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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. Todd Frazier, Cin 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics422551967361033.273.331.498.829
2013 Projections485652370401229.266.326.485.811
2013 Outlook: A late-season, dark-horse candidate for National League Rookie of the Year honors, Frazier wound up overshadowed in the voting results by Bryce Harper's historic campaign, the result his burgeoning power perhaps being underrated entering 2013. He made tremendous strides in terms of his contact and fly ball rates, his contact rate improving to 79 percent after the All-Star break and his 47.4 fly ball percentage for the full year seventh-highest among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Frazier also lacked any discernible home/road or lefty/righty splits, meaning he's a player who deserves a chance to strut his stuff every day. Aye, that's the rub: The Reds brought in defensive whiz Jack Hannahan to provide hot-corner competition, and Joey Votto should be healthy enough to man first base every day. Frazier might cede a decent chunk of at-bats again in 2013, though NL-only owners who take cheaper shots on blossoming skills would do well to target him once the upper tier of third basemen are off the board.
17. Manny Machado, Bal 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics191247269382.262.294.445.739
2013 Projections5747119694111811.261.314.429.742
2013 Outlook: Machado, Keith Law's No. 4 prospect overall entering 2012, earned a most surprising promising promotion to Baltimore in early August -- "most surprising" in that the Orioles did so while shifting him to an unfamiliar position: third base. They also did so despite his accruing only 109 games in Double-A, with good-not-great .266/.352/.438 rates there. Machado was more than up to the task. He hit eight home runs in 57 games, counting the postseason, and played every inning at the hot corner with plus defense for the Orioles through their division series loss. He'll enter spring training the odds-on-favorite for the everyday third-base role, and despite being only 20 years of age could offer enough pop and perhaps even speed to help a mixed-league team as a corner infielder or AL-only team as a third-base starter, even while he continues adapting to life in the bigs. And in keeper leagues, the sky's the limit for this natural shortstop, who in time could challenge for the top-ranking spot there or third base.
18. Will Middlebrooks, Bos 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics26734155413704.288.325.509.835
2013 Projections502602379211428.259.292.446.738
2013 Outlook: One of the few bright spots for the 2012 Red Sox, Middlebrooks managed 32-homer, 117-RBI full-season paces en route to supplanting fan favorite Kevin Youkilis at the hot corner, though his year eventually wound up cut short at 75 games when his right wrist was broken by an Esmil Rogers 96 mph fastball. Now healed, Middlebrooks should serve as an everyday, heart-of-the-order slugger for the team, though there's a danger he'll be overhyped. He's a notorious free-swinger who could therefore require some adjustments in his first full big league year; be aware that only nine players in history have batted at least .280 while striking out at least five times as often as they walked in a season of 500-plus plate appearances. (Middlebrooks whiffed 5.38 times per walk.) Buying Middlebrooks means banking more on his homers/RBIs/runs output rather than batting average, and his level of plate discipline places him in riskier territory in points-based leagues.
19. Kevin Youkilis*, NYY 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics438721960511080.235.336.409.745
2013 Projections498832184661081.271.373.464.837
2013 Outlook: Youkilis "joined the enemy" this winter, the longtime Boston Red Sox star signing a one-year deal with the Yankees to fill in at the hot corner while Alex Rodriguez recovers from hip surgery. He fits the Yankees' desires: He's a disciplined hitter with pop, and he brings right-handed punch to a lineup that leans left-handed. Youkilis' specific role, however, will have a bearing on his fantasy value: He has a high enough on-base percentage -- .384 career, .336 in 2012 -- that a top-third-of-the-order gig would make sense, driving his runs total; he'd be more of an RBI guy if he was slotted in the 5-6-7 holes; and he'd be a bit less of an injury risk if the Yankees could find a way to frequently use him at designated hitter. How he's being used in the spring is worth tracking, but the best guess has him being an everyday third baseman and No. 6 hitter, tempering his bounce-back potential. Tread carefully, because Yankee pinstripes can often drive prices unrealistically high.
20. Michael Young, Phi 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6117986733702.277.312.370.682
2013 Projections60780107839723.292.331.409.740
2013 Outlook: After 12 years in Texas, Young moves to the Senior Circuit where he will return full time to the hot corner after serving as a utility man for the Rangers the past couple of seasons. He takes with him an excellent contact rate that has actually improved the past couple of seasons. However, Young's already middling power is rapidly declining and not likely to recover. Not only is Young's ground ball rate more than 50 percent, but contrary to popular belief, Citizens Bank Park depresses right-handed power while Young's old digs embellished it. Young can still be an asset in batting average, but his other production is waning to the point that the veteran is at best a late-game corner man or reserve. The exception is in point leagues, in which Young's lack of strikeouts gives him some sneaky value.
21. Trevor Plouffe, Min 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics42256245537921.235.301.455.756
2013 Projections507722264421163.249.310.442.752
2013 Outlook: Adjustments to his batting stance spawned a major power surge for Plouffe in the first half of last season; he hit 19 home runs, slugged .546, and had a 48.9 percent fly ball rate and 21.8 home run/fly ball percentage at the All-Star break. A thumb problem sidelined him shortly thereafter, however, and he slipped to five, .347, 43.6 and 7.4, respectively, in those categories the rest of the season. Plouffe entered spring training the favorite to start at third base for the Twins -- be aware he's also only third base-eligible in standard ESPN leagues -- and health willing he might be closer to the first-half 2012 model. He is not necessarily a 30-plus-homer slugger in the making but could be an under-the-radar 20-homer source in AL-only and deep mixed leagues.
22. Mark Reynolds, Cle 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics457652369731591.221.335.429.763
2013 Projections493752978781804.221.334.452.786
2013 Outlook: The good news is Reynolds has improved his contact rate each of the past two seasons. The bad news is he's still fanning in a whopping 30 percent of his trips to the dish. The real problem with Reynolds is playing time, as Cleveland suddenly has a lot of moving parts who can play the corner infield and outfield positions, as well as designated hitter. If Reynolds is a regular and slumps, which is likely, he's apt to lose his job. If he's part of a platoon or backup, he won't hit enough homers to compensate for his low average. Reynolds makes the most sense as a reserve in fantasy, to be deployed when you know he'll play and need an injection of power.
23. Jedd Gyorko*, SD 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics----------------------
2013 Projections450631558371125.256.313.407.720
2013 Outlook: Gyorko, 24, can really hit -- his .319/.385/.529 career slash line in the minors is proof of that -- and he's ready now. However, his natural position is third base, which just so happens to be where Chase Headley, the Padres' best hitter, resides. The alternate route, which San Diego has tried, is to push Gyorko to second, where the only "obstacles" are Logan Forsythe and Alexi Amarista. Barring a Headley trade -- an idea that has been floated -- Gyorko will need to show he can make it work at the "keystone position" this spring. Gyorko's offensive ability makes him extremely attractive as a mixed-league middle-infield starter or reserve second baseman. As a corner outfielder, though, he's less so.
24. Matt Carpenter, StL 1B, 2B, 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics2964464634631.294.365.463.828
2013 Projections47667116660993.282.363.426.790
2013 Outlook: A potential backup for the Cardinals at five different positions -- the corner infield and outfield spots, as well as second base -- Carpenter is a useful late-rounder for NL-only owners trying to fill out a roster. While he's neither powerful nor speedy enough to be clearly worthy of a chance to start, he's adept enough handling the bat to be one of the team's first options off the bench, not to mention he's worthwhile insurance for Allen Craig at first base. Carpenter's .294 batting average, .365 on-base percentage and 10.3 percent walk rate last season were within range of his lifetime .299/.408/14.5 numbers in the minors, the latter hinting that maybe he has more growth. Don't forget this name late.
25. Jeff Keppinger, CWS 3B, 1B, 2B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics3854694024311.325.367.439.806
2013 Projections53261105333361.299.340.406.746
2013 Outlook: Keppinger rarely strikes out, so his average is usually useful. The problem is the associated production is low, since he doesn't have much power or speed. But since he is slated to hit second as the regular at the hot corner for the White Sox, volume could push his counting stats to a fantasy-relevant level. Still, in fantasy, Keppinger is best suited as an injury replacement. If he's a regular for you, you may want to think about an upgrade.
26. Matt Dominguez, Hou 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics109145164170.284.310.477.787
2013 Projections48557166632770.258.307.408.715
2013 Outlook: Although not an elite prospect, Dominguez has long projected to be a respectable big league regular, and he'll get a chance to prove he's that for an Astros team hurting for big league talent. Following his July acquisition from the Marlins in the Carlos Lee deal, he parlayed a .298 batting average in 45 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City into a starting gig for the Astros during the final month of the season, batting .287 with five home runs in his final 27 games. Although the pressure surrounding him should be low, Dominguez was way too much of a free swinger in 2012, walking only 3.5 percent of the time, and pitchers might be more apt to challenge him this year. He will face competition from Brett Wallace for the third-base gig and will need a strong spring to be considered much more than an NL-only late-rounder.
27. Lonnie Chisenhall, Cle 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics142165168272.268.311.430.741
2013 Projections40655125624792.266.312.419.731
2013 Outlook: Although seemingly the Indians' third baseman of the future, Chisenhall's standing with Cleveland was thrust into question this winter as the team acquired Mike Aviles and Mark Reynolds to serve as insurance at the hot corner. Chisenhall is penciled in to start, but after a season in which he was limited to just 73 games combined between the majors and minors -- and was dreadful against left-handed pitching (.184/.205/.237) -- some hesitation by the team is understandable. He seems to lack the power potential, the patience and the contact ability to blossom into one of the elite at his position even in his prime, although at 24 years old, he certainly is capable of more than he has shown. Chisenhall badly needs a big spring to earn the faith of anyone outside of AL-only leagues, and even his drafting owners in that format won't -- and shouldn't -- overstate his potential.
28. Alex Rodriguez*, NYY 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics4637418575111613.272.353.430.783
2013 Projections33955165741766.271.355.466.821
2013 Outlook: After succumbing to his second hip surgery in four years in January, Rodriguez is expected to miss half the 2013 season, and the Yankees' general manager, Brian Cashman, admitted shortly after the operation that the worst-case scenario has A-Rod sidelined for the entire year. That's a troubling prospect, given that Rodriguez's career is in noticeable decline. His OPS has dropped each year since 2007, he had a pedestrian .717 OPS against right-handers last season and he slipped to ugly .200/.250/.304 rates with a 29.8 percent strikeout rate against breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders). At this stage of his career, A-Rod is more name than actual value, and he's a no-go in leagues that won't afford you multiple DL spots in which to stash him until his possible July return. Even if you've got that luxury, know that a .280 batting average and a 15-homer half-season might be about the best he has to offer, rates that are decidedly "un-A-Rod."
29. Nolan Arenado, Col 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics----------------------
2013 Projections3724585121460.285.322.417.738
2013 Outlook: After leading the minors with 122 RBIs at high Class A in 2011, there seemed to be a possibility that Arenado could get the call last season. The 21-year-old's performance dipped, though, including a plummet to 56 RBIs at Double-A, and even his maturity was questioned by the organization. Still, Arenado continues to be a contact machine (just 58 whiffs in more than 500 at-bats) and that, combined with gap power that may eventually morph into over-the-wall power, will play up at Coors Field. He'll most likely start 2013 at Triple-A, but with little in his way on the depth chart (ahem, Chris Nelson and Jordan Pacheco), Arenado has a very real chance to do some damage as a starting third baseman or corner infielder in NL-only leagues. Once he actually gets the call, that is.
30. Maicer Izturis, Tor 3B, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics28935220253817.256.320.315.634
2013 Projections40347433335315.261.323.347.670
2013 Outlook: There are a handful of players who, despite playing a lot and getting a decent number of at-bats, you just don't know when, where or how many at-bats are coming their way. Izturis heads that list. Players of this ilk are gold in deep leagues since you can move them around different positions, but they are better suited as reserves in mixed formats. If he lands a regular gig, and second base is open (with Emilio Bonifacio as his main competition), Izturis could even help mixed teams as a late pickup.
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