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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Justin Upton, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics55410717676312118.280.355.430.785
2013 Projections58310028846713520.281.362.492.854
2013 Outlook: At the dawn of his age-25 season, Upton has 108 home runs and 80 stolen bases on his career résumé & yet inexplicably he is regarded somewhat a disappointment. "So-so" seasons in 2010 and 2012 are the reason. As a 24-year-old last season, he struggled to meet lofty fantasy expectations, perhaps in part due to a thumb injury that plagued him most early in the year. But before you write him off as having reached his peak, consider the following: One, he's still at a stage of a career when more should be expected, being that he's only the seventh player in history to have amassed at least 100 homers and 80 steals through his age-24 campaign, showing how truly impressive his career has been thus far. Two, he's finally freed of the trade rumors that dogged him for months in Arizona, ones that might have had an adverse impact upon his play. And three, Upton did seem to pick up the pace late last year, which bodes well for carrying into 2013; he had .285/.338/.471 rates and a surprisingly low (for him) 16.2 percent strikeout rate the final third of the season. Is this the year he finally realizes his long-predicted MVP potential? Paired with his brother, B.J., in the Braves' outfield, it's possible. Since he shouldn't cost as much as he did a year ago, it's a chance well worth taking.
2. Giancarlo Stanton*, Mia OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics449753786461436.290.361.608.969
2013 Projections5649042103641838.278.357.574.932
2013 Outlook: Stanton's power is prolific. He finished seven home runs off the major league lead and four off the National League lead last season, despite playing 31 games fewer than those respective leaders. And historically speaking, only four players in history managed at least as many as his 93 home runs before their 23rd birthdays -- his was last Nov. 8 -- Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Tony Conigliaro, Alex Rodriguez and Frank Robinson. Stanton did so despite the chatter that the new Marlins Park was cavernous; he managed .304/.372/.591 rates and 16 of his 37 homers there, his home run/fly ball percentage a healthy 20.3. He'd be one of the first players you'd pick if asked to predict the 2013 major league home run champion, but what about his other contributions? The gutted Marlins lack the supporting cast to prop up Stanton's runs and RBIs, and his elevated .344 BABIP despite a negligible change in his frequency of hard contact and an increase in his fly ball rate suggests his .290 batting average might regress. Granted enough pitches to hit, Stanton might hit as many as 50 homers. He might, however, also bat only .260 and struggle to surpass 100 runs or RBIs. Buy, but be careful not to overpay.
3. Josh Hamilton, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics56210343128601627.285.354.577.930
2013 Projections5299334115511247.293.355.558.912
2013 Outlook: After a successful five-year run in Texas that included earning 2010 American League MVP honors and three Silver Sluggers awards while making two World Series appearances, Hamilton signed on with the division-rival Angels during the offseason. In doing so, he gave up the advantages of hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark; he had an OPS 107 points higher and batted 21 points higher there than on the road during his Rangers career. That's not to say that Hamilton's fantasy prospects are doomed by changing venues, as his .294/.356/.514 career rates outside of Rangers Ballpark remain outstanding, and he's joining an Angels lineup potent enough to continue padding his runs/RBIs. Hamilton's greater concerns are his rising swing-and-miss rate -- he missed on a major league-high 36 percent of his swings last season and whiffed 29.3 percent of the time after the All-Star break -- and his propensity for injury, as he averaged 129 games per year with the Rangers, making three trips to the DL. Expect another All-Star season, but his days of .300 batting averages are likely over.
4. Jose Bautista, Tor OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics33264276559635.241.358.527.886
2013 Projections508984110895998.268.387.561.948
2013 Outlook: A left wrist injury he suffered on a swing during a July 16 game derailed the most impressive power streak in baseball the past half-decade: From Sept. 1, 2009, through July 16, 2012, Bautista hit a major league-leading 134 home runs, 34 more than anyone else. Unfortunately, that wrist issue dogged the slugger for the rest of the year, as he aggravated the problem two games into an August return, eventually succumbing to season-ending surgery. Bautista said in January that he has fully healed, but his spring might prove the ultimate test, specifically whether the injury has sapped any of his power. If it fully returns, he'll benefit from the Blue Jays' substantial lineup upgrades in the Nos. 1-2 spots -- Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera combined had an on-base percentage 59 points higher than what the Blue Jays got out of those two spots in 2012 -- and perhaps make another run at top-10-overall status. Keep careful watch on his March.
5. Jason Heyward, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5879327825815221.269.335.479.814
2013 Projections6029330967315422.261.344.478.822
2013 Outlook: And that, fantasy owners, is why it's dangerous to give up on a 22-year-old former No. 1 overall prospect (Heyward was Keith Law's top prospect in 2010). After a sophomore season ruined by shoulder problems and a penchant for weak ground balls, Heyward exploded in his third full big league year, becoming one of 10 players to go 20/20 in 2012. A more aggressive approach helped -- he swung 3 percent more often overall and 10 percent more often on pitches over the inside of the plate -- and the result was a major correction to his ground ball rate. He hit 10 percent fewer grounders, a massive improvement. Better health contributed, and Heyward's bolder approach in stealing bases only bolstered his value. As more of a free-swinger maximizing his power, he's a bit riskier than anticipated in terms of batting average (and therefore points-league value) than when he was rising the minor league chain, but few players possess the 30-homer, 20-steal potential that he does. That the Braves spent the winter retooling their lineup might also help Heyward in terms of RBIs and runs. He's well worth an early-round pick.
6. Jay Bruce, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics560893499621559.252.327.514.841
2013 Projections5749538108681589.267.346.533.879
2013 Outlook: A home run crown might be in Bruce's future, but a batting title surely is not. A .308 career minor league hitter who was always expected to possess plus power, Bruce has adapted his swing as a big leaguer to drive the ball, recognizing his skills are suited to as high as 40-homer outputs at the expense of high strikeout totals. His homer total has increased in every big league year and his ground ball rate has dropped in each, though a rise in his strikeout rate -- his 24.5 percent number in 2012 was a career high -- probably locks his batting average close to last year's .250 range. Picking Bruce means taking a shot at scoring the National League's home run champ, and it means seeking batting average help elsewhere in rotisserie leagues. That's an early-round pick, but not one of the top picks.
7. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5339822595612018.270.340.477.817
2013 Projections5868727936413522.266.339.478.817
2013 Outlook: Harper's Rookie of the Year campaign, an honor earned at the age of 19, put him up there with some of the best players in history. His 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was the most in any single season by a teenager, and he was only the eighth player in history with at least 2.0 WAR solely on offense (he had 3.4). And in terms of fantasy stats, Harper's 22 homers are second-most and his 18 stolen bases third-most by a teenager. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, something fantasy owners have known since the instant he was tabbed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and there should come a time -- sooner rather than later  when he's tallying MVP-caliber statistics, meaning he's one of the most valuable commodities out there in dynasty leagues. Could the transformation happen this season? Perhaps. But Harper did bat .260 after the All-Star break, and both his 20.1 percent strikeout and 45.3 percent ground ball rates for the full year say that it might be a more gradual transformation. There's a danger that Harper buzz could spiral out of control, pushing him close to first-round status. His ceiling is in that class; more realistic expectations should have him just outside of the elite group ... for 2013 alone, that is.
8. Ben Zobrist, TB OF, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5608820749710314.270.377.471.848
2013 Projections5659119829110817.269.369.462.831
2013 Outlook: After a three-year stretch of solid but inconsistent production, Zobrist has turned in consecutive seasons of nearly identical numbers. This should be considered his new baseline with a bit of power upside if he can loft a few more balls. His qualifying at three positions, including second base and shortstop, adds to Zobrist's value. That said, this also might induce some to reach for the veteran switch-hitter. So if you want him, be ready to pay the price. Of note is that Zobrist's excellent walk rate leads to sneaky value in on-base percentage and points leagues.
9. Allen Craig, StL 1B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics46976229237892.307.354.522.876
2013 Projections5488725103431014.296.344.505.850
2013 Outlook: One of the reasons Albert Pujols' bat wasn't terribly missed in St. Louis last summer was the presence of Craig. Cardinals first basemen -- Craig made 86 starts there, or more than half -- managed .293/.348/.485 rates (.832 OPS) in 2012, within range of their .292/.367/.522 (.889) numbers in 2011. Craig's was a major contribution, but the only way it could've been termed unexpected is that he stayed mostly healthy for once. Injuries have long been a weakness; he hasn't appeared in more than 129 games in a single pro year and has played only 76 percent of his team's scheduled games the past five seasons combined. On a rate/per-game basis, Craig belongs right up there with the second tiers of first basemen and outfielders. Considering those aren't difficult positions to fill in mixed leagues in-season during the times he's absent, he's well worth the early-round pick.
10. Alex Rios, CWS OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics605932591269223.304.334.516.850
2013 Projections579832073288120.276.312.451.762
2013 Outlook: Rios has the reputation of being an every-other-year player, with 2013 slated to be a down year, but Rios' struggles in 2011 are more likely to be an outlier than the off year in a trend. Rios' contact and line-drive rates that year were in line with career norms; he was just snakebitten with a low BABIP that affected his overall production. That said, last season everything went right, as Rios set career highs in both BABIP and HR/FB, so normal regression should be anticipated. Still, this presents a buying opportunity since the market likely will depress Rios' value more than it should. If Rios sits atop your cheat sheet, don't be afraid to pull the trigger. The every-other-year label is unwarranted.
11. Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5988816677315021.283.373.441.815
2013 Projections5749217597313821.280.372.441.813
2013 Outlook: Choo bounced back from a down 2011 campaign, which was marred by injuries and dealing with a DUI. Many expect the move to Cincinnati will help Choo regain some lost power. The problem is that Choo's old digs, Progressive Field, increase left-handed power at a rate equal to the Great American Ball Park. In addition, Choo's home runs were depressed last season as a result of a big drop in fly ball rate; his HR/FB was normal. Choo will always carry some risk, as his strikeout rate is high and he thus relies on a high BABIP to maintain his batting average. When healthy, though, Choo hits enough line drives to support an elevated BABIP. Choo's power/speed combo is enticing. Just temper expectations despite a perceived friendlier hitting venue.
12. Mark Trumbo, LAA OF, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics544663295361534.268.317.491.808
2013 Projections568703297351386.262.308.482.791
2013 Outlook: Trumbo has gotten off to hot starts in each of his two big league seasons only to cool considerably after the All-Star break. As he was better overall in 2012 than 2011, are we to assume he's still trending upward but needs to build greater stamina, or is it possible he's a first-half performer who warrants trading away by midseason? Tuck that thought away, but those who stick with Trumbo all year should know that he's a legitimate power source, capable of annual 30-homer totals, and batting behind such names as Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton could drive his RBI total above 100. Trumbo is a free-swinger with batting average risk, but if you address that category at other positions, he's well worth taking in the early to mid rounds in rotisserie formats.
13. Shane Victorino, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics595721155538039.255.321.383.704
2013 Projections568821161537228.266.334.408.742
2013 Outlook: Last season Victorino set career lows in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox are hoping this was just a down year, as they signed the "Flyin' Hawaiian" to patrol right field for the next three seasons. On the plus side, Victorino's contact rate is still stellar and the Green Monster could be just what a falling BABIP needs. In addition, Victorino did set a career high with 39 steals, so he still has good speed. With him hitting near the top of a revamped Boston order, the parts are in place for Victorino to have a bounce-back campaign across the board, with the exception of homers, as Fenway depresses power. If your preference is to get steals spread among several players, Victorino is an intriguing target, since his price is likely to be depressed coming off such a disappointing campaign.
14. Hunter Pence, SF OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6178724104561455.253.319.425.743
2013 Projections594842396531258.276.336.455.791
2013 Outlook: Pence is an accumulator; he has good but not great skills, and accrues a bounty of counting stats because he is very durable and rarely misses a game. More of the same can be expected this season, although a full year in AT&T Park could chop a couple of homers off Pence's total. Of small concern is that Pence's contact rate last season was a career low, although he deserves the benefit of the doubt that it was just variance and not a loss of skill. This type of player is often shunned in lieu of sexier names with greater upside. Thus, Pence is potentially an underpriced but stabilizing fantasy contributor.
15. Carlos Beltran, StL OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5478332976512413.269.346.495.842
2013 Projections50575258562938.285.363.505.868
2013 Outlook: A first half reminiscent of his salad days led to Beltran cracking the 30-homer plateau for the first time since 2007, with 20 of his 32 bombs coming before the All-Star break. After the break, his average also suffered, as he hit .296 before and only .236 after. Combine Beltran's second-half swoon with the likelihood he won't make it through consecutive seasons without an injury, and he's a risky play. If someone in your league wants to pay for Beltran's surprising 2012, don't stop them. However, if he slides enough to buffer a drop in production and playing time, he still has enough pop to make a difference.
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