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Complete 2013 Projections

The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K | FLEX
     
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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
31. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics1537179811.2400099
2013 Projections15079125615.97000167
2013 Outlook: Neither injury nor diminished skills explain Fitzgerald's disastrous '12 season, in which he finished 21st in receptions and 35th in receiving yards among WRs. It was all about the QB. Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley and Brian Hoyer combined for a 55.4 percent completion rate, 11 TD passes and 21 INTs. Drafting Fitz this season is a vote that new Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians can solve Arizona's signal-calling mess. Maybe Carson Palmer is the answer; we're not convinced his elbow ever recovered to pre-injury strength, but at least you can be sure he and Arians will combine to take shots. Anyway, we're buying low in Fitz: He's way too physically gifted and mentally tough not to bounce back.
32. Montee Ball, Den RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics----------------
2013 Projections24710374.2814981162
2013 Outlook: The Broncos made Ball a second-round pick in April's draft, and cleared up their backfield in the process. The days of Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno as major factors in Denver are most likely behind us: We'd expect to see McGahee released this summer, and Moreno is returning from a knee scope probably to a backup role. Ball's collegiate workload was intense1,001 touches, to be exactso maybe his long-term upside is curbed. But for one year, as Peyton Manning's feature back, Ball looks like a TD maker and a strong pass blocker. Ronnie Hillman will be a factor, especially in passing situations. But Ball is our nominee for this season's Fantasy Rookie of the Year.
33. Wes Welker, Den WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics174118135411.562200163
2013 Projections13592117012.762160154
2013 Outlook: It was pretty easy when Welker was in New England. You just penciled him in for 110 catches and 1,200 yards every year. But now he's in Denver, sharing the receiving spotlight with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, and things feel less certain. For sure, Peyton Manning loves to throw it to the slot: Heck, he gave fading Brandon Stokley 57 targets there last year. But the Broncos' outside weapons are so dangerous. Can we really assume Welker will approach the 160-plus targets per season he routinely saw from Tom Brady? We downgraded Welker a bit from his Patriots days, and we'd draft Thomas ahead of him. But he's still a fantasy starter, and should continue to be a PPR monster.
34. Darren Sproles, NO RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics482445.11756677131
2013 Projections593135.32836967154
2013 Outlook: Sproles is the most dangerous receiving RB in the NFL: During his time in New Orleans, he's caught 5.6 passes for 47.5 yards per game with 14 receiving TDs, all easily NFL highs among RBs. An utter beast in PPR leagues, Sproles deserves to be well regarded in standard leagues, too, because no matter whether Mark Ingram or Pierre Thomas gets handed the rock, there's always a place in the game plan for Sproles' catches. In 18 of 28 games with the Saints, he's finished with double-digit fantasy points. That kind of week-to-week safety is tough to find among RBs. With Sean Payton returning in '13, Sproles will continue to be devastating in the passing game.
35. Victor Cruz, NYG WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics14386109212.710000162
2013 Projections13080104313.08000152
2013 Outlook: Cruz consolidated his breakout '11 season with a not-quite-as-good '12, but he established his bona fides as an every-season fantasy threat. With Mario Manningham gone from Gotham and Hakeem Nicks battling a knee injury all year, Cruz was New York's only consistent WR threat. He had to shoulder more possession routes and fewer seam routes, and as a result his big plays diminished: Cruz went from a league-high 17 plays of 25-plus yards two years ago to 10 such plays in '12. He was actually on pace for a phenomenal campaign through seven weeks but ran out of gas as Eli Manning slumped. If Nicks can get healthy, Cruz's workload might drop a bit, but that might help his big-play swag return.
36. Rob Gronkowski, NE TEYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics795579014.411000139
2013 Projections1007097814.013000173
2013 Outlook: The Gronk is open even when he's covered. He might be the most lethal red-zone weapon in NFL history; he has 29 red-zone TDs over the past three years, nine more than any other player. And despite the fact that he missed most of 2012's final six games, he still finished second in fantasy points among TEs. The downside? He does get hurt: He was hobbled in Super Bowl XLVI with a high-ankle sprain, and he broke his arm last year. That most recent injury has caused problems this offseason, requiring additional surgery that may put training camp or even regular-season games in jeopardy for Gronk. Make sure you check on his health before you draft him.
37. Marques Colston, NO WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics13283115413.910000166
2013 Projections11977106513.88000150
2013 Outlook: As the seasons have gone by, Colston has slowed down. But the effects of his many leg injuries and his 30 years on planet Earth are lessened by the fact that he annually runs more than half his routes from the slot. This often makes him a glorified tight end in the Saints' offense, while the younger, spryer Jimmy Graham actually plays further down the field. It works. Every year he hasn't missed significant playing time, Colston has finished between 8th and 18th among fantasy WRs. There's no reason that can't continue as long as Drew Brees is slinging it. While Colston's ceiling is lower than many of the WRs ranked around him, his week-to-week safety is worth a lot.
38. Michael Crabtree*, SF WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics12685110513.09180159
2013 Projections0000.000000
2013 Outlook: Crabtree suffered a torn Achilles in May and will be out up to six months, putting a possible return sometimes in late November and excluding him from draft consideration in one-year leagues.
39. DeMarco Murray, Dal RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics1616634.14352510104
2013 Projections1979754.95372890151
2013 Outlook: Murray has missed nine of 32 NFL games with leg injuries. It's too early in his career to call him soft -- after all, his rookie campaign was cut short by a broken leg -- but the fact is that Murray arrived in Dallas with a collegiate reputation for missing time. When he's out there, Murray fills out the uniform impressively: At 227 pounds he can play the banging role but he's also nimble in space with very good hands. Sixteen games of starting work for Murray would likely result in a superstar season. Maybe his third year will be the charm.
40. Reggie Wayne, Ind WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics194106135512.851-50158
2013 Projections17096121012.65000149
2013 Outlook: Last year, we badly underestimated what Wayne had left in the tank. He wound up third in the NFL in targets, fifth in catches and seventh in receiving yards as Andrew Luck proved ready to rock. But Wayne also fell off in December (in that month, he tied for 23rd in WR receptions) and ceded some production to deep threat T.Y. Hilton. And now Bruce Arians has left Indy, so play-calling duties will fall to West-Coast-offense devotee Pep Hamilton. We won't repeat our '12 mistake and proclaim Wayne cooked. But it's a mistake to call him bulletproof at age 34. Expect a lesser season in '13, but expect enough production to keep Wayne steadily in your lineup.
41. Jordy Nelson, GB WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics734974515.27000114
2013 Projections11375114015.27000154
2013 Outlook: Nelson injured a hamstring in Week 7 last year and was never healthy thereafter: He battled knee, ankle and foot problems through the rest of the season. He missed four games, and when he played was a shell of his normally explosive self. With Greg Jennings gone, Aaron Rodgers' top three WRs will be Nelson, Randall Cobb and James Jones; certainly in '12, Nelson was the least-valuable fantasy commodity of that group. But we remember his 1,263-yard, 15-TD campaign from '11 when Nelson made 16 plays of 25-plus yards. He's officially the burner in this Green Bay offense now, and while he probably won't lead the Pack in targets, he very well could go back to leading them in TDs.
42. Mike Wallace, Mia WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics1196483613.18570123
2013 Projections12670110815.875470154
2013 Outlook: Wallace is one of the NFL's fastest players but he isn't only a burner: In '12, 64 of his 119 targets traveled 20 yards or fewer in the air. Now that he's signed with the Dolphins, his limitations involve questions about Ryan Tannehill, who had 12 TD passes and 13 INTs in his rookie campaign. The truth is, though, that Tannehill has a strong arm and Joe Philbin will take deep shots, meaning Wallace can win you a fantasy game in any given week. But he can also disappear, as is always the case on a team with a very young signal caller and questionable supplemental aerial weapons like Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson. Mr. Sixty Minutes will be feast-or-famine on South Beach.
43. Aaron Hernandez, NE TEYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics84514839.5515074
2013 Projections1106986412.58000134
2013 Outlook: We're done fretting that Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski play the same position for the same team. The Patriots make it work. Especially now that Wes Welker is gone, we expect Hernandez to play out of the slot a ton, and get as many targets as ever. The more concerning aspect of his fantasy value is his health: Hernandez missed six games last year and 10 in his three-season NFL career, and needed shoulder surgery this winter. But durability questions aside, Hernandez belongs to his position's upper echelon. He's among the league's scariest open-field threats, and even with The Gronk alongside him in '12, Hernandez saw seven or more targets in a game in seven of his nine healthy contests.
44. Chris Ivory, NYJ RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics402175.42215032
2013 Projections1668555.279570128
2013 Outlook: Ivory leaves a bad situation on a good offense, and lands in a good situation on a bad offense. Known for a couple seasons as the best No. 4 RB in football, this 220-pound power runner has 33 carries of 10-plus yards on his 256 career totes. He was underutilized in New Orleans -- though to be fair he's battled knee, hamstring, foot and concussion problems -- but he should get all the work he could want with the Jets, who traded for him in April. Mike Goodson should be limited to third downs. If Ivory stays healthy, he could be a fantasy star.
45. Reggie Bush, Det RBYEARRUSHYDSAVGTDRECYDSTDPTS
2012 Statistics2279864.36352922159
2013 Projections1637034.32746103155
2013 Outlook: The Lions are a great fit for Bush, provided they don't lean on him too much. Matthew Stafford set an NFL record with 727 pass attempts last year, 144 of which were aimed at RBs far less accomplished than Bush in the throwing game. We expect the majority of those passes to head Bush's way this year, as the former No. 2 overall pick assumes the Jahvid Best role in Detroit's attack. Where the Lions may get in trouble is if they make Bush a feature back. His injury history scares us. We think a pairing where Mikel Leshoure does the banging would be best.
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