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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Ryan Braun, Mil OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		598	108	41	112	63	128	30	.319	.391	.595	.987
	2013 Projections		599	108	36	111	63	113	29	.319	.389	.576	.965
2013 Outlook: Question Braun? He has answers. After having his 2011 National League MVP award cast under a shroud of controversy -- it was announced weeks after he won it that he had tested positive for PEDs and faced a 50-game suspension, a ban overturned on appeal -- Braun put forth a 2012 that was practically as good, eliminating any doubt of his abilities. He had more home runs (41 in 2012, 33 in 2011) and RBIs (112 and 111), and was comparable in OPS (.987 and .994) and WAR (6.8 and 7.7). Braun did so despite the free-agent departure of Prince Fielder the previous January; Fielder had batted behind Braun 147 times the year before, Braun's accomplishments in spite of that demonstrating the fallacies of "lineup protection." Since Braun's May 27, 2007, debut, he is one of three players to total at least a .300 batting average, 200 home runs and 600 apiece of runs and RBIs -- Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are the others -- and he's the only one of the three with more than 100 steals. He's a five-category fantasy superstar and, at age 29, makes as strong a case for the first pick in the draft as there is.

2. Mike Trout, LAA OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		559	129	30	83	67	139	49	.326	.399	.564	.963
	2013 Projections		615	112	22	69	60	149	46	.285	.351	.472	.823
2013 Outlook: We have never seen a rookie season like the one Trout just put forth. We might never again. He became the first rookie -- and youngest player -- in history to join the 30/30 club, the first player (not just rookie, player) to manage at least 30 home runs, 45 stolen bases and 125 runs in a season, and only the fourth player to bat at least .320 with 30 homers at the age of 20 or younger (Mel Ott, Ted Williams and Alex Rodriguez are the others). Trout also did so while providing outstanding defense -- his 21 Defensive Runs Saved were third-most among outfielders -- assuring he'll remain a fixture in the Angels' everyday lineup. We might have just witnessed the best year of Trout's career, and obviously his chances of regressing somewhat are high. But to what extent? His MVP-race detractors routinely pointed out his "late-season swoon," which amounted to a .269/.369/.455 line with six homers and eight steals; those project to 26 homers and 35 steals over a full year. Well, we've done the math for you: Even that level of performance would still earn Trout an easy place among the three most productive players in fantasy baseball. Talk about a downside -- or, in this case, lack thereof.

3. Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		593	107	31	96	70	132	20	.327	.400	.553	.953
	2013 Projections		599	101	27	91	81	126	24	.299	.384	.509	.894
2013 Outlook: Looking for a catalyst for the Pirates' incredible run the first four months of last season? Look no further than McCutchen, who in 2012 added 51 points of batting average and 131 points of OPS to his 2009-11 cumulative numbers, while becoming only the fifth player in Pirates history, and first in seven years, to manage a 30/20 season. That resulted in the fourth-best fantasy season by any individual player. McCutchen's critics will cite his .375 BABIP, fourth-highest in the league and 78 points higher than the major league average; we'll counter with his .282 well-hit average (percentage of his at-bats in which he made hard contact), also fourth-highest and 85 points higher than the average, meaning that his BABIP should have been higher than usual. Just 26 years of age, McCutchen is at the dawn of his big-league prime. He's a first-rounder for sure, and with a stronger supporting cast -- read: runs/RBIs -- he might make a compelling case for No. 1.

4. Matt Kemp, LAD OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		403	74	23	69	40	103	9	.303	.367	.538	.906
	2013 Projections		559	98	33	103	60	147	17	.297	.367	.540	.907
2013 Outlook: Fantasy's No. 1 player in 2011, Kemp, for the first six weeks last season, appeared on track to repeat the effort. Then hamstring injuries struck; they would cost him 51 of 162 Dodger games in 2012 and cast doubt upon his future production in the stolen base department, a key part of his fantasy game. Projecting his output to a full year, he'd have stolen only 14 bases, still his worst total in his five seasons as a regular. Still, even if that's Kemp's new baseline in the category, he's an in-his-prime 28-year-old whose contributions with his bat should easily elevate him into the top 10 -- and arguably top five -- in mixed leagues, and make him a viable No. 2 pick in NL-only formats. Consider his per-162-game rates the past three seasons: .291 batting average, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs, 103 runs scored. The primary question about Kemp this spring should be the condition of his shoulder, which required surgery in October, though most indications are that he should be ready by Opening Day. If so, considering the Dodgers' intent to improve the talent surrounding him, Kemp should again rank among the leaders in homers, RBIs and runs scored.

5. Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		518	89	22	85	56	115	20	.303	.371	.510	.881
	2013 Projections		534	95	26	94	53	117	22	.301	.366	.522	.888
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez's propensity for minor aches and pains were the one thing keeping him from true fantasy superstardom the past two seasons, as while he made only one trip to the DL during that time, he missed 62 games combined. Scale his statistics in 2011-12 to 162 games played, however, and he'd have been a .299 hitter with 30 home runs, 110 RBIs, 25 stolen bases and 112 runs scored. Those are smarter baselines than what he did during his Player Rater-leading 2010 campaign, during which a .384 BABIP fueled his completely unrealistic .336 batting average. Fortunately for Gonzalez, he still has Coors Field helping his cause -- he has a career OPS 328 points higher there (1.054) than everywhere else (.726) -- and he's still only 27 years old, meaning he's not at a point in his career at which the injuries should be a major concern. Heck, with some luck in that department, he could make a run at top honors on the Player Rater again.

6. Justin Upton, Atl OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		554	107	17	67	63	121	18	.280	.355	.430	.785
	2013 Projections		583	100	28	84	67	135	20	.281	.362	.492	.854
2013 Outlook: At the dawn of his age-25 season, Upton has 108 home runs and 80 stolen bases on his career résumé & yet inexplicably he is regarded somewhat a disappointment. "So-so" seasons in 2010 and 2012 are the reason. As a 24-year-old last season, he struggled to meet lofty fantasy expectations, perhaps in part due to a thumb injury that plagued him most early in the year. But before you write him off as having reached his peak, consider the following: One, he's still at a stage of a career when more should be expected, being that he's only the seventh player in history to have amassed at least 100 homers and 80 steals through his age-24 campaign, showing how truly impressive his career has been thus far. Two, he's finally freed of the trade rumors that dogged him for months in Arizona, ones that might have had an adverse impact upon his play. And three, Upton did seem to pick up the pace late last year, which bodes well for carrying into 2013; he had .285/.338/.471 rates and a surprisingly low (for him) 16.2 percent strikeout rate the final third of the season. Is this the year he finally realizes his long-predicted MVP potential? Paired with his brother, B.J., in the Braves' outfield, it's possible. Since he shouldn't cost as much as he did a year ago, it's a chance well worth taking.

7. Giancarlo Stanton*, Mia OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		449	75	37	86	46	143	6	.290	.361	.608	.969
	2013 Projections		564	90	42	103	64	183	8	.278	.357	.574	.932
2013 Outlook: Stanton's power is prolific. He finished seven home runs off the major league lead and four off the National League lead last season, despite playing 31 games fewer than those respective leaders. And historically speaking, only four players in history managed at least as many as his 93 home runs before their 23rd birthdays -- his was last Nov. 8 -- Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Tony Conigliaro, Alex Rodriguez and Frank Robinson. Stanton did so despite the chatter that the new Marlins Park was cavernous; he managed .304/.372/.591 rates and 16 of his 37 homers there, his home run/fly ball percentage a healthy 20.3. He'd be one of the first players you'd pick if asked to predict the 2013 major league home run champion, but what about his other contributions? The gutted Marlins lack the supporting cast to prop up Stanton's runs and RBIs, and his elevated .344 BABIP despite a negligible change in his frequency of hard contact and an increase in his fly ball rate suggests his .290 batting average might regress. Granted enough pitches to hit, Stanton might hit as many as 50 homers. He might, however, also bat only .260 and struggle to surpass 100 runs or RBIs. Buy, but be careful not to overpay.

8. Josh Hamilton, LAA OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		562	103	43	128	60	162	7	.285	.354	.577	.930
	2013 Projections		529	93	34	115	51	124	7	.293	.355	.558	.912
2013 Outlook: After a successful five-year run in Texas that included earning 2010 American League MVP honors and three Silver Sluggers awards while making two World Series appearances, Hamilton signed on with the division-rival Angels during the offseason. In doing so, he gave up the advantages of hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark; he had an OPS 107 points higher and batted 21 points higher there than on the road during his Rangers career. That's not to say that Hamilton's fantasy prospects are doomed by changing venues, as his .294/.356/.514 career rates outside of Rangers Ballpark remain outstanding, and he's joining an Angels lineup potent enough to continue padding his runs/RBIs. Hamilton's greater concerns are his rising swing-and-miss rate -- he missed on a major league-high 36 percent of his swings last season and whiffed 29.3 percent of the time after the All-Star break -- and his propensity for injury, as he averaged 129 games per year with the Rangers, making three trips to the DL. Expect another All-Star season, but his days of .300 batting averages are likely over.

9. Jose Bautista, Tor OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		332	64	27	65	59	63	5	.241	.358	.527	.886
	2013 Projections		508	98	41	108	95	99	8	.268	.387	.561	.948
2013 Outlook: A left wrist injury he suffered on a swing during a July 16 game derailed the most impressive power streak in baseball the past half-decade: From Sept. 1, 2009, through July 16, 2012, Bautista hit a major league-leading 134 home runs, 34 more than anyone else. Unfortunately, that wrist issue dogged the slugger for the rest of the year, as he aggravated the problem two games into an August return, eventually succumbing to season-ending surgery. Bautista said in January that he has fully healed, but his spring might prove the ultimate test, specifically whether the injury has sapped any of his power. If it fully returns, he'll benefit from the Blue Jays' substantial lineup upgrades in the Nos. 1-2 spots -- Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera combined had an on-base percentage 59 points higher than what the Blue Jays got out of those two spots in 2012 -- and perhaps make another run at top-10-overall status. Keep careful watch on his March.

10. Jason Heyward, Atl OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		587	93	27	82	58	152	21	.269	.335	.479	.814
	2013 Projections		602	93	30	96	73	154	22	.261	.344	.478	.822
2013 Outlook: And that, fantasy owners, is why it's dangerous to give up on a 22-year-old former No. 1 overall prospect (Heyward was Keith Law's top prospect in 2010). After a sophomore season ruined by shoulder problems and a penchant for weak ground balls, Heyward exploded in his third full big league year, becoming one of 10 players to go 20/20 in 2012. A more aggressive approach helped -- he swung 3 percent more often overall and 10 percent more often on pitches over the inside of the plate -- and the result was a major correction to his ground ball rate. He hit 10 percent fewer grounders, a massive improvement. Better health contributed, and Heyward's bolder approach in stealing bases only bolstered his value. As more of a free-swinger maximizing his power, he's a bit riskier than anticipated in terms of batting average (and therefore points-league value) than when he was rising the minor league chain, but few players possess the 30-homer, 20-steal potential that he does. That the Braves spent the winter retooling their lineup might also help Heyward in terms of RBIs and runs. He's well worth an early-round pick.

11. Adam Jones, Bal OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		648	103	32	82	34	126	16	.287	.334	.505	.839
	2013 Projections		630	90	29	92	32	124	15	.287	.331	.487	.818
2013 Outlook: Jones' career has followed an almost perfect aging curve, culminating in career highs in games played (162), plate appearances (697), hits (186), doubles (39), home runs (32), runs scored (103), batting average (.287) and slugging percentage (.505) as a 26-year-old in 2012. Though his performance might be somewhat glossed over by the so-called "Orioles magic," in truth his output shouldn't have been unexpected. He has long been regarded a budding power hitter with above-average speed; his weakness is that his plate discipline hasn't improved to the point where he'll ever be an asset in terms of batting average. What we saw from Jones in 2012 might have been about his peak expectation, but he's only entering the prime years of his career. Might there be more? It's possible, but his drafting owners would hardly complain if the result was an out-and-out repeat.

12. Jay Bruce, Cin OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		560	89	34	99	62	155	9	.252	.327	.514	.841
	2013 Projections		574	95	38	108	68	158	9	.267	.346	.533	.879
2013 Outlook: A home run crown might be in Bruce's future, but a batting title surely is not. A .308 career minor league hitter who was always expected to possess plus power, Bruce has adapted his swing as a big leaguer to drive the ball, recognizing his skills are suited to as high as 40-homer outputs at the expense of high strikeout totals. His homer total has increased in every big league year and his ground ball rate has dropped in each, though a rise in his strikeout rate -- his 24.5 percent number in 2012 was a career high -- probably locks his batting average close to last year's .250 range. Picking Bruce means taking a shot at scoring the National League's home run champ, and it means seeking batting average help elsewhere in rotisserie leagues. That's an early-round pick, but not one of the top picks.

13. Bryce Harper, Wsh OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		533	98	22	59	56	120	18	.270	.340	.477	.817
	2013 Projections		586	87	27	93	64	135	22	.266	.339	.478	.817
2013 Outlook: Harper's Rookie of the Year campaign, an honor earned at the age of 19, put him up there with some of the best players in history. His 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was the most in any single season by a teenager, and he was only the eighth player in history with at least 2.0 WAR solely on offense (he had 3.4). And in terms of fantasy stats, Harper's 22 homers are second-most and his 18 stolen bases third-most by a teenager. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, something fantasy owners have known since the instant he was tabbed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and there should come a time -- sooner rather than later when he's tallying MVP-caliber statistics, meaning he's one of the most valuable commodities out there in dynasty leagues. Could the transformation happen this season? Perhaps. But Harper did bat .260 after the All-Star break, and both his 20.1 percent strikeout and 45.3 percent ground ball rates for the full year say that it might be a more gradual transformation. There's a danger that Harper buzz could spiral out of control, pushing him close to first-round status. His ceiling is in that class; more realistic expectations should have him just outside of the elite group ... for 2013 alone, that is.

14. Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		303	43	4	26	19	43	14	.271	.313	.370	.682
	2013 Projections		523	86	17	64	38	76	27	.294	.345	.465	.810
2013 Outlook: If there were a fantasy baseball dictionary, Ellsbury's headshot should be listed next to "risk/reward player." His career fits: He has per-162-game averages of 16 homers, 53 stolen bases, 107 runs scored, 73 RBIs and a .297 batting average, but in the past three seasons alone he has made four trips to the DL for a grand total of 222 games missed. In Ellsbury's defense, some of those injuries were fluky, such as the rib injury he suffered crashing into Adrian Beltre in the field, but he also warrants criticism for being slow to recover from his ailments. Thankfully, Ellsbury's legs have yet to become a problem, a plus considering so much of his fantasy value is gleaned from his speed. He is the kind of player who makes a valid case to be one of the 10 most valuable players in fantasy baseball if healthy, but is among the most likely to miss time of the early-round targets. How lucky do you feel?

15. Matt Holliday, StL OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		599	95	27	102	75	132	4	.295	.379	.497	.877
	2013 Projections		587	98	29	104	72	114	4	.300	.382	.520	.902
2013 Outlook: One of the most durable players in the game, Holliday has played at least 155 games five of the past seven seasons, including 157 last year. Be aware, however, that Holliday toughed his way through myriad nagging injuries, including late-season back stiffness. Bad backs can be tricky, so it is best to temper Holliday's playing-time expectation, especially since he's now 33, an age at which injuries tend to linger. Last season, Holliday fanned more and walked less than in 2011, although it is not clear whether this is declining skills, health related or just random fluctuation. Still, combined with the growing injury risk, Holliday is not quite the rock he has been for the past several seasons, and any upside from speed is nonexistent. The take-home message is Holliday is still worthy of an early pick, he just should no longer be given extra credit for reliability and durability.

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