Complete 2014 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | OF | SP | RP
2013 Statistics5353128190.151.270.340.609
2014 Projections522753081671113.247.337.471.808
2014 Outlook: A wrist injury effectively ruined Teixeira's 2013 campaign, limiting him to 15 games and resulting in season-ending surgery in July to repair a torn tendon sheath in his right wrist. He'll be on the road to recovery this spring, and while he's projected to be in the Opening Day lineup, chances are we won't see him at 100 percent until sometime midsummer, if not until 2015. This is a major concern for Teixeira, whose OPS was in a six-year pattern of decline anyway, and who seemed to adapt his swing to surrender batting average points in exchange for taking aim at Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. He could return as the kind of .250-average/30-homer threat he was in 2011 and 2012, or he could be a .270/20 type who must adapt to diminished power, or a player who struggles to remain on the field for a third straight year. Teixeira is one of the riskier picks entering 2014, though his ballpark, lineup and past reputation dictate that he shouldn't slide too far in your draft.
2013 Statistics454532050641190.238.334.412.746
2014 Projections497622571661282.258.347.455.802
2014 Outlook: It was one four years in the making and at a lesser level than scouts' initial projections, but Smoak experienced a mini-breakthrough in 2013 that spawns optimism about his future. He drove the ball with more authority, setting career highs with 20 homers, a .412 slugging percentage and a 46.7 percent fly-ball rate. Still, Smoak is a liability at the plate from the right side, making him a more attractive choice in daily leagues or shallow mixed formats, where he can be freely mixed and matched. If you go cheap at first base, take a chance on him late.
2013 Statistics531631973501256.234.314.407.721
2014 Projections487622071441178.251.324.439.763
2014 Outlook: In 2012, Frazier sported an above-average BABIP fully supported by a high line drive rate. The question coming into 2013 would be whether he could maintain an elevated line drive rate, and the answer turned out to be no. As such, Frazier's BABIP torpedoed, bringing his batting average along with it. Some positive regression should be expected, but even so, a high strikeout rate caps his average. Frazier has the pop to clear 20 homers, so if you can cover his average, he can be a decent source of power for those waiting on a corner infielder. Just realize that he hits lower in the order, so his run production will suffer a bit.
2013 Statistics28634114323950.266.319.465.784
2014 Projections469602671451600.260.326.495.821
2014 Outlook: With only 609 plate appearances the past two seasons combined, Howard is the modern day Forgotten Man. Howard's 2013 was ended prematurely in July after surgery to repair the meniscus in his left knee. Now healthy, Howard will look to regain the power stroke that made him one of the league's most productive hitters prior to rupturing his Achilles tendon. Perhaps due to dealing with knee soreness most of last season's first half, Howard hit only 11 homers, though he did swat 20 doubles to provide hope. As always, expect Howard to do the bulk of his damage versus right-handers.
2013 Statistics36641165235997.235.305.410.715
2014 Projections4235420574812311.243.324.430.755
2014 Outlook: Signed by the New York Yankees as a stopgap solution at either second or third base -- remember that they lost Robinson Cano to free agency and Alex Rodriguez to a season-long suspension -- Johnson is a hitter who fits the confines of Yankee Stadium. He's a left-handed pull hitter who had a 46.3 percent fly-ball rate in 2013, making him quite the attractive daily-league target. Although Johnson lacks the obvious platoon split that would lock him into such a role, the Yankees will more than likely pick and choose his games, most of them against right-handers, so understand that his fantasy potential is probably capped as AL-only or deep-mixed material.
2013 Statistics506642982702122.223.320.451.770
2014 Projections504692885712012.228.325.454.779
2014 Outlook: Feel that cool breeze: In 2013, Carter set an all-time record with his 36.2 percent strikeout rate. Take that to heart before you simply apply the label "three true outcomes" slugger, because unlike typical "TTO" feast-or-famine types, Carter's downside is greater. He's susceptible to slumps and, as a member of a bad Houston Astros lineup, suffers in terms of runs and RBI potential. AL-only owners will find value in his homers and walks, and he could be a handy stop-gap option even in shallow mixed leagues, but understand that he has at least one concern for every one of his positives.
2013 Statistics511702062721314.237.332.403.735
2014 Projections509672372651273.251.336.438.774
2014 Outlook: Since arriving in Washington, LaRoche has had a career year sandwiched between a pair of clunkers. Offseason surgery to clean loose bodies from his left elbow may be at least in part related to LaRoche having his home run per fly ball rate drop to one of its lowest levels of his career. LaRoche's contact rate didn't suffer, so assuming his power drop was induced by his elbow woes, there's a good chance of a bounce-back. The best part is it won't cost very much on draft day to test this theory.
2013 Statistics572621777501100.259.323.411.734
2014 Projections50259207546910.273.338.454.792
2014 Outlook: After spending his entire career in power-suppressing parks, Morneau must be licking his chops, since he'll play half his games a mile high. That said, it would behoove the new Rockie to reverse his recent trend of an increased groundball rate. Another concern is that Colorado has hinted that Morneau could lose some at-bats when a left-hander is on the hill, which makes sense, since his OPS versus southpaws the past three seasons is a paltry .520. A return to the 20-homer level is well within Morneau's grasp, just temper greater expectations despite the move to Coors Field.
2013 Statistics3343464532476.281.341.368.710
2014 Projections50255126853797.285.352.414.767
2014 Outlook: Alonso is more of a contact hitter than a power guy, and the fact he plays his home games as Petco Park -- despite its shrunken dimensions -- further mutes his home run potential. Injuries also limited him in 2013, casting some doubt upon his future potential. Now 26, Alonso needs to show a hint of pop if he's to elevate himself beyond NL-only corner-infield status or that of a matchup-play option -- he's a noted fastball hitter who hits righties better than lefties -- but at least he should get regular playing time at first base entering 2014.
2013 Statistics54954137544773.299.348.430.778
2014 Projections55457117243732.296.344.415.760
2014 Outlook: What is it about the Tampa Bay Rays and their facility for squeezing the best out of underpriced, defensively minded first basemen? From Carlos Pena to Casey Kotchman to now Loney, they've gotten a lot of value in the past half-decade, though they've since paid for it by locking Loney up to a three-year deal. He earned it, though you might prefer the more cautious approach to such a hefty fantasy investment, bearing in mind that Loney led the majors in line-drive rate (27.9 percent) while posting a BABIP (.326) 18 points higher than his career mark in 2013, things far more likely to regress than not in 2014. He also lacks the power most expect from a first baseman, making him more AL-only than mixed-league option in Rotisserie scoring.
2013 Statistics2933263638560.242.333.375.709
2014 Projections45252166053911.257.339.418.757
2014 Outlook: After falling short of expectations in Miami, Morrison was traded during the winter to the Seattle Mariners, who will provide him with a welcome fresh start. He's locked into a crowded first base/DH/corner outfield picture, and frequent injuries on his resume only add to his playing-time risk, but at least escaping Marlins Park should increase his statistical ceiling: He hit 12 of his 17 homers the past two seasons combined on the road, and slugged 98 points higher on the road (.439, compared to .341) during that span. AL-only owners should target Morrison as a value selection late, and with a strong spring, he could crack the mixed radar.
2013 Statistics462602360451170.232.299.437.736
2014 Projections519632366451201.258.317.453.769
2014 Outlook: The Texas Rangers' winter acquisition of Prince Fielder might have cast doubt upon Moreland's role, unfairly diminishing his perceived value in fantasy, as it's easy to forget that the team still has a wide-open designated hitter role and could be creative with Moreland's usage between first base and the outfield. He could yet approach regular at-bats, and he has enough power to warrant corner-infield consideration in deep mixed or AL-only leagues. Moreland's .255 BABIP shows that he could improve in terms of batting average in 2014, so regard him one of the better bargain candidates if he slips in the later rounds of those formats.
2013 Statistics525603486761891.219.320.442.762
2014 Projections446592975731761.224.334.453.787
2014 Outlook: Dunn is the epitome of the "three-true-outcomes" slugger, having either walked, struck out or hit a home run in almost exactly 50 percent of his career trips to the plate, that the highest such rate of anyone in baseball history (minimum 5,000 plate appearances). As he has aged, more of those outcomes have shifted into the strikeout column, as he has the second- (2011), fourth- (2012) and 29th-highest (2013) K rates of any hitter in a single season of 450-plus PAs, all of those comprising his past three seasons. Dunn is more of a specialty player, valuable in leagues that reward walks and on-base percentage, but more of a liability in Rotisserie leagues which weight batting average. And with the Chicago White Sox sporting a new first base/DH candidate in Jose Abreu, Dunn's at-bats are at greater risk now than they were a half-decade ago.
2013 Statistics31234132721870.215.270.381.651
2014 Projections459562159291220.257.308.440.748
2014 Outlook: San Francisco is hoping Morse fills its gaping hole in left field. In order to do so, he's going to need to cut down on the whiffs, as well as prove his wrist is at full strength after arthroscopic surgery in the offseason. Morse is a risky but tempting play in NL-only formats, since the cost to find out if he's 100 percent will be minimal and the power potential is there.
2013 Statistics602642380491140.277.336.449.785
2014 Projections35341155128700.280.338.462.799
2014 Outlook: Morales was a free agent as spring camps opened, teams hesitant to invest, knowing he would come at the cost of a draft pick. Don't take that as a knock on his fantasy value, as he would remain a clear mixed league asset should he land with a team with a wide-open first-base picture. Morales' contact rate has risen slightly the past two seasons, and in 2013, he improved by leaps and bounds as a right-handed hitter, batting .282/.353/.440 on that side. He is a lot more consistent than fantasy owners might be willing to give him credit for being, and remember, he has played the entirety of his career in parks that aren't great for power. In the right situation, he might be quite a midround value.