Complete 2016 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | 2B/SS | 1B/3B | OF | SP | RP
2015 Statistics62810128776114812.236.307.444.751
2016 Projections61110425826913818.249.329.445.774
2016 Outlook: Dozier picked up right where he left off in 2014, delivering a .256/.328/.513 line with 19 home runs and nine steals through the first half. Although he was sent for an MRI on his hip after the regular season concluded, no structural damage was found and he avoided surgery. If nothing else, the MRI suggests that he wasn't 100 percent healthy during the second half, which may explain the 107-point drop in increased strikeout rate (ISO) and reduced activity on the basepaths (3-for-4 in stolen-base attempts) after the All-Star break. Dozier should spend another season at or near the top of the batting order, but his placement may ultimately hinge on the Twins' 2016 plans for Byron Buxton. A return to the 20-20 club is seemingly within reach, but Dozier is a career .240 hitter with a very high infield flyball rate, which makes significant improvement in that particular category a long shot.
2015 Statistics5511011672379828.307.361.477.838
2016 Projections5579214683711024.289.340.440.780
2016 Outlook: A 2015 roto darling, Cain posted career highs in every relevant offensive category, and perhaps most important of all, he set a career high with 140 games played. Cain legitimately has a plus-plus hit tool, and should be able to maintain an average around .300, thanks to a career .345 BABIP. He had an 82 percent success rate on the bases last year, so there is little doubt that he will remain a threat to run under manager Ned Yost, despite hitting third in the order. With average and speed locked in as a foundation for his value, his power must fairly come under scrutiny. Cain's 11.2% HR/FB last season exceeded his 2013 (4.4%) and 2014 (5.3%) rates combined, and while it is reasonable to grant him an uptick in power in the middle of his career, slight regression seems likely. Even so, Cain offers five-category production heading into his age-30 season, and makes for a safe bet as an OF2 in mixed leagues.
2015 Statistics571762890621070.275.350.480.830
2016 Projections575802898591060.290.357.499.856
2016 Outlook: Gonzalez is like that reliable pair of boots that won't fetch many compliments, but will keep the wearer comfortable while protecting against the elements. Once the six or seven flashy names at the position are off the board, Gonzalez represents about as reliable an option as can be found at any position. In three full seasons with the Dodgers, he has always hit 22-plus homers, with 90-plus RBI and at least a .275 average. Unfortunately, he has only scored 80-plus runs once in L.A., in part because the back half of the lineup has been oddly shaky for much of his tenure. That said, he's an extremely reliable contributor in the three categories that a first baseman needs to be able to prop up. Adding to his reliability is the incredibly impressive fact that he has played 156-plus games in 10 straight seasons. A full season of Corey Seager and Justin Turner hitting ahead of him could help Gonzalez get back over 100 RBI for the eighth time in the last 10 years.
2015 Statistics554874097461332.271.325.540.864
2016 Projections556853293461383.273.327.507.834
2016 Outlook: Gonzalez was hitting .215 with two home runs on June 2 last year, and he went on to hit .294 with 36 home runs and 84 RBI over his final 107 games. The Gonzalez owners who did not sell their shares amid his early season struggles were rewarded with the most home runs of his career, thanks in large part to a career-high 153 games played. Needless to say, his age-29 season was an unexpected time for Gonzalez to all of a sudden stay relatively healthy, after averaging just 110.5 games per year over the previous four seasons. The left-handed slugger has always fared better against righties (.931 OPS) than lefties (.745 OPS) over his career, but he was especially bad against southpaws in 2015, slashing .195/.222/.308 in 168 plate appearances. If that downward trend carries over to 2016, Colorado's improved outfield depth will likely lead to him getting more days off against lefties, which would lead to a higher average and slightly fewer counting stats.
2015 Statistics54052.188023612.410.7813.76
2016 Projections66065.0149844502.220.9113.57
2016 Outlook: Jansen's 2015 debut was delayed by a foot injury, but he did not miss a beat upon returning from the disabled list in mid-May. The absence limited him to just 54 appearances -- his lowest total since 2011 -- while he still managed to pile up 36 saves in 38 opportunities. Skills wise, Jansen improved his walk rate for the fifth consecutive seasons to a career-low 4.0 BB%, while he continues to miss bats at an elite clip (40.0 K% in 2015, career 39.4 percent). With a hard cutter that hitters rarely square up, Jansen only occasionally leans on his slider as a second offering. In an era where extremely dominant relievers are seemingly more common, Jansen is among the best in the league, and he should be one of the safest closers to invest in on draft day given his outstanding peripherals and a stranglehold on the ninth-inning role for the Dodgers.
2015 Statistics61378239864880.305.378.463.841
2016 Projections60083239667940.292.370.458.828
2016 Outlook: Last year Fielder was one of only three first-base eligible players to hit over .300 with 20-plus homers, 75-plus runs and 80-plus RBI. The other two were Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto. Unfortunately, Fielder was not playing much first base, getting 139 of his 157 starts at DH, which eliminates his first-base eligibility in most formats. Additionally, his walk rate dipped to 9.2% -- his lowest such rate in nine years -- and his .323 BABIP was the highest since his rookie season. The good news is he re-established himself as one of the most durable players in the game, and when Fielder stays healthy there are few players more reliable in the four non-speed categories. Even as a player who will be locked into the UTIL spot all season, the 31-year-old slugger makes for an excellent offensive anchor who can be had at a slight discount, relative to his skills, now that he carries the unwieldy DH tag.
2015 Statistics3333232.05121620002.481.028.38
2016 Projections3333225.05219716002.961.137.88
2016 Outlook: While Keuchel doesn't overpower hitters with his fastball, his sinker, which he threw over 50 percent of the time last year, is a ground ball machine, and his slider and changeup are both plus pitches that miss bats. Throw in elite command and you're left with an ace. Among qualified starters, his 2.48 ERA and 2.75 xFIP both ranked fifth, while his 1.02 WHIP was tied for seventh. This is important, because his 23.7% K-rate ranked 23rd, behind the likes of Jason Hammel and Ian Kennedy. Keuchel can certainly be targeted in drafts as an SP1, but prospective owners will need to be aware of the fact that they will need to make up some strikeouts elsewhere. He may have just had his career year, but he will go at least a round later than another starter with similar peripheral numbers (Zack Greinke) who is also coming off a career year, making Keuchel the best value among aces who can't be counted on for a strikeout per inning.
2015 Statistics3030183.24321614003.631.0710.58
2016 Projections3131202.05022516003.161.1010.02
2016 Outlook: Carrasco's 29.6 percent K-rate last year was fourth among qualified starters behind only Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer, so strikeout fiends will be drawn to the 6-foot-3 righty like moths to a flame. He uses a 96 MPH heater with late life to set up his slider, curve and changeup, all of which generated whiffs 19-29 percent of the time last season. With four pitches that can be plus or better, it's no surprise that he led the majors by a large margin with a 40.1 O-Swing% (Jacob deGrom was second at 36.5 percent). Despite turning 29 in March, Carrasco is just now coming into his own as a dominant big league starter. He's like Bran Stark in Game of Thrones, slowly learning how to use his otherworldly gifts, before eventually taking complete control of his realm. In Carrasco's case, that realm is the duel between pitcher and hitter. If he can stay healthy and hone his sequencing, Carrasco has as much upside as any starter not named Kershaw.
2015 Statistics56783188341651.287.334.453.788
2016 Projections54385218642671.302.353.486.839
2016 Outlook: A slow start to the season left many owners wondering if Beltre was simply out of gas in his age-36 campaign, and he limped into the All-Star break with a .255/.290/.396 line to go with seven homers and 24 RBI. Thanks to a huge second half, many of those concerns were erased, as his .318/.367/.509 line after the break included 11 homers and 61 RBI -- numbers more in line with his previous levels of output for the Rangers. Further, it was revealed that an injury initially labeled as a jammed thumb in May was actually a torn ligament that he managed to play through until he had surgery in October. A back strain limited Beltre in the Rangers' ALDS series against Toronto, but it's expected that he will be fully recovered from both injuries at the outset of spring training. At this stage of his career, Beltre is much more likely to hit 20 homers than 30, but he drive in plenty of runs given the quality of the bats around him. Further, he should continue to hit for a good average as he rarely makes soft contact, while maintaining a very low strikeout rate.
2015 Statistics69067.12078817180.940.7910.43
2016 Projections65070.0248044202.061.0610.29
2016 Outlook: Davis has been one of the most effective relievers in the game since transitioning to the bullpen, but up until late last season, he was limited mostly to setup duty for Kansas City. All-Star Greg Holland was all that was blocking his path to mixed-league superstardom, and with Holland out of the way entirely entering 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Davis is now locked in as one of the top closer options on the board. Using a cutter and a curveball to complement his mid-90s fastball, Davis struck out more than 31 percent of the batters he faced, though his strikeout rate was down significantly from the 39.1 percent mark he posted in 2014. The right-hander improved his control, but his walk rate remained only average at eight percent. Some may point to these numbers and his 92.2 percent strand rate from last year and scream "regression!" But opponents made hard contact less than 18 percent of the time against Davis, and the home park and team context are about as favorable as it gets for a closer.
2015 Statistics3434212.06625212003.231.1410.70
2016 Projections3232206.06023116003.151.1410.09
2016 Outlook: The 27-year-old righty emerged as one of the premier bat missers in all of baseball last season, thanks to a mid-90s fastball and a devastating slider that is one of the best breaking balls in the game. Archer's 252 strikeouts ranked fourth, behind only Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. The only thing keeping Archer from solidifying himself as a top-10 fantasy starter is his 7.6% walk rate, which ranked in the bottom 40 percent among qualified starters, while his 29 percent K-rate was the fifth best. The walks make it hard to envision him posting an elite sub-1.00 WHIP anytime soon, while also making a sub-3.00 ERA seem like a far off dream. That said, his 2.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 121.2 innings in the first half last year offer a glimpse of what is possible when he is at his very best.
2015 Statistics486771770381141.280.337.440.777
2016 Projections513862784531171.281.352.493.845
2016 Outlook: For the first time in 2016, Tulowitzki is not going to be taken by anyone in the top 20 in a fantasy draft. It has happened year after year despite the fact Tulo hasn't played more than 150 games since the 2009 season and has had one injury issue after another since. Last season, the inevitable happened as he was dealt away from Coors and went to Toronto, where he put up a very disappointing .239/.317/.380 line over 41 games and there too suffered an injury. Like all Rockies hitters, Tulo was amazing at home, but his career .274/.347/.462 slash line away from Coors is nothing to ignore. The shortstop position is not terribly deep in 2016 with youth (Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager) making up most of the higher rankings. If he hits at the top of the lineup and can stay healthy in front of the Blue Jay bombers, then he could score plenty of runs, but health does not generally get better with age.
2015 Statistics546742782241023.269.308.474.782
2016 Projections638822792261254.276.313.462.775
2016 Outlook: In 2015 we saw what a down year from Jones looks like, and he was still one of eight outfielders with 27-plus homers and an average of .265 or better. He missed time at the end of the year with back spasms, and also missed time with shoulder, neck and ankle injuries earlier in the year, although he never landed on the DL. Still, the combination of those four ailments likely contributed to his suppressed numbers. His days as a threat for double-digit steals appear to be behind him, but there still seems to be a nice floor in the power and average categories heading into his age-30 season. If he can return to his pre-2015 durability, his runs and RBI should rebound, especially with Chris Davis back in the fold. While Jones was once a source of debate as a top-20 pick, he will now go in the fifth round of many drafts, which finally gives prospective owners a chance to profit on his top trait -- consistency.
2015 Statistics613847813210110.320.355.421.776
2016 Projections6208517794411510.290.340.435.776
2016 Outlook: The Aruban shortstop displayed his plus hit tool and plus glove work last season, putting an end to the talk of a potential move to third base. He took advantage of hitting third for most of the season, and with the help of a slightly inflated batting average (.372 BABIP last season, .338 for his career), he was able to finish top-two in runs and RBI at the position. Bogaerts should remain in the three-hole for Boston in 2016, and while he may not hit .320 again, modest regression would allow him to still challenge for .300. His 10 steals may not sound like much, but it gives him an edge over players like Troy Tulowitzki, Brandon Crawford and Jhonny Peralta. The elephant in the room is Bogaerts' power projection. Scouting reports have always suggested he could hit 20-30 homers in his prime, and while he is just entering his age-23 season, his in-game power could start to click at any moment, which would make him a five-category monster.
2015 Statistics61059.1228743902.581.0413.20
2016 Projections66065.0249144302.221.0612.60
2016 Outlook: At first glance, it may appear as though Kimbrel's one-year stop in San Diego marks the beginning of a gradual decline. After all, his 2.58 ERA was the highest mark he's posted over six big league seasons. Upon further review, he doesn't seem to be in decline at all, as he finished the season on a high note by delivering a 39:8 K:BB and 1.73 ERA over 26 innings after the All-Star break. With two years and a team option for 2018 left on his contract, the Padres decided that Kimbrel was a luxury they did not need. Traded to Boston for Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra in November, Kimbrel will close for the Red Sox in 2016 as he continues to build the foundation of a resume that should garner consideration for Cooperstown someday. Since arriving in the big leagues in 2010, Kimbrel has struck out 41.2 percent of the batters he's faced. He's also managed to increase the average velocity on his fastball every year he's been in the big leagues, topping out at 97.3 MPH last season.