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Complete 2013 Projections

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ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. Buster Posey, SF C, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics530782410369961.336.408.549.957
2013 Projections55076249867942.318.392.520.912
2013 Outlook: Few players historically were more obvious choices for Comeback Player of the Year honors than Posey in 2012. Remember, one year ago at this time, our last image of Posey was the nasty home-plate collision with Florida Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins on May 25, 2011, that resulted in a fractured fibula, torn ankle ligaments and serious questions whether Posey could ever return to the daily chores of catching. Return to catching he did, and return to excellence at bat he did. He became the first catcher in 13 seasons to manage at least a .330 batting average, 20 home runs and 100 RBIs, and the result was the National League's MVP award. Again from a historical perspective, Posey's career ascent looks much like that of Mike Piazza, a Hall of Fame candidate: Posey has .314/.380/.503 rates in 308 career games in his first three seasons, while Piazza had .312/.364/.537 in 277 games in his first three. This is a once-in-a-generation catching talent, one who gets enough "time off" at first base to keep him healthy, and one who is so valuable relative to replacement at the position to warrant being one of the first picks off the board.
17. David Wright, NYM 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5819121938111215.306.391.492.883
2013 Projections59393271008212917.287.373.494.867
2013 Outlook: The Mets' clear franchise player after they signed him during the winter to an eight-year, $138 million extension through 2020, Wright has proven himself well worth the label after adapting his game to the team's more pitching-friendly ballpark. Citi Field's spacious fences have forced him to adapt his swing more for contact -- he whiffed only 16.7 percent of the time in 2012, after three straight years above 20 percent -- and Wright began to use the entire field last year once the Mets shrunk the outfield dimensions slightly. This is not a lock of a 30-homer power source, or a batting title contender, but rather a complete player who might challenge for .300 and 25, plus one who has averaged 20 steals over his eight full big league seasons. The sum is one of the most balanced contributors in all rotisserie categories, a rarity at third base and someone who warrants a pick in the first two rounds in any league format -- first round if the league (NL-only?) is deep enough.
18. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics604953610236821.321.359.561.921
2013 Projections579953410733713.313.350.556.906
2013 Outlook: Texas certainly seems to agree with Beltre. In his two seasons with the Rangers, he's a .338/.381/.644 hitter with 43 home runs at Rangers Ballpark, his slugging percentage tops among qualifiers and his homers second-most during that span. But don't let that convince you that he's a mere ballpark product; his .283 average and 25 homers on the road the past two seasons combined would be well worthy of having in any fantasy lineup. Now 34 years old (as of April 7) -- remarkable that he's that young for a 15-year veteran -- Beltre has shed the label of career disappointment and developed into one of the more consistently reliable options at his position. At worst, he's a .290-hitting, 25-homer candidate. To put that into fantasy terms, only three other third basemen have met those minimums in any of the past three seasons: Miguel Cabrera (2012), Aramis Ramirez (2011-12) and Ryan Zimmerman (2010).
19. Josh Hamilton, LAA OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics56210343128601627.285.354.577.930
2013 Projections5299334115511247.293.355.558.912
2013 Outlook: After a successful five-year run in Texas that included earning 2010 American League MVP honors and three Silver Sluggers awards while making two World Series appearances, Hamilton signed on with the division-rival Angels during the offseason. In doing so, he gave up the advantages of hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark; he had an OPS 107 points higher and batted 21 points higher there than on the road during his Rangers career. That's not to say that Hamilton's fantasy prospects are doomed by changing venues, as his .294/.356/.514 career rates outside of Rangers Ballpark remain outstanding, and he's joining an Angels lineup potent enough to continue padding his runs/RBIs. Hamilton's greater concerns are his rising swing-and-miss rate -- he missed on a major league-high 36 percent of his swings last season and whiffed 29.3 percent of the time after the All-Star break -- and his propensity for injury, as he averaged 129 games per year with the Rangers, making three trips to the DL. Expect another All-Star season, but his days of .300 batting averages are likely over.
20. Jose Bautista, Tor OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics33264276559635.241.358.527.886
2013 Projections508984110895998.268.387.561.948
2013 Outlook: A left wrist injury he suffered on a swing during a July 16 game derailed the most impressive power streak in baseball the past half-decade: From Sept. 1, 2009, through July 16, 2012, Bautista hit a major league-leading 134 home runs, 34 more than anyone else. Unfortunately, that wrist issue dogged the slugger for the rest of the year, as he aggravated the problem two games into an August return, eventually succumbing to season-ending surgery. Bautista said in January that he has fully healed, but his spring might prove the ultimate test, specifically whether the injury has sapped any of his power. If it fully returns, he'll benefit from the Blue Jays' substantial lineup upgrades in the Nos. 1-2 spots -- Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera combined had an on-base percentage 59 points higher than what the Blue Jays got out of those two spots in 2012 -- and perhaps make another run at top-10-overall status. Keep careful watch on his March.
21. Evan Longoria, TB 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics27339175533612.289.369.527.896
2013 Projections5389234109771148.294.385.550.935
2013 Outlook: Longoria is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the most injury-prone players in the game, and to an extent that's fair. He has played only 637 of 800 scheduled Rays games since his big league debut and made three trips to the DL, though in his defense two could be termed fluky: He suffered a fractured wrist on a hit-by-pitch in 2008, and his partially torn left hamstring last year was the result of a slide into second on a stolen base attempt. Picking Longoria in the early rounds requires a leap of faith, so we'll give you his 2012 stats prorated to 162 games to outline your hope: .289 batting average, 36 home runs, 116 RBIs, 82 runs scored. Fantasy owners in points-based leagues might be more apt to chance it; he's one of the better players in terms of plate discipline, his 0.67 walks-per-strikeout ratio the past three seasons combined ranking him in the upper 20 percent of qualifiers. Longoria belongs in the discussion for the top 25 overall players in any format on skills, but the longer he slides in your draft, the comfier you'll feel.
22. Felix Hernandez, Sea SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2012 Statistics3333232.05622313003.061.148.65
2013 Projections3333239.06122514003.011.118.47
2013 Outlook: If only the Mariners could score King Felix some runs. Wins are Hernandez's greatest "shortcoming"; he has only 40 wins combined the past three seasons despite a 2.92 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, because the Mariners have afforded him a major-league-low 3.50 runs per nine innings of support during that time. His skills, however, rival those of the best starting pitchers in the game. He's a workhorse, his 715 1/3 innings pitched the past three years combined are the most in the majors; he's coming off a year in which he set personal bests in terms of both his strikeout (23.8 percent of total batters faced, 8.65 per nine innings) and walk rates (6.0 and 2.17); and he has the ability to be untouchable on any given night, best evidenced by his major-league-leading 30 outings of at least eight innings allowing one run or fewer from 2010-12. If Hernandez simply pitched for a better team, he might be a candidate to be the first pitcher off the board in rotisserie leagues. In leagues that award quality starts, however, he's a more compelling candidate, having amassed the third-most of those from 2010-12 combined (73).
23. Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2012 Statistics2828159.14819715003.161.1511.13
2013 Projections3333193.05323416003.171.1310.91
2013 Outlook: Are the restrictions off? Ah, that is the question. One of the most-discussed players in all of baseball in 2012, Strasburg, on a per-start basis, was as productive a pitcher as anyone in fantasy. However, the Nationals ended his season in early September at 159 1/3 innings pitched, their concerns about Strasburg's health in his first full campaign following Tommy John surgery a greater priority than their own playoff fate. In doing so, the team demonstrated it has a clear rehabilitation plan, as rotation mate Jordan Zimmermann pitched 161 1/3 innings in his first year coming off that surgery, then 195 2/3 in his follow-up year. Does that mean Strasburg is now ticketed for 195 2/3 frames of his own? It's a smart bet, and projecting his career-to-date statistics to that number results in 16 wins, 244 strikeouts, a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Those are tops-among-starting-pitchers fantasy statistics, and they underscore his tremendous upside as he enters his age-24 campaign. He's also much more attractive a pick in head-to-head leagues this year, based upon greater probability of him completing the regular season.
24. David Price*, TB SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2012 Statistics3131211.05920520002.561.108.74
2013 Projections3333216.06321319003.171.168.88
2013 Outlook: The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, Price is a pitcher who was still trending upward statistically even as he concluded his outstanding 2012 campaign. Consider that he was 14-for-15 in quality starts with nine wins, a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 108 strikeouts the second half of the season, and from a year-over-year standpoint, he has increased both his strikeout-to-walk ratio and his average fastball velocity in each of the past three seasons. Oh, toss in the fact that his ground-ball rate has risen accordingly in the same three-year pattern, to the point that it was higher than 50 percent in 2012 (52.4, to be exact), and Price has become a high-strikeout, ground-ball-inducing dynamo, minimizing his risk of regression. Wins might be a difficult category for American League East pitchers -- Price's 20 carried a healthy chunk of value in rotisserie -- but that might be the only category in which he stands to suffer any noticeable decline. Now 27, he is a member of the game's elite, and he should be drafted as such.
25. Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics563811565486020.290.347.449.797
2013 Projections600921770677020.293.364.453.818
2013 Outlook: It was not the best year for Pedroia or his right hand. In early May, the diminutive second baseman sprained his right thumb, but he toughed it out at the expense of production, as evidenced by his uncharacteristically poor pre-All-Star-break line of .266 with only six homers and six steals. Then in late July, Pedroia tore a ligament in his right pinkie, which necessitated offseason surgery. The pinkie did not bother Pedroia nearly as much, as he returned to form, going .318 with nine homers and an impressive 20 steals after the break. Pedroia could be moved down in the order, leading to more RBI opportunities. Regardless, the former rookie of the year and MVP should again be among the most valuable second basemen.
26. Ian Kinsler, Tex 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6551051972609021.256.326.423.749
2013 Projections6151032368727921.265.349.450.799
2013 Outlook: My, how quickly a player sheds the injury-prone label. After making two trips to the DL in 2010 alone while averaging 124 games played per year from 2006-10, Kinsler amassed the most plate appearances in baseball the past two seasons combined, sitting out only 12 games total in 2011-12. This afforded him the opportunity to total 51 home runs and 51 stolen bases in those two years, making him the only second baseman and one of only three players overall to amass at least 50 of each. With health no longer a valid criticism, Kinsler's only weakness is batting average, odd considering he had a remarkably low strikeout rate (11.4 percent) and swing-and-miss rate (11.8 percent) in those two seasons. No matter -- it's that contact ability that makes him one of the most attractive selections in points-based leagues. Kinsler also makes a compelling case to be picked in the first three rounds in rotisserie, too, considering his skills relative to his second-base brethren.
27. Jason Heyward, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5879327825815221.269.335.479.814
2013 Projections6029330967315422.261.344.478.822
2013 Outlook: And that, fantasy owners, is why it's dangerous to give up on a 22-year-old former No. 1 overall prospect (Heyward was Keith Law's top prospect in 2010). After a sophomore season ruined by shoulder problems and a penchant for weak ground balls, Heyward exploded in his third full big league year, becoming one of 10 players to go 20/20 in 2012. A more aggressive approach helped -- he swung 3 percent more often overall and 10 percent more often on pitches over the inside of the plate -- and the result was a major correction to his ground ball rate. He hit 10 percent fewer grounders, a massive improvement. Better health contributed, and Heyward's bolder approach in stealing bases only bolstered his value. As more of a free-swinger maximizing his power, he's a bit riskier than anticipated in terms of batting average (and therefore points-league value) than when he was rising the minor league chain, but few players possess the 30-homer, 20-steal potential that he does. That the Braves spent the winter retooling their lineup might also help Heyward in terms of RBIs and runs. He's well worth an early-round pick.
28. Jose Reyes*, Tor SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics642861157635640.287.347.433.780
2013 Projections578881047515034.291.345.441.787
2013 Outlook: Part of the Miami Marlins' 2012 one-year-and-done spending spree, Reyes was traded to the Blue Jays in November in one of the largest salary dumps in baseball history. Frankly, from a fantasy perspective, the Marlins did Reyes a favor. In Toronto, he'll bat atop the most potent lineup he has been a part of in at least five years, and keep in mind that in 2008 he scored 113 runs to finish fifth in the majors in the category. Reyes was a top-10-caliber fantasy player back then, and that's his upside in 2013, the primary reason why he's not ranked as such with the injuries he has since battled. He made two separate trips to the DL for hamstring issues in 2011 and has missed occasional contests with hamstring and oblique injuries in the past three years. Plus, as a soon-to-be 30-year-old (June 11), he might not quite be as physically equipped to man the Rogers Centre's artificial turf on an every-night basis. Don't let Reyes slip deep into your draft, especially considering the dearth of quality shortstops, but beware of inflating your expectations of him in his new city.
29. Matt Cain, SF SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9
2012 Statistics3232219.15119316002.791.047.92
2013 Projections3333210.05519417002.961.148.31
2013 Outlook: Sometimes, converting batted balls put into the field of play -- meaning non-strikeouts, walks or home runs -- into outs is a skill. Cain is the only pitcher in baseball to have finished among the 10 best in the game in BABIP allowed in each of the past four seasons, his .263 number in the category during that span the lowest among pitchers with at least 100 starts. He is not a "lucky" pitcher, but rather a consistent ace who might garner more headlines if his Giants could have only won him more games. To that point about consistency, among the pitchers who made 15 or more starts last season, Cain never had an individual Game Score lower than 38, a feat that nobody else in the game can claim, and his 60.6 average Game Score was fifth-best among qualified starters. Maybe the Giants will be unable to push his win total into the 20s, putting him into serious Cy Young consideration. But even if they don't, isn't there something to be said for a pitcher with the skills to lead your squad and do it without the worry of ever having to move him to your bench to avoid the most treacherous matchups?
30. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5429342110849413.280.384.557.941
2013 Projections554933699719210.283.369.534.904
2013 Outlook: Like teammate Jose Bautista two seasons before him, Encarnacion blossomed in the power department during his age-29 campaign. As Bautista did, Encarnacion warmed to hitting coach Dwayne Murphy's "pick your pitch, then swing hard" philosophy, and it helped that he both adjusted his swing and shed 10 pounds before the season, increasing his bat speed. Encarnacion swatted 42 home runs -- 28 of them pulled to left field, another Bautista-esque trait -- in 151 games, four more than he had hit in 2010-11 combined and only eight shy of Bautista's breakout 2010 total albeit in 10 fewer contests. He also maintained his power throughout, hitting 19 homers after the All-Star break and seven in September, though he gave back much of his batting-average gains late, hitting .261 in the second half and .238 in September. Encarnacion's power is legit and his 14.6 percent strikeout rate eases those batting average concerns somewhat. Like Bautista, he should be good for a few more years of power totals that rank among the league's leaders.
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