Complete 2009 Projections
PROJECTED 2009 SEASON STATS
| 1. Tony Gonzalez, Atl TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 154 | 96 | 1058 | 11.0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 158 | | 2009 Projections | | 123 | 76 | 901 | 11.9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 132 | | 2009 Outlook: Rarely has so much been accomplished so unwillingly. Gonzalez openly campaigned to be traded from the woeful Chiefs before the '08 deadline but nevertheless put up a massive statistical campaign, leading NFL tight ends in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Gonzo now has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons (the third and fourth such campaigns in his career) and can bank on his ticket to Canton. But despite his great '08 and despite the team bringing in Matt Cassel and offensive-minded coach Todd Haley, Gonzalez still wanted out. So now he's in run-oriented Atlanta, where his numbers probably will dip a little. After all, the Falcons threw all of 30 passes to their tight ends last season. Still, Gonzo is so good, we can't help but keep him our No. 1 guy at his position. |
| 2. Jason Witten, Dal TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 121 | 81 | 952 | 11.8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 114 | | 2009 Projections | | 130 | 80 | 905 | 11.3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 126 | | 2009 Outlook: Witten followed up his '07 All-Pro campaign with a less spectacular '08, although this past season didn't lack for drama. After all, Tony Romo broke his pinkie and missed three games, Witten battled ankle, shoulder and rib injuries, and Terrell Owens accused Romo and Witten of being BFFs, which required Romo to pay extra-special attention to Owens. Like, omigod. Anyway, T.O. is gone from Big D, and even in his "down" season, Witten was No. 2 in yardage and targets among tight ends. He's not a huge factor in the red zone; Martellus Bennett got some play from in close in '08 and might continue to do so in '09. But Witten is as steady as they come. We see another 1,000-yard season and high single-digit touchdowns for this coming year, which makes him one of the best tight end bets around. |
| 3. Antonio Gates, SD TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 92 | 60 | 704 | 11.7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 109 | | 2009 Projections | | 107 | 71 | 871 | 12.3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 129 | | 2009 Outlook: In 2008, for the first time in five seasons, Gates failed to eclipse the 100-target mark in San Diego. The Chargers could have used more of him in a down season for LaDainian Tomlinson, but Gates battled hip, foot and ankle injuries all year. He did grab eight scores, second-most among tight ends, and since he's been a full-time starter, he's never had fewer than that mark. The main thing that keeps Gates away from our top tight end spot, though, is too much risk. Gates has taken a pounding in his brief career, and he's been day-to-day far too often during the past two seasons for our taste. You won't find a better red zone guy when he's healthy, and he's well worth owning. But we're too jittery to pull the trigger early on Gates. |
| 4. Dallas Clark, Ind TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 107 | 77 | 848 | 11.0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 112 | | 2009 Projections | | 101 | 68 | 784 | 11.5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 114 | | 2009 Outlook: Clark's touchdown production dropped from 11 in '07 to six in '08, but in most other respects, he was better this past season. First off, he answered the durability questions that have plagued him by playing in all 16 games. He also managed career highs in receptions, receiving yards and targets. And this solid effort came with Peyton Manning hobbled for the season's first month. With Marvin Harrison now out, Clark and his receiving brethren (Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez) figure to see more targets, especially if the failing Colts running game can't return to past glory. Clark definitely is part of the vanguard of the "new" NFL tight end, the kind who wouldn't know a good block if it bit him where the sun doesn't shine. But hey, you don't get points for good blocks in fantasy. |
| 5. Owen Daniels*, Hou TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 101 | 70 | 862 | 12.3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 90 | | 2009 Projections | | 107 | 72 | 888 | 12.3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 112 | | 2009 Outlook: Daniels cracked the 100-target and 70-reception marks for the first time in 2008, and of the 11 tight ends with 50 or more catches, he had the second-highest yards-per-reception mark. So while Daniels hasn't been anything close to an elite touchdown-scoring option in his three-year career, he is a big-time downfield threat in Houston's vertical offense. Much of his value depends on Matt Schaub staying healthy (which is, of course, a somewhat dicey proposition); during Schaub's four-game absence in '08, Daniels managed just seven receptions for 70 yards. But we think the kid is due for a breakout season or at least more scores. For a good downfield receiver, he's got curiously few long touchdowns in his career and no scores of longer than 6 yards in the past two seasons. That'll change in '09. |
| 6. Chris Cooley*, Was TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 111 | 83 | 849 | 10.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 79 | | 2009 Projections | | 110 | 75 | 841 | 11.2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 114 | | 2009 Outlook: Cooley finished 2008 second in tight end receptions and third in targets but had to battle constant red zone double-teams and wound up with just a single touchdown, whereas previously, he had never scored fewer than six in a season. Jim Zorn's offense did require Cooley to block more than he had before, but mostly, Cooley was a victim of the Redskins' awful receiving corps. There just weren't any threats other than Santana Moss and Cooley on this offense, which made them rather easy to defend. The team has hopes for Devin Thomas in '09, and if the Redskins can find anyone to get open opposite Moss, Cooley figures to be a big-time beneficiary. Yes, his '08 season was a fantasy disappointment, but the underlying stats are still there. We have to believe he'll bounce back. |
| 7. Greg Olsen, Chi TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 82 | 54 | 574 | 10.6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 77 | | 2009 Projections | | 97 | 66 | 802 | 12.2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 116 | | 2009 Outlook: Year 1 of Operation Phase Out Desmond Clark has been completed. Whereas Clark led Olsen in targets, catches, yards and touchdowns in 2007, the reverse was true in '08. More often, Clark was a blocker and Olsen was out in pass patterns, especially later in the season. A former first-rounder out of Miami, Olsen showed he has nice hands and a solid ability to get open, plus he seemed to be the tight end of choice in the red zone. The kicker is that the Bears acquired Jay Cutler this spring, and Cutler enjoyed looking for Tony Scheffler when he was in Denver. Chicago should throw more, and Olsen figures to be a prime beneficiary. He's a fantasy starter. |
| 8. Kellen Winslow, TB TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 81 | 43 | 428 | 10.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 55 | | 2009 Projections | | 108 | 70 | 694 | 9.9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 105 | | 2009 Outlook: After making it through two complete seasons in '06 and '07, Winslow's luck zoomed away, and he missed six games with a staph infection and a high-ankle sprain in '08. Amazingly, Winslow will turns 26 in July (it seems like he's been saying dumb stuff to reporters for much longer than that), and this year, he takes his high-maintenance act to Tampa, a team with a new coach and without a big league quarterback. When he's on the field, he's good; he has averaged almost exactly five catches per game in his career. But he also has had knee surgery every year since his rookie campaign. Winslow probably should be drafted as a fantasy starter, but realize that even the Bucs are hedging -- they're keeping Jerramy Stevens around in case the new guy gets hurt. If you draft Winslow, you'd be wise to get a solid backup. |
| 9. Zach Miller, Oak TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 86 | 56 | 778 | 13.9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 77 | | 2009 Projections | | 94 | 69 | 894 | 13.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 113 | | 2009 Outlook: In his second NFL season, playing for a terrible team with an erratic quarterback, Miller finished sixth in receiving yards, seventh in targets and eighth in receptions by a tight end. That got our attention. But the fact that he had the largest yards-per-catch mark of any tight end with more than 42 receptions...that got us excited. After all, the biggest fantasy plays happen down the field, and that's where Miller is comfortable. He scored only once in 2008, but the fact that it was a sweet, deep seam route that Miller took for 63 yards could be a glimpse of the near future. Plus, as much as scattershot JaMarcus Russell has developed "chemistry" with anyone, he's got it with Miller. Watch for a breakout. |
| 10. John Carlson, Sea TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 80 | 55 | 627 | 11.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 86 | | 2009 Projections | | 87 | 55 | 645 | 11.7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 94 | | 2009 Outlook: We loved Carlson's potential as a second-rounder coming out of Notre Dame, and if you look past Seattle's offensive awfulness in '08, Carlson didn't disappoint. Sure, he produced only one 100-yard receiving day and had some predictable ups and downs as departed coach Mike Holmgren tried to knock some sense into his rookie head. But he scored five times, blocked very well and wound up with more catches, yards and scores than fellow rookie Dustin Keller. The hesitation we have when it comes to Carlson for '09 is the Seahawks' offense. With T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the fold to go with Nate Burleson and a cast of several other wideouts, we're concerned Seattle might go three-wide a lot, perhaps at the expense of Carlson. We still view him as a high-upside fantasy entity, though. Pay attention to Seahawks training camp to see how he's being used. |
| 11. Dustin Keller, NYJ TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 78 | 48 | 535 | 11.1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 64 | | 2009 Projections | | 88 | 59 | 674 | 11.4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 97 | | 2009 Outlook: No one jumped for joy more than Keller when the Jets decided to retain offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. In Schottenheimer's offense, Keller isn't required to block very often, and the team's spread formations let him utilize his speed to run routes out of the slot. Keller, an H-back in college, is a Dallas Clark clone who probably will never be much of a blocker, and he slowed way down in his rookie season, grabbing only eight passes on 20 targets in last year's final month. But Chris Baker is gone from Gotham, which means the tight end gig is pretty much Keller's and Keller's alone. And while we normally would be concerned about the Jets' uncertain quarterback situation, inexperienced quarterbacks often check down to their tight ends. Keller looks like a solid fantasy starter to us. |
| 12. Kevin Boss, NYG TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 55 | 33 | 384 | 11.6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 69 | | 2009 Projections | | 66 | 41 | 484 | 11.8 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 84 | | 2009 Outlook: Boss wasn't exactly Jeremy Shockey for the Giants in '08, but is that necessarily a bad thing? You didn't see him gesticulating wildly to Eli Manning when he wasn't getting enough passes, and you didn't hear him pontificating in front of his locker about all manner of nonsense. Instead, Boss scored six touchdowns and became one of the league's premier red zone threats at his position. He finished third among tight ends in red zone targets with 19. We can't say for certain that Boss will double his overall targets in '09 -- which is what he'd need to become a full-blooded fantasy starter -- especially because New York drafted Travis Beckum this spring. Still, Boss should be a touchdown-maker again. |
| 13. Tony Scheffler, Den TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 60 | 40 | 645 | 16.1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | | 77 | | 2009 Projections | | 59 | 43 | 510 | 11.9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 75 | | 2009 Outlook: Scheffler was productive in '08 when he could stay on the field, but he fought a groin injury and wound up with only 40 catches and three scores in Denver's wide-open offense. A good downfield threat, Scheffler led all tight ends in yards per catch, but his 61 targets placed him only 19th in the league. Worse, rumors have abounded this spring that Scheffler could be traded because he isn't a good fit for Josh McDaniels' offense, which relies on a lot of wideouts and a blocking tight end. The fact that Denver rosters blocking specialists and red zone threats Daniel Graham and rookie Richard Quinn indicates that Scheffler probably won't be a fantasy stud this year, either. But his talent is tantalizing. |
| 14. Jeremy Shockey, NO TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 72 | 50 | 483 | 9.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 39 | | 2009 Projections | | 91 | 59 | 617 | 10.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 79 | | 2009 Outlook: How often will we go back to the well with this knucklehead? At least once more, it appears. Shockey battled a severe ankle injury in '08 and failed to get in the end zone even once, thus submitting a second straight fantasy-bust season. For all the hype he's gotten, Shockey has never exceeded seven touchdowns or 900 yards receiving in a single season of his seven-year career, and some Saints fans wanted him cut this winter. But he's got a manageable cap number, so New Orleans brought him back. The fact remains that this is the NFL's gunslingingest offense, and there shouldn't be any reason Shockey can't get a piece of it. It'll take a strong stomach to draft him, but you have to admit it's tempting. |
| 15. Bo Scaife, Ten TE | YEAR | | TAR | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | RUSH | YDS | TD | | PTS |   | 2008 Statistics | | 83 | 58 | 561 | 9.7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 59 | | 2009 Projections | | 86 | 64 | 669 | 10.5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 84 | | 2009 Outlook: Scaife belongs to the stratus of talented tight ends who aren't likely to produce many touchdowns but can help with receptions and yards. He is a sure-handed guy running short routes and evidently doesn't need college teammate Vince Young throwing to him to be effective. Yet in a Titans offense that heavily features the run, it's unlikely he'll reach fantasy stardom any time soon. However, Alge Crumpler's presence in Tennessee -- which we worried might be a drain on both of their fantasy values -- might have turned out to be helpful to Scaife, as Crumpler mainly blocks these days. (Has there ever been a tight end pairing whose names are more fun to say?) Note that rookie Jared Cook also could become a factor in '09. |
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