Complete 2009 Projections
The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | QB | RB | RB/WR | WR | TE | D/ST | K
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PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
1. Adrian Peterson, Min RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics36317604.810211250233
2009 Projections34117015.011231843272
2009 Outlook: Peterson has doubters. Will he come out in passing situations? Will he produce many negative-yardage plays? Will he get dinged up? Yes, yes and yes. But "All Day" has the off-the-charts size/speed combination and knack for massive, game-changing plays that no current NFL running back can match. Sure, he "only" tied for eighth in yards per carry (4.8) and rushing touchdowns (10) in 2008, and yes, he did fumble nine times (losing four). But in winning his first rushing title, Peterson had 11 games with at least 20 carries, a usage pattern that makes him mega-consistent. Plus, he enters '09 vowing to be bigger and stronger, which could allow him to stay on the field in pass protection more often. And he's 24. Only Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown rushed for more yards in their first two seasons. More touchdowns will come, pairing nicely with all that glorious yardage. Don't get clever.
2. Michael Turner*, Atl RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics37716994.5176410265
2009 Projections35815744.4144270243
2009 Outlook: In his first season as a Falcon, Turner exceeded even the most wildly optimistic expectations, scoring 17 times and rushing for 1,699 yards. Because he sat in San Diego for four seasons, Turner is a young 27, and Atlanta's offensive line was a revelation that should only get stronger in '09. Turner is a terrific player. We like him, but he's not without risk because of his usage. Turner had a league-high 376 regular-season carries in '08, which renders him vulnerable to the "Curse of 370." Startlingly few backs have submitted great seasons after a single year with that many carries. Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Ricky Williams and Jamal Lewis have all fallen prey to the curse in the past five years. So while Turner looks terrific, don't be fooled into believing he's not without risk.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics1978244.212625652203
2009 Projections24311424.711656062252
2009 Outlook: Are we nuts in ranking him so high? MJD topped 100 yards rushing in only two games last year. He never has exceeded 1,000 rushing yards in a season. He averaged only 4.2 yards per carry. Plus, he's a Keebler elf! Relax. Jones-Drew's fantasy landscape has changed now that Fred Taylor is gone from Jacksonville. The Jags gave MJD more than 12 carries just five times in 2008, and he still ran for 12 touchdowns (and scored two more on catches). Despite his diminutive stature, Jones-Drew is perhaps the NFL's best goal-line back; all but one of his ground scores last season came from inside the 10. And because he's a terrific receiving option -- he was third in the league in running back targets, just two targets behind the leaders -- MJD doesn't come out in long-yardage situations. It's rare to find a three-down back whose skills align perfectly with what fantasy players need: touchdowns and catches. But Jones-Drew fits that profile.
4. Matt Forte, Chi RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics31612383.98634774225
2009 Projections32712103.79534582232
2009 Outlook: Strategy met opportunity, and the result was a shockingly good rookie year for Forte. The archconservative Bears loved what they saw out of him right away, so much so that they dumped Cedric Benson before the season began, realizing that Forte's plugging capabilities as a runner, his soft hands as a receiver and his fine blocking skills made him a prototypical every-down NFL back. Unlike other guys high in our rankings, Forte isn't a game-breaker. But he tied LaDainian Tomlinson for the league lead in receiving targets by a running back, plus was fourth in carries and seventh in yards. The Bears also brought in Jay Cutler, so Forte should see fewer eight-man fronts, which probably counterbalances concerns that Chicago will become a bit less of a running team. There might not be a surer bet for 300 carries and 50 catches in all of football.
5. Steven Jackson, StL RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics25410434.17403791175
2009 Projections31613604.310434001242
2009 Outlook: On a per-game basis, Jackson continues to be a fantasy force. But he missed at least a majority of five contests in 2008 because of a quad injury, after losing part of '07 thanks to a torn groin and injured back. So worrisome have these injuries become that it's tough to remember that Jackson registered the NFL's fifth-most yards from scrimmage in a single season back in '06. And if he hadn't come back with such oomph at the end of '08, maybe we'd be more freaked out. But Jackson carried it 62 times for 169 yards in last season's final two games. He also gets Jason Brown, a tremendous free-agent signee, to play center in front of him, second overall pick Jason Smith at tackle and a good lead-blocking fullback in Mike Karney. We have every expectation that if Jackson stays healthy, he can be fantasy's No. 1 player. But he's not for the faint of heart.
6. DeAngelo Williams, Car RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics27415185.518221212272
2009 Projections29014375.011201172232
2009 Outlook: Five years from now, when we look back at the 2008 season, will we be shocked and chagrined that of all people, DeAngelo Williams led running backs in fantasy points? Put it this way: If the Panthers thought they had one of the best backs in the league in Williams, why did they spend a 2008 first-round pick on Jonathan Stewart? Williams was ungodly good in the season's second half: 892 yards rushing, 15 touchdowns and two four-TD games. He runs behind a road-grading O-line, and is only 26 years old. So why doesn't he merit top-5 consideration? Well, it's all about Stewart. As a rookie, Stewart struggled to stay healthy, a problem that has resurfaced again in training camp, yet still siphoned off 183 carries, 833 yards and 10 touchdowns. Williams is the starter, yes, but Carolina is infamous for splitting backfield duties (remember when Williams teamed with DeShaun Foster?). Stewart will be an unfortunate and possibly increasing drain on Williams' prodigious value.
7. Chris Johnson, Ten RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics25112284.99432601192
2009 Projections27213354.910553203243
2009 Outlook: We believe. When Johnson came out of East Carolina, we loved his speed (he was the '08 Draft Combine's fastest player) but worried he didn't have enough shiftiness. We were wrong. He's never going to be a grinder, but when he gets the ball in space, he's deadly. Among backs with at least 250 carries last year, Johnson had the NFL's second-highest yards-per-carry average (4.9), had four runs of 30 yards or longer, and only had two games where he failed to break a run for at least 11 yards. He might've been fantasy's MVP if not for LenDale White, who had 15 scores, 12 of which came from inside the three. But Tennessee's coaching staff seems worn out by White's off-field act, and there's been speculation that the offense may become a bit less conservative in '09. Johnson seems in line for an even bigger role, which will easily make him a No. 1 fantasy back.
8. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics29211103.811524261212
2009 Projections29411563.911564783246
2009 Outlook: On the one hand, in 2008, Tomlinson produced his fewest touchdowns in a season since his rookie year and his fewest rushing yards and attempts ever. On the other hand, he still eclipsed 1,100 yards, scored double-digit touchdowns and tied for the most pass targets among running backs. Some will claim he's cooked, while others will claim he's undervalued. By our ranking, you know which camp we belong to. There are so many factors working against LT. He's 30. He has Darren Sproles, who was clearly the more effective player by the end of '08, pushing him for playing time. He has gotten hurt in two straight seasons now. Coach Norv Turner can whistle past the graveyard, telling reporters he thinks Tomlinson will win this season's rushing title, but the fact is that the Chargers nearly cut LT this winter. Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Priest Holmes, Ahman Green ... history tells us not to blow top-5 picks on guys with warning signs like this.
9. Frank Gore, SF RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics24010364.36433732173
2009 Projections26811844.48513751209
2009 Outlook: Turned out offensive coordinator Mike Martz wasn't the tonic Frank Gore needed. In an offense that passed 56 percent of the time in '08, Gore managed only 4.3 yards per carry, compared to 5.2 in his glory season of 2006, plus he missed two games because of an ankle injury. Head coach Mike Singletary and new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye have promised to transform the 49ers into a run-first crew, which sounds better. Gore is just 26, still has tremendous acceleration and a punishing style, and absolutely could be the horse the new coaches want to ride. But forgive us for not jumping for joy about injury-plagued Marvel Smith at right tackle, an interior line that has proven little or the fact that the team drafted Glen Coffee in the third round this spring. Plus, Gore has never exceeded eight rushing scores in a season. We admit he's tantalizing, but our patience is wearing thin.
10. Brandon Jacobs, NYG RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics21910895.0156360190
2009 Projections20210025.0124270174
2009 Outlook: Jacobs' massive size makes him a new kind of NFL power back, and in 2008 he finally lived up to his hype. After scoring just four rushing touchdowns in 2007, he scored 15 times, and 12 of those touchdowns came on runs from inside the 3-yard line. He also maintained the same awesome 5.0 yards per carry he managed in '07, and eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season. Our lingering concerns over Jacobs involve his health. A year after missing five contests because of knee, ankle and hamstring injuries, Jacobs missed nearly four games in '08 with another knee problem. The departure of 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Ward from the Giants' backfield might be both a blessing and a curse; it could lead to more carries for Jacobs (Ahmad Bradshaw figures to be his new understudy), but it also subjects him to more pounding. But hey, there are no sure things among fantasy rushers. We don't mind taking a chance on Jacobs.
11. Steve Slaton, Hou RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics26812824.89503771210
2009 Projections28813504.76544282225
2009 Outlook: Slaton is tiny and isn't a burner ... so how did this happen? How did he go from a 2008 draft afterthought (the Texans took him with the 89th pick) to a more productive fantasy player than LaDainian Tomlinson? Right place, right time, we guess. The Houston backfield was laden with injury-prone veterans, and Slaton features a cutback running style the Texans prized. Behind improved zone blocking, Slaton was decisive with his cuts, and in the process helped the Texans improve from No. 22 to No. 13 in the league in rushing. However, even coach Gary Kubiak admits he's nervous about a guy generously listed at 5-foot-7 being his only viable runner. Kubiak contends he'll pair Slaton with a bigger, short-yardage specialist, which could certainly mean a decrease in goal-line opportunities for Slaton. Still, he catches the ball well and is a terrific open-field runner. He has established himself among the fantasy big boys.
12. Clinton Portis*, Was RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics34214874.39282180205
2009 Projections29712064.19211980193
2009 Outlook: Portis started strong in 2008, with 944 rushing yards and seven scores in the season's first eight games. But in Washington's final five games, he rushed for only 281 yards on 98 carries, and didn't manage a single run over 15 yards. So while Portis' workload has been extremely consistent during his time as a Redskin -- when he has played a full season, he has not had fewer than 325 carries in a season -- one wonders if it should be. Even in the kind of effective tandem Joe Gibbs once imagined between Portis and Ladell Betts, Portis would still be the fantasy stud because he's a great goal-line player, and has at least nine touchdowns in five of his seven pro seasons. But we're not convinced the Redskins see their backfield the same way we do. Our worries about Portis wearing down cause us to consider him a borderline fantasy first-rounder.
13. Marion Barber, Dal RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics2388853.77524172169
2009 Projections2239894.411443502211
2009 Outlook: We were bashed early in 2008 for our supposed lack of adequate Barber love (we rated him ninth among rushers), as Barber scored five times in Dallas' first three games. But thereafter, the cows came home to roost, or whatever it is cows of ill omen do. Injuries caused Barber to post just 885 rushing yards and 3.7 yards per carry. Our concerns were justified: Barber's vicious rushing style isn't suited for full-time use. Now that the Cowboys have Felix Jones and Tashard Choice available as options, it's possible the team will view Barber as their primary fourth-quarter and goal-line guy, as they did when Julius Jones was around. That's still a valuable role (Barber scored 16 and 12 all-purpose touchdowns, respectively, in '06 and '07), so we still view Barber as a No. 1 fantasy back. He might even be undervalued this year. But you can forget that talk of him being elite.
14. Brian Westbrook*, Phi RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics2339364.09544025209
2009 Projections2008104.17564534192
2009 Outlook: We love Westbrook's grit and hands as much as anyone, but so many warning signs are gathering around this guy, he might as well have a Wile E. Coyote tattoo. He turns 30 before Week 1. He's coming off a knee injury that made him a shell of himself down the stretch in '08 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery. He saw his yards per carry drop from 4.6 in '07 to 4.0 last season. His offensive line is in flux, with tackles Jon Runyan and Tra Thomas gone from Philly, but Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews climbing aboard. And the Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy, a Westbrook clone who could steal touches. Then, in June, comes news of "debridement" surgery on his ankle that might have him miss all of training camp and the preseason. He's supposed to be back for Week 1, but we'll see. Westbrook scored 14 times last year, but he also has 1,247 carries' worth of tread on his tires over the past seven seasons. For where we think you'd have to draft Westbrook to get him, we wouldn't draft him.
15. Kevin Smith, Det RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics2389764.18392860161
2009 Projections28411464.06342462186
2009 Outlook: Behind arguably the NFL's worst offensive line and with worn-out veteran Rudi Johnson snaking some of his playing time, Smith nevertheless impressed in the second half of 2008, with 708 yards, 3.8 yards per carry and five scores. He also proved he's one of the league's better young receivers at his position, with 39 catches on 54 targets. Johnson is gone and Maurice Morris has arrived in Detroit, but the Lions expect Smith to be their main back. He was a one-cut rusher in college at Central Florida, and the fact that new offensive coordinator Scott Linehan plans on keeping a zone-blocking system in place bodes well. It's hard to get too excited about anyone on a team that went 0-16 last season, especially since the Lions won't have an experienced, competent hand at quarterback. But Smith should be worthwhile as a fantasy starter in '09.
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