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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Robinson Cano, NYY 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics627105339461963.313.379.550.929
2013 Projections6271063310954916.313.373.555.928
2013 Outlook: Now 30 years old and in the prime of his career, Cano is riding a streak of four consecutive seasons with at least a .300 batting average and 25 home runs. To put that into historical perspective, only one second baseman in history has had more such seasons in his entire career: Rogers Hornsby, who had five. Cano is the best run-producing second baseman in fantasy baseball, he has Yankee Stadium's short porch helping his cause -- he has hit 21 more home runs there (68) than on the road (47) since it opened -- and he's playing for a new contract this summer. If he has any warts, they're either his career-worst performance against lefties in 2012 (.239/.309/.337), his rising swing-and-miss rate (20 percent, up 2 percent from 2011) or the fact that his Yankees lack some of the firepower that their teams of the past decade had, impacting his runs/RBIs potential. But we admit that we're nitpicking; Cano's chances at another top-10-in-the-game season remain outstanding.
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Col SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics1813382719192.287.360.486.846
2013 Projections544923010258799.301.371.540.911
2013 Outlook: Fantasy owners will be tempted to apply the "injury-prone" label to Tulowitzki. After all, he has averaged only 120 games played in his six full seasons, made four trips to the DL during that span and missed the Rockies' final 113 games of 2012 due to a groin injury that required surgery to remove scar tissue. Tulowitzki is expected to be fully recovered in time for the spring, but he'll be among those players most closely watched in March, as there's no denying he's one of the most valuable at his position when healthy. To that end, from 2010-12, he managed .305/.374/.545 rates while averaging 34 home runs, 118 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and 106 runs scored per 162 games. And from a career perspective, Alex Rodriguez is the only shortstop with more seasons (6) of at least a .290 batting average, 25 home runs and a .900 OPS other than Tulowitzki (3, 2009-11). It's a risky move to draft him in the first three rounds, but one that could have a substantial reward.
3. Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics563811565486020.290.347.449.797
2013 Projections600921770677020.293.364.453.818
2013 Outlook: It was not the best year for Pedroia or his right hand. In early May, the diminutive second baseman sprained his right thumb, but he toughed it out at the expense of production, as evidenced by his uncharacteristically poor pre-All-Star-break line of .266 with only six homers and six steals. Then in late July, Pedroia tore a ligament in his right pinkie, which necessitated offseason surgery. The pinkie did not bother Pedroia nearly as much, as he returned to form, going .318 with nine homers and an impressive 20 steals after the break. Pedroia could be moved down in the order, leading to more RBI opportunities. Regardless, the former rookie of the year and MVP should again be among the most valuable second basemen.
4. Ian Kinsler, Tex 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6551051972609021.256.326.423.749
2013 Projections6151032368727921.265.349.450.799
2013 Outlook: My, how quickly a player sheds the injury-prone label. After making two trips to the DL in 2010 alone while averaging 124 games played per year from 2006-10, Kinsler amassed the most plate appearances in baseball the past two seasons combined, sitting out only 12 games total in 2011-12. This afforded him the opportunity to total 51 home runs and 51 stolen bases in those two years, making him the only second baseman and one of only three players overall to amass at least 50 of each. With health no longer a valid criticism, Kinsler's only weakness is batting average, odd considering he had a remarkably low strikeout rate (11.4 percent) and swing-and-miss rate (11.8 percent) in those two seasons. No matter -- it's that contact ability that makes him one of the most attractive selections in points-based leagues. Kinsler also makes a compelling case to be picked in the first three rounds in rotisserie, too, considering his skills relative to his second-base brethren.
5. Jose Reyes*, Tor SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics642861157635640.287.347.433.780
2013 Projections578881047515034.291.345.441.787
2013 Outlook: Part of the Miami Marlins' 2012 one-year-and-done spending spree, Reyes was traded to the Blue Jays in November in one of the largest salary dumps in baseball history. Frankly, from a fantasy perspective, the Marlins did Reyes a favor. In Toronto, he'll bat atop the most potent lineup he has been a part of in at least five years, and keep in mind that in 2008 he scored 113 runs to finish fifth in the majors in the category. Reyes was a top-10-caliber fantasy player back then, and that's his upside in 2013, the primary reason why he's not ranked as such with the injuries he has since battled. He made two separate trips to the DL for hamstring issues in 2011 and has missed occasional contests with hamstring and oblique injuries in the past three years. Plus, as a soon-to-be 30-year-old (June 11), he might not quite be as physically equipped to man the Rogers Centre's artificial turf on an every-night basis. Don't let Reyes slip deep into your draft, especially considering the dearth of quality shortstops, but beware of inflating your expectations of him in his new city.
6. Starlin Castro, ChC SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6467814783610025.283.323.430.753
2013 Projections6588713733610024.296.334.435.769
2013 Outlook: Castro has absorbed his share of criticism for an alleged lack of focus during his three seasons in the bigs, but in his defense, he batted .306/.367/.464 -- all of those higher than his career rates to date -- in the final third of 2012 following his inking a seven-year, $60 million extension with the Cubs. So is it fair to sling barbs his way? The kid begins 2013 at only age 23, and his accomplishments to date rank within range of the greatest shortstops in the game's history; his 529 career hits are fourth-most by any shortstop through his age-22 campaign. Castro has already proven to fantasy owners his durability -- he played all but 11 innings at shortstop last year -- speed and ability to hit for a high average, and scouts felt earlier in his pro career that he had the potential to develop more power. Castro might take only baby steps by year, considering a player's prime is usually in the ages 25 to 30 range, but stepping up his 2012 production would result in a top-25 player.
7. Brandon Phillips, Cin 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics580861877287915.281.321.429.750
2013 Projections610931876388115.285.333.436.769
2013 Outlook: After years of teasing fantasy owners with upside potential, Phillips has settled in as one of the more reliable performers in the game. His skills are solid and he's durable, averaging 654 plate appearances a year since 2007. A fantasy roster should feature both risk and stability. Phillips is the perfect complement to offset some speculative picks elsewhere.
8. Ben Zobrist, TB OF, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5608820749710314.270.377.471.848
2013 Projections5659119829110817.269.369.462.831
2013 Outlook: After a three-year stretch of solid but inconsistent production, Zobrist has turned in consecutive seasons of nearly identical numbers. This should be considered his new baseline with a bit of power upside if he can loft a few more balls. His qualifying at three positions, including second base and shortstop, adds to Zobrist's value. That said, this also might induce some to reach for the veteran switch-hitter. So if you want him, be ready to pay the price. Of note is that Zobrist's excellent walk rate leads to sneaky value in on-base percentage and points leagues.
9. Jason Kipnis, Cle 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5918614766710931.257.335.379.714
2013 Projections6069015706412025.257.332.393.725
2013 Outlook: Kipnis' career breaks down into three half-seasons of wildly varying performance. During his 36-game stint in the second half of 2011, he hit seven home runs with a .507 slugging percentage, driven by an unrealistic 19.4 home run/fly ball percentage. During the first half of 2012, he ran wild, stealing 20 bases on 21 tries. And in the final half of 2012, he completely collapsed, batting .233/.322/.328. The sum is a player who was clearly adapting to life in the bigs, and his 2013 drafting owners will be taking a leap of faith that this soon-to-be-26-year-old is ready to take the next step. Scouts always felt he was capable of 20-homer potential, and while he's probably more of a 20-steal than 30-steal candidate, a potential 20/20 player carries a lot of value at the second-base position. Kipnis belongs in the top-eight discussion at second base regardless of format, considering he's a good bet for at least 15/15 numbers right now, and his 10.0 percent walk rate last season makes him even more attractive in leagues that use on-base percentage.
10. Ian Desmond, Wsh SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5137225733011321.292.335.511.845
2013 Projections5517020733312323.270.315.445.759
2013 Outlook: Three shortstops managed a 20-homer/20-steal season in 2012, but only one of them batted greater than .260: Ian Desmond. You heard that right: It was Desmond, not Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins or Jeter, who accomplished the feat, pacing the position with 25 home runs, or three more than he had hit the previous three seasons combined. Desmond did it by improving in two key areas: First, he was more aggressive, for instance swinging 10 percent more often in hitters' counts; and second, he excelled in terms of inner-half plate coverage, including a .333 average and six homers on fastballs inside. That new approach helped him drive the ball with more authority, while he maintained the 20-steal speed he exhibited previously. In short, Desmond's adjustments solidified his 2012 as legit, the only threat of change in his 2013 profile being a possible correction to his 17.5 home run/fly ball percentage. Keep in mind, though, that he was limited to just 130 games last year, and better health might offset any dip in power. Now a prime-aged 27, Desmond belongs in the discussion with the best at his position.
11. Aaron Hill*, Ari 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics609932685528614.302.360.522.882
2013 Projections559802075457814.275.334.460.794
2013 Outlook: Despite consistent contact and plate discipline skills, Hill's numbers have been all over the place. Since 2009, his homers have ranged from eight to 36, steals from two to 21 and average from .205 to .317, with all four years being represented. In situations such as this, history has taught us that splitting the difference is the prudent play, although treating 2010's low average and 2011's lower power as outliers can be justified. The bottom line is Hill's excellent contact rate makes him a safe play, but like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get.
12. Jimmy Rollins, Phi SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6321022368629630.250.316.427.743
2013 Projections563881761556826.261.326.414.740
2013 Outlook: Rollins' batting average keeps him from being an elite fantasy option, but his production, especially as a shortstop, is still stellar. However, there are two noteworthy aspects of Rollins' 2012 campaign. The first is he played a full season for the first time since 2009. It's best to be conservative and temper expectations in terms of playing time, which will take away some counting stats. Next, his contact rate rose significantly, although it was still well below league average. This is of some concern, since Rollins' average is already dampened by a BABIP baseline historically lower than league average. Rollins is still one of the better fantasy options at shortstop, but if someone wants to pay for last season's health and production, let them.
13. Jose Altuve, Hou 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics57680737407433.290.340.399.740
2013 Projections58777639347830.279.321.376.698
2013 Outlook: Do you know that old saying, "You can't tell the players without a scorecard?" That's true about the 2013 Houston Astros ... with the possible exception of Altuve, their lone 2012 All-Star representative. But don't discount the kid simply because of that silly rule about every team requiring a rep, or because his supporting cast is a bunch of no-names; Altuve earned his spot with good play. Previously a swing-at-everything, high-contact speedster, Altuve actually showed a hint of patience in his sophomore campaign. He walked 8 percent of the time after the All-Star break, and he chased 13 percent fewer pitches outside the strike zone for the full year. Those improvements help bolster Altuve's potential in the batting average and on-base percentage categories, important because getting on base will drive his stolen-base total, his most valuable asset. Even on a bad team, he might be a shining star at a weak fantasy position.
14. Martin Prado, Ari OF, 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics617811070586917.301.359.438.796
2013 Projections627881475517012.297.348.437.785
2013 Outlook: If you're looking for reliability and durability to stabilize your lineup, Prado is your man. Other than a 2011 dip in average, which was the result of an uncharacteristically low BABIP, Prado has been a bastion of consistency. His high contact rate yields a high average, and he has double-digit pop. He even added some steals to his repertoire last season. Granted, Prado likely will not pick up second base or shortstop eligibility this season, but the move to the desert could mean a few more homers. There are sexier players with more upside, but there is something to be said for the peace of mind Prado brings to your squad, regardless of his position.
15. Elvis Andrus, Tex SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics62985362579621.286.349.378.727
2013 Projections62590357619432.274.342.350.692
2013 Outlook: It was a tale of two halves for Andrus, as he hit .293 with 16 steals in the first half, dropping to .279 with only five swipes in the second half. Perhaps the drop in steals was intertwined with the general malaise surrounding the Rangers, or maybe it was his declining success rate limiting opportunities. After swiping an impressive 33 of 39 attempts for an 85 percent success rate his rookie season, Andrus' percentage has been only 70 percent since. Because he has no power, Andrus needs to run to be useful and to run a lot to justify a lofty draft status. Running a lot is no longer a sure thing, which explains his lower ranking than the past couple of seasons.
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