Complete 2015 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
16. Christian Vazquez*, Bos CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics1751512019330.240.308.309.617
2015 Projections2492832423451.249.310.345.656
2015 Outlook: Vazquez took over starting duties for the Red Sox late in 2014, due to the trade of A.J. Pierzynski and an injury to David Ross, and was serviceable behind the plate and with his bat. The then-rookie slashed .240/.308/.309 and provided very strong defense while also being considered one of the stronger pitch receivers in the league. Now, with Pierzynski and Ross gone for good, Vazquez will likely take over the starting position with Ryan Hanigan backing him up. Vazquez is only 24 and part of the new Red Sox youth movement, so he could still improve his slash line enough to justify starting him regularly.
17. Edward Mujica, Bos RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics64060.014432833.901.386.45
2015 Projections65062.011463683.341.236.68
2015 Outlook: An investment in Mujica is a bet against the durability of Koji Uehara, who turns 40 before Opening Day. Considering Uehara has pitched more than 60 innings in both of the last two seasons and in four of his six seasons overall, it might be better to target another team's second option at closer as a late-round speculative play. After pitching way over his head in 2013, when he put up 2.78 ERA with the Cardinals, Mujica regressed to a more representative 3.90 ERA in 2014. Another major drawback in rostering Mujica over other relievers in similar situations is that he does not offer big-time strikeouts, which puts him in the minority among notable setup men. Mujica has had a strikeout rate below 19 percent in each of the last three seasons, and starting a reliever with a poor strikeout rate who is not getting saves is inadvisable in most cases.
18. Joe Kelly, Bos SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics171796.142666004.201.356.17
2015 Projections2525143.054998004.151.396.23
2015 Outlook: Kelly had impressive rookie and sophomore campaigns in 2012 and 2013, posting a 3.53 ERA and 2.69 ERA in mixed work as a starter and reliever. Last year didn't go as well, as he suffered a hamstring injury in April that sidelined him for nearly three months, and he got roughed up upon his return to the tune of a 7.32 ERA in four July starts. Kelly fared a bit better after a deadline deal to the Red Sox, going 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 10 starts, but it was still the worst of his three seasons to date. Though Boston made a flurry of offseason moves to add starting pitching, Kelly should get the chance to enter spring training as the team's No. 5 pitcher and could be worthy of consideration if he's able to replicate his 2012 or 2013 seasons rather than his 2014 campaign.
19. Jackie Bradley Jr., Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics38445130311218.198.265.266.531
2015 Projections2533232022745.209.285.316.601
2015 Outlook: Bradley demonstrates how quickly a player's value can turn in the game. Two seasons ago, he parlayed a dynamite spring training into a major league job and a ton of buzz about his future with the Red Sox. But it turns out he wasn't capable of making the jump from Double-A to the big leagues after all, and was sent down to Triple-A Pawtucket to finish the season and continue his development. Alas, 2014 was a worse season at the major league level for Bradley, as his strikeout rate spiked to 28.6 percent while his ISO dropped to a miniscule .068. His defense remained excellent, but he's been bypassed by multiple outfielders, both from the outside and from within the Red Sox organization. It will take multiple injuries on the big league roster to create substantial playing time for Bradley, who very well could spend much of 2015 in Rhode Island.
20. Junichi Tazawa, Bos RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics71063.0176440162.861.199.14
2015 Projections61065.0166941212.911.209.55
2015 Outlook: Despite a significant drop in strand rate (82.4 percent in 2013 to 76.5 percent in 2014), Tazawa managed to lower his ERA to 2.86 and his WHIP to 1.19 on the season (from 3.16 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Some of the 28-year-old reliever's advanced stats (2.94 FIP, 3.17 xFIP and .289 BABIP) suggest his season wasn't as good as the surface numbers indicate, but he still turned in a sound season nonetheless. Heading into 2015, there's reason for optimism with Tazawa, with both Koji Uehara and Edward Mujica stumbling in the closer role in 2014. However, both appear to be ahead of him in the pecking order, meaning he will likely require hiccups by the two in 2015 for an opening to present itself. Tazawa does stand an outside chance to get save opportunities in 2015, and he should have a spot near the back end of the bullpen at a minimum.
21. Brock Holt, Bos 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics44968429339812.281.331.381.711
2015 Projections1622221313305.278.335.395.730
2015 Outlook: Due to injuries and poor play by players ahead of him on the depth chart, Holt found his way to 279 plate appearances and a .327/.371/.463 slash line in the first half. He became something of a mythical figure among Red Sox fans and at the same time he developed into a small-sample-size punch line among the pessimistic sabermetric crowd. After hitting .219 in the second half, almost all of his midseason shine is gone, and he will enter 2015 as a strict utility option. Boston has amassed perhaps the best and deepest collection of hitters in the big leagues, leaving nowhere for Holt to play at the moment. In addition to the predictable regression to his batting average, Holt is even less appealing for fantasy purposes, as he figures to hit fewer than five home runs and steal fewer than 10 bases in even the most optimistic part-time role.
22. Daniel Nava, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics3634143733814.270.346.361.706
2015 Projections2062742421462.262.345.379.723
2015 Outlook: It was generally assumed that Nava's tremendous 2013 campaign would afford him a relatively long leash as the primary right fielder in Boston, but he was sent down less than a month into the season after slashing just .149/.240/.269 in his first 17 games. He continued to struggle upon his return in late May, going hitless in his first five games back, but Nava batted .331 over the following two months, albeit with just six extra-base hits and 10 RBIs. Nava posted a .830 OPS with two homers and 17 RBIs in September, but finished with just four homers and a .706 OPS, 125 points below his 2013 mark. While he improved his contact rate to a career-best 86.7 percent, he had a mere .399 OPS from the right side of the plate, leaving him to consider giving up switch-hitting. It would probably be for the best, but Nava's ability from the left side alone might not be enough to earn him regular time to start the year unless Shane Victorino experiences more health issues.
23. Ryan Hanigan, Bos CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics2251853431391.218.318.324.642
2015 Projections3262753942481.245.338.340.678
2015 Outlook: Hanigan was the starter for the Reds as recently as 2012, but he eventually gave way to Devin Mesoraco and landed a backup spot in Tampa Bay. He now finds himself in Boston, backing up Christian Vazquez. The 34-year-old isn't likely to push Vazquez for a starting job unless Vazquez's bat fails enough to land him back in the minors, so Hanigan's fantasy upside is pretty low. He has hit just .208 in his past two seasons combined and isn't especially known for his defense. His experience does probably carry some value for the Red Sox, considering how they have recently prioritized a strong clubhouse environment, but that does little for his fantasy value.
24. Brandon Workman, Bos RP, SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics191587.036701015.171.437.24
2015 Projections221077.029684004.441.387.95
25. Anthony Varvaro, Bos RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics61054.2135030132.631.088.23
2015 Projections55055.0194240113.441.356.87
26. Alexi Ogando, Bos RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics27025.015222176.841.927.92
2015 Projections65065.028544004.021.387.48
27. Heath Hembree, Bos RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics6010.0560004.501.605.40
2015 Projections45045.022472164.801.569.40
28. Henry Owens, Bos SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics----------------------
2015 Projections7740.020433003.381.389.68
29. Blake Swihart, Bos CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics----------------------
2015 Projections708294141.257.293.443.736
30. Robbie Ross, Bos RP, SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics271278.130513026.201.705.86
2015 Projections65065.022574063.601.327.89