ESPN » Free Fantasy Baseball

Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
«PREVIOUS | NEXT»
PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
31. Josh Willingham, Min OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5198535110761413.260.366.524.890
2013 Projections5128032105701334.264.362.512.874
2013 Outlook: Willingham's swing and Target Field seem made for one another; his 22 home runs there are already second-most in the venue's brief history. That's the fallacy of Target Field's "pitching-friendly" reputation: It actually plays well for right-handed power, especially to left-center field, which is Willingham's forte. Injuries are actually his weakness; he has never appeared in more than 145 games, his personal high set last season, and he has made five trips to the DL in his career. If he can stay on the field as frequently this year, he'll remain one of the more underappreciated sources of home runs and walks, and his status as a middle-of-the-order Twins hitter could drive him into 100-RBI range once again. Willingham is a useful midround value with greater appeal in leagues that count on-base percentage.
32. Angel Pagan, SF OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics60595856489729.288.338.440.778
2013 Projections55280757478330.275.331.406.737
2013 Outlook: Although most of his value is derived from steals, Pagan is more than a one-trick pony. A good contact rate in concert with a lot of line drives yields a solid average. Pagan even runs into a long ball now and again. He's a switch-hitter slated to play center field, which means he'll play nearly every day, so scoring runs shouldn't be a problem. If you like picking up steals on the cheap without sacrificing the other categories, put Pagan on your wish list.
33. Shane Victorino, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics595721155538039.255.321.383.704
2013 Projections568821161537228.266.334.408.742
2013 Outlook: Last season Victorino set career lows in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox are hoping this was just a down year, as they signed the "Flyin' Hawaiian" to patrol right field for the next three seasons. On the plus side, Victorino's contact rate is still stellar and the Green Monster could be just what a falling BABIP needs. In addition, Victorino did set a career high with 39 steals, so he still has good speed. With him hitting near the top of a revamped Boston order, the parts are in place for Victorino to have a bounce-back campaign across the board, with the exception of homers, as Fenway depresses power. If your preference is to get steals spread among several players, Victorino is an intriguing target, since his price is likely to be depressed coming off such a disappointing campaign.
34. Hunter Pence, SF OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6178724104561455.253.319.425.743
2013 Projections594842396531258.276.336.455.791
2013 Outlook: Pence is an accumulator; he has good but not great skills, and accrues a bounty of counting stats because he is very durable and rarely misses a game. More of the same can be expected this season, although a full year in AT&T Park could chop a couple of homers off Pence's total. Of small concern is that Pence's contact rate last season was a career low, although he deserves the benefit of the doubt that it was just variance and not a loss of skill. This type of player is often shunned in lieu of sexier names with greater upside. Thus, Pence is potentially an underpriced but stabilizing fantasy contributor.
35. Alejandro De Aza, CWS OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics524819504710926.281.349.410.760
2013 Projections5467910534710926.282.346.416.761
2013 Outlook: If you prefer to avoid the one-trick ponies who only provide steals, keep an eye on De Aza. If he is the regular center fielder again, De Aza has the potential to match last season's total of 26 bags while also hitting low-double-digit homers. He showed last season that he is capable of holding the full-time gig and could be a sneaky play to fill in the back of your outfield.
36. Brett Gardner, NYY OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics31703572.323.417.387.804
2013 Projections47079430669041.255.353.345.698
2013 Outlook: One of the game's more underrated speedsters who knows how to take a walk, Gardner has a .355 lifetime on-base percentage while averaging 47 stolen bases per 162 games played. However, elbow problems dogged him for all but 16 games of 2012; he suffered setback after setback and succumbed to surgery in July to remove inflamed tissue and a bone spur. Gardner did return to a part-time role for the season's final regular-season week plus playoffs, but he didn't look nearly 100 percent, meaning his spring training merits watching. That it was an elbow rather than leg problem is a good thing for a base-stealer, though. Gardner could, as a result of the missed time, be a value in terms of steals and runs scored. Be aware, however, that the Yankees sometimes don't utilize him properly, often batting him low in the lineup and depressing his runs total, and platooning him against tougher lefties.
37. Carlos Beltran, StL OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5478332976512413.269.346.495.842
2013 Projections50575258562938.285.363.505.868
2013 Outlook: A first half reminiscent of his salad days led to Beltran cracking the 30-homer plateau for the first time since 2007, with 20 of his 32 bombs coming before the All-Star break. After the break, his average also suffered, as he hit .296 before and only .236 after. Combine Beltran's second-half swoon with the likelihood he won't make it through consecutive seasons without an injury, and he's a risky play. If someone in your league wants to pay for Beltran's surprising 2012, don't stop them. However, if he slides enough to buffer a drop in production and playing time, he still has enough pop to make a difference.
38. Nelson Cruz, Tex OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics585862490481408.260.319.460.779
2013 Projections5187425884111610.272.327.492.819
2013 Outlook: For years, we've wondered what Cruz's numbers would look like if he stayed healthy, and unfortunately, he picked a down year to show us. Then again, could there have been a reason? Although Cruz denies using performance-enhancing drugs, the threat of a 50-game suspension looms. On the field, Cruz saw his HR/FB rate nosedive to barely above league average after he was among the league leaders a few years ago. A bounce-back is likely, although the extent of which is now a question. Despite a healthy 2012, Cruz is still a health risk and he now needs to be considered a performance risk. Tack on the chance of sitting almost one-third of the season, and perhaps it is best if Cruz is someone else's problem unless the discount is huge.
39. Ben Revere, Phi OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics51170032295440.294.333.342.675
2013 Projections57168034325741.273.315.312.626
2013 Outlook: Acquired by the Phillies to fill their center-field void in December, Revere might not necessarily be in any better a situation to succeed in 2013 than he'd have been in Minnesota. Due to a major league-high 67.4 percent ground ball rate last season, forcing him to utilize his speed to drive his batting average, and a so-so walk rate of 5.2 percent, he might bat in the Phillies' bottom rather than top third of the order. Revere could wind up hitting eighth ahead of the pitcher; he could get a red light on the base paths more often, bad for a player who derives so much of his fantasy value from his stolen bases. He's, in a way, a duplicate in terms of offensive skills of 2011 Phillie Juan Pierre, a player who should be good-not-great in batting average, should score a decent number of runs but be most useful for his 40-steal potential. Revere might be younger and more complete than Pierre, which is a plus, but role is critical for him. Check where he's slotted in spring lineups before taking him as your leading speedster.
40. Carl Crawford, LAD OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics117233193225.282.306.479.785
2013 Projections484741262289124.271.312.436.748
2013 Outlook: A fresh start in Los Angeles will probably be good for Crawford, a total bust during the first two seasons of his seven-year, $142 million contract with the Red Sox. Though seemingly a salary dump at last July's trade deadline, Crawford was actually a target for the Dodgers, who were seeking a 2013 leadoff man and left fielder. He's fresh off Tommy John surgery, his elbow problems one explanation for his poor 2011-12, but is expected to be ready in time for Opening Day. But how much might surgery, and advancing age (he's now 31), have taken away? Crawford's walk and stolen-base rates were in decline at the time he got hurt and he was getting into bad habits like pulling the ball too much, so it's foolish to assume he'll recapture his form of 2004-10, when he was one of the most valuable players in fantasy. Today's model might be more .280 than .300 hitter with barely double-digit power and 30-steal speed, and an injury-prone reputation might be here to stay. Crawford is a bounce-back candidate, but don't get overzealous.
41. Torii Hunter, Det OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics534811692381339.313.365.451.817
2013 Projections560822292521228.286.352.452.804
2013 Outlook: Hunter's .313 batting average last season was a mirage, buoyed by an extremely lucky BABIP that is sure to regress in 2013. In fact, Hunter's good fortune masked a decline in both contact and walk rate. He's now 37 years old, and it is likely his decline will continue. In addition, Hunter's already high ground ball rate is increasing, limiting his power. At least Hunter reversed one trend, as he was successful on nine of 10 steal chances, after sporting an unsightly 42 percent success rate the previous two seasons. Hunter can still be a fantasy asset; just be wary, as he's in the twilight of his career with more risk than reward.
42. Andre Ethier, LAD OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics556792089501242.284.351.460.812
2013 Projections524752285561102.292.364.483.847
2013 Outlook: In 2011, a double dip in both HR/FB and fly ball rate harpooned Ethier's power. Last year, his HR/FB bounced back to normal, but he continued to burn worms at an elevated rate, capping his power potential. Ethier also is notoriously weak against southpaws, as evidenced by his 2012 OPS of .606 versus lefties as opposed to .945 against righties. In fact, at the end of last season, Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly intimated Ethier might see more pine time against left-handers this season. Although this is still conjecture, it is plausible enough to drop Ethier down a peg or two in your ranks.
43. Jason Kubel, Ari OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics506753090571511.253.327.506.833
2013 Projections537732796581401.263.334.480.814
2013 Outlook: As expected, Kubel's power increased significantly in the desert, though his overall production was dampened as he fanned at a career-high pace. In fact, his strikeout rate has increased for three straight seasons. That, combined with the threat of injury, renders Kubel a player you don't want to chase as the last power bat available. If he slides, he can help fortify your homers, but don't count on another 30 home runs this season.
44. Michael Morse, Sea OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics40653186216970.291.321.470.791
2013 Projections483652579291141.292.340.505.845
2013 Outlook: Morse is one of those rare players who strikes out a lot, walks a little, yet somehow manages to turn in annual .300 batting averages. He has done it by maintaining BABIPs in the .340 range in back-to-back seasons, and his critics do -- and should -- wonder whether his luck will run out, forcing his batting average closer to the .270 range. That's a troubling thought this year; Morse is coming off an injury-plagued 2012 and his new home is Safeco Field, which despite smaller dimensions this season remains likely to be pitcher-friendly. While he's capable of another .300-30 campaign, health-willing, the prospects of merely .270-25 loom, and be aware how commonplace such performers are: Seven reached both of the former last year, while 28 achieved the latter. Morse is also somewhat less attractive in points-based leagues than rotisserie because of his K-to-walk ratio, so while he warrants midround consideration, be careful not to overpay.
45. Chris Davis, Bal 1B, OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics515753385371692.270.326.501.827
2013 Projections546753183381703.266.318.487.805
2013 Outlook: After spending parts of four seasons trying to patch up some of the many holes in his swing, Davis finally made the necessary adjustments in year number five. Most notably, he made massive strides against breaking pitches, hitting 14 home runs off curveballs and sliders combined in 2012 after not hitting a single curve or slider out the previous two seasons combined. Davis was still every bit as strikeout-prone and walk-averse as ever, though, so he'll always be less valuable in points-based leagues that penalize for K's and he'll never be mistaken for a batting champion. This is out-and-out chasing power, and it's doing so only at either the first base or outfield positions, now that he has lost the potentially more attractive third base eligibility. Davis has his flaws -- he had a wide home/road split last year and can be streaky due to his penchant for strikeouts -- but he's a valuable power source if you can bolster your rotisserie team batting average elsewhere.
«PREVIOUS | NEXT»
Expand Help Topics+