Complete 2015 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
1. Max Scherzer, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics3333220.16325218003.151.1810.29
2015 Projections3333216.06026216003.131.1010.92
2015 Outlook: Scherzer followed his 2013 Cy Young year with another solid campaign in 2014, falling just short of some of his peers in the elite tier of starters. He did this despite seeing contract negotiations with the Tigers break down in a very public manner at the start of the season, with the Tigers disclosing the offer that his camp turned down. Much of Scherzer's improvement the past two seasons can be owed to keeping the ball in the park better despite not being a significant ground ball pitcher. Now that he has signed a big contract with the Nationals, he could realistically rack up 275 strikeouts thanks to all the times he will face the light-hitting NL East.
2. Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics3434215.04324214003.141.1210.13
2015 Projections3434218.04924317002.971.0610.03
2015 Outlook: In 2014, the gloves finally truly came off for Strasburg, as he topped 200 innings for the first time. In a way, he's a victim of his own hype, as a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP to go along with 242 strikeouts are elite numbers. But given the way he came up and then made his major league debut, we tend to expect video-game numbers. Those still might come, by the way; he turns 27 this season and still has a mid-90s fastball and snappy curve. One of these years, everything is going to come together for a monster season, and you'll want to be there when it happens.
3. Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics3232199.22918214002.661.078.20
2015 Projections3434216.03617916003.131.137.46
2015 Outlook: Zimmermann emerged as more than just an extreme strike-thrower in 2014, raising his strikeout rate from 18.6 percent to 22.8 percent en route to the finest ratios of his career. While he's throwing a changeup here and there, he mostly relies on pounding opposing hitters with his fastball (93.8 mph on average) and excellent slider. Zimmermann is in the final year of his contract, and the Nats reportedly dabbled in trade talks with the Cubs over the offseason, but nothing materialized. Given that Washington expects to contend in 2015, a midseason trade seems unlikely.
4. Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics2727158.25616210003.571.209.19
2015 Projections3232198.07119613003.411.218.91
2015 Outlook: Gonzalez missed six starts in 2014 due to shoulder inflammation, which has to be frightening for fantasy owners considering him at the draft table. But when he was on the mound, his results were similar to his career numbers, if not better in some instances. His 24.8 percent strikeout rate was better than his career average, and his 8.6 percent walk rate, while not elite, was still the best of his career. He also was a little bit unlucky, as his strand rate was a tick below average at 70.6 percent. Gonzalez did lose half an MPH off his fastball, however, and that's probably not coming back at age 29. Look for him to receive somewhat improved run and bullpen support, and if he stays healthy, his peripherals suggest he'll improve on last year's 3.57 ERA.
5. Doug Fister, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics2525164.0249816002.411.085.38
2015 Projections3030195.03813112003.461.206.05
2015 Outlook: Fister enjoyed a huge 2014 season despite a sharp strikeout rate dip and a strained lat that pushed his season debut to May 9. After getting roughed up by Oakland in that initial start, he reeled off a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 24 outings, going at least five innings in every one and failing to finish six innings just four times. The 14.8 percent strikeout rate, however, was a throwback to his Seattle days after an impressive 19.3 percent with the Tigers. He survived by walking virtually nobody, as his 3.6 percent walk rate was fifth-best among qualified starters; those who did reach were routinely left on base, as his 83.1 percent strand rate paced the league. The indicators can't see a repeat with these same skills, but the real surprise would be a repeat of these skills. The strikeout rate will almost certainly head upward and help negate the dip in strand rate, though you still shouldn't plan on an ERA among the league leaders. Buy the innings and WHIP while hoping that his continued presence on a great team yields another strong win total.
6. Drew Storen, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics65056.11146211201.120.987.35
2015 Projections76066.0155534102.731.127.50
2015 Outlook: Storen had a superb 2014 that saw him ultimately wrest the closer's job from Rafael Soriano at the end of the season, a role that he'll have to begin 2015. But Storen is hardly a stable commodity, as both his performance and his role have fluctuated wildly as a major leaguer. In a way, his experience with the Nats is a microcosm of max-effort relievers as a whole. He burst onto the scene after being a blue-chip prospect, held his own but didn't quite dominate as a rookie, took over the closer's job in his second year in the majors, suffered his first elbow injury, lost his job to a veteran alternative, then finally had the redemption story to get his role back. Storen has changed his approach on the mound, using his changeup more often in the hope of inducing weak groundballs rather than turning to a slider to strike batters out. However, he had a whopping 90.6 percent strand rate and a .271 BABIP against last year, suggesting that some regression might be in order for 2015. Washington signed a former closer, Casey Janssen, this offseason to provide insurance for Storen, but he still figures to have the ninth-inning role to himself to start the season.
7. Tanner Roark, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics3131198.23913815002.851.096.25
2015 Projections1068106.025746103.481.196.28
2015 Outlook: If you stare at Roark's numbers long enough, you start to see a lot of a young Jeremy Hellickson. Like an early Hellickson, Roark has excelled at stranding runners, relying upon command and BABIP fortunes to win 22 games with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over the past two seasons. To date, Roark has stranded 79 percent of his baserunners and has enjoyed a .265 BABIP. These are hard rates to maintain from year to year for any starting pitcher, which puts Roark's ratios at risk for some inflation in 2015 as those rates normalize a bit. However, the extra hits that fall in will be somewhat offset by Roark's stinginess with walks and the fact he does a good job of keeping the ball in the yard. Following the Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer, Roark appears to be the odd-man out of the starting rotation, though it seems likely the team will make another move to free a spot back up for the 28-year-old.
8. Casey Janssen*, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics50045.272832503.941.185.52
2015 Projections56054.0103832213.331.076.33
2015 Outlook: Janssen's 2014 season got off to a rough start, as a shoulder injury sidelined him in spring training, resulting in temporarily losing the closer's job. When Janssen returned, it wasn't clear that he had fully recovered from the injury, as his average fastball velocity dropped another mph from 2013, down to 89.3. There have been plenty of successful non-flamethrower closers, but even accounting for that drop in velocity, Janssen fails to miss an adequate number of bats, with a strikeout rate dropping to 14.6 percent last year. Now set to start the season in a setup role in Washington, Janssen will need Drew Storen to struggle or get injured in order to get a shot at closing games in 2015.
9. Craig Stammen*, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics49072.214564073.841.276.94
2015 Projections50075.020635053.121.257.56
10. Taylor Jordan, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics5525.28170005.611.645.96
2015 Projections40040.011272004.051.336.08
11. Aaron Barrett, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics50040.220493082.661.3010.84
2015 Projections44040.018482142.931.3010.80
12. Blake Treinen, Wsh RP, SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics15750.213302002.491.385.33
2015 Projections50050.016323003.601.425.76
13. Lucas Giolito, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics----------------------
2015 Projections----------------------
14. Xavier Cedeno, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics907.0050003.861.436.43
2015 Projections16015.07171003.001.2710.20
15. Matt Thornton, Wsh RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2014 Statistics64036.082810181.751.147.00
2015 Projections54040.0122830133.381.356.30