Complete 2008 Projections
| PROJECTED 2008 SEASON STATS | | RNK | PLAYER, TEAM POS | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | W | SV | K | ERA | WHIP | EVALUATION | | 1 | Alex Rodriguez *, NYY 3B | 137 | 55 | 158 | 27 | .316 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | So much for his inability to perform in the clutch. Hold up his pas... [Read More]
So much for his inability to perform in the clutch. Hold up his past playoff performances as criticism all you want, but what matters in fantasy is that A-Rod has excelled during the regular season for more than a decade, and done it consistently at that. Did you realize, incidentally, that his 1.067 OPS in 2007 represented a career high? That tells you a lot about where he's at in his career. The decline won't come for a while; you'd be a fool not to pick this guy if you were fortunate enough to land the No. 1 pick overall.
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| | 2 | Hanley Ramirez , Fla SS | 127 | 26 | 76 | 53 | .320 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | The top echelon of the fantasy shortstop list is rarefied air, but... [Read More]
The top echelon of the fantasy shortstop list is rarefied air, but Ramirez belongs at its summit. He followed up an excellent rookie campaign with a historic season: .332, 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, 51 SBs and 125 Rs. Those numbers put him third, 20th, 29th, third and second in the NL in those five categories. And he did all this with a partially separated shoulder that required offseason surgery. With Miguel Cabrera gone, Ramirez may move to third in the order, which could mean fewer steals and more RBIs. Whatever. He's awesome, and he's 24.
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| | 3 | David Wright , NYM 3B | 107 | 32 | 109 | 28 | .319 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | He's a virtual lock to be a 30-30 guy. Look at his 2007 numbers and... [Read More]
He's a virtual lock to be a 30-30 guy. Look at his 2007 numbers and imagine what they would have been if he didn't have an April with no home runs and a .244 average. More importantly, he'll play every day. Wright has missed only 12 games over the past three seasons, and many of those were from Willie Randolph forcing him to take a night off. If he can get off to a good start, he could easily contend for NL MVP.
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| | 4 | Jose Reyes , NYM SS | 117 | 13 | 63 | 72 | .285 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Yes, the batting average plummeted during the second half of 2007 (... [Read More]
Yes, the batting average plummeted during the second half of 2007 (.253 compared to a .314 first half), but the entire team fell apart, not just Reyes. His power numbers actually increased -- nine of his 12 home runs came in the second half -- and the steals kept coming. He's entering his fourth full season as a starting shortstop and he's only 24! The power numbers appear to be ready for a boost and he increased his steals total every season. He's a definite first-round pick.
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| | 5 | Chase Utley , Phi 2B | 123 | 29 | 118 | 13 | .321 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | The best second baseman in fantasy baseball, Utley had another fant... [Read More]
The best second baseman in fantasy baseball, Utley had another fantastic season, topping 100 RBIs for the third straight year and nearly winning the batting title. He did this despite missing 30 games, most of them with a broken hand. Utley is a five-category star devoid of weakness. He even hit .318 against lefties.
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| | 6 | Matt Holliday , Col OF | 130 | 38 | 140 | 13 | .340 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | What's not to like with Holliday? He hit .332 with runners on base... [Read More]
What's not to like with Holliday? He hit .332 with runners on base and the righty smoked right-handed pitchers for a .351 average. Yes, it is true that 12 of his 36 home runs came in the last month of the season, but the Rockies won just about every game that month -- and they needed them all, too. He's talented. He's clutch. He'll cost you. He's worth it.
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| | 7 | Miguel Cabrera , Det 3B, 1B | 120 | 40 | 140 | 4 | .341 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | What isn't there to love about Cabrera? He'll turn 25 on April 18,... [Read More]
What isn't there to love about Cabrera? He'll turn 25 on April 18, meaning he's just now entering his prime; he has three consecutive years of at least a .320 batting average, .946 OPS and 114 RBIs; and the trade to Detroit plops him into a deeper lineup, which will help his runs/RBIs totals. Really, there's just one possible concern with Cabrera that could hinder him from top-five-overall status: the league switch. Will he need a couple of weeks to get acclimated to American League pitching? We're not worried. He's a stud.
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| | 8 | Johan Santana , NYM SP | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 22 | 0 | 269 | 2.54 | 0.90 | Santana will only get one year in Shea Stadium, but what a year it... [Read More]
Santana will only get one year in Shea Stadium, but what a year it could be. The best pitcher in fantasy for the past three seasons, Santana will play for a team that should give him the best run support of his career, while being in the NL East should allow him to rectify a slight downward trend in ERA and WHIP. He is also a strong contender to lead the majors in strikeouts once again. Consider him as soon as the top five bats are off the board.
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| | 9 | Carl Crawford , TB OF | 93 | 13 | 79 | 51 | .310 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | To criticize Crawford is to pick nits. The guy tied for his fourth... [Read More]
To criticize Crawford is to pick nits. The guy tied for his fourth stolen-base crown in five years, he's a lock for double-digit homers and an OPS in the .800s, and he doesn't turn 27 until August. Still, his 2007 batting average (.315) was a little higher than you should expect this year; Crawford's batting average on balls in play was .375, compared to the league average of around .300. In fact, his strikeouts counter-intuitively took a big leap at the same time as his batting average increased. But, hey, you'll still love him even if he hits .295.
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| | 10 | Jimmy Rollins *, Phi SS | 132 | 26 | 85 | 40 | .291 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | The defending NL MVP became the second Phillies player to go 30/30,... [Read More]
The defending NL MVP became the second Phillies player to go 30/30, joining Bobby Abreu. Will Rollins lose his power the same way Abreu has? Fantasy owners thought the 25 homers Rollins hit in 2006 were extreme, but he added five homers, along with five steals and 12 runs scored in 2007. This is a legit fantasy star still in his prime, so draft with confidence.
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| | 11 | Albert Pujols , StL 1B | 98 | 37 | 103 | 5 | .331 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | A litany of ailments led to career-worsts in many offensive categor... [Read More]
A litany of ailments led to career-worsts in many offensive categories for Pujols last year. He still hit .327-32-103 in an off year and his underlying skills remain strong. At age 28, Pujols is still a superstar in his prime, and it's fair to expect a substantial rebound if healthy. However, his late January admission that he will opt for surgery this year if his elbow troubles recur make him a big risk on draft day. Monitor his health throughout the spring, and on draft day be sure to consider the now-increased possibility that he could be an injury bust. Our projection is the best-case scenario. You don't want to see the worst. Avoid him in the first round and take a chance in the second, if you're feeling lucky.
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| | 12 | Alfonso Soriano , ChC OF | 113 | 42 | 91 | 37 | .284 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | It's hard to believe 33 homers and 19 steals could be a disappointm... [Read More]
It's hard to believe 33 homers and 19 steals could be a disappointment, but many expected more from Soriano in his first season at Wrigley. He hit 20 away from the Friendly Confines, and a knee injury limited him to just one steal after Aug. 1. His 14 homers and .320 average in September bode well for this season, though, and he'll be running a lot more, assuming he stays healthy. Another 30-30 season appears to be in the cards, although he'll be hard-pressed to approach a .300 average again.
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| | 13 | Ryan Howard , Phi 1B | 96 | 49 | 136 | 1 | .283 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | His second full season wasn't quite as good as his first, especiall... [Read More]
His second full season wasn't quite as good as his first, especially in batting average, but Howard remains about as sure a thing for power as there is. He's not without his faults, mainly with the record strikeout total and the struggle for hits against lefties, but if you've gotta have 50 homers, this is your guy.
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| | 14 | Ryan Braun , Mil 3B, OF | 115 | 43 | 122 | 19 | .299 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Hmm, where do we begin with the superlatives? We knew last spring t... [Read More]
Hmm, where do we begin with the superlatives? We knew last spring the future rookie of the year could hit, but to hit 34 homers and drive in 97 runs in 113 games and lead the NL in slugging is beyond expectations. How about the damage he did to southpaws, with a 1.480 OPS? Oh, and the 15 stolen bases were a nice surprise, too. Braun moves from third base to left field, but you don't have to worry about losing eligibility for another year. Simply put, Braun is a fantasy monster. Maybe he'll run less, maybe lefties will walk him more, but expect a huge season anyway.
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| | 15 | Jake Peavy , SD SP | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 19 | 0 | 258 | 2.50 | 1.09 | After going 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA in 2006, Peavy rebounded to win t... [Read More]
After going 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA in 2006, Peavy rebounded to win the Cy Young Award in the National League. He set career highs in wins (19), innings (223 1/3) and K/9 (9.7), and Peavy was just as dominant on the road as he was at Petco Park. That ballpark exaggerates the team's offensive problems, but the Padres ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored on the road, and Peavy ranked a respectable 16th in the league in run support. Bottom line: Peavy is a no-brainer as the No. 2 pitcher in fantasy.
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| | 16 | Ichiro Suzuki , Sea OF | 110 | 7 | 63 | 38 | .328 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | You can't get a much more complete mix of speed and raw hitting abi... [Read More]
You can't get a much more complete mix of speed and raw hitting ability than Ichiro, who has never finished with lower than a .303 batting average, 101 runs scored or 31 stolen bases in his seven years in the States. Quoting those numbers, in fact, does him a disservice; he has averaged .333-112-39 numbers in those categories per season. At 34, Ichiro has shown no signs of slowing down, and he'll resume his traditional role as the Mariners' center fielder and table-setter. Folks, this is about as consistent as they come.
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| | 17 | Grady Sizemore , Cle OF | 126 | 29 | 77 | 29 | .300 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Sizemore has been a dominant fantasy and real option ... and he mig... [Read More]
Sizemore has been a dominant fantasy and real option ... and he might not have even reached his potential yet. Scary, huh? Sizemore, a .222 career hitter versus lefties entering 2007, batted .284 against southpaws last season. However, he batted 40 points lower than his career average versus righties (.274 compared to .314 entering 2007). The sky's the limit for this 25-year-old who has improved his walk total significantly each of the past three seasons, from 52 to 78 to 101. He hasn't missed a game since 2005 and could be in line for his first 30-30 campaign.
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| | 18 | Brandon Phillips , Cin 2B | 95 | 26 | 90 | 31 | .284 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | It's time to stop calling him a fluke, since he went 30/30 in 2007... [Read More]
It's time to stop calling him a fluke, since he went 30/30 in 2007 and still hasn't reached the magical age of 27. Phillips manages to overcome a low walk rate, and all the worries about a low batting average seem silly now that he torches lefties (.341 average, half his homers in '07). Plus, he's a fly-ball hitter in a favorable hitters park. We can't be sure he'll show the same batting average or power, but the Reds seem intent on hitting him third, which means his RBIs will remain high.
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| | 19 | David Ortiz , Bos DH | 116 | 41 | 126 | 2 | .315 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | This is what the guy does with knee problems? Big Papi limped all y... [Read More]
This is what the guy does with knee problems? Big Papi limped all year but hit a career-best .332. His homers went down (from 47 and 54 the two previous years to 35), but his OPS actually went up. No matter what, this guy can hit. Realize also that 21 of those dingers came after the break. Someday, his giant belly will catch up to him and he'll fall off a cliff. But at 32, he's still in his prime, and should return to the 40-homer plateau in '08. He's an obvious second-rounder in mixed leagues.
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| | 20 | Prince Fielder , Mil 1B | 106 | 47 | 129 | 3 | .293 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Fielder went from 28 homers as a rookie to 50, and it doesn't look... [Read More]
Fielder went from 28 homers as a rookie to 50, and it doesn't look anything like a fluke. He raised his walk rate, had a higher OPS after the All-Star break and won't be 24 until May. Oh wait, his stolen bases dropped from 7 to 2. That's it, drop him to the second round! Fielder's a building-block fantasy option.
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| | 21 | Carlos Lee , Hou OF | 95 | 34 | 117 | 14 | .297 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | The first year of his mammoth six-year contract with the Astros wen... [Read More]
The first year of his mammoth six-year contract with the Astros went very well, as Lee reached 30 home runs for the fifth straight season, and his 119 RBIs were a career high. Lee didn't run much, but why quibble? Few outfielders are as durable and consistent as this guy, so spend big bucks (or an early pick) to get him.
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| | 22 | Vladimir Guerrero , LAA OF, DH | 91 | 29 | 120 | 7 | .325 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Guerrero owners would be more concerned about the 27 homers if it w... [Read More]
Guerrero owners would be more concerned about the 27 homers if it weren't for the 45 doubles. Still, a four-year slide in slugging percentage suggests that Guerrero may be an old 31. With hitters of his caliber, the decline is gradual. Vlad won't return to the 1.000 OPS days of his prime in Montreal and the steals are gone for good, but he's still a premium run producer and four-category stud. Last fall's triceps injury is behind him as well. Bid reasonably but without fear.
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| | 23 | Erik Bedard , Sea SP | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 18 | 0 | 253 | 2.72 | 1.05 | Though it cost them perhaps more in talent than it did the Mets to... [Read More]
Though it cost them perhaps more in talent than it did the Mets to acquire Johan Santana, the Mariners nevertheless paid the steep bounty to get Bedard to install him as staff ace. Not that it was a poor move; he shifts to a ballpark and a pitching staff better suited to his talents. Bedard has ranked a fantasy ace -- a clear No. 1 type -- since June 2007, and on the road, he has a 1.07 WHIP and .205 BAA in his past 24 starts, awfully encouraging numbers. The case can be made he's the American League's top fantasy starter.
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| | 24 | Mark Teixeira , Atl 1B | 100 | 35 | 121 | 1 | .299 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | His production in only 54 games in Atlanta was phenomenal, hitting... [Read More]
His production in only 54 games in Atlanta was phenomenal, hitting .317 with 18 home runs and 56 RBIs. He is likely to be a free agent after the season, so the motivation is there to match his output from 2007, when he fell just 14 runs shy of reaching the rare .300, 30 home runs, 100 runs, 100 RBIs milestones (accomplished only 15 times by a switch hitter in a single season) -- all the more impressive considering he missed a month with a bad knee. Teixeira is a top-five first baseman and should be drafted accordingly.
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| | 25 | Carlos Beltran , NYM OF | 101 | 33 | 108 | 21 | .274 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Something wasn't quite right with Beltran in the first half of 2007... [Read More]
Something wasn't quite right with Beltran in the first half of 2007, but whatever it was, he worked it out. He hit 23 of his 33 homers in the second half. Despite a bothersome knee, he still managed 23 steals. With the whole off-season to get that tendonitis tended to, it looks like Beltran is ready for a stellar 2008.
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| | 26 | B.J. Upton , TB 2B, OF | 94 | 23 | 83 | 28 | .289 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Upton had a monster full-season debut, posting 20-20 numbers while... [Read More]
Upton had a monster full-season debut, posting 20-20 numbers while batting .300 at the tender age of 22. Unfortunately, neither his 2007 ratios nor his minor league record wholly support last year's offensive output. Upton is a superstar in the making and will be an extremely valuable player for years to come, but don't pay for an improvement over his 2007 production.
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| | 27 | Lance Berkman , Hou 1B, OF | 92 | 35 | 108 | 6 | .288 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Berkman didn't match his heavenly 2006, but a .295-average, 19-home... [Read More]
Berkman didn't match his heavenly 2006, but a .295-average, 19-homer second half should quell rumors of a decline. Berkman started 2007 slowly, but it's not a historical trend for him. Also expect his subpar (by his home standards) home numbers his OPS was 150 points lower than on the road -- to get back in line. Berkman remains a top offensive threat.
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| | 28 | Brandon Webb , Ari SP | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 20 | 0 | 187 | 2.99 | 1.17 | He's about as solid as they come. His second half was even better t... [Read More]
He's about as solid as they come. His second half was even better than his first half, with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He showed no signs of getting tired late in the season and had a career year in strikeouts with 194. He should be a candidate for the Cy Young Award and is a definite No. 1 fantasy pitcher.
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| | 29 | Magglio Ordonez , Det OF | 94 | 23 | 113 | 2 | .337 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | Upon first glance, Ordonez's 2007 season might seem extremely tough... [Read More]
Upon first glance, Ordonez's 2007 season might seem extremely tough to repeat. That's true if you're talking about his .363 batting average; with a .385 balls-in-play average, fifth best in baseball among players with 450-plus plate appearances, Ordonez might have been a tad lucky. His career BIPA, after all, is .318. But why can't he repeat his numbers in the other categories, while still batting .300-plus? Ordonez is an elite slugger not far removed from his prime hitting in the heart of a monstrous offense. We'll be surprised if he can't at least come close to top-25 overall status again.
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| | 30 | Derek Jeter , NYY SS | 109 | 14 | 79 | 20 | .327 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | A lot of people might tell you Jeter is more name value than fant... [Read More]
A lot of people might tell you Jeter is more name value than fantasy value, but don't be fooled. He's a standout in the real game and in ours. No, he's not a top pick, not a first-rounder, but how many players in baseball can boast nine years of both a .300-plus batting average and 110-plus runs, seven years apiece with 15-plus homers and 25-plus stolen bases and six years with 75-plus RBIs in 12 full big league seasons? He's a category filler and an elite shortstop and should be taken in the top 30 in Roto setups.
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