was supposed to befall the Patriots. Little did we know it would be a defensive disaster. Asante Samuel's departure left a mammoth hole at corner, one the team never came close to filling with the godawful likes of Deltha O'Neal and Jonathan Wilhite. Good passing offenses killed them. The Pats realized their mistake and inked veteran corners Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden this winter. Those guys aren't great, but neither are they automatically toast. New England will get help creating pressure from the edge from Adalius Thomas -- who returns from injury -- and ex-Raider Derrick Burgess, and a defensive line of Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren is still one of the league's best. Expect a comeback from a unit that's getting younger from the inside out, and features Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo. |
| 13. Redskins D/ST, Was D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 24 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 296 | 4621 | | 77 | | 2009 Projections | | 36 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 318 | 4851 | | 90 | | 2009 Outlook: Sure, the Redskins paid too much for Albert Haynesworth, but he's a beast and, more importantly, a playmaker. Even as Washington was allowing the fourth-fewest yards and sixth-fewest points in the NFL in '08, they ranked just 28th in sacks and 27th in turnovers. Haynesworth has 15 sacks as a defensive tackle the past two seasons, and crushes the run, too. But before you run out and make the Redskins your starting fantasy D, take a look at those defensive ends. Andre Carter? Renaldo Wynn? Phillip Daniels again? Yikes, they're old. Rookie SAM linebacker Brian Orakpo brings hope, but that's a lot of pressure for a kid. Plus the man starting alongside Haynesworth, Cornelius Griffin, is 33, and any time you've entrusted your fantasy defense to CB DeAngelo Hall, it hasn't gone well. This unit is intriguing. But it also could conceivably crash around Haynesworth's well-paid ears. |
| 14. Cowboys D/ST, Dal D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 59 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 365 | 4709 | | 104 | | 2009 Projections | | 50 | 11 | 13 | 3 | 381 | 5099 | | 82 | | 2009 Outlook: After a season of sideshows, the Cowboys rid themselves of Pacman Jones and Tank Johnson for less nickname-intensive players. DE DeMarcus Ware is a stallion who led the NFL with 20 sacks, and the attention Ware gets helps other guys like NT Jay Ratliff get a lot of singled-up looks. Losing Chris Canty hurts, but DE Igor Olshansky is a less-expensive replacement, and Keith Brooking will illustrate whether he has anything left at middle linebacker (or be replaced by rookie Jason Williams). But where Dallas imploded last year was in the secondary: Terence Newman couldn't stay healthy, and the team accounted for just eight picks. We like SS Gerald Sensabaugh as a replacement for Roy Williams, but the corner depth still looks crummy to us. You'll still get sacks out of this team (they led the NFL with 59 last year), but they won't be an elite turnover or points-allowed unit. |
| 15. Chargers D/ST, SD D/ST | YEAR | | SCK | INT | FR | RTD | PA | YA | | PTS |  | 2008 Statistics | | 28 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 347 | 5599 | | 92 | | 2009 Projections | | 37 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 346 | 5405 | | 85 | | 2009 Outlook: Sure, Shawne Merriman missed the year with torn ligaments in his knee, but can we really blame the Chargers' putrid pass defense on his absence? (Answer: No.) CB Antonio Cromartie was injured and regularly toasted, S Clinton Hart played awfully, and LB Stephen Cooper led the team in picks. The end result was a squad that allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL, and the departure of DE Igor Olshansky to Dallas doesn't help. Then again, the return of Merriman and his 12.5 sacks from '07 could cure a lot of ills. That year, San Diego generated 42 sacks; in '08, they managed only 28. This unit was counted as one of fantasy's best entering last year, so we're not ready to completely write them off. Merriman and Shaun Phillips are playmakers, and rookie Larry English will bolster the pass rush. But to be safe, you should only consider them deep-league starting material. |
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