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Complete 2013 Projections

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ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

16. CC Sabathia, NYY SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		28	28	200.0	44	197	15	0	0	3.38	1.14	8.87		395.5
	2013 Projections		31	31	223.0	58	213	17	0	0	3.39	1.19	8.60		427.5
2013 Outlook: Sabathia is a horse; he has logged a major-league-leading 1,244 innings, playoffs included, the past five seasons combined. And as the Yankees' ace, he's one of the precious few pitchers you can bank upon for wins. Don't let that overshadow his other skills, however, as from 2006-12, he has kept his annual ERAs between 2.70 and 3.38 and WHIPs between 1.11 and 1.23, and he has tallied at least 197 strikeouts in six of those seven years. The question with Sabathia is hardly skills or run support, but rather whether all those innings might eventually come back to haunt him. He made two trips to the DL in 2012, first for a groin issue in June and then for an elbow injury in August, the latter the more troubling one for a pitcher with the mileage he has accrued. Those probably aren't enough to flash alert signs, but Sabathia's health bears closer watch the older he gets. He can serve as your fantasy ace, but understand that with each passing year, the prospect of an extended absence is probably going to increase.

17. Chris Sale, CWS SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		30	29	192.0	51	192	17	0	0	3.05	1.14	9.00		399
	2013 Projections		31	31	195.0	58	203	15	0	0	3.37	1.14	9.37		392.5
2013 Outlook: Sale enjoyed one of the most unexpected breakthroughs of 2012, a feat all the more impressive if you consider that during a 12-day span in early May, he went from starter to closer back to starter. Following his return to the rotation, he posted a 1.85 ERA in a 10-start stretch, en route to the 13th-best season by any starting pitcher as judged by our Player Rater. Sale's arsenal seemed suitable to starting: His fastball still averaged 91.7 mph and could touch 97, his slider remained as filthy as ever, and he leaned more on his changeup to handle the larger share of right-handed hitters he faced. It's that skill set which presents him an excellent chance at a repeat; it's the elbow injury that facilitated the aforementioned May move to the closer's role, as well as the 121-inning bump in workload, that represents the risks of regression. To the latter point, he had a 4.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 14 second-half start, hinting at fatigue. Sale's future is bright, but is that more his immediate or long-term future? He'll cost you an early pick, and on a per-game basis, especially early in the season, he's worth it. But don't pick him assuming there's no downside.

18. Johnny Cueto*, Cin SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	217.0	49	170	19	0	0	2.78	1.17	7.05		437
	2013 Projections		34	34	213.0	55	169	18	0	0	3.00	1.18	7.14		421.5
2013 Outlook: Two improvements have vaulted Cueto into the upper tiers of the starting pitching ranks: One is his continually dropping walk rate; his walks-per-nine rate has dropped in each of his five big-league seasons, his 2.03 number last year was 15th out of 88 ERA qualifiers. The other is increased stamina; his innings per start has risen every year, and his 6.58 number in the category ranked him 14th in the majors in 2012. He has finally arrived as a leading man for NL-only owners, and No. 2 option for those in mixed, despite having to call a hitter-friendly ballpark his home. There's no need for matchups-seeking here; Cueto is 16-for-24 in quality starts with 14 wins, a 2.21 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 24 games at Great American Ball Park the past two seasons combined. He also had 25 quality starts on the road during that span, third-best in baseball, with a 2.86 ERA, meaning he's no worry there, either. If you didn't begin to last season, it's time to believe in him as one of the game's best.

19. Mat Latos, Cin SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	209.1	64	185	14	0	0	3.48	1.16	7.95		389.5
	2013 Projections		33	33	206.0	65	196	15	0	0	3.32	1.19	8.56		395
2013 Outlook: It took Latos a little while to adjust to working in the cozy confines of the Great American Ballpark as opposed to the spacious Petco Park. However, he made the necessary alterations, primarily inducing more ground balls, and is back on course as one of the brightest young arms in the league. There's room for even more improvement if Latos can continue to burn more worms. It will be interesting to see if the Reds take the reins off a little and allow Latos to get deeper into games. His innings have increased steadily from 184 2/3 in 2010, then 194 1/3 and 209 1/3 last season, his first with the Reds. Latos is a great target for those who like to wait a little on pitching. He's young, durable and still maturing.

20. Aroldis Chapman, Cin SP, RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		68	0	71.2	23	122	5	38	6	1.51	0.81	15.32		390
	2013 Projections		67	0	70.0	36	104	6	37	0	2.57	1.14	13.37		331
2013 Outlook: We've already seen what Chapman the closer is capable of: He's as good a pick as anyone at the position not named Craig Kimbrel. That's why, questionable as the decision is from a pure baseball perspective, the Reds' late-spring decision to return Champan to the closer's role, after so much early-spring chatter that he might start, makes sense. Let's summarize Chapman's repertoire: His fastball averaged 97.7 mph in 2012, second-highest among relief qualifiers; and he has a plus slider that helps him pile up the strikeouts. This was a decision that should instill more comfort in his drafting owners; we've already seen him succeed. He'd have been an early-round pick as either starter or reliever, but there's no doubt he's a top-70 overall player, and top-three-closer, now that his 2013 role is clear.

21. Zack Greinke, LAD SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		34	34	212.1	54	200	15	0	0	3.48	1.20	8.48		399
	2013 Projections		31	31	196.0	50	192	14	0	0	3.63	1.19	8.82		363
2013 Outlook: For the third straight season, Greinke's ERA was worse than his FIP and xFIP, calling into question if this is continued bad luck or something more. Since he was able to reverse this in his magical 2009 campaign, the odds are Greinke has been mostly snake bit since. A return to the National League should help boost his strikeouts, which took a dip with the Angels. Greinke is consistent, durable and in his prime. He has all the credentials of a fantasy ace. Roster him with confidence.

22. Jonathan Papelbon, Phi RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		70	0	70.0	18	92	5	38	0	2.44	1.06	11.83		332
	2013 Projections		67	0	68.0	20	85	5	39	0	3.04	1.09	11.25		321.5
2013 Outlook: Though it was only slight, Papelbon's base skills were a tick worse in his first season with Philadelphia as compared to his final campaign in Boston. There is no reason not to expect a repeat this time around, but beware as he was a bit fortunate with LOB% so his ERA is due a correction. Still, with a strikeout rate that has been in double digits since 2007 and good control, Papelbon is one of a handful of closers who can be relied upon to deliver the goods year after year.

23. Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	195.2	43	153	12	0	0	2.94	1.17	7.04		386.5
	2013 Projections		33	33	205.0	42	165	16	0	0	3.25	1.15	7.24		401.5
2013 Outlook: Though his ERA dropped by a near-quarter run, Zimmermann's second full season following Tommy John surgery was roughly the equivalent of his first. The primary difference was a larger workload; he amassed 195 2/3 innings following 161 1/3 in 2011. Zimmermann did, however, look the part of a fantasy ace for four months, 19 of his first 21 games resulting in quality starts with a 2.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Could it be that he merely tired late in the year, his first as a full-time starter? Perhaps, and his drafting owners will be banking upon that chance that he'll be more up to the task in 2013. Even as a No. 2 or 3 starter in a rotisserie league, though, Zimmermann's combination of elite control (1.98 walks per nine in 2012, 11th-best) and command (3.56 K's per walk, 22nd) makes him a low-risk choice.

24. Kris Medlen, Atl SP, RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		50	12	138.0	23	120	10	1	7	1.57	0.91	7.83		360
	2013 Projections		30	30	185.0	40	160	11	0	0	3.02	1.12	7.78		375
2013 Outlook: Would you believe that Kris Medlen, not Stephen Strasburg, was the highest-ranked pitcher on the 2012 Player Rater among those enjoying their first full big-league seasons coming off Tommy John surgery? Medlen posted a 2.48 ERA in 38 relief appearances before transitioning to the Braves' rotation in July, where he managed an unheard-of 0.97 ERA in 12 turns plus 10 consecutive quality starts to conclude the year (if you count the wild-card game). He flashed all the skills you'd want from a fantasy starter: A 5.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio that ranked third-best among pitchers with 100-plus innings, a 53.6 percent ground-ball rate that ranked 16th among pitchers to face 500 or more batters, and a split of only 20 points in OPS between right- and left-handed hitters. Medlen's success is sustainable, but some regression in his ratios (ERA/WHIP) is inevitable. It's actually not the fear that his ERA might balloon to 4-plus that's responsible for his "low" ranking; it's that he has never pitched more than the 138 innings that he did in 2012 previously as a pro. Is he ready to handle the chores of a full-time workhorse? Maybe, but be cautious not to assume it.

25. Matt Moore, TB SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		31	31	177.1	81	175	11	0	0	3.81	1.35	8.88		272.5
	2013 Projections		33	33	201.0	78	208	15	0	0	3.45	1.25	9.31		380
2013 Outlook: Every young starting pitcher hits an adjustment period at the big-league level. What if Moore's was the first half of his rookie 2012? Ranked Keith Law's No. 3 prospect in the game entering the year, Moore disappointed early, his ERA 4.42 and WHIP 1.46 in 17 first-half starts. But he picked up the pace thereafter, posting a 3.01 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 14 second-half turns while generating a higher rate of swings and misses and lower rate of hard contact allowed. Moore might not have been the kind of strikeout artist he was during his minor league career, when he averaged 12.67 K's per nine, but what if he's capable of as many as 10 per nine? Now 23 years old, he's a pitcher with a bright career ahead, and 2013 might be the time he finally breaks through. You won't need to pay the price of a top-10 starter, but among those slightly outside it, his chances of breaking into that class are among the best.

26. James Shields, KC SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	227.2	58	223	15	0	0	3.52	1.17	8.82		420.5
	2013 Projections		33	33	225.0	59	216	14	0	0	3.60	1.21	8.64		397
2013 Outlook: For the past three seasons. Shields' strikeout and walk rates have been quite consistent. However, wildly fluctuating hit and home run rates have resulted in ERAs ranging from an unsightly (and unlucky) 5.18 in 2010 to a sparkling (and lucky) 2.82 in 2011. Last season, Shields' 3.52 mark was right on target. Now in Kansas City, Shields can be expected to exhibit similar strikeout and walk rates, but his ERA is likely to go up a bit as Tropicana Field is quietly a pitcher's park while Kaufmann Stadium plays neutral. While Shields is not a fantasy ace, his consistency and durability places him firmly in the tier below the elite.

27. Yovani Gallardo, Mil SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	204.0	81	204	16	0	0	3.66	1.30	9.00		371
	2013 Projections		33	33	202.0	71	206	16	0	0	3.74	1.27	9.18		367
2013 Outlook: Though Gallardo hasn't yet developed into the Cy Young candidate many scouts projected when he led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2006, he has settled in nicely as a member of the next tier. In the past three seasons combined, he has the fourth-highest strikeouts per nine (9.22) and ranks 10th in quality starts (65), his ERA (3.67) and WHIP (1.29) during that time the primary things holding him back. Only 27 years old, Gallardo still has time (and enough career) to take another step, but in order to do so he'll need to clean up some of his rough edges: His career rates of walks (3.48 per nine) and home runs (0.95) per nine innings remain somewhat high, and his 4.99 first-inning ERA hints that he needs considerable time to hit his groove. Gallardo might yet do it, but is it worth picking him sooner than this after several years of remarkably similar numbers?

28. Max Scherzer, Det SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		32	32	187.2	60	231	16	0	0	3.74	1.27	11.08		361.5
	2013 Projections		32	32	197.0	59	207	16	0	0	3.79	1.20	9.46		370.5
2013 Outlook: Scherzer's arrow is pointing upward in the strikeout department; are his other fantasy stats ready to follow? Both his average fastball velocity and his strikeout-to-walk ratio have improved in each of the past two seasons, culminating in a 2012 in which he led the league in K's per nine innings (11.08) and overall strikeout rate (29.4 percent of total batters faced). Thanks to that, from July 1 through the end of the postseason, Scherzer managed a 2.51 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 19 starts, numbers that, coupled with his strikeout potential, would place him among the game's elite. Scherzer does have a lengthy enough track record of inconsistency -- he has made 133 career starts -- that it's a bit of a leap to project him as one of fantasy's best in 2013. But he's at worst a 200-strikeout pitcher you can spot out facing his stiffest matchups, and that's not a bad thing to be.

29. Rafael Soriano, Wsh RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		69	0	67.2	24	69	2	42	4	2.26	1.17	9.18		340.5
	2013 Projections		60	0	56.0	19	61	4	37	0	2.89	1.14	9.80		285.5
2013 Outlook: In one of the more surprising transactions of the winter, Soriano signed a two-year, $28-million deal with the Washington Nationals, who, last we saw them, had absorbed a most painful blown save by Drew Storen en route to a Division Series ouster. Soriano takes over Storen's role as the team's primary finisher, a gig in which he posted 40-save, sub-2.50-ERA campaigns in both 2010 and 2012, and his prospects for a third such campaign in a four-year span are good, thanks to his newfound contract security as well as escaping the hitting-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. To the latter point, he had a 1.62 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in road games during his two-year stint with the Yankees, his lack of a truly dominating pitch to use against lefties hurting him at home: He had a 4.31 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at Yankee Stadium during that same time, lefties touching him up for a .290 batting average and 12.9 home run/fly ball percentage there. Soriano possesses elite closer skills and, while the Nationals have compelling candidates setting him up, he's unlikely to cede the gig. Consider him a top-five option at his position.

30. Fernando Rodney, TB RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		76	0	74.2	15	76	2	48	0	0.60	0.78	9.16		434
	2013 Projections		69	0	64.0	26	61	2	38	0	2.53	1.14	8.58		301.5
2013 Outlook: How does a guy go from walking nearly eight batters per nine innings to being a Cy Young candidate at closer? You move him over a little on the rubber, tweak his motion and alter his repertoire so he throws a few more two-seam fastballs as well as more changeups. The result for Rodney was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy season. But can he repeat? First off, regardless of anything else, his hit and home run rates were rather lucky, so some regression is expected in those areas. Ultimately, the key will be now much of his 1.81 BB/9 Rodney retains. Some giveback should be anticipated, but even so, Rodney deserves to be lumped in with the second tier of closers. Cutting your BB/9 from 7.88 to 1.81 is not done by accident, he's a different pitcher.

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