Complete 2015 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
2014 Statistics3253763534906.222.294.320.614
2015 Projections5577218755815910.241.312.391.703
2015 Outlook: The notion that the Rays might look to trade Myers would have seemed absurd following his 2013 rookie of the year campaign, and while it still came as a surprise when it happened this offseason, his 2014 was disappointing enough that the move did not necessarily send shockwaves through the industry. He missed 70 games with a fractured wrist in the middle of the summer, but his performance when he was on the field was just as concerning as the health of his wrist long term. Myers hit .227 with five home runs in 224 plate appearances before the injury and .213 with just one home run in 137 plate appearances after returning. Moving to an even more extreme pitchers' park in San Diego and increasingly pronounced struggles against lefties both rank near the top of the list of measurable concerns. There are also questions about Myers' work ethic, but those are far more speculative. It's hard to not view the fact he has now been traded twice after playing just 175 games in the big leagues as a bit of a red flag, but at just 24 years old, his raw hitting ability and pedigree offer reasons for cautious optimism going forward, and the Padres do have a rebuilt offense.
2014 Statistics570831052758410.272.354.395.749
2015 Projections570781366778511.270.357.418.774
2015 Outlook: The positive slant on Zobrist's 2014 looks at his 6.3 percent HR/FB rate and spins it as an outlier based on his 10 percent career mark, but the negative slant sees that he also had a 6.1 percent rate in 2013 and a 6.0 percent rate in 2010, giving him three seasons of something in the six percent range in his past five. He hit 20 homers in the other two seasons, with a 12 percent HR/FB in both. His three-position eligibility includes shortstop again, making the power dip much more palatable if that's where you plan to slot him more often than not. Only 12 shortstops hit 10-plus home runs, and only six of those chipped in at least 10 stolen bases, too. If you throw in a batting-average threshold of Zobrist's .272, you're down to just three shortstops meeting all three criteria, with Hanley Ramirez and Alexei Ramirez joining Zobrist. There is still a lot of value here, even at 34 years old and in a spacious new home park in Oakland.
2014 Statistics60171228134949.306.325.361.686
2015 Projections58668228205344.290.316.345.661
2015 Outlook: Players such as Revere, who routinely tally 35-50 steals with a high batting average -- no matter how empty -- always get undervalued when the package does not come with some power. In 2,026 career plate appearances, Revere has two home runs, 145 steals and a .291 batting average. That is the package. There's no room for projection, but there's also not much room for regression, given his elite speed and the fact that he does not turn 27 until May. Revere's spot in the Phillies' lineup is critical to his ability to rack up runs and opportunities to steal; with just a .325 OBP last season, he might have found himself in the No. 8 hole on a better team. However, the Phillies do not have many (if any) better in-house leadoff options, so he should once again find himself atop the lineup, offering fantasy owners significant contributions in steals and batting average with above-average runs scored, particularly if the elderly sluggers behind him can bring him around consistently.
2014 Statistics455581340581313.242.340.374.714
2015 Projections5187915468013712.263.376.407.783
2015 Outlook: Choo was a major disappointment in the first season of his massive free-agent deal with Texas. However, ankle and elbow injuries that bothered him almost all season likely played a major role in his ineffectiveness, so there remains hope for a bounce back 2015. Choo had surgeries to address both injuries in the final months of the season, and, according to early reports, he should be fully recovered in time for the start of spring training. It was reasonable to expect big things from Choo after he hit 21 home runs with 20 steals and a .285/.423/.462 slash line in 712 plate appearances with the Reds in 2013. The most impressive thing about those numbers is the fact that he continued to be lousy (.215 average) against southpaws and yet still raked enough against righties to keep his rates high. It's not wise to project anyone to get on base at a 40 percent clip, but Choo remains a reasonable threat to hit 15 homers with 15 steals atop the Rangers order.
2014 Statistics372462057311271.231.300.452.752
2015 Projections501662478411563.246.312.455.767
2015 Outlook: In the current power-deprived environment, a player such as Arcia with the ability to hit 20 home runs in just 410 plate appearances has value in most formats despite his noticeable flaws. Arcia has not shown a good eye on breaking balls, and he typically cannot handle fastballs up in the zone. These deficiencies in his approach led to a 31 percent strikeout rate, which was ninth worst among hitters with 400-plus plate appearances. Arcia also has a .224/.266/.347 career slash line against lefties, so he should handle the strong side of a left-field platoon in 2015. Even with a shoddy approach and questions about his ability to play every day, it's too early to pigeonhole a 23-year-old whose plus raw power has already started to show up in games. With better health (he missed seven weeks with a variety of injuries in 2014) and a little luck (.292 BABIP last season) he could best his 2014 numbers, but he's already squarely on the radar in fantasy.
2014 Statistics564732066791418.227.326.388.714
2015 Projections5407723657315310.231.326.413.739
2015 Outlook: Granderson was able to reestablish himself as a sufficient power threat at the age of 33 last season. It's not on par with the back-to-back 40-plus-homer seasons he had with the Yankees from 2011 to 2012, but hitting 20 home runs while playing half his games at Citi Field is a notable accomplishment. The good news is that the Mets have decided to move the right-field fences five feet in along the line and 10 feet closer in right-center. Considering all 20 of Granderson's homers last season were to right or right-center, this can hardly be considered a coincidence. He's got a pretty safe floor of 20 homers in 2015, with the potential for five or six more if he can stay healthy. Unfortunately, Grandy hit a career-low .227 last season after hitting .229 in 2013 and .232 in 2012. Considering the Mets play him almost every day, an average that low can do a lot of damage in rotisserie leagues. Entering his age-34 season, Granderson should be viewed as cheap outfield power who will need to be surrounded by some high batting averages to help hide his inefficiencies.
2014 Statistics46368947666619.246.336.363.699
2015 Projections468731249586623.252.331.391.722
2015 Outlook: Regression in Crisp's power was all but assured heading into 2014, as the 22 homers he hit in 2013 marked not only a career high, but almost tripled his career average of 7.8 homers per season in his first 11 years in the big leagues. Sure enough, he hit just nine long balls in 536 at-bats last season, which more accurately represents his raw power. Last year also marked the eighth time in Crisp's 13-year career he failed to play in 130 games, as he dealt with nagging neck pain as well as thigh and wrist injuries. Considering his defense took a significant step back, according to most advanced stats, as well as the fact that Oakland is inherently willing to platoon, it would not be surprising to see his playing time decrease slightly in 2015 regardless of his health. Crisp should still play most days against righties, and a 13th straight season with double-digit steals should follow, but his production in the other standard rotisserie categories might simply be league average.
2014 Statistics597714474714420.256.308.347.655
2015 Projections587857474915322.257.314.366.681
2015 Outlook: Despite getting 656 plate appearances in 2014, Jackson hit just four home runs -- his lowest total since his 2010 rookie campaign. In fact, he averaged almost 13 home runs per season from 2011 to 2013, so owners certainly were not expecting such a power outage. He's only ever shown pull power, but the move to Seattle (as part of the three-way David Price trade) could help slightly in that regard, as it is only 331 feet down the left-field line in Safeco Field, versus 345 feet down the line in Comerica Park. Another factor working against Jackson last season was his shockingly low 2.6 percent HR/FB ratio. His career mark is 6.7 percent, and he was between 9.2 and 11.4 percent in 2012 and 2013. He should continue to be a threat on the bases (17.8 steals per year, 20 steals last season) while offering a batting average in the neighborhood of his .274 career mark. Jackson projects to be one of the league leaders in runs batting atop the Mariners order, and assuming his power bounces back in his age-28 season, he could be a top-25 outfielder in 2015.
2014 Statistics471555532410828.301.339.412.751
2015 Projections576678603512927.262.307.372.679
2015 Outlook: A postseason star because of his defensive heroics and the beneficiary of a .380 BABIP (.301 batting average) in 2014, Cain will probably come off the board a little too early in fantasy leagues this season. He missed 17 games with a groin strain and still managed to steal a career-high 28 bases. However, the only other time he has stolen that many bases in a season as a professional was in 2006, when he stole 34 at low Class A with the Brewers. With that in mind, owners should be happy to get 20 steals out of Cain, especially with his turning 29 in April. In addition, his batting average should regress toward his .279 career mark without an inordinate amount of luck on balls in play, and he has never been an overly patient hitter (six percent career walk rate), so his OBP should also take a step back from his .339 mark of 2014. Kansas City's lack of thumpers in the middle of the lineup might benefit Cain, as he fits into the 2- or 3-hole as well as anyone they've got, but this still projects to be a mediocre offense, so above-average counting stats might not be there.
2014 Statistics40570740199820.319.353.472.824
2015 Projections587776422613322.269.304.388.693
2015 Outlook: Santana is an interesting player to value for 2015, as he was an unheralded prospect who took advantage of playing opportunities to hit .319 with 41 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases last year. He came up through the system as a shortstop, but his high error rate (36 errors in 2013) and an acute need for help in the outfield in 2014 prompted the Twins to move him to center field. However, he will be moved back to shortstop this spring to compete with Eduardo Escobar for the starting job. This makes a lot of sense, as Byron Buxton is the center fielder of the future, and the Twins lack strong internal options at shortstop. The move only adds to the fantasy intrigue, as Santana could regress mightily as a hitter, but remain useful based on the scarcity at the position. Speaking of regression, it is probably coming for Santana, as he hit a whopping .405 on balls in play and walked just 4.4 percent of the time. But even with that projected drawback in batting average, Santana should still provide stolen bases, runs and some power growth.
2014 Statistics40346154937803.233.301.402.703
2015 Projections45559206141944.257.320.446.766
2015 Outlook: Beltran's first season in Yankee pinstripes did not go quite according to plan. He missed 38 games due to injuries, most of which were related to his right elbow, from which bone spurs were removed at the end of the season. Beltran is expected to be fully healthy for the start of 2015, but durability still lingers as the primary concern heading into his age-38 season. He tried to play through the bone spurs last year, and his performance suffered because of it, though a .252 BABIP also played a major part in Beltran's .703 OPS -- his lowest mark since the 2000 season. Considering he hit 24 home runs with a .296 average in 2013 with St. Louis, there's reason to believe he could post similar numbers with good health in 2015. Of Beltran's 15 home runs last season, 12 went out to right field, so the hope remains that he will take full advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium in a full season.
2014 Statistics33851214940765.293.373.556.930
2015 Projections41958205449946.274.358.487.845
2015 Outlook: Pearce lived his early MLB life as a short-side platoon player on the four corners (first, third, left and right), but a surge against righties resulted in a nice, career year at age 31. He had six homers against right-handers in 488 plate appearances prior to 2014 but hit double that number in just 272 plate appearances while continuing to be a lefty-killer too. The ride appeared over in July, when he managed just a .681 OPS and two home runs, but he caught fire again and closed with a 1.040 OPS and 10 homers in the final two months, despite a lack of full-time play. However, this is his first run of real success against right-handers, and he's too old to map out a legitimate growth pattern. Trusting post-30-year-old breakouts is a fast track to a fifth-place finish, but Pearce should get enough at-bats at DH, with some starts sprinkled in at first base and the outfield corners, to be worth monitoring in deeper formats in 2015.
2014 Statistics27831102917938.205.254.367.621
2015 Projections3965011412911315.242.295.404.699
2015 Outlook: Alcantara got ahead of some of his more highly touted prospect mates in the Cubs organization in 2014, getting the call to fill the void first at second base and later in center field. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to carry over his production from the minors in his first exposure to major league pitching. Strikeouts were the big culprit for Alcantara, as he whiffed a whopping 31 percent of the time. The bigger problem is that more help is on the way for the Cubs -- between Albert Almora, Javier Baez and Addison Russell, at least one or two guys are bound to be displaced, and Alcantara is likely to be one of them. Even if the Cubs send down Baez to cut down on his prodigious whiff rate, they still have Tommy La Stella available as a superior OBP option. It's silly to dismiss a player after a 70-game sample, but Alcantara will have to dramatically improve on last season's .205 batting average to reestablish a foothold in the Cubs' lineup.
2014 Statistics48676135438315.300.362.401.763
2015 Projections54290437539220.271.345.380.725
2015 Outlook: Leadoff hitters on teams with productive middle-of-the-order bats are typically good values on draft day, and Eaton figures to be no different. He missed 35 games with a variety of minor maladies but still managed to score 76 runs in 538 plate appearances. There are some concerns about Eaton's ability to stay healthy for a full season due to his aggressive style of play, but there is no denying his qualifications as a leadoff hitter when healthy. He offers virtually no power, but he hit .300 with a .362 OBP and 15 steals last season. The average was aided by good fortune on balls in play (.359 BABIP), but even if he hits .280 for a full season, he could approach 100 runs and 20 steals. Eaton, who turned 26 this offseason, is basically a finished product, but he has the ability to be a three-category contributor for years to come.
2014 Statistics34356846165523.300.339.429.767
2015 Projections43066944227022.288.329.416.745
2015 Outlook: Crawford proved in 2014 that he is still capable of being a relevant fantasy option. Despite a litany of minor ailments over the past few seasons, he was able to hit .300 with eight home runs and 23 steals in 370 plate appearances as a 32-year-old. Joc Pederson will essentially replace Matt Kemp in the Dodgers' lineup, keeping the outfield as crowded as ever, but Crawford will get enough at-bats to be useful if he can stay relatively healthy. However, he has averaged just 95.5 games per season since leaving Tampa Bay as a free agent after 2010, so banking on more than 400 plate appearances from Crawford is unwise. He has more value in leagues with daily lineup changes to help combat his inevitable absences, but outfielders who steal bases and hit .285 to .300 with some pop tend to be useful in all formats.