Complete 2016 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2016 SEASON STATS
1. Mike Trout, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics57510441909215811.299.402.590.991
2016 Projections58311038969315814.300.401.580.981
2016 Outlook: Trout is still a lockdown top-3 pick heading into 2016, but he has both come back to the pack some and watched the pack catch up to him. The craziest thing about that sentence is that it, while true, comes after Trout posted a career-best .991 OPS and 41 home runs in 2015. Power jumped up league-wide last year, though, so the impact of those 41 homers wasn't as stark as it would've been just a year before, let alone in 2012 or 2013. Meanwhile, the tradeoff was another dip in stolen bases, down to a career-low 11. Worse yet was that he needed 18 attempts to get those, yielding a putrid 61 percent success rate. The tricky part is determining whether or not the stolen base slide will continue or spike back up at age 24. When the speed isn't in question, steals become an opportunity and effort category. Will the manager let him and/or does he want to? Luckily with Trout, it doesn't really matter because everyone would gladly take a 2015 carbon copy.
2. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics52111842991241316.330.460.6491.109
2016 Projections53310836921091366.310.429.5831.012
2016 Outlook: Harper needed 218 games between 2013-14 to amass 33 home runs, 112 runs, and 90 RBI. In 2015, he needed just 152 games to eclipse all three marks: 42 homers, 118 runs, and 99 RBI. What an indictment on the rest of his team that he had only 99 RBI, too! What does he do for an encore after leading baseball in both OBP and SLG? It's not crazy to suggest a repeat, but a more tempered approach says he will simply be in contention. The key to his fantasy season could be the arrival of Davey Lopes -- noted base-stealing guru -- as Washington's first base coach. Harper swiped 18 bags in his rookie season, but has just 19 in the three years since, with injuries no doubt playing a major role in 2013-14. If the Nationals commit to running more after ranking just 27th in total SB last year, Harper is likely to benefit. Even a return to double digits would be huge, but setting a new career high isn't out of the question if the 23-year-old superstar stays healthy and plays another 150-plus games.
3. Andrew McCutchen, Pit OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics5669123969813311.292.401.488.889
2016 Projections56691241009412317.300.406.514.920
2016 Outlook: Bad months happen to virtually every player every season and when it's happening to a superstar, owners just have to stay patient and not freak out. Of course, it's really easy to say that when said superstar is on someone else's fantasy team. It wasn't hard to imagine Cutch would emerge from his April slump (.636 OPS), but at the time, they were the only numbers he had on paper for the season. Nagging injuries (knee, back) were piling up and some were wondering aloud if maybe '15 was just going to be one of those lost injury seasons that hit even the best players from time-to-time. Now with the benefit of hindsight, we can all have a good laugh at that idea, but those injuries still had their affect in the form of a career-low 16 stolen base attempts. It didn't stop him from having a $30 season and even if 20-plus stolen base outputs are a thing of the past, McCutchen is still a first-rounder who could fall to the second round in some drafts.
4. Giancarlo Stanton, Mia OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics27947276734954.265.346.606.952
2016 Projections54710145111811788.269.365.576.941
2016 Outlook: Stanton only needed 74 games to pop 27 homers -- 25th-most in the league. While that kind of obscene power helps salvage his value in the face of missed time, it is becoming increasingly tougher to ignore the consistent chunk of games he loses to injuries. Stanton is almost reaching Troy Tulowitzki territory where he does enough in the games he does play and carries such elite upside that he has to be taken early on in drafts because "that game-changing season is coming." Or maybe 2014 already was that season and we're just chasing a dream? No, because has 50-homer potential written all over him. After the top four picks, virtually everyone's board is wide open and those lucky enough may just wind up with Stanton in the late-first or early-second round. But for those stuck with the sixth or seventh pick, there is an easy case for taking Stanton right then and there.
5. Jose Bautista, Tor OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics543108401141101068.250.377.536.913
2016 Projections547106381091021048.267.384.528.912
2016 Outlook: Bautista is about to enter the stage of his career where he's the fantasy baseball hot potato. Even as his skills remain steadily excellent, the community as a whole will undervalue him for fear of being caught holding the bag should he collapse. Once a player reaches his mid-30s, there is no guarantee that there will be a smooth decline, as injuries can have a much more severe effect. That said, Bautista has yet to show any signs of decline. He has played 155 and 153 games the last two seasons, going at least 35-100-100 in both while walking more than he struck out. Even with a modest .250 average, he is still a fantastic fantasy option. He is essentially already doing what is constantly projected from Giancarlo Stanton and yet is taken a full round or more later. The age is a factor so Stanton's appeal is very understandable, but at some point the actual performance has to matter, too.
6. A.J. Pollock, Ari OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics6091112076538939.315.367.498.865
2016 Projections604961675489233.296.346.454.800
2016 Outlook: There are folks questioning the rise of Pollock up the ranks because "he has only done it for one season," but that's technically not true. He was well on his way to a true breakout back in 2014 when he was hit by a pitch that fractured his hand. Extrapolating his 2014 for the same 673 plate appearances he logged last year yields 96 runs, 16 homers, 56 RBI, and 33 steals with a .302 average. While that is a tick worse across the board from 2015, if that is "all" he did in 2016, it would be just the seventh time all five of those thresholds were met or broken over the last five years. With speed down, these five-category assets are even more valuable than normal. In other words, even factoring in some room for regression doesn't take him out of the elite class.
7. Chris Davis, Bal 1B, OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics57310047117842082.262.361.562.923
2016 Projections5679544112782052.256.352.547.898
2016 Outlook: An Orioles hitter has led the majors in home runs in each of the past three seasons, and Davis has accounted for two of those crowns, so it was fantastic news when he re-upped with Baltimore on a seven-year deal this offseason. It is debatable how good that deal will look for the club in a few years, but for fantasy purposes, it works perfectly. Park factors suggest Camden Yards is the best hitter's park in the American League, which is one of the reasons Davis has averaged 40 homers a year over the last four seasons. Another reason is that he has exquisite raw power from the left side, which he sells out to get to during games, leading to a 31 percent K-rate both last season and for his career. It is understandable that his all-or-nothing approach won't lead to any batting titles, but he has managed to hit above .260 in three of the past four seasons, which is excellent for a slugger of his ilk.
8. Mookie Betts, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics597921877468221.291.341.479.820
2016 Projections613931779568425.290.349.467.816
2016 Outlook: It is not that often that the hype matches the production for young players, but Betts is already there in less than two full seasons in the big leagues. A few scouts said Betts was the best player in the 2013 Arizona Fall League and last season he showed why at the big league level. Betts struggled out of the gate and had an unimpressive slash line of .234/.293/.366 in mid-June but went on to hit .329/.372/.552 the rest of the way with 13 home runs, 11 steals, and 68 runs scored. Betts has a very disciplined strike zone for a young player and is a strong candidate for a 20/20/100 season in just his third season in the majors. Do the exact opposite of what Flava Flav and Chuck D told you in the late 80's and believe the hype. Betts is the new thing and you'll want to be a part of what he brings in 2016.
9. J.D. Martinez, Det OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics5969338102531783.282.344.535.879
2016 Projections602913598471745.282.337.518.856
2016 Outlook: Those who doubted the legitimacy of Martinez's 2014 breakout campaign sure got quiet in a hurry. While his slash line was down slightly across the board last year, he still brought the goods in the form of 38 homers and 102 RBI, which ranked 11th and 10th in MLB, respectively. His BABIP and HR/FB both check out. This seems to be what Martinez is. He's a bona fide middle-of-the-order slugger with easy 30-plus homer power. As crazy as it may have sounded two years ago, Martinez is one of the safest outfield options available this year. The Justin Upton signing could allow Martinez to plate even more runners in 2016, as he will be hitting fourth or fifth in what should be a potent top half of the order in Detroit. For owners who miss out on a top-shelf slugger in the first two rounds, Martinez could offer similar production with a third- or fourth-round price tag.
10. Starling Marte, Pit OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics5798419812712330.287.337.444.780
2016 Projections5858517793113531.279.336.438.774
2016 Outlook: With just three full seasons under his belt, Marte's skill set is remarkably stable. His slash line in each of the past three seasons has held steady and he's put up double-digit home run and stolen base totals in each of the past three years. He does not walk much, which limits his stolen base upside. He also hits too many groundballs, which limits his homer upside. Nevertheless, there is one area where he has shown year over year improvement: making contact. His strikeout rate has improved each of the past four seasons and he made a rather large improvement last season even if it didn't show up in his batting average or his on-base percentage. He's more likely to bat .300 than he is to hit 20 homers in 2016, but the speed is real and he's a five-category producer that will go off the boards early.
11. Charlie Blackmon, Col OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics6149317584611243.287.347.450.797
2016 Projections6198617634010535.288.341.443.783
2016 Outlook: Blackmon has now put up back-to-back productive seasons with the full-time role in Colorado and was so good in 2015 that he finished fourth overall in the Player Rater rankings for outfielders (just behind Mike Trout). Blackmon plays every day and compiles the counting stats across the board, but inflicts most of his damage in Coors where he has hit .334/.386/.501 in his career versus .241/.283/.370 away from the Mile High City. His splits against righties and lefties are not as dramatic, but he clearly favors righties when at the plate. If he's facing a righty at home, he's a must-play, but the offseason chatter about him possibly being traded by the Rockies would absolutely take a chunk out of his fantasy value. He's so good at home that his limitations on the road can be overlooked, but a trade away from Coors would severely impact his draft day value.
12. Carlos Gomez, Hou OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics4356112563110117.255.314.409.724
2016 Projections5538122863813933.262.323.458.781
2016 Outlook: After two incredibly consistent years in 2013 and 2014, Gomez's production slipped last season, primarily due to nagging injuries to his hamstring, hip, leg and back. Considering most of those injuries were of the lower-body variety, and that Gomez turned 30 this offseason, it is fair to assume that his days as a threat to steal 35-40 bases are behind him. However, he still managed 17 steals in 115 games despite all his injuries last year, so he should eclipse 20 steals if he has a healthier 2016. His hard contact dipped from 35.9 percent to 29.9 percent last year, which was a big reason for his underwhelming .255 average and his 9.7 percent HR/FB (lowest since 2010). It's hard to say how much of that decline was injury related, but there's definitely some bounce-back potential this year. Owners who liked him as a first-round pick last year should invest with confidence, because most of the skills remain and he should only cost a fifth-round pick in 2016.
13. George Springer, Hou OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics3885916415010916.276.367.459.826
2016 Projections5508727786716225.262.352.460.812
2016 Outlook: A fractured wrist cut into what would have been a very nice season for Springer as he put to rest any sophomore slump concerns in a hurry. Even with the shortened season, he contributed in all five categories and most importantly, made a lot more contact than people expected given his track record throughout his professional career. In just one season, Springer improved his strikeout rate by nine percentage points while still hitting for power. The increased contact and the already-strong walk rate helped him get on base 37 percent of the time and allowed him to steal bases at an 80 percent success rate. As long as Springer's health holds up in 2016, a 25-25 season with 100 runs is possible along with a shot at 100 runs driven in, depending on where he ends up in the lineup. If he can get some more loft in his swing, 30 homers is possible. Invest with confidence.
14. Nelson Cruz, Sea OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics590904493591643.302.369.566.936
2016 Projections599844088531624.270.333.514.848
2016 Outlook: Cruz doubled down on his improbable 40-homer season with Baltimore in 2014 by doing it again, and then some, in the hostile offensive environment known as Safeco Field in 2015. 2015 was the sixth consecutive season in which Cruz has posted an Isolated Power (SLG-AVG) of at least .200, and lots of hard contact led to a .350 batting average on balls in play. That high BABIP allowed him to hit over .300 for the first time in five seasons despite a 25-percent strikeout rate. Cruz was able to double-up on the 40-homer season thanks to a 30 percent HR/FB, which is well above the 18-percent rate he had posted through his career heading into 2016. If that rate regresses to his career-level, Cruz will have a tough time getting to 30 homers, but the RBI opportunities should be plentiful with the projected lineup in front of him.
15. Yoenis Cespedes, NYM OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics63310135105331417.291.328.542.870
2016 Projections602923192361427.271.314.500.814
2016 Outlook: Cespedes' offseason was a rollercoaster. But like any rollercoaster, it would up where it started, and Cespedes is once again a Met, this time for a full season. Lost in the fawning over his late-summer, early-fall with the Mets is the fact that he was having a really good season with Detroit prior to the trade. Of course, he almost doubled his production in about 60 percent of the plate appearances, but it should be noted that he had a great season start-to-finish; it wasn't a weak or modest start saved by the New York run. Now, can he repeat? No, of course not. His Mets numbers were about a 45/120 pace. He can definitely log a second straight 100-run/100-RBI season, though. The Mets' lineup is strong top-to-bottom with a league average or better contributor in every spot, plus some interesting platoon potential to leverage the bench. They should be able to avoid the pitfalls that beset last year's team and created the need for the Cespedes trade in the first place.