Complete 2010 Projections

ESPN's 2010 projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Positional eligibility is based on 2009 statistics. For hitters, a player must have played 20 games at a position to be eligible there in 2010. For pitchers, starting pitcher eligibility is achieved by having made at least five starts in 2009 and relief pitcher eligibility by having made at least 8 relief appearances.

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PROJECTED 2010 SEASON STATS
1. Albert Pujols, StL 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics568124471351156416.327.443.6581.101
2010 Projections563114431221156211.337.452.6471.099
2010 Outlook: What's not to like? Coming off a small career "blip" (if back-to-back years of averaging .342-35-110-5-100 numbers can be called a "blip") because of concerns about his elbow, Pujols roared back in a major way in 2009, registering the second-most home runs (47) and second-most RBIs (135) in his career and winning his third MVP award. He easily topped the 2009 Player Rater and enters 2010 the unquestioned No. 1 overall pick, and if there's any question now, it's where he ranks among the all-time greats and at what point his career might begin a downward slope. To that end, consider that the closest comparable career to Pujols, at his current 30 years of age, is Hall of Famer Jimmie Foxx (per Baseball-Reference.com), who had 379 home runs as of his 30th birthday, 13 more than Pujols. Foxx did swat only 155 more the remainder of his career, but he serves as a point in Pujols' favor. Foxx belted 50 homers with a career-best 175 RBIs in an MVP campaign at the age of 30, so it's clear we're far from the point at which Pujols' career heads downhill.
2. Hanley Ramirez, Fla SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics576101241066110127.342.410.543.954
2010 Projections59511329916910634.324.400.546.946
2010 Outlook: One of the unfortunate realities of the baseball world is that as five-tool talents blossom with the bat, they tend to "slow down" as base stealers. There are theories to explain it: Teams are less apt to risk injuries running them wild, and they will often be slotted into heart-of-the-order lineup spots where sitting back and waiting for base-clearing home runs is smarter than risking outs on the basepaths. Ramirez is a great example. His steals have dropped in each of the past two seasons, but in turn his RBIs soared to a career-best 106 in 2009, thanks to 145 games hitting out of the No. 3 hole. Ramirez, 26, is in his prime years as a hitter, is still quick enough to swipe 30 bags, even if he's no longer a 50-steal candidate, and if you ask us there isn't a stronger candidate in the game for a 30-homer, 100-RBI, 100-run, 30-steal campaign. The even better news is he's a shortstop, not the easiest position to fill. He is a guy around whom you want to build your team.
3. Alex Rodriguez, NYY 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics4447830100809714.286.402.532.933
2010 Projections556110391258512421.300.402.563.965
2010 Outlook: The start and finish of Rodriguez's 2009 season could not have been more like night and day. To refresh your memory, at the onset of spring training, he admitted to steroid use in the early 2000's while with the Texas Rangers. A few weeks later, he underwent surgery on his hip that cost him the first 28 games of the Yankees' season. The critics were prepared to vilify him upon his return to from the disabled list, but in a precursor of things to come Rodriguez homered the first pitch he was thrown. Despite appearing in only 124 games, his fewest since his rookie year in 1995, A-Rod reached the 30-homer and 100-RBI plateaus for the 12th consecutive season. What's more, he played a significant part in the Yankees' World Series championship, exorcizing October demons and further pushing critics off his back. Rodriguez received some good news during the winter, too. He did not require the second hip surgery that was prescribed during the preseason. Perhaps he's no longer the 50-homer or 20-steal candidate that he once was, but with the situation he's in, Rodriguez shouldn't finish all that far off in 2010.
4. Ryan Braun, Mil OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics635113321145712120.320.386.551.937
2010 Projections623110371165912517.315.380.576.956
2010 Outlook: Braun's about as complete a fantasy player as there is. In each of his three big-league seasons, he's managed at least 30 home runs, 90 runs scored, 90 RBIs and 10 stolen bases, and he's averaging .308-34-106-16-99 per-year numbers. Braun is amazingly consistent, managing an OPS of .900 or greater in 11 of 17 career months in the majors and falling short of .800 in the category in only four. What's more, he accomplished those feats from the onset of his career, in his ages 23-25 seasons, and now he's entering what's widely considered a player's power-prime years. So, can Braun actually improve on his 2009? Perhaps. He boosted both his walk and contact rates in his third big-league season, a sign he's developing as a hitter, and he stole a career-high 20 bases (with a solid 76.9 percent success rate), so there's room for growth across the board. But even if Braun's numbers remain constant, is there any question he's a first-round pick?
5. Chase Utley, Phi 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics57111231938811023.282.397.508.905
2010 Projections58911430978111118.290.396.520.916
2010 Outlook: He's the class of a historically weak position, and while second base has grown deeper heading into 2010 NL-only owners might be interested to know that Utley finished 25th overall on the 2009 Player Rater, 42 spots ahead of No. 2 second baseman Brandon Phillips and 107 spots ahead of No. 3, Felipe Lopez. In other words, Utley's value takes on even greater importance the shallower your draft pool, but regardless of format, his place as a first-round value is indisputable. His average stat line the past five seasons is .301-29-101-15-111, numbers you would expect from an elite outfielder, and he's well within his prime at 31 years old. And Utley's Phillies are every bit as potent an offense as they were in any of those five seasons, making him a prime pick to lock down a somewhat difficult position early.
6. Matt Kemp, LAD OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics60697261015213934.297.352.490.842
2010 Projections5879624915313032.307.364.503.867
2010 Outlook: If you're composing a list of top 30/30 candidates for 2010, Kemp might by all rights be your first name, that is, if not for Hanley Ramirez. Kemp finished four home runs short of the 30/30 exclusive club in 2009, and he might have gotten there had he not been inexplicably slotted sixth or lower in the Dodgers lineup on 94 occasions, costing him a handful of valuable at-bats. Count on Joe Torre recognizing that Kemp belongs somewhere between the Nos. 2-5 spots, which the outfielder occupied in his final 41 regular-season and eight postseason contests. His placement should help either his runs scored (No. 2 hole) or RBI (4-5) totals, respectively. As for his bat, Kemp's 2009 showed some growth potential, as both his walk rate (7.9 percent of plate appearances) and fly ball rate (38.3 percent of batted balls) spiked, signs that he might have room for improvement. Not to mention he's now 25 years old and approaching his prime years. If there's any concern, it's that he needs to improve his performance versus right-handers, against whom he managed .278/.329/.453 (BA/OBP/SLG) numbers last season. But that was still a step up from his 2008 performance (.260/.309/.416), and at his age Kemp might figure them out this year.
7. Prince Fielder, Mil 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics591103461411101382.299.412.6021.014
2010 Projections589100451271061342.292.404.584.988
2010 Outlook: Who needs meat? Fielder's critics came out of the woodwork following his so-so 2008 campaign and tried to make a link between his season and switch to vegetarianism during the previous winter, but the bulky slugger quieted those folks in a major way last season. He set career highs in almost every fantasy category (and came close in those he did not), and finished in the top 10 in baseball in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, home runs, RBIs, walks and extra-base hits. Fielder also closed the only remaining hole in his game, his performance versus left-handers, torching them for a .292 batting average and 13 homers in 178 at-bats. Now 25, he's a bona fide MVP candidate for the next half-decade or more, and while his status as a first baseman, a deep position, suppresses his value ever-so-slightly, a slugger with numbers like his is a first-round candidate in any fantasy format.
8. Carl Crawford, TB OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics606961568519960.305.364.452.816
2010 Projections599931584459855.301.353.457.810
2010 Outlook: It's always been a debate as to whether or not a healthy Crawford should be a first-round pick (the numbers justify the draft position, but he falls out of the first in many leagues). The bottom line is if you get a chance to own Crawford in the first two rounds and your pick is in the middle of the first round or later, you should do so. After hamstring and wrist issues depressed his numbers a bit in 2008, he bounced right back to put up one of his typical seasons last year, including career-highs in steals and on-base percentage. There's no reason to expect that the 28-year-old won't continue to bring the same production at the top of a stacked Rays lineup.
9. Miguel Cabrera, Det 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics6119634103681076.324.396.547.942
2010 Projections60210632102681173.312.384.535.919
2010 Outlook: The one knock against Cabrera has always been his lack of focus on his conditioning, but he has never played in fewer than 157 games since becoming a regular and has brought the goods every year. If he's truly made some changes off the field, as his three-month treatment for alcoholism in the offseason would indicate, it's not far-fetched to suggest that this coming season could be his best. Despite his reported troubles last October, there's no way you should let Cabrera fall out of the first round. He's as bankable as they come.
10. Tim Lincecum, SF SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2009 Statistics3232225.16826115002.481.0510.42
2010 Projections3333228.07926115002.681.1110.30
2010 Outlook: Let Lincecum's critics sweat the innings he amassed before his 25th birthday, he's a Cy Young talent that, after winning his first piece of hardware in 2008, actually improved in his junior year. Two great stats in support of that, from Inside Edge are Lincecum's well-hit average of at-bats has dropped precipitously in each of his big league seasons (from .214 in 2007 to .191 in 2008 to .146 last year), and the percentage of his 2-0, 2-1 and three-ball counts ending in outs has risen from 48 in 2007 to 56 in 2008 to 58 percent last season, which shows he's one tough cookie who trusts his stuff in most any situation. While some fantasy owners might fear the day Lincecum's workload catches up with him, which we can't even be certain will happen, you should snatch him up with confidence before the first round of your draft concludes. After all, he's as good a candidate as anyone to lead the majors in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.
11. Mark Teixeira, NYY 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics60910339122811142.292.383.565.948
2010 Projections60310438125841152.299.390.567.957
2010 Outlook: Though Teixeira was practically invisible during the Yankees' postseason run in 2009, let's not hold that against him. After all, his 2009 represented just about the best-case scenario in his first year in pinstripes. He led the American League in home runs (39) and RBIs (122), and managed an OPS greater than .900 for the fifth time in his past six seasons. Teixeira did get off to a slow start, batting .198 with a .339 on-base percentage and .396 slugging percentage through May 7, but keep in mind that is the day before Alex Rodriguez returned to the cleanup spot behind him. After that date, Teixeira managed .310/.392/.596 (BA/OBP/SLG) numbers -- MVP statistics. His sluggish start might have been a product of his being historically so-so in April (.249/.349/.433 career numbers) -- hint, hint, trade for him on May 1. With a homer-friendly ballpark helping his cause (24 of his 39 homers came at home in 2009), Teixeira should at least approach, and perhaps surpass, his 2009 numbers in 2010, making him a prime early-round pick.
12. David Wright, NYM 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics5358810727414027.307.390.447.837
2010 Projections59510421978913625.304.393.494.887
2010 Outlook: Wright's 2009 season was quite the enigma. Previously a consistent .300-30-110-20-100 in fantasy production, Wright's power dropped off in a major way at the Mets' spacious new ballpark. By his own admission, Wright adapted his swing to rope line drives into the outfield gaps rather than hit home runs, a plausible claim if you consider that his 25.7 percent line-drive rate ranked second among all qualified hitters. But by the same token, Wright's declining contact rate (he went from an average of one strikeout per 5.24 at-bats from 2006-08 to one per 3.82 in 2009) seems to be entirely out of line with that approach. He struck out on 45 percent of his plate appearances that reached two strikes, and he swung and missed on 24 percent of swings with a two-strike count, both significantly worse than the league averages, not to mention his previous numbers. Wright had baseball's highest BABIP (.400), an unsustainable number no matter what kind of hitter he is. The gut call, recognizing how out of line his numbers were with his track record, is to dismiss his 2009 as an aberration. Still, the above facts are not easily dismissed, which is why Wright, a certain first-rounder in years past, is probably more a second-round candidate this season.
13. Roy Halladay, Phi SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2009 Statistics3232239.03520817002.791.137.83
2010 Projections3434229.04020116002.911.147.90
2010 Outlook: Halladay likes to finish what he started. He led all pitchers in complete games (47) and shutouts (14) in the "aughts," but was hardly overworked. He ranked 11th in innings pitched during the decade, has never once led the league in pitches thrown or pitches per start and has only 12 times in his career thrown 120 or more pitches in an outing. Halladay is an efficient workhorse, and someone that should adapt beautifully to the National League, even if he is plopped into one of the league's most hitting-friendly environments. His ability to last deep into outings and his status as the ace of the defending NL champs should make him one of the strongest win candidates in baseball. While Halladay's ERA was 2.78 the past two years in the American League, specifically the loaded AL East, last season, the NL's ERA was more than a quarter-run lower than the AL's. He's a bona fide fantasy ace, and should be drafted accordingly.
14. Evan Longoria, TB 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics58410033113721409.281.364.526.889
2010 Projections59810437119711429.286.367.538.905
2010 Outlook: Trying to point out flaws in Longoria's offensive game is a fruitless exercise. He built on his superb rookie season and was everything his owners could have asked for in 2009, hitting both lefties and righties. He even started adding a few more stolen bases to his game in the second half. Let's be honest, you probably didn't come here to find out if you should use a high pick on Evan Longoria. Just know the numbers are fully supported and still have some small upward potential as he enters his third season in the big leagues.
15. Ryan Howard, Phi 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2009 Statistics61610545141751868.279.360.571.931
2010 Projections60410447145771935.268.353.565.918
2010 Outlook: It would be hard to find a much better pure power bat than Howard's and certainly not one that resides in such a homer-friendly ballpark. Howard has clobbered at least 45 balls out of big-league parks in each of the past four seasons, but what's most interesting about his splits is he actually has totaled six more home runs on the road than at Citizens Bank Park during that span. Not that Citizens Bank doesn't help him. The Phillies' home park has rated above-average in terms of home runs in each of its six years in existence (in the top 10 four times and in 2007 it was No. 1). His declining walk rate is worrisome because it threatens to diminish his batting average to the point that he could be a liability in the category. But on the bright side, he's still on the tail end of his prime years at 30 years old. He will cost you a second-round pick, but if you're worried about the downslope of his career and pass on him keep in mind as you consider midseason trade targets that he's a .302/.407/.633 (BA/OBP/SLG) career second-half hitter who has never batted lower than .276 after the All-Star break in any year of his career.
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