Complete 2009 Projections
The default order for player projections is based on ESPN.com's recommended draft rankings, which take into account projected total points as well as upside and risk.

Position: ALL | QB | RB | RB/WR | WR | TE | D/ST | K
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PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
1. Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics15496143114.912000210
2009 Projections15496143014.913000221
2009 Outlook: While Fitzgerald didn't win the receiving yardage title or eclipse 100 regular-season catches in 2008, he's our choice to be 2009's most valuable fantasy receiver. After all, in '08 he tied for the most receiving touchdowns (12), led the NFL in red-zone targets (31) and went on one of the more memorable playoff runs in recent memory: 30 catches, 546 yards and a playoff-record seven scores, all with a broken left thumb and torn cartilage between two fingers. Anquan Boldin is apparently staying in Phoenix, but there'll be plenty of passes to go around; the Cardinals averaged a league-high 39.4 pass attempts per game and also featured the highest percentage of passes versus runs in 2008. The only doubts we have about Fitz involve Kurt Warner's ability to stay healthy for a second straight year. If Warner goes down, all bets would be off (a la "Moss, Randy," circa 2008).
2. Andre Johnson, Hou WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics170115157513.78000197
2009 Projections166109147613.59000201
2009 Outlook: Johnson finally ended his days as a fantasy tease last year, putting it all together to lead the NFL in receptions and receiving yardage, and he finished second in both overall and red-zone targets. Dogged by injuries throughout his six-year career, AJ now knows how to make it through a full 16 games intact. (Oh, yeah, and the bitter aura of having David Carr throw to him is now fully rinsed from him, too.) If there's one troublesome part about owning Johnson, it's that Matt Schaub can't stay healthy. In 2008, during the five games Schaub missed, AJ caught 37 passes for 443 yards (fewer yards per game and per catch) with only two scores. Plus, gun-slinging backup Sage Rosenfels is gone, and underwhelming Dan Orlovsky takes his place. But if Schaub follows Johnson's lead and manages a full slate in '09? Watch out, because you could be talking about the NFL's premier aerial duo.
3. Calvin Johnson, Det WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics15178133117.1123-10196
2009 Projections16181131016.2124210205
2009 Outlook: What more could Megatron have done in 2008? A mammoth physical freak with amazing hands and hang time -- incidentally, he also runs a 4.35 40 -- Johnson flourished in his second season despite the Lions having a gaping hole at quarterback. He had only 14 red-zone targets, mostly because Detroit was rarely in the red zone, and yet managed to tie for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions. He was also the only game in town: Johnson was third in the league in target percentage, as Lions quarterbacks threw it to him on 33.4 percent of their attempts. The switch to Scott Linehan at offensive coordinator is fine news for Megatron, as Linehan likes to throw in the red zone. Sure, some combo of Daunte Culpepper and Matt Stafford under center isn't optimal, but it shouldn't be any worse than the Lions' QB play was in '08.
4. Randy Moss, NE WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics12569100814.611200155
2009 Projections13083120514.513260198
2009 Outlook: A year after setting the NFL single-season record for receiving touchdowns, Moss was devastated by the loss of Tom Brady. Join the club. Matt Cassel was a good replacement, but he never really mastered the deep ball, which is, of course, Moss' specialty. Cassel was much happier and more effective dumping off passes to Wes Welker, who had 150 targets and 111 catches to Moss' 127 and 69. It should also be noted that a league-high 55 percent of New England's passing yardage came after the catch last season. Brady's return should cure what ails ol' Randy. Nobody throws a prettier deep ball than the 2007 NFL MVP, and nobody has better instincts about when to just fling it up there and let No. 81 do his thing. Moss has eight 1,000-yard seasons in his 10-year career, and there's no reason to believe he won't easily chalk up another in '09.
5. Steve Smith, Car WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics12978142118.265400172
2009 Projections14990139015.499640199
2009 Outlook: Smith missed the first two games of 2008 because of a training camp fight with Ken Lucas, then reassumed his role as the most impressive big-play receiver in the league. His 11.01 yards per target were the highest of any wideout with at least 60 targets, so while his touchdown total (six) was its lowest in five seasons, he still managed to finish third in receiving yardage. Most impressive is Smith's style. He continues to be the "mighty mite" nobody can stop, an incredible ball hawk who claws and jumps and beats double-teams, almost no matter what. There's some quarterback uncertainty in Carolina, with Jake Delhomme coming off that shaky '08 playoff loss. Plus, the Panthers had the third highest run percentage in the NFL last year, and look to continue that attack with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in their backfield. But don't worry: Smith will get his.
6. Greg Jennings, GB WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics13980129216.29000178
2009 Projections13079130316.510000190
2009 Outlook: When Aaron Rodgers took the reins in Green Bay, we were concerned the deep passing game might go away. Concern averted. Jennings came out of the gates blazing in 2008, racking up 34 catches for 653 yards and four scores in the Packers' first six games. He hit the occasional rough patch yardage-wise after that, but still accounted for five more touchdowns, making him a top-five fantasy receiver. There's no question he has supplanted Donald Driver as the best offensive weapon on his team, and his 16.2 yards per catch put him fourth in the league among players with at least 50 grabs. He's not super fast and he's not big, but Jennings has amazing open-field instincts and Rodgers' big arm on his side. Green Bay does spread it around to other receivers, but they always seem to come back to Jennings for the big play.
7. Reggie Wayne, Ind WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics13182114514.06000144
2009 Projections14088131915.09000185
2009 Outlook: Wayne's yardage output dropped more than 400 yards from 2007 to 2008 -- and he still finished 10th in the NFL. It seems odd that in a year Marvin Harrison finally fell off the fantasy map, Wayne didn't take better advantage, but teams paid him more attention, and overall the Colts' offense wasn't quite the same beast it had been in the past. In '09, Wayne moves to Harrison's old flanker position, where he'll be Peyton Manning's first read on most plays. That should help him increase his targets from 130 (just 13th in the league). Mostly, though, we simply view Wayne as one of the safest receiver bets around, a guy who is great at getting behind a secondary but also has the finesse game to make things happen in the red zone.
8. Roddy White, Atl WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics14888138215.77240172
2009 Projections16291133714.783170182
2009 Outlook: White, a former first-rounder, was already the poster child for the third-year receiver leap. Now maybe he's the emblem of fourth-year "studliness." In 2008, he finished fourth in receiving yards, seventh in targets and fourth in yards per target among players with at least 100 looks. White and quarterback Matt Ryan established an instant trust, one based on the tremendous ball skills of White, who is in the Steve Smith mode of doing anything to catch a pass. True, Ryan might have been fixated a little too much on White -- a full 34.3 percent of Falcons passes were aimed his way -- but as opposing defenses gird their loins to stop Michael Turner by hook or by crook, we think White continues his sensational play. The only concern you should have about White is his contract: he seems set for a holdout in training camp.
9. Anquan Boldin, Ari WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics12789103811.7119670163
2009 Projections12784115413.787710170
2009 Outlook: Boldin has had quite an eventful year. He was the NFL's best receiver for the first month of 2008, catching 27 passes for 366 yards and five scores in his first four games. Then he suffered a hit so savage from Jets safety Eric Smith that his starting quarterback, Kurt Warner, briefly considered retiring. He returned after missing only two games, was dominant again, then hurt a shoulder and missed Arizona's final two regular-season games. He pulled a hamstring in the Cardinals' wild-card win, missed the divisional round, got into an argument with coordinator Todd Haley on the sidelines of the NFC title game, and, oh by the way, this winter wanted to be traded so he could get a new contract. But it seems Boldin will stay in the desert, so he'll still be part of the offense that earned him his fantasy stripes.
10. Terrell Owens, Buf WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics14069105215.2107330156
2009 Projections15383117414.1109450181
2009 Outlook: All right, T.O. just looks weird in that Bills uni, no? But for better or worse, he's Western New York's problem now. The Cowboys dumped Owens despite him posting three straight years of double-digit touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards receiving, but as we all know, having T.O. on your NFL team means dealing with more off-field drama than Jessica Simpson can shake a stick at. Owens will be 36 in December, but physical conditioning has never been his problem. The larger issue is whether Trent Edwards has the wing to get T.O. the ball where he wants it, and whether the Bills will kowtow to His Highness. He does have a history of making nice his first year in a new city, and in Lee Evans, Buffalo does have a viable threat opposite Owens. We don't see any reason why the double-digit scores or knuckleheaded press conferences need to stop.
11. Dwayne Bowe*, KC WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics15886102211.97000136
2009 Projections16189111412.59110165
2009 Outlook: What would happen if you put a receiver such as Bowe in Arizona's downfield passing attack? We might be about the find out. New Chiefs coach Todd Haley figures to implement some of the same principles he ran with the Cardinals, albeit with Matt Cassel and not Kurt Warner. Cassel isn't as accurate a deep thrower as Warner, and he takes too many hits, but he's going to like his new primary target a lot. Bowe isn't a burner, but he's one of the game's best leapers, and while he rarely broke a long-gainer in 2008, he was steady, and scored seven times despite the presence of Tony Gonzalez. Gonzo is out of town now, which should mean even more red-zone work for Bowe. We think Anquan Boldin makes a mighty nice comparison for this guy.
12. Marques Colston, NO WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics894776016.25000102
2009 Projections10358100217.310000160
2009 Outlook: Let's face it, Colston is basically batting .500 at this point. A stud his rookie year, he disappeared for the first half of 2007 before exploding in the second. Then, disastrously, he tore a thumb ligament in Week 1 of the 2008 season, missed six games, and was basically a fantasy non-factor until December, when he erupted for 306 yards and four scores in the season's final three games. Excuse the whiplash, but we're buying Colston again this summer. He's coming off microfracture surgery, but says he has no lingering issues from last year, and we still believe that had he been healthy, a lot of that juicy production turned in by Lance Moore would've been Colston's. The fact the Saints now appear to have multiple options opposite Colston only enhances his stock. He's now officially an injury risk, but a risk worth taking.
13. Brandon Marshall, Den WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics183104126512.262-40147
2009 Projections12076100413.29140154
2009 Outlook: We know Marshall's nickname is Baby T.O., but does he have to behave so much like the real Owens? Marshall missed a week in 2008 due to a suspension but still led the NFL in targets (181), caught 100 balls for the second straight year and caught a ridiculous 18 balls against the Chargers. But he has more question marks on him this year than the Riddler. He loses Jay Cutler under center, and has to deal with the dubious accuracy of Kyle Orton. Mike Shanahan's system is out and Josh McDaniels' system is in, and while that should bode well for him, you never know. He had hip surgery this winter, then asked to be traded this spring because of unhappiness over his contract. Marshall is a top-five talent, but it would take serious stones to take him among the top five.
14. Wes Welker, NE WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics150111116510.533260128
2009 Projections149111120810.954270152
2009 Outlook: Welker is the ultimate possession receiver, and in 2008 that was just what the Patriots needed most. With Tom Brady out, Matt Cassel was quick with his decisions but inaccurate on deeper passes, meaning his top option was often Welker, who responded with 111 grabs, second in the NFL. It's a bit alarming that his touchdowns went from eight in '07 to three last year, but he could revert to form with Brady back. The larger point is the Patriots want Welker to get the ball in the middle of the field and make plays, and he has done so by catching more passes than anyone in football the past two seasons combined. Touchdowns come and touchdowns go, but a steady stream of productive Sundays is a nice thing to be able to count on. Bump up Welker even higher in a point-per-reception league.
15. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Sea WRYEARTARRECYDSAVGTDRUSHYDSTDPTS
2008 Statistics136929049.84190107
2009 Projections14290100911.282180149
2009 Outlook: In Cincinnati, Houshmandzadeh was a possession receiver who complemented Chad Johnson's deep-threat style and tormented linebackers. But the Seahawks just paid him an awful lot of free-agent money, and they don't figure to settle for 6.6 yards per target (his mark from his final year as a Bengal) from Housh. Indeed, in spring minicamp he lined up at flanker, a more coveted position. That said, flanker in the West Coast offense is quite different from what Housh is used to. Hey, we believe in the guy. He has great hands, and seems like a lock for at least 80 catches and a lot of red-zone looks. But spare us predictions of a huge production spike. Matt Hasselbeck must stay healthy, the Seahawks have to find a consistent running game, other wide receivers will have to step up to take some heat off Housh, and the O-line needs to prove itself. Housh is a fantasy starter in 2009, but he doesn't send us over the moon.
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