Complete Week 18 Projections

Position: ALL | QB | RB | WR | TE | D/ST | K | FLEX
2013 Statistics1368295411.610280146
2014 Projections15288105712.082110154
2014 Outlook: It's hard to believe, but Fitz hasn't eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in either of the past two seasons. In fact, he's posted two of the four worst yardage figures among WRs with 130-plus targets over that span. To be sure, the five quarterbacks who've played for Arizona since 2012 certainly share in the blame. With Carson Palmer under center last season, Fitzgerald finished with 146 fantasy points, 16th among WRs -- and even that was propped up by 10 trips to the end zone, his highest mark since 2009. It's hard to count on Fitzgerald to keep his TDs in the double digits, especially as he enters his age-31 season.
2013 Statistics673959215.2400080
2014 Projections956392014.68000140
2014 Outlook: If Gronk could guarantee us 16 games, we'd be tempted to place him atop our TE list. He's that good. In 50 career regular-season contests, he's scored 42 TDs. But he has also undergone eight career surgeries, the latest of which is probably his most serious. He tore his ACL and MCL after a huge hit from T.J. Ward in Week 14, putting Gronk on the clock for 2014 training camp. And frankly, even if he meets a Week 1 deadline, you have to wonder whether the star-crossed Gronk can keep overcoming physical adversity and take NFL-level punishment. We love the guy, but every year he seems to carry more risk.
2013 Statistics184113134611.952190154
2014 Projections15396112911.862190147
2014 Outlook: Garcon was targeted 176 times in 2013, second most in the NFL, and responded by shattering career bests in catches (113) and yards (1,346). He'll continue to make his money off underneath throws; he led all WRs in short-pass receiving yards (795) and scored the most PPR fantasy points off dink-and-dunks (182). Don't expect the addition of DeSean Jackson to completely cannibalize Garcon's production. His skill set dovetails perfectly with Jackson's downfield talents, and first-year coach Jay Gruden shouldn't have any problem finding ample work for both of them.
2013 Statistics28512554.46261891175
2014 Projections23010654.67191760163
2014 Outlook: Last year qualified as Mathews' breakout season, as he set career highs in carries (285) and yards (1,255). But it also provided more of the same: He suffered a high ankle sprain late in the year and was a shell of himself in the playoffs. And now that the Chargers have signed Donald Brown to go along with Danny Woodhead, they have a wealth of alternatives if (and when) Mathews gets hurt again. But there's no debating which San Diego running back has the most value when healthy. Despite less-than-perfect footwork at the line, Mathews offers a rare power/speed combination. If you draft him, just be sure to own some pretty good backups too.
2013 Statistics10571104614.78000141
2014 Projections12685104512.38000150
2014 Outlook: Allen compiled just three catches in the Chargers' first three games, and his rookie season looked like it would be a complete waste. But then the fireworks began. He shot up to borderline WR1 status after notching 138 points the remainder of the season, which ranked 10th among wide receivers over that span. Allen doesn't do much on stretch vertical passes (only 65 yards at that depth), but he makes up for it on passes that travel less than 20 yards (981 yards, tied for eighth among WRs), which happens to be where QB Philip Rivers thrives.
2013 Statistics2019274.62331850109
2014 Projections20110015.05373161165
2014 Outlook: To be clear, Spiller's relatively low ranking isn't a reflection of his disastrous 2013, when the consensus first-round pick finished 28th in fantasy points among running backs. We feel OK chalking up his sluggish numbers to a nagging high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 4. The real concern? The presence of Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown. Despite his advanced age, Jackson was a major workload drain even before Spiller got nicked up, and Brown could add to the thievery in 2014. Spiller has the skill set you want: sprinter's speed, good hands, sweet moves. But for the moment, the depth chart puts a cap on how valuable Spiller can be.
2013 Statistics27611284.19161410166
2014 Projections25911234.38151300169
2014 Outlook: Late in his career, Gore just keeps defying logic. In his age-30 season, he submitted his third straight year of 16 games played and 8 or more rushing TDs. The Niners have preserved Gore by essentially removing him from the game plan in passing situations. And now players like Carlos Hyde, Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore threaten to assume more of the early-down workload too. The touchdowns still figure to be there for a bruiser on a good offense, but it wouldn't be a shock to see Gore's yardage slip.
2013 Statistics1237399813.74000115
2014 Projections12880104213.07000144
2014 Outlook: One positive takeaway from Cruz's disappointing 2013 campaign: His fantasy floor is actually quite high. A depleted Giants WR corps, a late-season injury and all those Eli Manning interceptions meant that Mr. Salsa didn't get to do a single TD dance after Week 4. Not surprisingly, he posted only one double-digit fantasy game over that same span. And yet Cruz ranked among the top 25 WRs in yards (998), targets (121) and receptions (73) -- and was only three points from breaking into the top 25 in fantasy points (115, 28th). The Giants' new West Coast scheme is a perfect fit for Cruz's skill set. He'll be dancing again in no time.
2013 Statistics996371111.3300082
2014 Projections12580100412.67000140
2014 Outlook: For years it seemed that White was an indestructible workhorse wideout, but that notion crashed to earth in Weeks 1-12 last year. White was on the field for eight of those contests and posted an abysmal 2.62 fantasy points per game (ranked 104th). Granted, he was battling injuries for most of that stretch, and once White healed up, he got back to his old form, racking up 61 points in Weeks 13-17. That was a top-10 total for that time frame, and it offers hope that he can return to that level. Still, don't count on White's being an iron man for a full season.
2013 Statistics12682133216.29320182
2014 Projections10765103115.974260147
2014 Outlook: Want to know why RG3 lobbied D-Jax to come to the nation's capital? Look no further than Jackson's sizzling downfield numbers last season. He finished fifth among WRs with 905 vertical yards and tied for first with eight vertical touchdowns. Those figures led to 132 fantasy points via vertical throws, a mark topped by only one WR: Josh Gordon. It just so happens that Jackson inhabits an offense in desperate need of a deep threat. The Redskins managed only 1,575 vertical passing yards last season, 27th in the NFL. Right now, we have him as a high-end WR2 with the potential to pop as a WR1 if he and RG3 can jell quickly.
2013 Statistics362837.921388038
2014 Projections2539313.76332530150
2014 Outlook: The Jaguars head into the season with Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson and rookie Storm Johnson as backfield backups, which means Gerhart could be looking at a seriously high workload. Why else would the Jags have given him starter money this winter? He's an accomplished pass blocker and has surprising slipperiness for a runner who weighs 231 pounds. But don't mistake slipperiness for quickness. Gerhart fits the profile of a pounding TD maker. The only problem? He finds himself in an offense with a recent history of being unable to get the ball into the red zone very often, and that won't change with either Chad Henne or rookie Blake Bortles at the helm.
2013 Statistics111717.000001
2014 Projections1067791611.9417811127
2014 Outlook: One point. That was Harvin's fantasy output in his first year in Seattle. After being hampered by a hip injury for most of the regular season, Harvin showed off his versatility in the Super Bowl with a kickoff-return TD and a game-leading 45 rushing yards. It remains to be seen whether he can play with consistency -- or stay on the field -- for 16 games. He's never posted 1,000 yards receiving or played 600 offensive snaps in a season, but there's a reason we have him ranked in our top 20. Harvin can break the game open at any moment; over the past two years, his 8.4 yards after the catch is tops among WRs with 50-plus targets.
2013 Statistics331928414.9100032
2014 Projections11480104313.061120141
2014 Outlook: After missing the first 11 games of 2013 with an Achilles tear, Crabtree showed some rust in the final five games of the regular season, averaging just 6.4 fantasy points. But he put on a show in the playoffs. His 11 catches of 10 or more yards -- and four gains of 20 or more -- prorate to top-10-caliber totals over the course of a 16-game season. It was further proof that when Crabtree is healthy, he's the primary target of QB Colin Kaepernick.
2013 Statistics845285016.313000156
2014 Projections885683514.9113330150
2014 Outlook: Big Vern was the No. 2 TE in fantasy last year, quite a rebound from his No. 15 ranking in 2012. It turns out all those theories suggesting Davis and Colin Kaepernick couldn't coexist were as ridiculous as they sounded. The duo seemed to like each other just fine inside the red zone, where Davis scored 9 of his 13 TDs. In a run-heavy offense with Michael Crabtree healthy and Stevie Johnson aboard, we'd argue that Davis won't be a top source of yardage or receptions. But the possibility of double-digit TDs keeps him elite.
2013 Statistics1637334.56362920127
2014 Projections2179604.47312180155
2014 Outlook: At 6-foot-1 and 231 pounds, Jennings should fit into the Andre Brown role in the Giants' offense. He broke out with Oakland in the second half of 2013, flashing a bit of speed to go with hulking short-yardage talent. But the key variable in New York's backfield is David Wilson, a player with all-world quickness and sprinting ability. If Wilson can excel in his return from neck surgery, Jennings becomes an ancillary piece, more of a goal-line specialist. If not, Jennings is a candidate for 250 carries, though rookie Andre Williams will be in the mix as well. We're not sure Jennings is talented enough to be a long-term backfield solution, but he could find his way toward fantasy usefulness in 2014.