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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
46. Jeff Keppinger, CWS 3B, 1B, 2B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics3854694024311.325.367.439.806
2013 Projections53261105333361.299.340.406.746
2013 Outlook: Keppinger rarely strikes out, so his average is usually useful. The problem is the associated production is low, since he doesn't have much power or speed. But since he is slated to hit second as the regular at the hot corner for the White Sox, volume could push his counting stats to a fantasy-relevant level. Still, in fantasy, Keppinger is best suited as an injury replacement. If he's a regular for you, you may want to think about an upgrade.
47. Stephen Drew, Bos SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics2873872837761.223.309.348.657
2013 Projections473681257551086.258.335.412.747
2013 Outlook: Drew was searching for a team to let him audition for a season and the Red Sox happily obliged. He is looking to get his career back on track after missing significant time each of the past two seasons. Once thought of a guy with moderate power and sneaky speed, Drew needs to improve on his contact rate if he wants a shot at rebounding. Many feel the move to Boston will rejuvenate Drew's career and it is worth a late dart-throw to find out. Just be ready to bail if your toss misses the board.
48. Billy Hamilton, Cin SS, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics----------------------
2013 Projections14119110133823.241.303.319.622
2013 Outlook: Hamilton is arguably the speediest player in all of professional baseball. He's coming off a 2012 season during which he set an all-time, single-season pro record with 165 stolen bases, and in 379 career minor league games he has 320 steals. That's the kind of speed that could push Hamilton into the top 25 players overall in fantasy during his prime; for 2013 he's likely to spend the year in Triple-A adapting to his new position of center field. He might see time with the Reds later in the year, making him an instant pickup even if he's a one-category performer initially.
49. Dee Gordon, LAD SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics30338117206232.228.280.281.561
2013 Projections28035015145123.243.282.293.575
2013 Outlook: Gordon, predictably, fell back to earth in 2012 after a brief, brilliant late-season run the year before. His blazing speed continued to be an asset in fantasy leagues even in a down year -- his 32 stolen bases were 13th-most in the majors despite his appearing in only 87 games -- but his free-swinging ways, coupled with his complete lack of power, led to awful numbers in terms of batting average (.228) and on-base percentage (.280). With Hanley Ramirez recovering from thumb surgery, Gordon might again get a full-time place to play in his absence, at least at the season's onset. Gordon might be a slightly better player than the one we saw last season - his batting average on balls in play was just .281 -- but to be clear, he's a one-category rotisserie option without a promise of at-bats. Grant this kid 120 games and he might swipe 50 bags, but it'll be difficult for him to maintain that large a role considering his weak bat.
50. Yunel Escobar, TB SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5585895135705.253.300.344.644
2013 Projections54869115450687.268.333.376.709
2013 Outlook: Escobar won't win your league for you, but he won't lose it for you, either. He makes excellent contact, then it's up to fate on batted balls. To wit, Escobar's contact rate and distribution of line drives, grounders and fly balls was virtually identical the past two seasons; however, in 2011, he hit a lofty .290 as opposed to a disappointing .253 in 2012. Escobar is moving from the Rogers Centre, a favorable venue, to Tropicana Field, which depresses offense, so a slight drop in his already marginal power is likely.
51. Darwin Barney, ChC 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5487374433586.254.299.354.653
2013 Projections5537364729658.268.309.360.669
2013 Outlook: After hitting just a pair of homers in his initial 608 major league at-bats, Barney muscled up for seven last season, leaving him just 230 short of Ryne Sandberg's franchise record for second basemen. Sandberg can rest easy as Barney will be lucky to hit seven more over the next two seasons. He does provide a handful of steals and some runs, but not enough for mixed-league relevance. Barney's a fallback option if you need a middle infielder late in NL-only formats.
52. Eduardo Nunez*, NYY SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics891411161211.292.330.393.723
2013 Projections32138431184623.259.297.346.643
2013 Outlook: Billed "Derek Jeter's eventual successor" a few years back, Nunez has shown in brief snippets with the Yankees that he lacks the glove to man Jeter's traditional shortstop position. (And considering Jeter's own limited defensive skills, that's saying a lot.) Nunez appears ticketed for a utility role with the 2013 Yankees, but that's an important role, being that every one of their projected infield starters is beyond his 30th birthday, not to mention that the team lacks anyone who can be firmly considered an every-day designated hitter. He'll get his at-bats, and he makes consistent enough contact to hit for a solid average, fueling a healthy enough stolen-base total to be meaningful in AL-only leagues.
53. Brian Roberts*, Bal 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics662055121.182.233.182.415
2013 Projections33634533305410.238.298.339.638
2013 Outlook: Few players possess as extensive an injury track record as Roberts': He has made four trips to the DL in the past three seasons combined, playing only 115 games during that span. Still, reports on his recovery from hip surgery have been positive this spring, and in those 115 contests he has batted .244 with seven homers and 19 stolen bases, which at least put him on the AL-only map. Roberts bears watching, as a miraculously healthy year could push him into 30-steal territory, but before you write that number in ink, remember: Hope springs eternal.
54. Cliff Pennington, Ari SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics41850628359015.215.278.311.589
2013 Projections47356741429818.241.304.345.648
2013 Outlook: The Diamondbacks acquired Pennington as part of the deal sending Chris Young to Oakland, ostensibly to be the everyday shortstop. Then Arizona acquired Didi Gregorius, announcing he would be given the chance to win the job, perhaps as rationalization for parting with former prized prospect Trevor Bauer in the swap. Now factor in Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald, and Pennington's playing time is in doubt. If it appears Gregorius will win the job, don't summarily ignore Pennington as his cost will be next to nothing and there is a good chance Gregorius scuffles and is sent down or Pennington could be dealt to a team where he gets decent playing time and provides some cheap steals.
55. Johnny Giavotella, KC 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics181211158353.238.270.304.574
2013 Projections4465454629677.262.310.354.664
2013 Outlook: Granted multiple opportunities to nail down the Royals' starting second-base role the past two seasons, Giavotella finds himself fighting for at-bats at the position this spring. Although he finished 2012 as the starter, he managed mediocre .250/.276/.330 rates and only three stolen bases in 32 games in that most recent audition. Outside of a respectable first two weeks as a big leaguer, Giavotella hasn't looked anything like the .308 career hitter he was in the minors, and we'll point out that his big league career walk rate (3.7 percent) is less than half his number in the minors (10 percent). Ultimately, even his best-case scenario has a relatively low ceiling in the key rotisserie stats, making him AL-only roster filler.
56. Maicer Izturis, Tor 3B, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics28935220253817.256.320.315.634
2013 Projections40347433335315.261.323.347.670
2013 Outlook: There are a handful of players who, despite playing a lot and getting a decent number of at-bats, you just don't know when, where or how many at-bats are coming their way. Izturis heads that list. Players of this ilk are gold in deep leagues since you can move them around different positions, but they are better suited as reserves in mixed formats. If he lands a regular gig, and second base is open (with Emilio Bonifacio as his main competition), Izturis could even help mixed teams as a late pickup.
57. Mark Ellis, LAD 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics4156273140705.258.333.364.697
2013 Projections4656373935679.262.322.361.683
2013 Outlook: Just your run-of-the-mill, near-the-league-average second baseman here -- his .265/.331/.394 lifetime rates are only marginally better than the .256/.317/.382 major league averages by second basemen in 2012 -- Ellis is the kind of player whose role will drive his NL-only value. He's adept enough with the bat, and capable enough of drawing a walk, to stick in the Dodgers' regular lineup, and he could fit as a No. 1 or 2 hitter -- he started 99 times combined between those spots last year -- which might result in a decent runs total. Now 35, Ellis probably isn't much better than the player he was in 2012, and his days of double-digit steals are presumably behind him. But he does have a strength: He hits lefties well, with a .800-plus OPS against that side in two of the past three years. That at least gives him value in daily formats.
58. Jemile Weeks, Oak 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics44454220507016.221.305.304.609
2013 Projections46156231447319.249.319.341.660
2013 Outlook: Weeks' sophomore campaign in 2012 ranked among the game's most disappointing. In a year's time, he went from a line-drive-hitting, legging-out-grounders dynamo to a light-hitting, weak-grounder-generating bust. His .158 well-hit average rated him among the 10 worst players in the game at making hard contact. Nevertheless, Weeks will be in the second-base race during spring training, and it's difficult to imagine that a speedy, contact-hitting 26-year-old has entirely lost it in the majors this quickly. He's worth targeting for cheap speed in AL-only leagues, especially since the Athletics don't have any clearly better alternatives at his position, but there are no promises.
59. Chris Nelson, LAA 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics3454595327842.301.352.458.810
2013 Projections3824995223834.272.315.419.733
2013 Outlook: Largely as a result of his superior defense, Nelson is the favorite to win the job at the hot corner for the Rockies. But Colorado needs production from a corner infield spot, so Nelson is going to have to hit to keep the job. The problem is his contact rate is trending in the wrong direction and Nelson has only marginal power and speed. Since he does have second and third base eligibility in most leagues he could be worth a reserve pick in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
60. Hiroyuki Nakajima*, Oak SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics----------------------
2013 Projections424531059367510.264.329.387.716
2013 Outlook: A year after failing to agree on a contract with the Yankees, who won his negotiating rights a winter ago, Nakajima made the jump from Japan's pro league to join the Athletics this offseason. That actually works out well for fantasy owners, given that Nakajima is in position to have a bigger role with the A's, who need starters at second and third base. At 30, Nakajima is ready to step in on Day One and might be able to handle playing every day at second base, depending on where Oakland sees him fitting best after acquiring Jed Lowrie. One of the top hitters in Japan, Nakajima has shown a power-speed combo that suggests he could reach low double digits in homers and steals as a regular. But be wary: The track record for Japanese middle infielders coming to the U.S. (think: Kazuo Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Tsuyoshi Nishioka) is sketchy at best. Consider him an AL-only play.
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