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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Joel Hanrahan*, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		63	0	59.2	36	67	5	36	0	2.72	1.27	10.11
	2013 Projections		68	0	63.0	25	74	5	34	3	3.00	1.19	10.57
2013 Outlook: After trending downward in walk rate for several years, it all reversed for Hanrahan last season as his control woes resurfaced. In addition, his fly ball rate spiked leading to a high home run rate. But Hanrahan buckled down when it counted as evidenced by his 2.72 ERA and 10.1 K/9. The Red Sox aren't concerned about the 2012 bump in walks and homers, as they feel their coaches can cure what ails Hanrahan after acquiring him to be their closer. Hanrahan's leash will be fairly long, but Boston does have several viable arms in the event Hanrahan's elevated walk and homer rate persist in Beantown.

2. Koji Uehara, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		37	0	36.0	3	43	0	1	7	1.75	0.64	10.75
	2013 Projections		60	0	55.0	7	74	1	1	24	2.95	0.87	12.11
2013 Outlook: Nobody in baseball -- except perhaps Cliff Lee -- possesses Uehara's pinpoint control. He walked three batters (in 36 innings) the entire 2012 season; the closer ahead of him in the Red Sox bullpen, Joel Hanrahan, has walked that many in a game on four occasions in his career as a reliever. That helps keep Uehara's WHIP among the annual relief leaders, at least in seasons he's healthy enough to qualify, and it could make him a fill-in candidate midseason should Hanrahan collapse. Incredibly, though, Uehara hasn't done much in the holds category, with only 35 of 'em in his three big league seasons. This is ratio-seeking at its finest, and little more.

3. Andrew Bailey*, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		19	0	15.1	8	14	1	6	1	7.04	1.89	8.22
	2013 Projections		47	0	47.0	16	45	1	7	15	3.06	1.21	8.62
2013 Outlook: What a tumultuous 2012 Bailey endured. Acquired by the Red Sox just before New Year's Day, the right-hander injured his thumb most of the way through spring training, succumbing to surgery in April that cost him four months' rehabilitation. After returning to the big club, he blew three of nine save chances with a 7.04 ERA, leading to the team's decision to acquire another closer for 2013: Joel Hanrahan. Perhaps it was unfair treatment for Bailey, whose performance was probably a direct result of his slow-to-recover health, but the bottom line is that he's now a setup man, waiting for Hanrahan to (possibly) fail. Bailey's 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four big-league seasons make him useful in AL-only formats, and his closer experience underscores his value as both holds source as well as a handcuff consideration for Hanrahan's owners.

4. Junichi Tazawa, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		37	0	44.0	5	45	1	1	5	1.43	0.95	9.20
	2013 Projections		53	0	58.0	20	52	2	1	16	4.19	1.33	8.07

5. Alfredo Aceves, Bos RP, SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		69	0	84.0	31	75	2	25	0	5.36	1.32	8.04
	2013 Projections		69	0	87.0	34	70	5	0	4	4.34	1.33	7.24
2013 Outlook: One of the most ineffective closers of 2012 -- he blew eight of 33 chances, absorbed 10 losses and had a 5.36 ERA -- Aceves enters camp scarcely even promised a roster spot, let alone a prominent role, with the Red Sox. True, he'd need only an average to slightly above-average spring to make the team, but the Red Sox spent their winter bolstering their bullpen following his sorry performance. Aceves should revert to his swingman/long-reliever role, one that often results in a high enough volume of innings to make his ERA/WHIP count, but he's going to need to give AL-only owners some evidence first.

6. Rubby De La Rosa, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		1	0	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	27.00	3.00	0.00
	2013 Projections		5	3	19.0	10	17	1	0	0	4.26	1.53	8.05

7. Craig Breslow, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		63	0	63.1	22	61	3	0	9	2.70	1.17	8.67
	2013 Projections		67	0	64.0	23	58	2	0	10	3.38	1.28	8.16
2013 Outlook: One of two current major leaguers to hail from Yale, Breslow is a one-inning, underrated setup man rather than the lefty specialist you might initially assume. Righties (.654) have a career OPS only 23 points higher against him than lefties (.631), and he has a 3.00 lifetime ERA that hasn't risen above 3.79 in a single year. Walks are somewhat an issue for Breslow, fueling a so-so 1.23 career WHIP, and we'll also point out that the Red Sox have a deep bullpen this season that might water down their individual holds totals. He could be an AL-only option for ERA, but it might be smarter to make him prove it before adding him in-season.

8. Franklin Morales*, Bos RP, SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		37	9	76.1	30	76	3	1	8	3.77	1.23	8.96
	2013 Projections		64	0	61.0	29	62	2	0	7	4.28	1.41	9.15

9. Clayton Mortensen, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		26	0	42.0	19	41	1	0	1	3.21	1.21	8.79
	2013 Projections		19	4	43.0	21	31	2	0	0	5.02	1.51	6.49

10. Andrew Miller, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		53	0	40.1	20	51	3	0	13	3.35	1.19	11.38
	2013 Projections		59	0	57.0	40	53	4	0	5	5.05	1.67	8.37

11. Pedro Beato, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		11	0	12.0	5	12	1	0	1	6.75	1.33	9.00
	2013 Projections		0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

12. Chris Carpenter, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		8	0	6.0	10	2	1	0	0	9.00	2.83	3.00
	2013 Projections		0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

13. Oscar Villarreal, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
	2013 Projections		0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

14. Alex Wilson, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
	2013 Projections		0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

15. Jose De La Torre, Bos RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9
	2012 Statistics		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
	2013 Projections		0	0	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

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