Complete 2014 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | DH | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2014 SEASON STATS
1. Mike Trout, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics589109279711013633.323.432.557.988
2014 Projections59511827879514339.303.402.531.933
2014 Outlook: Sit back and enjoy the show. Through parts of three major-league seasons, Trout has 20.8 career Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the most of any player in history through his age-21 season, and in 2013 he became the first player to manage at least a .300 batting average, 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases before his 21st birthday. We are witnessing history -- five-category fantasy stud history -- in the making. What's more, Trout's gains in 2013 eclipse his losses: He cut his strikeout rate by nearly three percent, integral to his keeping his batting average in the .320s, and he walked nearly five percent more often; that should ease the minds of those troubled by his 16-steal decline. Trout is the game's best 30/30 candidate, and a batting-title contender to boot. Feel free to engage the philosophical debate as to whether that, or the .340-39-127 stat line that Miguel Cabrera has averaged the past three seasons, warrants the No. 1 overall pick. You really can't go wrong with either one.
2. Carlos Gonzalez*, Col OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics3917226704111821.302.367.591.958
2014 Projections5408833885814224.300.369.565.933
2014 Outlook: A multi-category fantasy stud, one of only two players in baseball with at least a .300 batting average, 100 home runs and 50 stolen bases the past four seasons combined (Ryan Braun is the other), Gonzalez enters 2014 with a hint more risk than usual. Though his final stat line was excellent, he missed 49 of the Colorado Rockies' final 73 games due to a sprained right middle finger, batting .291 with only three extra-base hits in his healthy contests. Gonzalez opted against surgery to repair the digit, has no plans to alter his swing to compensate for the injury, and will shift to center field full-time; all of these could put him at greater risk of recurrence. Still, he made significant strides in reducing his home/road split -- he batted .332 with 14 home runs away from Coors last season -- and he's a prime-age 28. If you can appreciate Gonzalez both for his production and his 129-game average from 2010-13, you'll value him correctly: A best-in-fantasy candidate on a per-game basis, but one with a reasonable chance of a month-long DL stint.
Stephania Bell: While Gonzalez opted against offseason surgery on his sprained right middle finger, a surprise appendectomy in January may have interrupted his conditioning, but he's been cleared for full activity this spring.
Addendum (3/12): Gonzalez has been hitting well this spring, showing no signs thus far of any lingering issues with the finger.
3. Ryan Braun, Mil OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics2253093827564.298.372.498.869
2014 Projections5788930986113218.273.347.503.850
2014 Outlook: After chiseling a Rookie of the Year award (2007), an MVP (2011), five Silver Sluggers (2008-12) and three top-10 finishes on our Player Rater (second in 2012, third in 2011 and seventh in 2009) onto his career résumé, it all came crashing down for Braun in 2013, as he accepted a 65-game, season-ending suspension for violations of baseball's Basic Agreement and its Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Fantasy owners tend to be quick to judge; they might harshly deflate Braun's draft stock assuming that his post-suspension self might be significantly less in ability. But what right do we have to decide what he did, when he did it and what specific effect it had? Braun, before 2013, had showed an unparalleled combination of hit-for-average, hit-for-power and base-stealing ability, and his critics shouldn't instantly assume he can't again flash .300-hitting, 30/20 skills. He is now more of a guess because of the suspension as well as the thumb injury that cost him 36 games, but fantasy owners -- in any league regardless of format -- shouldn't allow him to slip too far beyond their first round or so, because of what he showed us from 2007-12. Stephania Bell: Braun has been on the verge of extended injury absence several times, but his first DL stint wasn't until 2013, the same year in which he served a suspension for PED use. Could this be when he starts to break down?
4. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics424712058619411.274.368.486.854
2014 Projections5458828806912116.288.370.521.891
2014 Outlook: Few players possess a wider range of potential 2014 outcomes than Harper: He is a 21-year-old, budding MVP candidate, but one who absorbed a slew of injury questions in 2013. To put it simply, he batted .300/.400/.622 with 10 home runs in his first 35 games of 2013 before crashing into the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium on May 13; he played only 83 of the Washington Nationals' next 124 games and batted .262/.356/.433 with 10 home runs thereafter. Harper's all-out style has spawned inquiries about whether the label "risk/reward" player need be applied in fantasy circles, but at the same time, he's a No. 1 overall draftee (2010), a two-time No. 2 prospect in baseball (Keith Law's 2011 and 2012 lists), and a player who had the fourth-most Wins Above Replacement through his age-20 season (9.0) of anyone in baseball history, behind only Mike Trout, Mel Ott and Ty Cobb. At some point Harper the stud will emerge and you'll want to already be on board, but we'd understand if you do so covering your eyes every time he attempts a play with reckless abandon. Stephania Bell: Harper dealt with chronic bursitis in his left knee last year and had October surgery to address the issue. He should be ready to start the season if he doesn't overdo it this spring.
5. Shin-Soo Choo*, Tex OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics569107215411213320.285.423.462.885
2014 Projections589104196410313221.284.408.453.861
2014 Outlook: One of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, Choo chose one of the most offensively advantageous landing spots for his skill set that he could have this winter, agreeing to a long-term deal with the Texas Rangers. Among players with at least 1,000 plate appearances the past five seasons combined, he had the sixth-highest on-base percentage (.392), a substantial gain for a team that had a mere .324 mark from its Nos. 1-2 hitters yet scored the eighth-most runs in the majors in 2013. Choo's gaudy run total of last season therefore has a good chance at being repeated, and he's a 20/20 capable player especially attractive in leagues that reward him for his walks. He's not a player without weakness -- he batted just .220/.333/.293 against lefties from 2011-13 -- but he's well worth regarding as a building block, even in shallow mixed.
6. Justin Upton, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics558942770751618.263.354.464.818
2014 Projections5717827917414915.271.359.473.832
2014 Outlook: His was a tale of two seasons. Upton batted .286/.404/.629 with 13 home runs through his first 40 games for the Atlanta Braves, looking like a surefire MVP candidate after years of such career prognostications but then hit just .256/.335/.409 with 14 home runs in his next 109 games, looking more like a league-average right fielder. (Hey, at least he wasn't the worst Upton.) Justin showed little skills improvement during his "cooling" stage, tempering some of those lofty career expectations as he enters his age-26 season. That said, he's still a player who has flashed occasional MVP talent, and one who, again, at 26, is entering the prime of his career. Could this be the season? Perhaps, but it's no longer worth spending that first-round pick to find out.
7. Ryan Zimmerman*, Wsh 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics568842679601336.275.344.465.809
2014 Projections582862788581276.282.347.478.825
2014 Outlook: Though Zimmerman's 2012-13 shows a much more consistent .280/25/85 performer than fantasy owners tend to give him credit for, his critics do raise important points. Injuries have long been an issue -- he averaged 133 games during the past six seasons -- his eroding defense at third base lends legitimacy to chatter that the Washington Nationals might eventually shift him across the diamond to first base and both his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates have risen in back-to-back seasons. For 2014, however, Zimmerman retains his third-base eligibility -- and he'll probably keep it at least through 2015, too -- meaning that, once again, he should settle in as a top-10 mixed-league third baseman and top-75 overall player. At this stage of his career, however, any upside from that status might be gone.
8. Yoenis Cespedes, Bos OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics529742680371377.240.294.442.737
2014 Projections5578327934413712.260.320.463.783
2014 Outlook: After a breakthrough 2012 in the States, Cespedes regressed badly in 2013, his strikeout rate rising (23.9 percent, up from 18.9), walk rate dropping (6.5 percent, down from 8.0) and both his batting average and BABIP plummeting by identical 52-point margins. This resulted in a 92-spot decline in Player Rater standing -- 28 spots among outfielders alone -- and a second consecutive season with a DL stint because of a hand injury continued to fuel questions about his long-term health as it relates to his violent swing. Cespedes still has massive power, however, as his isolated power and fly-ball and line-drive rates remained consistent in the two years, and if he enjoys any correction to his BABIP, he could recapture at least some of his 2012 fantasy stock. After all, he did finish 2013 with a .314/.337/.570, six-homer September, and a strong spring could increase his draft stock. It might be prime time to buy a rebound.
9. Allen Craig, Bos 1B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics508711397401002.315.373.457.830
2014 Projections518851996411004.309.364.485.848
2014 Outlook: Craig is much more of a risk/reward hitter than fantasy owners give him credit for. Consider that his 134 games played in 2013 represented a career high; he has appeared in only 67.8 percent of the St. Louis Cardinals' scheduled games (playoffs included) in his big-league career, making four trips to the DL in four years. Still, despite his injuries, Craig has the 10th-best batting average (.311) and 17th-most RBIs (189) the past two seasons combined, showing how productive a hitter he is when he takes the field. The RBIs might have been somewhat fluky; keep in mind that the Cardinals managed the highest batting average with runners in scoring position of any team in history, and Craig himself plated 24 percent of his runners on base, tops in the majors. His health might also remain in question as a regular outfielder; he's expected to move to right field to clear first base for Matt Adams. Craig's ceiling is awfully high and he's more reliable (when healthy) than Adams, but be prepared with a contingency plan for the likelihood he misses additional time in 2014. Stephania Bell: Craig suffered a Lisfranc injury while rounding first base last September but was able to avoid offseason surgery. He expects to be a full participant this spring although the key will be how well he's running.
10. Ben Zobrist, TB 2B, SS, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics612771271729111.275.354.402.756
2014 Projections6149116828310114.282.369.440.808
2014 Outlook: Zobrist is a fantasy darling for a variety of reasons: Most obvious is that he qualifies at three different positions in leagues with a 20-game requirement, including the critical middle-infield spots (second base and shortstop) to go along with the outfield. But he's also a category filler with additional value in walks and on-base percentage leagues; he is the only player in baseball to have at least 75 home runs, 75 stolen bases and 400 walks in the past five seasons combined, with his annual averages tallying 18/17 with 86 walks and a .366 on-base percentage during that time. Despite his declining homer and steal numbers in 2013, he is one of the more attractive early-to-mid rounders based upon the flexibility alone.
11. Starling Marte, Pit OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics5108312352513841.280.343.441.784
2014 Projections5818211462915437.263.321.411.732
2014 Outlook: A free-swinging, speedy type with a hint of power, Marte got off to a hot start in 2013, batting .291 with nine home runs and 28 steals in 88 first-half games, defying the scouts who didn't typically rank him among the top prospects in the game entering the year. As expected, his batting average regressed; he hit .254 with three homers and 13 steals in 47 games in the second half, his strikeout rate swelling to 29.7 percent during that time. Still, so long as you neither expect his .290-plus batting average of last year's first half, or the .303 career mark he had in the minors, Marte is an attractive rotisserie-league target thanks to his potential to fill the steals/runs/homers categories. More patience would serve him well, but as a 25-year-old with the prime of his career ahead of him, Marte is well worth the early-to-mid-round pick in that format, though he's somewhat less intriguing in sabermetrically minded scoring.
12. Matt Kemp, LAD OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics2633563322769.270.328.395.723
2014 Projections4497419724412617.283.349.472.821
2014 Outlook: Injuries have knocked Kemp from his former first-round fantasy perch; since topping the 2011 Player Rater, he plummeted to 92nd in 2012 and 388th in 2013, missing 56 and then 89 games in those years. Though he's still an attractive option during his healthy games, the injury question remains as valid with him entering 2014 as anyone: He had a surgery to repair the AC joint in his left shoulder in early October, a surgery to repair torn cartilage in his left ankle only a couple of weeks later, and now his status for Opening Day is in doubt. It's that ankle issue that casts doubt upon his fantasy prospects, resulting in his modest ranking, as it threatens his ability to steal bases, which fueled much of his value from 2008-11. Kemp could use some promising news during spring training to improve his draft-day stock; for now, understand that his ceiling is high, but his risk just as high.
Stephania Bell: Kemp struggled with multiple injuries last season -- including his hamstring and shoulder -- but the ankle is the worrisome element heading into this year. Still on a modified running program to protect the joint, it's unclear when Kemp's season will start, but it won't likely be in Australia in March.
Addendum (3/12): Kemp began running on land in early March and progressed to intrasquad games this week. While playing in Australia still appears unlikely, Kemp’s progress is an encouraging sign that he may not be out as long as originally feared.
13. Matt Holliday, StL OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics520103229469866.300.389.490.879
2014 Projections51591208768974.295.384.476.860
2014 Outlook: Consistency has been the name of Holliday's game. He and Miguel Cabrera are the only two players to have batted at least .290 with 20 home runs in each of the past eight seasons, and during his four full seasons with the St. Louis Cardinals, he has averaged .301-25-94 numbers. Even at age 34, Holliday is one of the more reliable early-round selections among outfielders, though his odds of a small step backward remain greater than one forward. He has made trips to the DL in two of the past three seasons, plus has battled minor bumps and bruises, and he's beginning to show weaknesses on pitches up in the zone, batting .105 on those the past two seasons combined. We're splitting hairs, yes, but with name brands like Holliday's, we need to outline causes for caution.
14. Mark Trumbo, Ari 1B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics6208534100541845.234.294.453.747
2014 Projections523733392411445.252.308.501.809
2014 Outlook: If such a thing as a "first-half player" exists -- it's a notion that has been largely overstated during the 30-plus-year history of Rotisserie baseball -- Trumbo would top the list of candidates. Through three big-league seasons, he has hit 60 of his 95 home runs before the All-Star break, his batting average 41 points higher before (.268) than after (.227) it and his slugging percentage 107 points higher before (.517) than after (.410) it. Tuck that away if you're the lucky owner to secure his draft-day rights; ads for your Trumbo sale should run during every commercial break by mid-June. That said, he's still a remarkably powerful slugger, and one surrendering Angel Stadium for the more hitting-conducive dimensions of Chase Field, meaning a fourth consecutive season of setting new personal bests in home runs is possible. To be clear: No double coupons, and no deep Black Friday discounts. (OK, maybe we'll allow it in leagues that penalize for strikeouts or use on-base percentage.)
15. Alex Gordon, KC OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics6339020815214111.265.327.422.749
2014 Projections6358920766014912.274.341.444.785
2014 Outlook: Two straight seasons of a BABIP well above the league norm buoyed Gordon's production, but last season, he failed to maintain that elevated level and his average fell. Fortunately, a spike in his fly ball percentage propelled his homers back to the 20 plateau, so his production did not suffer much. All totaled, Gordon has one of the more stable skill sets in the league. There will be some variance around his batting average, but his consistency and durability are more important considerations. Gordon is falling into the boring stage of his career, but boring can help build a stable, winning foundation. And winning is by no means boring.