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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Justin Verlander, Det SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	238.1	60	239	17	0	0	2.64	1.06	9.03		625
	2013 Projections		33	33	234.0	61	240	20	0	0	2.96	1.09	9.23		603
2013 Outlook: Workhorse, thy name is Verlander. During the past five seasons, no pitcher has made more starts (168) or averaged more pitches per start (112.6), and his 1203 1/3 innings pitched, postseason included, ranks second only to CC Sabathia (1244). Limiting it to only 2011-12, he tossed a mind-boggling 537 2/3 frames counting the postseason. Yet despite that hefty workload Verlander is coming off his two best seasons, which earned him a 2011 American League Cy Young and placed him second in the balloting in 2012. He also hasn't made a single trip to the disabled list in eight seasons as a big leaguer. Verlander's greatest asset in fantasy is volume; he is a pitcher with outstanding statistics, but it's the innings he pitches comparative to his brethren that enhance their impact. Rotisserie leagues, points-based leagues, head-to-head leagues, whatever style you play, Verlander should be one of -- it not the -- first starting pitchers off your board.

2. Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	227.2	63	229	14	0	0	2.53	1.02	9.05		572
	2013 Projections		33	33	226.0	63	233	16	0	0	2.71	1.04	9.28		581
2013 Outlook: Let's face it: After the kind of two-year run Kershaw had in 2011-12, he might be the unquestioned No. 1 starting pitcher if not for a hip injury that sidetracked him briefly last September. So let's allay those concerns: He avoided surgery, and his statistics in the four starts he made after the injury popped up (3-for-4 in quality starts, 0.64 ERA) weren't any less superb than those he had accrued in his 29 starts before it. The Dodgers have maintained Kershaw's workload splendidly -- he's a 25-year-old who on only three occasions in 98 starts combined from 2010 to '12 threw 120-plus pitches -- and he ranks among the top five in baseball the past three seasons combined in the following: WHIP (1.06, fourth), FIP (2.81, second), K's per nine (9.32, third), K rate (25.9 percent, first) and quality start percentage (74.5, fourth). And perhaps best of all, no one has induced weaker contact during that time, his .151 well-hit average allowed is lowest in the game. Unless publicly addressed injuries like Kershaw's hip bother you -- remember that every pitcher to a degree comes with some wear and tear -- there's little reason not to consider him as one of, if not the, first pitchers off the board.

3. Felix Hernandez, Sea SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	232.0	56	223	13	0	0	3.06	1.14	8.65		566
	2013 Projections		33	33	239.0	61	225	14	0	0	3.01	1.11	8.47		548
2013 Outlook: If only the Mariners could score King Felix some runs. Wins are Hernandez's greatest "shortcoming"; he has only 40 wins combined the past three seasons despite a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, because the Mariners have afforded him a major-league-low 3.50 runs per nine innings of support during that time. His skills, however, rival those of the best starting pitchers in the game. He's a workhorse, his 715 1/3 innings pitched the past three years combined are the most in the majors; he's coming off a year in which he set personal bests in terms of both his strikeout (23.8 percent of total batters faced, 8.65 per nine innings) and walk rates (6.0 and 2.17); and he has the ability to be untouchable on any given night, best evidenced by his major-league-leading 30 outings of at least eight innings allowing one run or fewer from 2010-12. If Hernandez simply pitched for a better team, he might be a candidate to be the first pitcher off the board in rotisserie leagues. In leagues that award quality starts, however, he's a more compelling candidate, having amassed the third-most of those from 2010-12 combined (73).

4. Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		28	28	159.1	48	197	15	0	0	3.16	1.15	11.13		424
	2013 Projections		33	33	193.0	53	234	16	0	0	3.17	1.13	10.91		499
2013 Outlook: Are the restrictions off? Ah, that is the question. One of the most-discussed players in all of baseball in 2012, Strasburg, on a per-start basis, was as productive a pitcher as anyone in fantasy. However, the Nationals ended his season in early September at 159 1/3 innings pitched, their concerns about Strasburg's health in his first full campaign following Tommy John surgery a greater priority than their own playoff fate. In doing so, the team demonstrated it has a clear rehabilitation plan, as rotation mate Jordan Zimmermann pitched 161 1/3 innings in his first year coming off that surgery, then 195 2/3 in his follow-up year. Does that mean Strasburg is now ticketed for 195 2/3 frames of his own? It's a smart bet, and projecting his career-to-date statistics to that number results in 16 wins, 244 strikeouts, a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those are tops-among-starting-pitchers fantasy statistics, and they underscore his tremendous upside as he enters his age-24 campaign. He's also much more attractive a pick in head-to-head leagues this year, based upon greater probability of him completing the regular season.

5. David Price*, TB SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		31	31	211.0	59	205	20	0	0	2.56	1.10	8.74		563
	2013 Projections		33	33	216.0	63	213	19	0	0	3.17	1.16	8.88		517
2013 Outlook: The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Price is a pitcher who was still trending upward statistically even as he concluded his outstanding 2012 campaign. Consider that he was 14-for-15 in quality starts with nine wins, a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 108 strikeouts the second half of the season, and from a year-over-year standpoint, he has increased both his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his average fastball velocity in each of the past three seasons. Oh, toss in the fact that his ground-ball rate has risen accordingly in the same three-year pattern, to the point that it was higher than 50 percent in 2012 (52.4, to be exact), and Price has become a high-strikeout, ground-ball-inducing dynamo, minimizing his risk of regression. Wins might be a difficult category for American League East pitchers -- Price's 20 carried a healthy chunk of value in rotisserie -- but that might be the only category in which he stands to suffer any noticeable decline. Now 27, he is a member of the game's elite, and he should be drafted as such.

6. Matt Cain, SF SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	219.1	51	193	16	0	0	2.79	1.04	7.92		588
	2013 Projections		33	33	210.0	55	194	17	0	0	2.96	1.14	8.31		503
2013 Outlook: Sometimes, converting batted balls put into the field of play -- meaning non-strikeouts, walks or home runs -- into outs is a skill. Cain is the only pitcher in baseball to have finished among the 10 best in the game in BABIP allowed in each of the past four seasons, his .263 number in the category during that span the lowest among pitchers with at least 100 starts. He is not a "lucky" pitcher, but rather a consistent ace who might garner more headlines if his Giants could have only won him more games. To that point about consistency, among the pitchers who made 15 or more starts last season, Cain never had an individual Game Score lower than 38, a feat that nobody else in the game can claim, and his 60.6 average Game Score was fifth-best among qualified starters. Maybe the Giants will be unable to push his win total into the 20s, putting him into serious Cy Young consideration. But even if they don't, isn't there something to be said for a pitcher with the skills to lead your squad and do it without the worry of ever having to move him to your bench to avoid the most treacherous matchups?

7. Cliff Lee, Phi SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		30	30	211.0	28	207	6	0	0	3.16	1.11	8.83		442
	2013 Projections		31	31	221.0	31	215	11	0	0	3.10	1.05	8.76		523
2013 Outlook: Few 2012 statistics are more irrelevant than Lee's six wins. They were an aberration of historical proportions: Of the 379 instances in the game's history in which a pitcher managed at least 200 strikeouts with lower than a 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in a season, no one managed fewer wins than Lee. Lee led the majors with both 11 quality start no-decisions and 15 non-win quality starts, and his Phillies afforded him 3.20 runs of support per nine innings, fourth-worst in the majors and considerably beneath the team's 4.22 runs per game for the year. The truth about Lee's 2012 was that he really wasn't any less effective a pitcher than he was in the four seasons that preceded it, and he averaged 16 wins a year from 2008-11. No one has the kind of pinpoint command Lee does; his 7.16 K's per walk the past three seasons combined is tops in the majors. He's a pitcher worth picking to lead your fantasy squad, and his odds of far greater success in four primary rotisserie categories -- instead of only three -- are outstanding.

8. Cole Hamels, Phi SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		31	31	215.1	52	216	17	0	0	3.05	1.12	9.03		525
	2013 Projections		32	32	211.0	51	207	17	0	0	3.24	1.12	8.83		489
2013 Outlook: Hamels is a consistent fellow, one of five major leaguers with at least 20 quality starts and 180 strikeouts with beneath a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in each of the past three seasons. Thanks to the addition of a cutter in 2010, he has produced three years of near-identical statistics in a row, the sum of which placed him seventh in WHIP (1.10), fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.96) and seventh in quality starts (68). He is a legitimate ace whose skills are sometimes underrated due to the fact that he's the youngest of the Phillies' three aces, not to mention the only one without a Cy Young on his résumé. But Hamels is as good a bet to finally capture that hardware as any pitcher on the Phillies roster -- or any roster at that -- and he's one of the most trustworthy bets among the upper tier of fantasy starters.

9. Jered Weaver*, LAA SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		30	30	188.2	45	142	20	0	0	2.81	1.02	6.77		503
	2013 Projections		33	33	209.0	52	181	18	0	0	3.19	1.12	7.79		501
2013 Outlook: There are some warning signs with Weaver that are of concern if you plan on making him your ace. Most notably, his strikeout rate is in freefall to a point that it is a tick below league average. A possible cause for this is a drop in fastball velocity, while his off-speed offerings have all gained a little speed; the differential between the two is narrowing. If Weaver's punchouts continue to wane, his ability to sport an ERA lower than his expected ERA may suffer. Also of concern is Weaver missed three starts last season due to shoulder stiffness. He's recovered, but it does lower his durability points a tick. Putting it all together, Weaver is still worth of fantasy ace status, it's just he's now at the bottom of the tier as opposed to the top like the past couple of seasons.

10. Craig Kimbrel, Atl RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		63	0	62.2	14	116	3	42	0	1.01	0.65	16.66		469
	2013 Projections		69	0	68.0	23	120	4	41	0	1.99	0.85	15.88		451
2013 Outlook: If your strategy is to pay for saves, Kimbrel should be the first name on your list by far. His 2012 season ranked among the all-time best for a closer, if not the best; he set new single-season records in terms of his strikeout rate (50.2 percent of total batters faced, minimum 200), K's per nine innings (16.66, minimum 50 innings), FIP (0.78), batting average allowed (.126) and OPS allowed (.358). That gave him back-to-back campaigns of otherworldly statistics, and the Braves smartly lightened his workload in 2012, trotting him to the hill 63 times -- 17 of those on consecutive days and only twice working three straight -- after 79 times, 28 of those on consecutive days and eight times working three straight in 2011. There is precedent for a reliever managing three consecutive seasons at this level of dominance -- see Gagne, Eric (2002-04), as one such notable example -- so consider Kimbrel your most "trustworthy" relief pitching investment for 2013.

11. Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	199.1	76	207	21	0	0	2.89	1.13	9.35		519
	2013 Projections		33	33	204.0	80	208	19	0	0	3.09	1.24	9.18		471
2013 Outlook: It's not only the change in leagues, affording Gonzalez the advantage of facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup rather than the designated hitter 3-4 times a night, responsible for the left-hander's breakthrough in 2012. The truth is that he has made steady gains in terms of his command each year: His walks per nine and walk rate (percentage of total batters faced) have improved in each of his five big-league seasons, as has his pitches per batter faced. The result wasn't only "Gonzalez the 21-game winner" or "Gonzalez the Cy Young candidate"; the result was the No. 1 pitcher in the game in terms of FIP (2.82), a popular measure of future fantasy success. His velocity is on the rise and he maintained a high level of success throughout the summer, meaning a repeat or something close to it seems likely. Gonzalez has arrived as the kind of pitcher who can lead a fantasy squad.

12. Adam Wainwright, StL SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	198.2	52	184	14	0	0	3.94	1.25	8.34		363
	2013 Projections		33	33	217.0	54	197	16	0	0	3.32	1.14	8.17		465
2013 Outlook: Wainwright's first season fresh off Tommy John surgery wasn't as successful as many hoped, but that's understandable considering he's a pitcher whose "out pitch" is his curveball. He could neither gain a feel for it nor was willing to use it quite as often in the early weeks, and sure enough, in the first half of the season he was 8-for-17 in quality starts with a 4.56 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Wainwright did improve as the summer progressed, however, going 10-for-18 in quality starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in the second half, and throwing his curve 4 percent more often than he did in the first half. He's now in his second year since his operation, the season many cite as the year a pitcher truly recaptures the feel of all his pitches, meaning his ceiling might be restored as a member of the top 10 starting pitchers, which is what he was in 2010. Wainwright will bear some watching during spring training to see whether his curve truly has that fierce break it did pre-surgery, but if it does he might be a value even ranked as generously as we have him.

13. Madison Bumgarner, SF SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	208.1	49	191	16	0	0	3.37	1.11	8.25		445
	2013 Projections		33	33	209.0	48	194	17	0	0	3.23	1.16	8.35		452
2013 Outlook: A 23-year-old seemingly on the upswing of his career, Bumgarner nevertheless had a blip at the end of 2012 that is most responsible for our keeping him out of the game's truly elite class. In his final 10 starts, playoffs included, he had three wins, two quality starts and a 5.92 ERA, his fastball velocity slipped and he leaned increasingly upon his slider, which has the risk of further taxing his young arm. However, grant him the benefit of the doubt -- meaning monitor how he's throwing come March -- and he's worthy of a conversation to be ranked five or more spots higher. Bumgarner is a potential 200-strikeout option, accounting for the strength of that slider, and his ninth-ranked 3.21 FIP the past three seasons combined supports his candidacy to compete for the league's lead in ERA and WHIP. By all rights, he might revert to full strength right out of the gate and put himself into the Cy Young discussion, but the smart folks who draft him will be the ones who track him closely.

14. Yu Darvish, Tex SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		29	29	191.1	89	221	16	0	0	3.90	1.28	10.40		419
	2013 Projections		31	31	207.0	70	223	15	0	0	3.22	1.15	9.70		505
2013 Outlook: Perhaps nothing underscores the difference between Darvish's performance in Japan and during his first year in the U.S. than this statistic: His 89 walks allowed in 2012 were more than twice the 36 he afforded in 2011, despite his having pitched 40 2/3 fewer innings. Right from the start of spring training, Darvish seemed to lack a feel for his pitches, perhaps a sign that he was adapting to the nuances of the U.S. game. But in his defense -- and just as he did in Japan -- he improved with time. Consider that he slashed his walk rate from 4.65 per nine innings before the All-Star break to 3.65 per nine after it, and the result was an eight-start, season-concluding stretch during which time he managed a 2.35 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 10.52 strikeouts per nine. The hoopla surrounding Darvish shouldn't be as great this year as it was last, but his prospects of a significant step forward remain strong. He might not look like the kind of player who could lower his WHIP -- and with it, dramatically improving his value in head-to-head leagues -- but he certainly could, while challenging for the majors' strikeout crown.

15. R.A. Dickey, Tor SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		34	33	233.2	54	230	20	0	0	2.73	1.05	8.86		635
	2013 Projections		33	33	218.0	52	176	17	0	0	3.14	1.14	7.27		485
2013 Outlook: Though historical knuckleball velocity readings aren't readily available, by all accounts no one in the game's history has possessed the ability to throw a knuckleball as fast as Dickey can -- 80-plus mph -- as often as he can. He threw 490 knucklers 80 mph or faster in 2012 and opponents batted .146 against them with a .407 OPS, 92 of his 230 strikeouts coming on those pitches. That helped widen Dickey's arsenal, giving him effectively an extra pitch to go along with his "soft" (sub-75 mph) knuckler and mid-80s fastball, and it flustered hitters to the extent that he had an otherworldly eight-start stretch May 22-June 29 during which time he had a 0.86 ERA and 76 K's en route to winning the National League's Cy Young Award. It's that diversity of pitches that might ease Dickey's transition to the American League, and specifically the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and hitting-rich AL East, as opponents might remain largely unfamiliar with his offerings. It's often said that knuckleballers are the most difficult to project from year to year and that, to a degree, applies to Dickey as well and is the primary reason we wouldn't endorse him as the No. 1 starting pitcher, the spot he occupied on our 2012 Player Rater. But he's also a special knuckleballer with a three-year track record of success, and we're not so sure he doesn't have another elite year in his tank.

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