Complete 2016 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2016 SEASON STATS
1. Zack Greinke, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics3232222.24020019001.660.848.08
2016 Projections3333221.04920017003.051.118.14
2016 Outlook: Greinke had everything go his way as he pitched his way into Cy Young consideration and a huge payday in free agency this winter. His obscene 1.66 ERA was the lowest by a National League pitcher since Greg Maddux and his 1.63 ERA two decades ago. Greinke finished second on the Player Rater to the Cy Young Award winning Jake Arrieta. He's a lock for double-digit wins as he has hit that total in each of the past eight seasons. He has had some issues with the ratios in previous years, but his WHIP has improved each of the past five seasons while his ERA has nearly done the same. The issue with Greinke is going to be the regression that has to come after a season with a .229 batting average on balls in play and in which he stranded 87 percent of his baserunners. Both rates will regress a bit along with his ERA and WHIP, but he should enjoy very consistent run support from a stacked Arizona lineup.
2. Brad Ziegler, Ari RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics66068.0173603041.850.964.76
2016 Projections67068.0204143203.041.215.43
2016 Outlook: Placing too much fantasy stock in a 36-year-old closer can be a shaky proposition, but Ziegler does figure to slot into that capacity with the D-Backs to open the 2016 campaign. He's earned the job for the moment on the strength of his career-high 30 saves in 2015, which he amassed after being designated for the role in May. Ziegler gets it done with veteran groundball savvy as opposed to power, as he managed a 1.85 ERA that ranked as the second best of his career with the help of an outstanding 6.29 GB/FB rate. He also turned it completely around against right-handed hitters, bringing down the average he surrendered to them a full 100 points below the .279 mark he'd yielded the season prior. While he could be a prolific source of saves once again, just don't look to Ziegler for many strikeouts, as the 7.3 K/9 rate he managed in 2014 proved to be the outlier it was largely suspected to be.
3. Shelby Miller, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics3333205.1731716003.021.257.50
2016 Projections3232200.06916513003.691.257.43
2016 Outlook: Miller was the next big thing heading into the 2014 season, but a season full of struggles knocked him from that perch as his peripheral stats suffered through 31 starts. He got back on track last season, posting the best ERA and FIP of his career on the heels of a home run rate that fell nearly in half from 2014. He was essentially a two-pitch pitcher when he came up in 2013, relying heavily on the fastball and curve while tossing the occasional changeup, but he has since added a cutter to his arsenal that he used to great effect last season, pumping the cutter to a 21-percent frequency to give opposing batters a third timing option between his mid-90s fastball and high-70s curve. His lack of strikeouts and high walk rates put his value at the mercy of balls in play, a frightening proposition as Miller moves to the hitter-friendly confines of Arizona.
4. Patrick Corbin, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics161685.017786003.601.278.26
2016 Projections2727165.04014311003.491.257.80
2016 Outlook: Corbin threw over 180 innings at age 23 in 2012 and exceeded 208 innings at age 24 in 2013. Pop went the elbow during spring training in 2014 and he missed 21 months recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made a nice return in 2015 over 16 starts considering the fact his command was just as good as it was pre-injury, which is a rarity for pitchers returning from TJS. The slider is still his moneymaker and the pitch looked good upon his return, but better fastball command will make the slider look better. Given the lengthy time off, there has to be some kind of inning cap on the young arm as he is still in his mid 20's and that limitation puts him as an end-game pick with quite a bit of upside. That cap and his health are his only risks as he's been rather solid hurler in what are typically the young and volatile years for pitchers.
5. Tyler Clippard, Ari RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics69071.0316451982.921.138.11
2016 Projections71071.0287251253.551.179.13
2016 Outlook: Clippard has thrown more innings (464.1) than any reliever in baseball since the start of the 2010 season, and it is not particularly close, so while he has displayed impressive durability, it also seems like only a matter of time before he breaks down. The Diamondbacks were willing to trust the 31-year-old's track record of health and success, however; inking him to a two-year, $12.25 million deal this offseason. This clouds what was already a potentially fluid bullpen, as Daniel Hudson and Silvino Bracho were intriguing fliers prior to the signing, but Clippard now appears destined to start the year pitching the eighth inning in front of closer Brad Ziegler. In prior years Clippard was useful in deeper leagues, even when he wasn't getting saves, but last year's 21.3 percent K-rate was his lowest since 2008, so he will need to find his way into the closer role to return value in most formats.
6. Robbie Ray, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics2323127.2491195003.521.338.39
2016 Projections2727153.0621469003.761.318.59
2016 Outlook: Ray started the 2015 season in the minors, but he eventually earned a promotion and put together a very respectable year in the majors with a 3.52 ERA (3.53 FIP) with a high strikeout rate of 8.4 K/9. Poor run support and an inability to work deep into games limited the 24-year-old to just a 5-12 record, but that should improve next season even with similar numbers. The main problem for the lefty next season might just be getting the opportunities, as the Diamondbacks made a strong effort to revamp their staff over the offseason, bringing in Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. So while Ray is expected to still have his spot in the rotation, it's hardly a guarantee that he'll stay there throughout the season.
7. Braden Shipley, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics----------------------
2016 Projections7738.018282004.261.456.63
2016 Outlook: Shipley posted another solid season in the minor leagues in 2015. During his second taste of the Double-A level, the right-hander posted a 3.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 156 2/3 innings. He also showed improvement from where he was at in 2014 while with the Bay Bears, reducing his HR/9 to an excellent 0.4 homers per nine and improving his control to the tune of a 3.2 BB/9. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate did decrease to under seven strikeouts per nine innings, but that could come as he logs more innings against upper-level hitters. There's a good likelihood that Shipley will start 2016 in the minor leagues and quite possibly pitch in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the minor leagues in Reno; but if he can hold his own, he may have a shot at joining the Diamondbacks by the season's end.
8. Rubby De La Rosa*, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics3232188.26315014004.671.367.16
2016 Projections2626151.0591218004.591.417.21
2016 Outlook: Rubby DLR fires bullets that average 95 mph, and he breathed such fire for 32 starts last season while batters simply teed off on the fastball. To be fair, they also massacred his changeup, and when the smoke cleared De La Rosa had the second-highest ERA (4.67) in the National League among the 38 qualified starters. He gave up 32 home runs on the season, third-most in the National League, and the 14-9 record is a mirage for his struggles. The Diamondbacks' rotation has a new look this year -- headed by newcomers Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller -- and De La Rosa will fight for one of the last spots in the starting rotation.
9. Daniel Hudson, Ari RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics64167.2257144203.861.329.44
2016 Projections66065.0246741183.881.299.28
2016 Outlook: Following two Tommy John surgeries, Hudson proved his health by pitching out of the bullpen for the entire 2015 season. His average fastball was 2.9 mph faster than his last full season, and he posted a career-high 9.4 K/9. The right-hander's 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP don't jump off the page, but they are his best numbers since his last healthy season in 2011 and could be attributable to bad luck, seeing as his FIP (3.55) was lower than his ERA. He even posted a dominant .186 BAA versus left-handed batters, although his BAA versus righties was a fairly high .291. As long as he can stay healthy, Hudson appears to have a spot locked down in the back of the D-Backs' bullpen, and may even swipe some saves if something happens to Brad Ziegler.
10. Josh Collmenter, Ari RP, SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics4412121.024634113.791.264.69
2016 Projections49085.019525034.021.275.51
2016 Outlook: Things quickly went downhill for Collmenter after beginning the season as the Opening Day starter for the Diamondbacks, as he was moved to the bullpen in early June. The 30-year-old quickly turned a corner, working to a 1.89 ERA in 32 relief appearances -- significantly better than the 5.24 ERA mark he posted in 12 starts. He did struggle generating swings and misses in both roles, though, with a career-worst 4.7 K/9, but he was able to balance that out with a strong 1.8 BB/9. The offseason acquisitions of Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller, along with last season's success after the role change, will likely push Collmenter into a permanent relief position heading into 2016. So while he may benefit from the move, the righty's fantasy value will likely reside mainly in holds.
11. Silvino Bracho, Ari RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics13012.14170101.461.0512.41
2016 Projections20020.06262362.251.1011.70
12. Randall Delgado, Ari RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics64172.0337381133.251.339.13
2016 Projections51070.0306640154.501.378.49
13. Zack Godley, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics9636.217345003.191.258.35
2016 Projections25040.020292004.501.436.53
14. Archie Bradley, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics8835.222232005.801.635.80
2016 Projections6630.018252004.501.577.50
2016 Outlook: Bradley was fantastic in his first three starts of 2015, going 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Unfortunately, he was struck in the face with a line drive in his fourth start against the Rangers, resulting in a sinus fracture. Surprisingly, he was able to come back rather quickly after spending time on the 15-day disabled list, but he struggled to get back on track, posting a 10.91 ERA over his next four games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. Prior to the Diamondbacks signing Zack Greinke and trading for Shelby Miller, the former first-round pick had a chance to secure a spot in the rotation for 2016. However, he is now on the outside looking in as spring training nears and will likely begin the season in Triple-A.
15. Allen Webster, Ari SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2015 Statistics9531.020171005.811.684.94
2016 Projections21030.015231006.301.576.90