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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Mike Trout, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics55912930836713949.326.399.564.963
2013 Projections61511222696014946.285.351.472.823
2013 Outlook: We have never seen a rookie season like the one Trout just put forth. We might never again. He became the first rookie -- and youngest player -- in history to join the 30/30 club, the first player (not just rookie, player) to manage at least 30 home runs, 45 stolen bases and 125 runs in a season, and only the fourth player to bat at least .320 with 30 homers at the age of 20 or younger (Mel Ott, Ted Williams and Alex Rodriguez are the others). Trout also did so while providing outstanding defense -- his 21 Defensive Runs Saved were third-most among outfielders -- assuring he'll remain a fixture in the Angels' everyday lineup. We might have just witnessed the best year of Trout's career, and obviously his chances of regressing somewhat are high. But to what extent? His MVP-race detractors routinely pointed out his "late-season swoon," which amounted to a .269/.369/.455 line with six homers and eight steals; those project to 26 homers and 35 steals over a full year. Well, we've done the math for you: Even that level of performance would still earn Trout an easy place among the three most productive players in fantasy baseball. Talk about a downside -- or, in this case, lack thereof.
2. Andrew McCutchen, Pit OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics59310731967013220.327.400.553.953
2013 Projections59910127918112624.299.384.509.894
2013 Outlook: Looking for a catalyst for the Pirates' incredible run the first four months of last season? Look no further than McCutchen, who in 2012 added 51 points of batting average and 131 points of OPS to his 2009-11 cumulative numbers, while becoming only the fifth player in Pirates history, and first in seven years, to manage a 30/20 season. That resulted in the fourth-best fantasy season by any individual player. McCutchen's critics will cite his .375 BABIP, fourth-highest in the league and 78 points higher than the major league average; we'll counter with his .282 well-hit average (percentage of his at-bats in which he made hard contact), also fourth-highest and 85 points higher than the average, meaning that his BABIP should have been higher than usual. Just 26 years of age, McCutchen is at the dawn of his big-league prime. He's a first-rounder for sure, and with a stronger supporting cast -- read: runs/RBIs -- he might make a compelling case for No. 1.
3. Matt Kemp, LAD OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics403742369401039.303.367.538.906
2013 Projections55998331036014717.297.367.540.907
2013 Outlook: Fantasy's No. 1 player in 2011, Kemp, for the first six weeks last season, appeared on track to repeat the effort. Then hamstring injuries struck; they would cost him 51 of 162 Dodger games in 2012 and cast doubt upon his future production in the stolen base department, a key part of his fantasy game. Projecting his output to a full year, he'd have stolen only 14 bases, still his worst total in his five seasons as a regular. Still, even if that's Kemp's new baseline in the category, he's an in-his-prime 28-year-old whose contributions with his bat should easily elevate him into the top 10 -- and arguably top five -- in mixed leagues, and make him a viable No. 2 pick in NL-only formats. Consider his per-162-game rates the past three seasons: .291 batting average, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs, 103 runs scored. The primary question about Kemp this spring should be the condition of his shoulder, which required surgery in October, though most indications are that he should be ready by Opening Day. If so, considering the Dodgers' intent to improve the talent surrounding him, Kemp should again rank among the leaders in homers, RBIs and runs scored.
4. Josh Hamilton, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics56210343128601627.285.354.577.930
2013 Projections5299334115511247.293.355.558.912
2013 Outlook: After a successful five-year run in Texas that included earning 2010 American League MVP honors and three Silver Sluggers awards while making two World Series appearances, Hamilton signed on with the division-rival Angels during the offseason. In doing so, he gave up the advantages of hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark; he had an OPS 107 points higher and batted 21 points higher there than on the road during his Rangers career. That's not to say that Hamilton's fantasy prospects are doomed by changing venues, as his .294/.356/.514 career rates outside of Rangers Ballpark remain outstanding, and he's joining an Angels lineup potent enough to continue padding his runs/RBIs. Hamilton's greater concerns are his rising swing-and-miss rate -- he missed on a major league-high 36 percent of his swings last season and whiffed 29.3 percent of the time after the All-Star break -- and his propensity for injury, as he averaged 129 games per year with the Rangers, making three trips to the DL. Expect another All-Star season, but his days of .300 batting averages are likely over.
5. Adam Jones, Bal OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics64810332823412616.287.334.505.839
2013 Projections6309029923212415.287.331.487.818
2013 Outlook: Jones' career has followed an almost perfect aging curve, culminating in career highs in games played (162), plate appearances (697), hits (186), doubles (39), home runs (32), runs scored (103), batting average (.287) and slugging percentage (.505) as a 26-year-old in 2012. Though his performance might be somewhat glossed over by the so-called "Orioles magic," in truth his output shouldn't have been unexpected. He has long been regarded a budding power hitter with above-average speed; his weakness is that his plate discipline hasn't improved to the point where he'll ever be an asset in terms of batting average. What we saw from Jones in 2012 might have been about his peak expectation, but he's only entering the prime years of his career. Might there be more? It's possible, but his drafting owners would hardly complain if the result was an out-and-out repeat.
6. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5339822595612018.270.340.477.817
2013 Projections5868727936413522.266.339.478.817
2013 Outlook: Harper's Rookie of the Year campaign, an honor earned at the age of 19, put him up there with some of the best players in history. His 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was the most in any single season by a teenager, and he was only the eighth player in history with at least 2.0 WAR solely on offense (he had 3.4). And in terms of fantasy stats, Harper's 22 homers are second-most and his 18 stolen bases third-most by a teenager. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, something fantasy owners have known since the instant he was tabbed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and there should come a time -- sooner rather than later  when he's tallying MVP-caliber statistics, meaning he's one of the most valuable commodities out there in dynasty leagues. Could the transformation happen this season? Perhaps. But Harper did bat .260 after the All-Star break, and both his 20.1 percent strikeout and 45.3 percent ground ball rates for the full year say that it might be a more gradual transformation. There's a danger that Harper buzz could spiral out of control, pushing him close to first-round status. His ceiling is in that class; more realistic expectations should have him just outside of the elite group ... for 2013 alone, that is.
7. Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics30343426194314.271.313.370.682
2013 Projections523861764387627.294.345.465.810
2013 Outlook: If there were a fantasy baseball dictionary, Ellsbury's headshot should be listed next to "risk/reward player." His career fits: He has per-162-game averages of 16 homers, 53 stolen bases, 107 runs scored, 73 RBIs and a .297 batting average, but in the past three seasons alone he has made four trips to the DL for a grand total of 222 games missed. In Ellsbury's defense, some of those injuries were fluky, such as the rib injury he suffered crashing into Adrian Beltre in the field, but he also warrants criticism for being slow to recover from his ailments. Thankfully, Ellsbury's legs have yet to become a problem, a plus considering so much of his fantasy value is gleaned from his speed. He is the kind of player who makes a valid case to be one of the 10 most valuable players in fantasy baseball if healthy, but is among the most likely to miss time of the early-round targets. How lucky do you feel?
8. B.J. Upton, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5737928784516931.246.298.454.752
2013 Projections5758423776016531.245.316.431.747
2013 Outlook: Upton rode a 21-homer second half in 2012 to a five-year, $75 million payday with the Atlanta Braves, and there's always a danger with high-profile free-agent signees that their skill sets become exaggerated. A 21.6 home run/fly ball percentage contributed to Upton's sudden power outburst; to put it into perspective, keep in mind that he had an 11.3 average in the category from 2009 to '12. To say he fit the profile of a "contract-year player" stepping up his skills is fair, especially considering past questions about Upton's focus on the field. But in his defense, Upton not only finished among the top 50 players on our Player Rater in 2012, but he also did so in 2011, showing the value (for Fantasy purposes) of his 19-homer, 36-steal averages during his six full big-league seasons. He's a liability in the batting average category, but one of the better power/speed options in the game.
9. Yoenis Cespedes, Oak OF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics4877023824310216.292.356.505.861
2013 Projections5527726915011418.279.347.496.843
2013 Outlook: Many questioned the Athletics' four-year, $36 million investment in Cespedes last February, but his rookie campaign couldn't be quantified as anything other than a complete success. Despite missing 33 games with hand, wrist and hamstring injuries, he managed a No. 56 ranking on our Player Rater, and perhaps more importantly became one of three players to manage at least a .300 batting average with double-digit homers and steals after the All-Star break, joining Ryan Braun and Mike Trout. Cespedes' max-effort swing might make him susceptible to further aches and pains, but it also hints at greater power potential, and he seemed to improve as a base runner with experience, stealing 12 of his 16 bases after July 1. He also cut down on his swing-and-miss rate, which dropped from 32 percent before the All-Star break to 25 percent after, meaning he might have growth potential in 2013. Draft him at his 2012 earnings, leaving some profit potential.
10. Michael Bourn, Cle OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics624969577015542.274.348.391.739
2013 Projections604895496213643.268.337.368.705
2013 Outlook: Bourn finally found work with the Indians juuuuuust before spring camps opened, and high-paying work at that: Four years and $48 million, locking him in as the team's everyday center fielder and leadoff man. He is still largely the player we've witnessed in any of his five full big league seasons; he's an annual stolen-base title contender whose .339 career on-base percentage should earn him the top-two lineup spot that would drive his runs scored total close to 100. His power in 2012, however, was almost entirely fluky. Five of his nine homers came in a 76-plate-appearance span last May; for perspective, he hit that many total in his previous 1,881 PAs. Though a two-category performer in rotisserie leagues, Bourn is so talented in those two categories that he shouldn't linger beyond the first five to six rounds of your mixed-league draft.
11. Austin Jackson*, Det OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics54310316666713412.300.377.479.856
2013 Projections62411015627117024.282.357.436.793
2013 Outlook: Judging by Jackson's career statistical profile, he looks like a player who believes that one creates his own luck. A "fortunate" fella who rode a .396 BABIP to a No. 2 finish in the American League Rookie of the Year race in 2010, Jackson has since made numerous improvements to his approach at the plate to mitigate the luck factors. Last season, he made massive advances with both his walk (career-high 10.9 percent) and strikeout (career-low 21.7 percent) rates, he cut his ground ball rate by 8 percent and he set a new personal best with a .228 well-hit average. The result was Jackson's first .300 season -- one truly earned -- a boost in power and a healthy .377 on-base percentage that drove his 103 runs scored. The only knocks on his year were his early-season DL stint for an abdominal strain, and a decline in stolen bases. If Jackson can stay healthy this year, though, he might be an under-the-radar candidate to lead the league in runs. Coupled with the other contributions he makes in rotisserie leagues, he could be quite a value in the early-to-middle rounds.
12. Desmond Jennings, TB OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5058513474612031.246.314.388.702
2013 Projections5929815545813836.252.326.397.723
2013 Outlook: Jennings' presence is a major reason the Rays allowed B.J. Upton to depart via free agency during the winter; he'll shift to center field and, statistically, isn't a far cry from Upton outside of the home runs. Now in his prime -- he's 26 -- and with parts of three seasons' big league experience, Jennings might have already made the adjustments necessary to be a breakthrough performer in 2013. His .258/.329/.419 rates, eight homers and 16-for-17 stolen-base performance the second half of last season look quite a bit like the player we saw in Triple-A or the second half of 2011 in the majors, and if you play in a league that values on-base percentage rather than batting average, he's especially attractive thanks to a 9.0 percent career walk rate. Jennings' most bankable asset is his speed; if he gets on base at a .350 clip, he could swipe as many as 50 bags. Anything else he offers beyond his career-to-date averages would be gravy.
13. Shin-Soo Choo, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5988816677315021.283.373.441.815
2013 Projections5749217597313821.280.372.441.813
2013 Outlook: Choo bounced back from a down 2011 campaign, which was marred by injuries and dealing with a DUI. Many expect the move to Cincinnati will help Choo regain some lost power. The problem is that Choo's old digs, Progressive Field, increase left-handed power at a rate equal to the Great American Ball Park. In addition, Choo's home runs were depressed last season as a result of a big drop in fly ball rate; his HR/FB was normal. Choo will always carry some risk, as his strikeout rate is high and he thus relies on a high BABIP to maintain his batting average. When healthy, though, Choo hits enough line drives to support an elevated BABIP. Choo's power/speed combo is enticing. Just temper expectations despite a perceived friendlier hitting venue.
14. Carlos Gomez, Mil OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics415721951209837.260.305.463.768
2013 Projections4677417462611633.248.296.422.718
2013 Outlook: After five seasons as almost literally a one-category player, Gomez finally offered fantasy owners a hint of power in 2012. His pitch recognition and aggressiveness improved -- he swung 8 percent more often on pitches in the strike zone than he had two years prior and his well-hit average rose nearly 100 points -- and he got more lift on the ball, his ground ball rate dropping to a career-low 42.0 percent. Gomez's additions do give him a chance at filling the homers and steals columns for his fantasy owners, but that makes him much more a rotisserie asset than one in points-based leagues. He's a dreadful batting average performer and is even worse at drawing walks -- his career on-base percentage is .294! -- and the Brewers might not promise him everyday at-bats as a result. To give you a sense, in fantasy terms, of Gomez's range of 2013 probabilities, B.J. Upton's 2012 would be the absolute best case, while Cameron Maybin's 2012 might be a fair low-end expectation.
15. Curtis Granderson, NYY OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics596102431067519510.232.319.492.811
2013 Projections4648830826013510.246.336.498.834
2013 Outlook: A broken arm suffered early in Spring Training will cost Granderson the first month of the season, but we still like his chances to hit 30 homers in five months. Here's a statistic that exemplifies the kind of slugger that Granderson has become: In 2012, he became the fifth Yankee in history with repeat 40-homer years, while also setting a franchise record for the highest percentage of plate appearances that ended in a strikeout (28.5 percent). Perhaps recognizing how apt a style for Yankee Stadium, Granderson has become an all-or-nothing, pull-power player, and it has resulted in the most homers hit at the venue over the past three years (61). By doing so, however, last season he gave back some of the gains that he made in his walk rate (down 1.3 percent) and he attempted fewer steals (22 fewer attempts). All that points to a player who has become more volatile in terms of batting average and, coupled with the drop in steals, also volatile in fantasy value. The Yankees, too, have lineup questions for the first time in years, threatening Granderson's runs/RBI production when he comes back, picking him can hamstring a fantasy team, so make sure you can deal with his low batting average if you select him, along with needing to fill in for him with another outfielder for the month of April.
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