Complete 2016 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2016 SEASON STATS
16. Josh Harrison, Pit 3B, 2B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics41857428197110.287.327.390.717
2016 Projections523751051248316.287.327.432.759
2016 Outlook: Harrison couldn't live up to his excellent 2014, and even giving him a break for the torn thumb that cost him over a month doesn't really help because he was actually better after the injury. He just wasn't the hitter we saw in 2014. The .353 BABIP regressed as many expected, but it wasn't that substantial and definitely not the issue behind his drop-off. He lost a full 100 points off of his slugging percentage and his 3.4 percent HR/FB rate was 21st lowest among 211 batters to log at least 400 plate appearances. Some of that might've been bad luck, but he also pulled the ball a lot less and hit fewer fly balls. The Pirates are undaunted, clearing the path for Harrison to have a guaranteed spot with the trade of Neil Walker. It's a solid lineup and he should regularly be near the top of it.
17. Logan Forsythe*, TB 2B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics540691768551119.281.359.444.804
2016 Projections553701777551189.264.340.418.758
2016 Outlook: Opportunity knocked for Forsythe in 2015, not only the opportunity to play every day for the first time in his career, but also the chance to bat in the heart of a major league batting order. He answered the challenge in his age-28 season, finishing second on the Rays in home runs, runs, and RBI (behind Evan Longoria in all three categories), with a final line good enough to rank him 10th among all second basemen in earned 5x5 rotisserie value. His 8.9 percent walk rate was a career best, and the uptick in power did not come at the expense of contact as he maintained an above-average contact rate of 83.4 percent, a mark right around his career average. He also swiped nine bases in total, but was only 2-for-4 on the basepaths in the second half and it's hard to imagine he will get the green light to run more often this year. A dip in the power department could return him closer to fringe mixed-league status, but Forsythe has the second base job to himself and the projected lineup spot is fruitful for counting stats.
18. Howie Kendrick, LAD 2B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics4646495427826.295.336.409.746
2016 Projections560731066341037.282.327.396.723
2016 Outlook: While Kendrick may be a boring player to own in fantasy, he is certainly entertaining to observe statistically. Over the past five seasons, his batting average has very little variance and he's hit over .290 for the last three seasons. He's either scored more than 85 runs or fewer than 65 in that same five year span and he's stolen either six or 14 bases depending on the year. He's back with the Dodgers on a two-year deal as the free agent market did not work out like he hoped, and projecting Kendrick is one of the easiest projections to do any offseason. He'll hit for a good average and provide owners with a little bit in the counting categories, but not enough in any one of them to make any significant impact. A second baseman in his 30s rarely surprises statistically, so unless he mimics what Brandon Phillips did in 2015, it will be another bland season from Kendrick in 2016.
19. Dustin Pedroia, Bos 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics38146124238512.291.356.441.797
2016 Projections53782125854717.281.346.406.752
2016 Outlook: 2015 was a rough year for Pedroia owners, as he appeared in just 93 games and became a total non-factor on the basepaths. At 32 years old and in the 11th year of a career that has seen him consistently banged up, it's easy to wonder how long his body will withstand the rigors of playing the game. Pedroia missed 27 games in 2014 before missing 69 in 2015, and he isn't getting any younger. Still, second base is a very weak position in 2016 and Pedroia has hit at least .270 every year since his sophomore season in 2007. Between his consistent contact ability and the surprising power he showed in 2015 -- 12 home runs in the short campaign after failing to reach double-digits in 2013 and 2014 -- he at least provides more upside than the typical fodder at the position.
20. Joe Panik, SF 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics3825983738423.312.378.455.833
2016 Projections5968585251705.290.350.398.747
2016 Outlook: Entering last season, it appeared Panik would be able to hit for a high average but it would be vacuous. However, before a balky back prematurely ended his second season, he displayed a little pop and ran a bit. There's no doubt Panik's primary contribution will be in batting average and runs; it's nice to know he can chip in here and there with homers and steals. His on-base skills feature an excellent contact rate with an improving eye. His line drive percent is above league average and he hits more grounders than fly balls, which props up a well above-average batting average on balls in play. Panik's potential depends on your team construct. If you sold out on average to pound power and speed, Panik is a great way to get back some average while scoring a bunch of runs.
21. Devon Travis, Tor 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics2173883518433.304.361.498.859
2016 Projections423741348358011.274.332.435.767
2016 Outlook: November shoulder surgery is expected to keep Travis on the shelf for at least the first few weeks of the 2016 regular season. Acquired in a trade with the Tigers for Anthony Gose in November of 2014, he gave the Jays a tantalizing taste of his talent in 62 games played in 2015 before going on the disabled list. He displayed solid power and hit for average despite posting a subpar 80 percent contact rate and striking out in 18.1 percent of his plate appearances. The whiffs have been a persistent trend for Travis, whose strikeout rate rose for four successive seasons in the minors before his 2015 major-league debut. However, his above-average .349 BABIP and .361 OBP and .859 OPS figures all generally fall in line with the numbers Travis managed in those categories throughout his three-year minor-league career. Even five months in a lineup that features the likes of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson should allow Travis to generate solid multi-category production.
22. Starlin Castro, NYY SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics54752116921915.265.296.375.671
2016 Projections550631668251019.260.297.400.697
2016 Outlook: Impatient middle infielders that make high contact are a dime a dozen. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Castro costs more than a dime, but they traded for his contract from Chicago in hopes that a change of scenery does him well. Castro is an enigma who has flashed talent earlier in his career but has been rather inconsistent in recent years. He has had nearly 50 points in batting average variance in recent seasons and while he has continued to hit double-digit homers, the Cubs put the brakes on his stolen bases because he was costing more run than he was creating on the bases. Girardi is no more likely to let Castro run than Maddon was last season, so unless Castro somehow improves his ability to read pitchers, that part of his game is likely on mothballs. The homers, runs, and RBIs are rather easy to forecast while his batting average could be anyone's guess.
23. Brandon Phillips, Cin 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics588691270276823.294.328.395.723
2016 Projections528611267267011.280.317.392.709
2016 Outlook: Phillips is one of the most dangerous fantasy players in 2016 after an out-of-nowhere 23-stolen base campaign in 2015. Phillips had just 22 stolen bases in 1,788 plate appearances from 2012-14. The 35-year-old second baseman used to be a fantasy stud, but three straight seasons of sub-.400 SLG suggest he is unlikely to reach the upper-teens/low-20s in home runs after six years of 18 to 21 dingers from 2008-13. A key to Phillips' success has been playing time -- he's amassed at least 600 plate appearances in eight of his last nine seasons -- but second basemen don't generally hold up too well in their mid-30s. There have been only two seasons of 600-plus PA at second base over the last decade: Chase Utley (2014) and Marco Scutaro (2012). Neither season was particularly special, either. Be careful.
24. Jonathan Schoop, Bal 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics3053415399792.279.306.482.788
2016 Projections507492165171273.245.279.418.697
2016 Outlook: Schoop's strikeout rate was over 20 percent for the second straight season (23.4), and he walked at a measly 2.8 percent clip in 321 plate appearances. He experienced a notable boost in performance against righties, raising his average against right-handed pitching 89 points to .301. Schoop also put the screws to the ball more often in 2015, as his hard-contact rate of 34.5 percent represented a notable leap from his 2014 figure of 26.1. The book on Schoop for 2016 appears pretty straightforward; if he can pare down his strikeouts while maintaining the power and boosting his on-base percentage, he'll likely be able to retain the starting second base job for which he's currently slotted. This would enable plentiful fantasy production from a spot in a lineup that offers Schoop considerable protection in the form of Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Manny Machado.
25. Trea Turner, Wsh 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics405114122.225.295.325.620
2016 Projections23428321155213.265.307.359.666
2016 Outlook: Due to the league's (since changed) rules prohibiting drafted players from being traded in their first year under contact, Turner did not join the Nats' organization until mid-June, seven months after being dealt. After hitting well over .300 in consecutive stops at three different minor league levels, he received a rude welcome to the majors in 44 plate appearances. His 27.3 percent strikeout rate was the highest he'd posted at any level, while his batting average (.225), OBP (.295) and slugging percentage (.325) were his worst numbers in those categories. Last season's admittedly small -- and therefore potentially misleading -- sample size notwithstanding, Turner could see a return to numbers much closer to his solid minor league metrics with a full season of playing time in 2016. Ian Desmond's departure in the offseason put Turner one step closer to the top shortstop job, with veteran Danny Espinosa slated to head into training camp as the starter. While expecting him to wrest that spot in the exhibition season might be a bit ambitious, the talented Turner could conceivably accomplish the feat at some point during the first half.
26. Jean Segura, Ari SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics56057650139325.257.281.336.616
2016 Projections61675953219426.256.287.347.634
2016 Outlook: Segura was dealt from Milwaukee to Arizona in January, but the change in ballparks should not have much of an impact to his offense. Miller Park was as cozy an offensive park as Chase Field, and while Segura may enjoy the bigger gaps in center field, there are larger issues with Segura. He was amazing in the first half of 2014, then cooled off and has never warmed back up. While he has never been a patient hitter, he continues to expand his strike zone to go fishing for bad pitches, and the quality of his contact has suffered from it. While he remains a plus in the field, he's been a big minus at the plate, and his value has been tied into his stolen bases. Oddly, GM Dave Stewart has indicated that Segura will bat near the top of the lineup, which hurts other D'backs more than it helps him, and in the absence of A.J. Pollock, there's not much competition for him to lose his spot in the order.
27. Jose Peraza, Cin 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics22301223.182.250.318.568
2016 Projections39348238133730.277.300.349.649
2016 Outlook: Peraza was a big-time prospect heading into the 2015 season. At age 20 in 2014, Peraza tore up Double-A to the tune of .335/.363/.422 with 25 stolen bases in just 44 games. But he struggled in Triple-A and was dealt from Atlanta to Los Angeles and now to Cincinnati, where he'll enter the season as Brandon Phillips' backup at second base. With the Reds in full rebuilding mode, they'll likely try to find a way to get Peraza in the lineup, most easily accomplished by trading Phillips. If he can get in the lineup, there's a lot to like. Peraza has posted excellent contact rates throughout the minor leagues and has hit at least .270 at each stop despite being far younger than the league-average player. He stole 64 bases in 2013 and a combined 60 in 2014 before slowing down in 2015 as he switched organizations. If he can work his way into the lineup, Peraza should be a strong source of cheap speed.
28. Cory Spangenberg*, SD 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics3033842128759.271.333.399.733
2016 Projections561636473713322.260.307.369.676
2016 Outlook: Perhaps it's the fact that Spangenberg plays for the Padres that he gets overlooked. Or it could be that he has played just 128 big league games, yet has not been ranked as a top-100 prospect since before the 2012 season. Either way, he offers profit potential this year in drafts. He should bat atop the Padres' lineup and offer solid production in batting average, runs and steals. That's not to say he should be targeted or reached for in standard leagues, but inevitably there will be second base and middle infield targets who get taken ahead of their ADP, and in that case, Spangenberg represents a tolerable fallback option. It's possible he could sit against lefties, but his career splits suggest he could hack it as an everyday player.
29. Cesar Hernandez, Phi 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics40557135408619.272.339.348.687
2016 Projections579752495212424.264.326.339.664
2016 Outlook: Hernandez is a one-trick pony, and that trick is speed. He went 19-for-24 on the basepaths, but only scored 57 runs in an overall anemic offense. He has no power whatsoever, but pitchers did not fill the strike zone with pitches, and Hernandez was willing to accept his walks while hitting in the top two spots of the lineup. Given his lack of power, one would think pitchers would try to knock the bat out of his hands, but as long as they continue to not do this, Hernandez will take the walks and steal the bags. If they change how they approach him, the production disappears in a hurry.
30. Jed Lowrie, Oak 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics2303593028431.222.312.400.712
2016 Projections47369115848741.266.336.406.742
2016 Outlook: The historically brittle Lowrie put up back-to-back 550-plus plate appearance seasons in 2013 and 2014, so we had to expect some level of injury in 2015. We didn't have to wait long, as he badly injured his thumb on a play at the plate in late April and missed 10 weeks. That injury led to Carlos Correa coming up sooner than expected, and also ended Lowrie's short run at shortstop with Houston, as the team shifted him to third base before he could reach 20 games at short. Oakland is going to use him at second base, so the positional flexibility will be nice, but bad health doesn't go away and the switch hitter is much better against lefties than righties, which limits any upside.