Complete 2015 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
31. Jean Segura, Mil SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics51361531287020.246.289.326.614
2015 Projections56868741308232.261.303.356.659
2015 Outlook: It is impossible to overlook the human factor when looking back at Segura's disappointing 2014 season. His play on the field was no doubt impacted by the tragic loss of his son during the season due to illness. That said, we still have to look into his performance on the field. In the first half of 2013, he hit .325/.363/.487 while spraying line drives all over the field with a .349 BABIP. Since the midpoint of 2013, however, Segura has hit .244/.283/.322 with a .278 BABIP. He does have 64 steals in 86 attempts in the past two seasons, providing value at a time when speed is becoming a more precious commodity in fantasy baseball. The real Segura lies somewhere between the early magic of 2013 and the tragic story we saw play out in 2014.
32. Scooter Gennett, Mil 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics4405595422676.289.320.434.754
2015 Projections531741257268612.284.318.422.740
2015 Outlook: Gennett was his perfect-world projection in 2014: a high-contact righty killer with a sprinkle of pop and speed. He isn't given very many opportunities against lefties, and with good reason -- he never really hit southpaws in the minors and has been a downright embarrassment against them in the majors (.291 OPS, albeit in a tiny 83-plate-appearance sample). He's an All-Star against righties, though, with a .323/.355/.490 with 15 homers and 75 RBI in 621 plate appearances. The best deployment of Gennett in fantasy follows the pattern of the opposing starters. In a weekly league, you should consider sitting him in any weeks when the Brewers are facing three or four lefties, while daily-transaction leagues can run a straight platoon and simply remove him against lefties.
33. Arismendy Alcantara, ChC 2B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics27831102917938.205.254.367.621
2015 Projections3965011412911315.242.295.404.699
2015 Outlook: Alcantara got ahead of some of his more highly touted prospect mates in the Cubs organization in 2014, getting the call to fill the void first at second base and later in center field. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to carry over his production from the minors in his first exposure to major league pitching. Strikeouts were the big culprit for Alcantara, as he whiffed a whopping 31 percent of the time. The bigger problem is that more help is on the way for the Cubs -- between Albert Almora, Javier Baez and Addison Russell, at least one or two guys are bound to be displaced, and Alcantara is likely to be one of them. Even if the Cubs send down Baez to cut down on his prodigious whiff rate, they still have Tommy La Stella available as a superior OBP option. It's silly to dismiss a player after a 70-game sample, but Alcantara will have to dramatically improve on last season's .205 batting average to reestablish a foothold in the Cubs' lineup.
34. Andrelton Simmons, Atl SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics5404474632604.244.286.331.617
2015 Projections62165115640667.256.301.367.668
2015 Outlook: If only defense were a category in standard scoring leagues. While Simmons is spectacular in the field, his offensive game has a ways to go. His 2014 season was so terrible that he finished below the likes of Derek Jeter and Josh Rutledge in the rankings. Simmons made a ton of contact in 2014 but did nothing with it. In 2013, he had the same struggles, but he at least hit 17 home runs and scored 76 runs to bring in some value. Last season, his BABIP was once again well below the league average, and his HR/FB rate took a step back rather than the expected step forward. He stole 54 bases in his minor league career but has just 11 in the majors, thanks in part to a career .297 OBP. Simmons has an equal chance of being a three-category player as he does of being a zero-category one.
35. Asdrubal Cabrera, TB SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics5537414614910810.241.307.387.694
2015 Projections5357012614710910.254.320.398.718
2015 Outlook: As the theory goes, players are supposed to have a big year in their final year before free agency. Even if the theory is mostly junk science (it is), Cabrera missed the memo, as his 2014 was painfully disappointing. He did not finish in the top 15 among shortstops despite a double-double season because his batting average suffered for a second consecutive season. In fact, his batting average has declined in each of the past six seasons, right along with his batting average on balls in play. It wasn't too long ago Cabrera toyed with a 20/20 campaign, but that one season was fueled by an abnormal HR/FB rate. Another double-double turnout is entirely possible for Cabrera, who settled for a one-year, $7.5 million deal with Tampa Bay, but so is yet another below-average batting line, unless he makes some changes at the plate.
36. Aaron Hill, Ari 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics50152106028924.244.287.367.654
2015 Projections48865156434825.270.321.436.758
2015 Outlook: Hill remains a maddening fantasy commodity, continuing a career-long trend that has seen his value shift wildly on a near-annual basis. Now 33 years old, injuries have cut into four of his past five seasons, including 29 games out of the lineup last year, and his production has been incredibly inconsistent. His OPS has leapt indiscriminately from the middle .600s to well into the .800s throughout his career, with seasons of stardom transitioning not so smoothly into seasons of struggle. His career average is a .752 OPS, which would be a significant improvement on his 2014 (.654), and it should probably be seen as his upside at this point, but Hill is an anomaly: It's seemingly all or nothing with him from season to season.
37. Brett Lawrie, Oak 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics25927123816490.247.301.421.722
2015 Projections49055145633848.259.315.396.711
2015 Outlook: Injuries once again limited Lawrie's contributions in 2014, as he played in just 70 games for the Blue Jays while back, hamstring and hand ailments put him on the disabled list at various points. When he was on the field, Lawrie put together a .247/.301/.421 line with 12 homers and 38 RBI -- putting him on pace for career bests in both categories. He also took advantage of the hitter-friendly confines of Rogers Centre, hitting .285/.321/.496 in Toronto compared to .213/.285/.353 on the road. The A's acquired Lawrie as part of a blockbuster deal with the Jays in late November, putting him in position to replace Josh Donaldson as their starting third baseman. The aforementioned home-road splits have been consistent throughout his time in the big leagues (career .815 home OPS vs. a .683 road OPS), so there may be reason to lower the ceiling for Lawrie with the move to Oakland. However, at age 25, Lawrie may not be a finished product, and it's reasonable to think that he may be able to provide double-digit homers and steals if he can avoid losing significant time to the disabled list.
38. Jed Lowrie, Hou SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics5025965051790.249.321.355.676
2015 Projections48362115347791.271.338.408.746
2015 Outlook: After belting a career-high 16 home runs in 96 games with Houston back in 2012, Lowrie struggled to find his power stroke in Oakland over the past two seasons. Last year with the A's, the 30-year-old shortstop hit .249/.321/.355 with only six homers and 50 RBI in 502 at-bats. Back with the Astros after signing a three-year deal in December, Lowrie's power should improve away from O.co Coliseum, but health is a concern, and his new offense isn't as talented as his surrounding cast was in Oakland. He's worth a last-round flier if you're thin in the middle infield.
39. Brandon Phillips, Cin 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics4624485123742.266.306.372.678
2015 Projections52562136828835.265.307.392.699
2015 Outlook: After four straight seasons of exactly 18 home runs, Phillips saw his HR/FB rate crater to 6.1 percent, and with it came his homer total. Even if you extrapolated his playing time to the 650 PA he has averaged the past eight seasons, he still would have had only 10 home runs. The volume of playing time drove Phillips' value for the two years prior to 2014, but a finger injury limited him to just 121 games. At 34 years old, the likelihood of a return to the 650-plus PA days no doubt shrinks substantially. Second basemen as a whole don't age all that well, so the waning skills plus the potential for more nicks and bruises cloud his outlook. Despite years of trade speculation, Phillips remains in Cincinnati and in a ballpark that can help him stave off some of the aging effects. Don't overpay for the name value.
40. Micah Johnson, CWS 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics----------------------
2015 Projections39740436317118.254.309.355.664
2015 Outlook: Johnson appears to have won a spring competition with Carlos Sanchez and Emilio Bonifacio to become Chicago's starting second baseman in 2015, and for fantasy purposes, Johnson is far and away the more appealing option. While Sanchez may have the defensive edge, Johnson, 24, has the speed to put up 25 to 35 steals if he can find his way to 500-plus plate appearances. Even if he wins the job, veterans like Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham, who will both be used in utility roles, could steal some starts at second base, but it seems like the White Sox want to award the starting job to one of the two youngsters to take advantage of the versatility of the veterans. Johnson's batting average probably won't be anything special and he won't hit for much power, but for someone who can be had at the very end of drafts, he could be a nice source of speed if he can hold on to the job at the keystone on the South Side.
41. J.J. Hardy*, Bal SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics52956952291040.268.309.372.682
2015 Projections48753135028831.257.298.384.682
2015 Outlook: Normally, when a batter's strikeout rate spikes like Hardy's did last year, it's because he's sacrificing contact for power. That did not happen for Hardy, as he hit just nine home runs all season, and his first one didn't come until June 21. It was his lowest homer total since 2010, when he was hampered by a wrist injury for most of the season. Hardy did struggle with a sore back at times last year, but that doesn't seem to be the primary factor in his disappearing power. The one solace is that Hardy's batting average was saved by a career-best .317 BABIP, so he didn't hurt fantasy owners by hitting .268, but he didn't help either. A fully healthy back and some HR-to-fly-ball rate normalization following last year's career-low 5.6 percent could bring him back to 15 or 20 homers, but he'll still only be a two-category player, as he doesn't steal many bases or score many runs.
42. Omar Infante, KC 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics5285066633689.252.295.337.632
2015 Projections5335695828639.266.301.377.678
2015 Outlook: Infante looked like a low-risk, low-upside pick for 2014 after four solid-if-unspectacular seasons. You were buying the solid batting average and hoping for double-digit power. He should've looked like a superstar to Royals fans who have been saddled with the worst second-base play in baseball over the past five seasons, but instead he came down to the level of his predecessors and posted his worst OBP since his rookie season in 2005. Infante's .275 BABIP was similarly a nine-year low and tanked his batting average by 66 points to .252 -- 22 points lower than any of the four prior seasons. He should bounce back a bit, but something in between his 2011 and 2012 output -- that is, an OPS in the low .700s -- is a more reasonable expectation.
43. Didi Gregorius, NYY SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics2703562722523.226.290.363.653
2015 Projections4646484240784.254.321.369.690
2015 Outlook: In his first season in pinstripes, Gregorius should be able to yank a few balls into the short porch at Yankee Stadium and perhaps Oriole Park at Camden Yards, as all of his power is pull power. That said, his greater fantasy value will be to the Yankees' pitchers. Gregorius and Brendan Ryan will form a platoon that is much sharper defensively than what the Yanks got out of Derek Jeter the past several years. The two of them should be able to change many hits from the past into outs, but Gregorius will remain a poor hitter whose fantasy value will depend upon how many balls he can yank into the right-field bleachers. He's a bottom-of-the-order hitter who doesn't have noteworthy speed or any standout skills with the bat.
44. Javier Baez, ChC SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics2132592015955.169.227.324.551
2015 Projections4265720653015710.228.282.418.700
2015 Outlook: With immense power comes tremendous holes in the swing. At 22 years old, Baez is a unique talent in that he has 80-grade power from a middle-infield position and is one of a small group of players who are legitimate threats to hit 35-plus homers. The problem is, his struggles to make contact are practically historic. In his rookie season, he struck out 42 percent of the time he came to the plate. Even Mark Reynolds in his worst season struck out "just" 35 percent of the time. Seven of Baez's nine home runs came in his first month; he hit .149/.239/.228 in September, showing no improvement with his contact abilities. Baez is all about counting-category potential, as his batting average carries extreme risks. In a best-case scenario, he's Mark Reynolds 2008, which would make him one of the most valuable players in the game. In the worst case, he struggles to replicate Mark Reynolds 2014, which would make him one of the worst. Either way, Baez will start his season with Triple-A Iowa, as the Cubs want him to work on his plate approach before getting consistent at-bats in the major leagues. While he'll likely be back with the big club before long, Baez will need to cut out some of the strikeouts if he wants to lock down an everyday role.
45. Jordy Mercer, Pit SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2014 Statistics50656125535894.255.305.387.693
2015 Projections50453115135925.260.312.391.703
2015 Outlook: Mercer saw 190 more plate appearances in 2014 than the year before, and he set a new career mark (short career though it's been) with 12 homers. However, his batting average fell 30 points to .255, largely due to a 45-point drop in BABIP that came from increased exposure to right-handed pitching. For his career, Mercer has hit .240 against righties over 758 plate appearances and .340 against lefties in 230 plate appearances. The lefty success is still a small sample size, but the struggles against righties are real. While another season of 550-plus plate appearances might help him hit double-digit home runs again, he can't be counted on to hit for average, and he could be in danger of losing playing time to new addition Jung-Ho Kang. Further, Mercer doesn't run and hits low in the order and, thus, is best left on the waiver wire in standard mixed leagues.