Complete 2016 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2016 SEASON STATS
31. Jung Ho Kang, Pit 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics42160155828995.287.355.461.816
2016 Projections494681666321146.279.347.443.791
2016 Outlook: Nobody was quite certain how Kang would hit major league pitching, but he exceeded most expectations with a strong rookie year while playing both spots on the left side of the infield. His season was prematurely ended when Chris Coghlan aggressively slid into Kang's leg trying to break up a double play as the Pirates were fighting for the NL Central banner. Kang walked enough and his strikeout rate was OK considering the drastic change of competition coming from overseas to the major leagues. He hits too many ground balls to forsee a spike to 20 homers; as it was, it took a 17 percent HR/FB ratio to get him to 15 homers last year. Enjoy the above-average bat that qualifies at two spots on draft day, particularly at shortstop, which is rather top-heavy in 2016.
32. Matt Duffy, SF 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics573771277309612.295.334.428.762
2016 Projections567741069359914.279.325.395.720
2016 Outlook: While Duffy doesn't provide the pop from the hot corner that many covet, he profiles as a batting average booster, relying on a solid contact rate in tandem with a high percentage of hard-hit balls. Unless he changes his batted ball distribution to put more in the air, his power will be capped to the high single digits with a low-teens ceiling. That said, Duffy is a very smart baserunner, exemplified by an excellent stolen base success rate, which bodes well for more running. Duffy is a player that can't be drafted blindly, but those in need of some batting average with a smattering of swipes could do worse than sliding him into corner or even third base.
33. Mark Teixeira, NYY 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics39257317959852.255.357.548.906
2016 Projections451673078621072.248.345.497.841
2016 Outlook: Well, it's about time to give up hope Teixeria will be the Triple Crown contender many thought he'd become when he was coming up through the Rangers farm system. Though, it was encouraging to see last year's power burst. Chances are he'll give some back, but if Teixeira can make a full recovery from last season's bone fracture, he'll enter the season healthy and in line to at least match 2014 in terms of playing time, with Greg Bird (shoulder) out for the year. It's interesting to note Teixeira hits better against the shift than when teams play it straight. The best approach with the veteran is to use him at corner and plan on good power when healthy, but be ready with an escape plan if he misses time (the most recent season in which he played 150-plus games was 2011).
34. Carlos Santana, Cle 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics55072198510812211.231.357.395.752
2016 Projections5527820781081217.246.370.418.789
2016 Outlook: Santana remains a remarkably consistent hitter, as he hit exactly .231, walked at least 100 times and clubbed at least 50 extra-base hits for the second straight season. Unfortunately, Santana also remains a consistent whiff machine, as he struck out 122 times in 2014 after striking out 124 times in 2015, and that places a hard ceiling on his batting average. The real problem for Santana owners is that he has lost his positional eligibility at both third base and catcher after exclusively playing first base and designated hitter in 2015. His warts were manageable at those weak positions, but his power is pedestrian by first base standards, unless he can turn some of his doubles and triples back into home runs in 2016.
35. Josh Harrison, Pit 3B, 2B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics41857428197110.287.327.390.717
2016 Projections523751051248316.287.327.432.759
2016 Outlook: Harrison couldn't live up to his excellent 2014, and even giving him a break for the torn thumb that cost him over a month doesn't really help because he was actually better after the injury. He just wasn't the hitter we saw in 2014. The .353 BABIP regressed as many expected, but it wasn't that substantial and definitely not the issue behind his drop-off. He lost a full 100 points off of his slugging percentage and his 3.4 percent HR/FB rate was 21st lowest among 211 batters to log at least 400 plate appearances. Some of that might've been bad luck, but he also pulled the ball a lot less and hit fewer fly balls. The Pirates are undaunted, clearing the path for Harrison to have a guaranteed spot with the trade of Neil Walker. It's a solid lineup and he should regularly be near the top of it.
36. Logan Forsythe*, TB 2B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics540691768551119.281.359.444.804
2016 Projections553701777551189.264.340.418.758
2016 Outlook: Opportunity knocked for Forsythe in 2015, not only the opportunity to play every day for the first time in his career, but also the chance to bat in the heart of a major league batting order. He answered the challenge in his age-28 season, finishing second on the Rays in home runs, runs, and RBI (behind Evan Longoria in all three categories), with a final line good enough to rank him 10th among all second basemen in earned 5x5 rotisserie value. His 8.9 percent walk rate was a career best, and the uptick in power did not come at the expense of contact as he maintained an above-average contact rate of 83.4 percent, a mark right around his career average. He also swiped nine bases in total, but was only 2-for-4 on the basepaths in the second half and it's hard to imagine he will get the green light to run more often this year. A dip in the power department could return him closer to fringe mixed-league status, but Forsythe has the second base job to himself and the projected lineup spot is fruitful for counting stats.
37. Mike Moustakas*, KC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics54973228243761.284.348.470.817
2016 Projections55072207642821.267.328.436.764
2016 Outlook: The 27-year-old enjoyed a breakout season for the World Series champs, establishing a slew of personal bests along the way. He broke the 20-homer barrier for the first time since 2012, with a career-high 22 homers while also tallying high-water marks in runs scored (73), hits (156), RBI (82), walks (43), average (.284), OBP (.348), slugging (.470) and OPS (.818). He also played at least 140 games for the third time in the last four campaigns, and encouragingly boosted his batting average against both lefties and righties. The most drastic boost came against southpaws, with Moustakas improving his average over 100 points, to .282. His average against righties shot up over 60 points in its own right, to .286, and the overall improvement was also evident in his outstanding 86 percent contact rate and his reduction (for the fourth consecutive season) in strikeout rate, down to 12.4 percent in 2015.
38. Mark Trumbo, Bal OF, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics508622264361320.262.310.449.759
2016 Projections502652571391302.257.309.460.769
2016 Outlook: Trumbo changed teams for the third time in less than two years when the Mariners traded him to the Orioles in December. That came on the heels of a .284/.343/.472 second half for Trumbo, who matched his home run output from the first half (11 homers) in 50 fewer at-bats after the All-Star break. Now he goes from one of the toughest environments for hitters in baseball to one of the most favorable with the trade to Baltimore and can focus almost exclusively on hitting with the DH spot pretty much all to himself. Of course, Trumbo comes with his caveats. He makes contact just over 70 percent of the time, doesn't walk much, and is prone to some brutal dry spells. A return to the 30-homer levels from 2012-13 is not out of the question, but it's wiser to bet on closer to 20 homers, given his limitations. And keep in mind Trumbo gets dinged a bit in OBP leagues.
39. Stephen Vogt, Oak C, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics44558187156970.261.341.443.783
2016 Projections42748146446820.265.333.426.760
2016 Outlook: Vogt rewarded owners who bought into his 2014 numbers in limited playing time by easily returning a top-10 season at the position last year. The bar to clear to be a top-10 fantasy catcher obviously isn't very high these days, and that makes Vogt all the more appealing. Josh Phegley could cut a little more into Vogt's playing time this year, as Phegley grades out as a better defensive option while offering similar power, but Vogt had the fifth best OBP (.341) among starting catchers last year, so he will still be the primary option. He also played 25 games at first base last year, and with Yonder Alonso (career .732 OPS) slotted to be the starter there this season, Vogt should continue to get occasional starts even when he's not behind the dish in 2016. He had offseason elbow surgery, but that procedure is not expected to affect his availability for spring training.
40. Justin Bour, Mia 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics409422373341010.262.321.479.800
2016 Projections500722386431021.258.318.444.762
2016 Outlook: First base can thin out rather quickly, and for those who are unable to secure a proven producer at the position, Bour makes for a logical target in the later rounds of mixed-league drafts. There are a couple of things prospective owners absolutely must be aware of, though: His struggles against left-handed pitching and below-average contact skills. The 27-year-old managed just a .221 average with 22 strikeouts in 68 at-bats against lefties last year, with none of his 23 homers coming against same-handed pitching. His 75 percent contact rate makes a repeat of his modest .262 average from a year ago an uncertainty, and though he does pack a power punch against right-handers, his HR/FB rate seems likely to fall from its near-elite level (21.5 percent) if for no other reason than he plays half of his games in Marlins Park. Offseason addition Chris Johnson may very well play whenever a lefty is on the mound for the opposition, and Derek Dietrich has enough power to be an option at first if Bour slips up.
41. Nick Castellanos, Det 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics549421573391520.255.303.419.721
2016 Projections556641874421381.270.320.441.761
2016 Outlook: The jury remains out on the former top prospect entering his age-24 season. Castellanos' first couple seasons at the major league level have yielded below-replacement-level results, but he made some improvements down the stretch last year that lend hope to a leap forward in 2016. By laying off more pitches out of the zone and swinging less often in general, Castellanos improved his contact rate while adding power. He hit nine home runs after the All-Star break last year, three more than he had in the first half in 61 fewer plate appearances. Castellanos could still stand to be more patient at the plate, but if he can maintain his adjustments from last year, the home run total and batting average could improve considerably. Even a modest improvement could push Castellanos near the top-12 among third baseman. Simply put, there's plenty of reason to buy in on Castellanos at his current cost.
42. Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics34643167333791.249.308.465.773
2016 Projections41758187042942.273.335.480.815
2016 Outlook: Limited throughout most of 2015 by a bout of plantar fasciitis, Zimmerman posted a career-worst .773 OPS in 95 games last season with his on-base percentage falling off a cliff to .308. He also missed time late due to an oblique injury, but between stints on the shelf, Zimmerman showed that he can still produce at a high level when his body is right. From July 28 to Sept. 7, over a span of 40 games, Zimmerman hit .311 (42-for-135) with 11 homers and 39 RBI. Of course, that kind of per-game production cannot be extrapolated over a full season, especially with a player like Zimmerman who has averaged 110 games over the last five seasons. But at 31, Zimmerman still has the plate skills -- despite the dip in OBP, he maintained a respectable walk rate last season -- and power to be a valuable contributor at first base.
43. Wil Myers, SD OF, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics2254082927555.253.336.427.763
2016 Projections4937418695913411.254.333.422.755
2016 Outlook: Minor-league studs that strike out a lot but mask that with a very high BABIP often take longer to reach their potential, if they do it at all. Myers fits that description with the jury still out on whether his career arc is more Brandon Belt or Jay Bruce. At least so far in his MLB career, Myers continues to fan at an accelerated rate while his BABIP is considerably lower than it was at the minor league level. His groundball mark is also not conducive to power, which is unfortunate, as he's flashed an HR/FB above league average. As presently constituted, the Padres can play Myers at first or the outfield; at worst case as the strong side of a platoon. His dual eligibility makes him a little more interesting -- there's just too many warts to make him a target without a backup plan in place.
44. Pedro Alvarez, Bal 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics437602777481312.243.318.469.787
2016 Projections490672881461454.253.319.471.791
2016 Outlook: Alvarez has entered Mark Reynolds territory as a three-true-outcomes player at the plate who is brutal in the field, and that reputation limited his employment opportunities this offseason. He finally found a home in Baltimore two weeks into spring training, and is likely to serve as the primary designated hitter for the Orioles, pushing Mark Trumbo to right field. The 29-year-old Alvarez has plenty of power, but also has large holes in his swing, and is downright terrible against lefties for his career (.203/.270/.332). If platooned properly, he could easily hit 20 homers with a higher batting average. Itís a good thing if he only sees 450-475 at bats in 2016, because if the average does indeed improve, that makes the power more rosterable.
45. Danny Valencia, Oak 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics34559186629802.290.345.519.864
2016 Projections45561197931992.275.320.473.792
2016 Outlook: The 31-year-old third baseman had a career year in 2015 splitting time between Toronto and Oakland. Long thought of as a platoon player who crushed southpaws, Valencia will have a chance to prove he is worthy of playing every day for the A's this season. He significantly upped his groundball rate to 52.4 percent after failing to top 45 percent in any of the previous three seasons, so the batting average gains could be real. However, it seems pretty obvious that his increased power numbers are unsustainable after posting a 22.2 percent HR/FB, which was more than double his career mark of 10.8 percent. The nice thing about Valencia is he will still come cheap in drafts, and simply batting in the middle of the A's lineup should allow him to offer up respectable production from a corner infield spot.