Complete 2015 Projections

Season:

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
16. Asdrubal Cabrera, TB SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics5537414614910810.241.307.387.694369
2015 Projections5357213614710910.254.320.404.724365.5
2015 Outlook: As the theory goes, players are supposed to have a big year in their final year before free agency. Even if the theory is mostly junk science (it is), Cabrera missed the memo, as his 2014 was painfully disappointing. He did not finish in the top 15 among shortstops despite a double-double season because his batting average suffered for a second consecutive season. In fact, his batting average has declined in each of the past six seasons, right along with his batting average on balls in play. It wasn't too long ago Cabrera toyed with a 20/20 campaign, but that one season was fueled by an abnormal HR/FB rate. Another double-double turnout is entirely possible for Cabrera, who settled for a one-year, $7.5 million deal with Tampa Bay, but so is yet another below-average batting line, unless he makes some changes at the plate.
17. Danny Santana, Min SS, CFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics40570740199820.319.353.472.824310
2015 Projections587776422613322.269.304.388.693348.5
2015 Outlook: Santana is an interesting player to value for 2015, as he was an unheralded prospect who took advantage of playing opportunities to hit .319 with 41 extra-base hits and 20 stolen bases last year. He came up through the system as a shortstop, but his high error rate (36 errors in 2013) and an acute need for help in the outfield in 2014 prompted the Twins to move him to center field. However, he will be moved back to shortstop this spring to compete with Eduardo Escobar for the starting job. This makes a lot of sense, as Byron Buxton is the center fielder of the future, and the Twins lack strong internal options at shortstop. The move only adds to the fantasy intrigue, as Santana could regress mightily as a hitter, but remain useful based on the scarcity at the position. Speaking of regression, it is probably coming for Santana, as he hit a whopping .405 on balls in play and walked just 4.4 percent of the time. But even with that projected drawback in batting average, Santana should still provide stolen bases, runs and some power growth.
18. Andrelton Simmons, Atl SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics5404474632604.244.286.331.617274
2015 Projections62165115640667.256.301.367.668367
2015 Outlook: If only defense were a category in standard scoring leagues. While Simmons is spectacular in the field, his offensive game has a ways to go. His 2014 season was so terrible that he finished below the likes of Derek Jeter and Josh Rutledge in the rankings. Simmons made a ton of contact in 2014 but did nothing with it. In 2013, he had the same struggles, but he at least hit 17 home runs and scored 76 runs to bring in some value. Last season, his BABIP was once again well below the league average, and his HR/FB rate took a step back rather than the expected step forward. He stole 54 bases in his minor league career but has just 11 in the majors, thanks in part to a career .297 OBP. Simmons has an equal chance of being a three-category player as he does of being a zero-category one.
19. J.J. Hardy, Bal SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics52956952291040.268.309.372.682286
2015 Projections55361165631941.257.298.392.691323
2015 Outlook: Normally, when a batter's strikeout rate spikes like Hardy's did last year, it's because he's sacrificing contact for power. That did not happen for Hardy, as he hit just nine home runs all season, and his first one didn't come until June 21. It was his lowest homer total since 2010, when he was hampered by a wrist injury for most of the season. Hardy did struggle with a sore back at times last year, but that doesn't seem to be the primary factor in his disappearing power. The one solace is that Hardy's batting average was saved by a career-best .317 BABIP, so he didn't hurt fantasy owners by hitting .268, but he didn't help either. A fully healthy back and some HR-to-fly-ball rate normalization following last year's career-low 5.6 percent could bring him back to 15 or 20 homers, but he'll still only be a two-category player, as he doesn't steal many bases or score many runs.
20. Jed Lowrie, Hou SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics5025965051790.249.321.355.676303.5
2015 Projections48362115347791.271.338.408.746325.5
2015 Outlook: After belting a career-high 16 home runs in 96 games with Houston back in 2012, Lowrie struggled to find his power stroke in Oakland over the past two seasons. Last year with the A's, the 30-year-old shortstop hit .249/.321/.355 with only six homers and 50 RBI in 502 at-bats. Back with the Astros after signing a three-year deal in December, Lowrie's power should improve away from O.co Coliseum, but health is a concern, and his new offense isn't as talented as his surrounding cast was in Oakland. He's worth a last-round flier if you're thin in the middle infield.
21. Chris Owings, Ari SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics3103462616678.261.300.406.706185.5
2015 Projections517678482110815.257.290.371.661303
2015 Outlook: Owings had double-double seasons each year in the minors from 2011 through 2013 but has yet to do so in the major leagues. The past season, he showed some of that potential, with 27 extra-base hits and eight steals in part-time play, which put him in the lead for Arizona's starting shortstop role in 2015, now that Didi Gregorius has been traded to the Yankees. Owings showed big-time potential in Triple-A as a 21-year-old in 2013, as he hit .330 with 12 homers and 20 steals, but until he gets a handle on his plate discipline -- he walked just 16 times in 332 plate appearances last year -- he won't be a contributor in batting average, though double digits in homers and steals appear likely.
22. Didi Gregorius, NYY SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics2703562722523.226.290.363.653165
2015 Projections4646484240784.254.321.369.690291
2015 Outlook: In his first season in pinstripes, Gregorius should be able to yank a few balls into the short porch at Yankee Stadium and perhaps Oriole Park at Camden Yards, as all of his power is pull power. That said, his greater fantasy value will be to the Yankees' pitchers. Gregorius and Brendan Ryan will form a platoon that is much sharper defensively than what the Yanks got out of Derek Jeter the past several years. The two of them should be able to change many hits from the past into outs, but Gregorius will remain a poor hitter whose fantasy value will depend upon how many balls he can yank into the right-field bleachers. He's a bottom-of-the-order hitter who doesn't have noteworthy speed or any standout skills with the bat.
23. Josh Rutledge, LAA SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics3094443320832.269.323.405.728187.5
2015 Projections45158740261099.251.301.366.667256.5
2015 Outlook: Many players are affected by offseason trades, but none more so than Rutledge projects to be in 2015. For the past few seasons, Rutledge has hit an empty .287 while playing in Coors Field and a very empty .230 in all other parks. The Rockies traded him to the Angels, who play in a mostly neutral park that will not afford Rutledge an expansive outfield that turns what would normally be fly-ball outs into hits. There's very little chance Rutledge has any fantasy value with the Angels, and he's likely to find it hard to play as much as he did in Colorado. Perhaps he could net some steals in part-time play, but that's about the extent of his value.
24. Brad Miller, Sea SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics36747103634954.221.288.365.653211.5
2015 Projections41456114640936.239.307.382.689264.5
2015 Outlook: Miller was a popular sleeper pick in 2014 drafts, after a promising rookie campaign in 2013, but he disappointed fantasy owners by struggling at the plate and hit only .221/.288/.365 with 10 home runs, 36 RBI and four steals in 367 at-bats. His walk rate (8.3 percent) improved slightly, but his strikeouts (23.3 percent) ballooned by nearly 8 percent, and he had trouble making contact (74 percent). The 2011 second-round pick eventually lost his starting job to call-up Chris Taylor, and the two will compete in camp to open 2015 as the Mariners' starting shortstop.
25. Everth Cabrera, Bal SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics35736320208618.232.272.300.572169
2015 Projections42150326349331.247.304.318.623253.5
2015 Outlook: Cabrera's 2013 season ended with a Biogenesis suspension, and his 2014 season ended with a hamstring injury, plus an arrest for driving under the influence of marijuana (in early September). Between stints of poor judgment, he had a terrible season and lost all the gains he'd made in 2013, in terms of contact and plate discipline. Even the best aspect of his game was impacted, as Cabrera attempted just 26 steals, due to the injuries and a poor .272 on-base percentage. He has been on the disabled list due to leg injuries three times in the past two seasons, which is a red flag for a player whose game is completely built on speed. Perhaps a change of scenery will help him recover the fantasy value he had in 2012 and 2013, so he can forget his disastrous 2014 on all levels, but teams did not rush to sign him as a free agent this offseason.
26. Jordy Mercer, Pit SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics50656125535894.255.305.387.693308.5
2015 Projections50453115135925.260.312.391.703302
2015 Outlook: Mercer saw 190 more plate appearances in 2014 than the year before, and he set a new career mark (short career though it's been) with 12 homers. However, his batting average fell 30 points to .255, largely due to a 45-point drop in BABIP that came from increased exposure to right-handed pitching. For his career, Mercer has hit .240 against righties over 758 plate appearances and .340 against lefties in 230 plate appearances. The lefty success is still a small sample size, but the struggles against righties are real. While another season of 550-plus plate appearances might help him hit double-digit home runs again, he can't be counted on to hit for average, and he could be in danger of losing playing time to new addition Jung-Ho Kang. Further, Mercer doesn't run and hits low in the order and, thus, is best left on the waiver wire in standard mixed leagues.
27. Brandon Crawford, SF SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics491541069591295.246.324.389.713317.5
2015 Projections50154958521163.248.318.383.701304
2015 Outlook: Crawford posted new career highs with the Giants in 2014, logging 153 games, 40 extra-base hits, 10 home runs, 69 RBIs, a .713 OPS and a 10.5 percent walk rate. That might be near the peak of what he's capable of offensively, but the 27-year-old is better regarded for his superior defense at shortstop. Crawford hasn't won any Gold Glove awards, but he's a perennial contender, and his defensive ability assures him an everyday spot in San Francisco's lineup. If you wait until the later rounds of your draft to select a shortstop or middle infielder, Crawford is a decent source of runs and RBIs but won't offer much help elsewhere.
28. Francisco Lindor, Cle SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics------------------------
2015 Projections34645636286817.249.304.341.645219
2015 Outlook: Dynasty owners and prospect junkies have been raving about Lindor ever since Cleveland picked him eighth overall in the 2011 draft. The slick-fielding shortstop is highly regarded for his defense, but for fantasy purposes, his hitting and speed combination projects well for an above-average shortstop in his prime. With only 180 plate appearances at Triple-A, Lindor will start 2015 in Columbus, but he's definitely on the cusp of making his MLB debut. Cleveland traded Asdrubal Cabrera at the deadline last year, which left veteran Mike Aviles and Jose Ramirez to hold down the fort until Lindor is ready.
29. Stephen Drew, NYY SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics2711872627751.162.237.299.536115.5
2015 Projections388421346441073.219.297.381.678231.5
2015 Outlook: After waiting until late May for a team to finally sign him in 2014 and proceeding to have the worst statistical season of his career, Drew had to settle for another one-year deal this offseason to go back to the Bronx. As a 31-year-old splitting time between Boston and New York, Drew slashed .162/.237/.299 in 300 plate appearances. His batting average and OBP were the lowest marks in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and of those players, he was one of just two (Jackie Bradley Jr. being the other) to hit below .200 and slug below .300. The good news is Drew can only be better in 2015, as his BABIP of .194 was also the lowest among big leaguers with 300 plate appearances and the figure contrasted starkly to his career BABIP of .299. Drew figures to get a chance to be the starting second baseman for the Yankees, and prospective owners should view his 2013 numbers in Boston -- 13 homers, six steals, .253 average -- as the ceiling for his age-32 season.
30. Jose Iglesias, Det SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics------------------------
2015 Projections47854536267411.251.301.322.623261
2015 Outlook: Iglesias' career with the Tigers has gotten off to a less-than-perfect start, as his production dropped off in 2013 following a midseason trade from the Red Sox before being forced out for the entire 2014 season because of stress fractures in both legs. He's expected to be back to 100 percent in time to have a full spring training and figures to have the inside track on the everyday job at shortstop if he's healthy. Despite a drop across the board in his numbers after being traded to Detroit, Iglesias still put together an impressive campaign in his only full season, slashing .303/.349/.386 with an OPS of .735 in 2013. The 25-year-old's main strong suit is his impressive glove work at short, but if he can put together similar production from the plate, he should be a valuable contributor.