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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		622	109	44	139	66	98	4	.330	.393	.606	.999
	2013 Projections		595	116	39	127	86	93	3	.336	.419	.607	1.026
2013 Outlook: Accomplishments like the Triple Crown matter in fantasy baseball, and apparently in the awards races, too, as Cabrera won the American League's MVP award after becoming the first to lead his respective league in batting average, home runs and RBIs in 45 years. He did it despite dealing with the adjustment back to third base, a position he hadn't manned regularly in five years, albeit one that helped boost his fantasy appeal. To illustrate, from 2010-12, the average third basemen hit six fewer home runs per year than the average first baseman. Cabrera will turn 30 years old in April, still arguably within his prime, and he'll be a heart-of-the-order hitter for a Tigers lineup that added Torii Hunter and gets back Victor Martinez from injury, not to mention has playoff aspirations and therefore will always be looking to improve. His chances at a repeat are excellent, and thanks to his new position eligibility, he's a bona fide candidate to be the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball in 2013.

2. Robinson Cano, NYY 2B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		627	105	33	94	61	96	3	.313	.379	.550	.929
	2013 Projections		627	106	33	109	54	91	6	.313	.373	.555	.928
2013 Outlook: Now 30 years old and in the prime of his career, Cano is riding a streak of four consecutive seasons with at least a .300 batting average and 25 home runs. To put that into historical perspective, only one second baseman in history has had more such seasons in his entire career: Rogers Hornsby, who had five. Cano is the best run-producing second baseman in fantasy baseball, he has Yankee Stadium's short porch helping his cause -- he has hit 21 more home runs there (68) than on the road (47) since it opened -- and he's playing for a new contract this summer. If he has any warts, they're either his career-worst performance against lefties in 2012 (.239/.309/.337), his rising swing-and-miss rate (20 percent, up 2 percent from 2011) or the fact that his Yankees lack some of the firepower that their teams of the past decade had, impacting his runs/RBIs potential. But we admit that we're nitpicking; Cano's chances at another top-10-in-the-game season remain outstanding.

3. Albert Pujols, LAA 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		607	85	30	105	52	76	8	.285	.343	.516	.859
	2013 Projections		614	102	34	115	64	68	10	.300	.367	.533	.900
2013 Outlook: Pick your side of the argument: Is Pujols' five-year trend of declining OPS, plus his early-season struggles with the Angels, a sign of his hitting the down slope of his career? Or were Pujols' 2012 first-quarter issues an obvious indication of a league adjustment, and his .310/.373/.584, 27-homer, 87-RBI performance in the final three quarters, a stronger indication that he has plenty left in the tank? In his defense, most of his best career comparables remained superstars through their age-33 seasons, and his Angels did quite a job bolstering his supporting offensive cast when they signed free agent Josh Hamilton. Pujols might no longer be a batting title contender, or perhaps not even a lock for .300, and his new baseline in homers might be closer to 30 than 40, but even at his new levels of production he'll pile up the runs and RBIs. No longer a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, Pujols nevertheless ranks up there with the 10 best in the game.

4. Joey Votto, Cin 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		374	59	14	56	94	85	5	.337	.474	.567	1.041
	2013 Projections		553	95	28	98	117	123	9	.320	.441	.561	1.001
2013 Outlook: Votto last season finally faced adversity for the first time as a big leaguer, succumbing to a pair of knee surgeries, one in July and one in August, that sapped his power following his late-season return. In 30 games, playoffs included, he went 127 plate appearances without a home run, his fly ball rate 33 percent and his at-bats per double 11.8. Compare that to his stats last year before landing on the DL: 14 home runs in 370 PAs, 36 percent fly ball rate, 8.3 at-bats per double. In other words, it'd be nice to see Votto mashing during spring training. But even without that evidence, the winter's rest should've done him some good, he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in one of the best lineups in baseball, and he possesses some of the most balanced splits in the game. Votto has a higher lifetime road (.981) OPS than at home (.954), and his .913 OPS against left-handers the past three seasons ranks No. 1 among left-handed hitters. Why shouldn't we believe he's capable of recapturing his MVP form?

5. Prince Fielder, Det 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		581	83	30	108	85	84	1	.313	.412	.528	.940
	2013 Projections		576	97	35	116	100	99	1	.313	.423	.556	.979
2013 Outlook: One of the game's premier power sources, Fielder's 258 home runs since the beginning of 2006 rank third-best and 754 RBIs fifth-best in the majors. But what has made Fielder, now 28, such a valuable commodity in fantasy is his soaring rate of contact. The son of Cecil Fielder, who had a 22.2 percent career strikeout rate, Prince whiffed a career-low 12.2 percent of the time in 2012, a number his father never came close to attaining. That helped explain his career-best .313 batting average, and it's a skills improvement that might potentially elevate him into the first round in mixed leagues considering he bats in the heart of an improved lineup with Miguel Cabrera, who has a lifetime .395 on-base percentage, slotted ahead of him. Despite playing a deep position, Fielder is the kind of elite slugger worth his price tag.

6. Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		181	33	8	27	19	19	2	.287	.360	.486	.846
	2013 Projections		544	92	30	102	58	79	9	.301	.371	.540	.911
2013 Outlook: Fantasy owners will be tempted to apply the "injury-prone" label to Tulowitzki. After all, he has averaged only 120 games played in his six full seasons, made four trips to the DL during that span and missed the Rockies' final 113 games of 2012 due to a groin injury that required surgery to remove scar tissue. Tulowitzki is expected to be fully recovered in time for the spring, but he'll be among those players most closely watched in March, as there's no denying he's one of the most valuable at his position when healthy. To that end, from 2010-12, he managed .305/.374/.545 rates while averaging 34 home runs, 118 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and 106 runs scored per 162 games. And from a career perspective, Alex Rodriguez is the only shortstop with more seasons (6) of at least a .290 batting average, 25 home runs and a .900 OPS other than Tulowitzki (3, 2009-11). It's a risky move to draft him in the first three rounds, but one that could have a substantial reward.

7. Buster Posey, SF C, 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		530	78	24	103	69	96	1	.336	.408	.549	.957
	2013 Projections		550	76	24	98	67	94	2	.318	.392	.520	.912
2013 Outlook: Few players historically were more obvious choices for Comeback Player of the Year honors than Posey in 2012. Remember, one year ago at this time, our last image of Posey was the nasty home-plate collision with Florida Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins on May 25, 2011, that resulted in a fractured fibula, torn ankle ligaments and serious questions whether Posey could ever return to the daily chores of catching. Return to catching he did, and return to excellence at bat he did. He became the first catcher in 13 seasons to manage at least a .330 batting average, 20 home runs and 100 RBIs, and the result was the National League's MVP award. Again from a historical perspective, Posey's career ascent looks much like that of Mike Piazza, a Hall of Fame candidate: Posey has .314/.380/.503 rates in 308 career games in his first three seasons, while Piazza had .312/.364/.537 in 277 games in his first three. This is a once-in-a-generation catching talent, one who gets enough "time off" at first base to keep him healthy, and one who is so valuable relative to replacement at the position to warrant being one of the first picks off the board.

8. David Wright, NYM 3B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		581	91	21	93	81	112	15	.306	.391	.492	.883
	2013 Projections		593	93	27	100	82	129	17	.287	.373	.494	.867
2013 Outlook: The Mets' clear franchise player after they signed him during the winter to an eight-year, $138 million extension through 2020, Wright has proven himself well worth the label after adapting his game to the team's more pitching-friendly ballpark. Citi Field's spacious fences have forced him to adapt his swing more for contact -- he whiffed only 16.7 percent of the time in 2012, after three straight years above 20 percent -- and Wright began to use the entire field last year once the Mets shrunk the outfield dimensions slightly. This is not a lock of a 30-homer power source, or a batting title contender, but rather a complete player who might challenge for .300 and 25, plus one who has averaged 20 steals over his eight full big league seasons. The sum is one of the most balanced contributors in all rotisserie categories, a rarity at third base and someone who warrants a pick in the first two rounds in any league format -- first round if the league (NL-only?) is deep enough.

9. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		604	95	36	102	36	82	1	.321	.359	.561	.921
	2013 Projections		579	95	34	107	33	71	3	.313	.350	.556	.906
2013 Outlook: Texas certainly seems to agree with Beltre. In his two seasons with the Rangers, he's a .338/.381/.644 hitter with 43 home runs at Rangers Ballpark, his slugging percentage tops among qualifiers and his homers second-most during that span. But don't let that convince you that he's a mere ballpark product; his .283 average and 25 homers on the road the past two seasons combined would be well worthy of having in any fantasy lineup. Now 34 years old (as of April 7) -- remarkable that he's that young for a 15-year veteran -- Beltre has shed the label of career disappointment and developed into one of the more consistently reliable options at his position. At worst, he's a .290-hitting, 25-homer candidate. To put that into fantasy terms, only three other third basemen have met those minimums in any of the past three seasons: Miguel Cabrera (2012), Aramis Ramirez (2011-12) and Ryan Zimmerman (2010).

10. Evan Longoria, TB 3B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		273	39	17	55	33	61	2	.289	.369	.527	.896
	2013 Projections		538	92	34	109	77	114	8	.294	.385	.550	.935
2013 Outlook: Longoria is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the most injury-prone players in the game, and to an extent that's fair. He has played only 637 of 800 scheduled Rays games since his big league debut and made three trips to the DL, though in his defense two could be termed fluky: He suffered a fractured wrist on a hit-by-pitch in 2008, and his partially torn left hamstring last year was the result of a slide into second on a stolen base attempt. Picking Longoria in the early rounds requires a leap of faith, so we'll give you his 2012 stats prorated to 162 games to outline your hope: .289 batting average, 36 home runs, 116 RBIs, 82 runs scored. Fantasy owners in points-based leagues might be more apt to chance it; he's one of the better players in terms of plate discipline, his 0.67 walks-per-strikeout ratio the past three seasons combined ranking him in the upper 20 percent of qualifiers. Longoria belongs in the discussion for the top 25 overall players in any format on skills, but the longer he slides in your draft, the comfier you'll feel.

11. Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		563	81	15	65	48	60	20	.290	.347	.449	.797
	2013 Projections		600	92	17	70	67	70	20	.293	.364	.453	.818
2013 Outlook: It was not the best year for Pedroia or his right hand. In early May, the diminutive second baseman sprained his right thumb, but he toughed it out at the expense of production, as evidenced by his uncharacteristically poor pre-All-Star-break line of .266 with only six homers and six steals. Then in late July, Pedroia tore a ligament in his right pinkie, which necessitated offseason surgery. The pinkie did not bother Pedroia nearly as much, as he returned to form, going .318 with nine homers and an impressive 20 steals after the break. Pedroia could be moved down in the order, leading to more RBI opportunities. Regardless, the former rookie of the year and MVP should again be among the most valuable second basemen.

12. Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		655	105	19	72	60	90	21	.256	.326	.423	.749
	2013 Projections		615	103	23	68	72	79	21	.265	.349	.450	.799
2013 Outlook: My, how quickly a player sheds the injury-prone label. After making two trips to the DL in 2010 alone while averaging 124 games played per year from 2006-10, Kinsler amassed the most plate appearances in baseball the past two seasons combined, sitting out only 12 games total in 2011-12. This afforded him the opportunity to total 51 home runs and 51 stolen bases in those two years, making him the only second baseman and one of only three players overall to amass at least 50 of each. With health no longer a valid criticism, Kinsler's only weakness is batting average, odd considering he had a remarkably low strikeout rate (11.4 percent) and swing-and-miss rate (11.8 percent) in those two seasons. No matter -- it's that contact ability that makes him one of the most attractive selections in points-based leagues. Kinsler also makes a compelling case to be picked in the first three rounds in rotisserie, too, considering his skills relative to his second-base brethren.

13. Jose Reyes*, Tor SS	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		642	86	11	57	63	56	40	.287	.347	.433	.780
	2013 Projections		578	88	10	47	51	50	34	.291	.345	.441	.787
2013 Outlook: Part of the Miami Marlins' 2012 one-year-and-done spending spree, Reyes was traded to the Blue Jays in November in one of the largest salary dumps in baseball history. Frankly, from a fantasy perspective, the Marlins did Reyes a favor. In Toronto, he'll bat atop the most potent lineup he has been a part of in at least five years, and keep in mind that in 2008 he scored 113 runs to finish fifth in the majors in the category. Reyes was a top-10-caliber fantasy player back then, and that's his upside in 2013, the primary reason why he's not ranked as such with the injuries he has since battled. He made two separate trips to the DL for hamstring issues in 2011 and has missed occasional contests with hamstring and oblique injuries in the past three years. Plus, as a soon-to-be 30-year-old (June 11), he might not quite be as physically equipped to man the Rogers Centre's artificial turf on an every-night basis. Don't let Reyes slip deep into your draft, especially considering the dearth of quality shortstops, but beware of inflating your expectations of him in his new city.

14. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		542	93	42	110	84	94	13	.280	.384	.557	.941
	2013 Projections		554	93	36	99	71	92	10	.283	.369	.534	.904
2013 Outlook: Like teammate Jose Bautista two seasons before him, Encarnacion blossomed in the power department during his age-29 campaign. As Bautista did, Encarnacion warmed to hitting coach Dwayne Murphy's "pick your pitch, then swing hard" philosophy, and it helped that he both adjusted his swing and shed 10 pounds before the season, increasing his bat speed. Encarnacion swatted 42 home runs -- 28 of them pulled to left field, another Bautista-esque trait -- in 151 games, four more than he had hit in 2010-11 combined and only eight shy of Bautista's breakout 2010 total albeit in 10 fewer contests. He also maintained his power throughout, hitting 19 homers after the All-Star break and seven in September, though he gave back much of his batting-average gains late, hitting .261 in the second half and .238 in September. Encarnacion's power is legit and his 14.6 percent strikeout rate eases those batting average concerns somewhat. Like Bautista, he should be good for a few more years of power totals that rank among the league's leaders.

15. Starlin Castro, ChC SS	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		646	78	14	78	36	100	25	.283	.323	.430	.753
	2013 Projections		658	87	13	73	36	100	24	.296	.334	.435	.769
2013 Outlook: Castro has absorbed his share of criticism for an alleged lack of focus during his three seasons in the bigs, but in his defense, he batted .306/.367/.464 -- all of those higher than his career rates to date -- in the final third of 2012 following his inking a seven-year, $60 million extension with the Cubs. So is it fair to sling barbs his way? The kid begins 2013 at only age 23, and his accomplishments to date rank within range of the greatest shortstops in the game's history; his 529 career hits are fourth-most by any shortstop through his age-22 campaign. Castro has already proven to fantasy owners his durability -- he played all but 11 innings at shortstop last year -- speed and ability to hit for a high average, and scouts felt earlier in his pro career that he had the potential to develop more power. Castro might take only baby steps by year, considering a player's prime is usually in the ages 25 to 30 range, but stepping up his 2012 production would result in a top-25 player.

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