Complete 2015 Projections


ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | SP | RP
2014 Statistics593821972319628.288.335.440.775457
2015 Projections453721456277717.280.331.442.772353.5
2015 Outlook: It's pretty easy to poke holes in Blackmon's offensive game relative to his overall numbers from 2014. He was much better at home; he was significantly worse against lefties; he underwhelmed after May 10; he posted an OPS below .800 despite playing in Coors Field. These are all facts. Still, the 28-year-old finally got a full season's worth of at-bats, and he exceeded everyone's expectations. Fortunately, most are aware of the cautionary signs, so his draft-day price will not be a direct reflection of his production last season. There's likely some regression coming for Blackmon now that opposing pitchers are aware of the fact that he swings at 55 percent of breaking balls and off-speed stuff out of the zone. However, valuable counting stats should still be there if he can hold the every-day job. Despite slashing just .268/.318/.389 after May 10, Blackmon still hit 11 homers with 20 steals in that span. Extrapolate those numbers out over a full season and a 15-homer, 25-steal campaign is not an unreasonable expectation.
2014 Statistics500702581671531.234.334.438.772372.5
2015 Projections459682778501393.255.338.481.819361.5
2015 Outlook: Moss hit only four homers after the All-Star break, and the reason for that became pretty clear in September, when the A's announced he had been playing through a torn labrum in his hip that would ultimately require surgery. Moss had that surgery on Oct. 21 and later was traded to the Indians for second-base prospect Joe Wendle. Ideally, the Indians would like to use him at either first base or DH -- whichever position isn't occupied by Carlos Santana -- with Nick Swisher manning right field. But between Swisher's knee and Moss' hip, there's a lot of uncertainty about who is going to be available and at what capacity. Before the injury, Moss was great, hitting 21 homers with an .878 OPS prior to the All-Star break. If he fully recovers, he might even benefit from the change in ballparks, as he consistently was hurt by his home ballpark in Oakland during the past three years.
2014 Statistics56881167343676.301.351.458.808436.5
2015 Projections52676136044647.298.352.441.793393
2015 Outlook: Cabrera was one of a handful of impressive offseason acquisitions by the White Sox, and, fortunately for fantasy owners, he goes from one great hitting environment (Rogers Centre) to another in U.S. Cellular Field. A plus-plus hit tool is Cabrera's meal ticket in both real life and fantasy. He has hit better than .300 in three of his past four seasons, and last year's .301 average was good for fifth among qualified hitters. Though he missed the final 22 games of the season with a broken pinky finger, he finished with 16 home runs and six steals. Similar counting stats should be present in the switch-hitter's age-30 season. Cabrera should also be a good source of runs, as he will play almost every day, likely hitting second in Chicago's lineup, right ahead of Jose Abreu.
2014 Statistics520771352228118.315.347.490.837398.5
2015 Projections509741150217717.281.316.440.756365.5
2015 Outlook: Prior to his breakout in 2014, Harrison appeared to be safely entrenched as a quality utility player with the versatility necessary to be an asset in NL-only leagues. For the first time as a professional at any level, Harrison delivered double-digit home runs last season, turning in one of the most surprising performances of 2014 and displacing Pedro Alvarez as the Pirates' starting third baseman in the process. With the move into an every-day role, his strikeout rate ticked up to a career-worst 14.7 percent, but that mark is hardly a concern. Of greater interest is the .353 BABIP that buoyed his .315 batting average, but part of that surge might have been the result of barreling up more pitches, as Harrison dropped his ground ball rate from 46.7 percent in 2013 to 37.3 percent last season while carrying a 24 percent line drive rate. He also wasted fewer at-bats, dropping his infield fly ball rate from 23.1 percent in 2013 to a much more reasonable 7.1 percent. There will be plenty of doubters, but Harrison could end up with a prominent spot in an underrated lineup, and he offers cheap speed as his floor after swiping 18 bags last season.
2014 Statistics441572376301266.315.358.553.912356
2015 Projections503582277331346.278.324.483.807358
2015 Outlook: Martinez might have been the biggest surprise of 2014 -- both in fantasy and real terms -- as the Tigers signed him to a minor league deal in March, only to see him slash .315/.358/.553 with 23 home runs in 123 games in the big leagues. A part-time player upon being called up in late April, Martinez eventually locked down a prominent place in the order as the team's No. 5 hitter while taking over as the Tigers' starting left fielder. Boasting a career-high .238 ISO, a mark that ranked 12th among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances, Martinez topped the .300 batting average threshold by making consistent hard contact. Not surprisingly, he had a very high BABIP (.389), more than 50 points above his career norm. Strikeouts have always been an issue for Martinez, and despite last season's breakout, he still fanned in 26.3 percent of his plate appearances. Even with his improved ability to spray the ball all over the field, Martinez is more likely to trend back toward his career .272 batting average than repeat last season's .315, but he could prove to be a cheap source of power again in 2015 with an opportunity to reprise his role behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the Tigers lineup.
2014 Statistics281009110.143.351.143.4948.5
2015 Projections3996620496113621.233.340.424.764316
2015 Outlook: The Dodgers sent Matt Kemp packing this winter in part because Pederson proved himself ready to start his age-23 season with the big league club. Pacific Coast League pitchers certainly won't complain, after he slashed .303/.435/.582 with 33 homers and 30 steals in 553 plate appearances last season with Triple-A Albuquerque. However, expectations for the phenom should be tempered, as he was playing in extremely hitter-friendly environments at Triple-A, which led to a .385 BABIP. There are some questions about his approach, given he had a 26.9 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A, but he also had an 18.1 percent walk rate, which gives him a boost in both OBP and points leagues. Even with Kemp gone, the Dodgers have plenty of outfield depth, so the onus will be on Pederson to force manager Don Mattingly to keep his bat in the lineup. Playing time will be key for the young center fielder, as most of his value will come from counting stats, with his average likely lagging behind. A 20-20 rookie season is conceivable if he hits the ground running.
2014 Statistics570831052758410.272.354.395.749409
2015 Projections570781366778511.270.357.418.774437.5
2015 Outlook: The positive slant on Zobrist's 2014 looks at his 6.3 percent HR/FB rate and spins it as an outlier based on his 10 percent career mark, but the negative slant sees that he also had a 6.1 percent rate in 2013 and a 6.0 percent rate in 2010, giving him three seasons of something in the six percent range in his past five. He hit 20 homers in the other two seasons, with a 12 percent HR/FB in both. His three-position eligibility includes shortstop again, making the power dip much more palatable if that's where you plan to slot him more often than not. Only 12 shortstops hit 10-plus home runs, and only six of those chipped in at least 10 stolen bases, too. If you throw in a batting-average threshold of Zobrist's .272, you're down to just three shortstops meeting all three criteria, with Hanley Ramirez and Alexei Ramirez joining Zobrist. There is still a lot of value here, even at 34 years old and in a spacious new home park in Oakland.
2014 Statistics455581340581313.242.340.374.714274.5
2015 Projections5187915468013712.263.376.407.783380.5
2015 Outlook: Choo was a major disappointment in the first season of his massive free-agent deal with Texas. However, ankle and elbow injuries that bothered him almost all season likely played a major role in his ineffectiveness, so there remains hope for a bounce back 2015. Choo had surgeries to address both injuries in the final months of the season, and, according to early reports, he should be fully recovered in time for the start of spring training. It was reasonable to expect big things from Choo after he hit 21 home runs with 20 steals and a .285/.423/.462 slash line in 712 plate appearances with the Reds in 2013. The most impressive thing about those numbers is the fact that he continued to be lousy (.215 average) against southpaws and yet still raked enough against righties to keep his rates high. It's not wise to project anyone to get on base at a 40 percent clip, but Choo remains a reasonable threat to hit 15 homers with 15 steals atop the Rangers order.
2014 Statistics33851214940765.293.373.556.930304
2015 Projections41958205449946.274.358.487.845336
2015 Outlook: Pearce lived his early MLB life as a short-side platoon player on the four corners (first, third, left and right), but a surge against righties resulted in a nice, career year at age 31. He had six homers against right-handers in 488 plate appearances prior to 2014 but hit double that number in just 272 plate appearances while continuing to be a lefty-killer too. The ride appeared over in July, when he managed just a .681 OPS and two home runs, but he caught fire again and closed with a 1.040 OPS and 10 homers in the final two months, despite a lack of full-time play. However, this is his first run of real success against right-handers, and he's too old to map out a legitimate growth pattern. Trusting post-30-year-old breakouts is a fast track to a fifth-place finish, but Pearce should get enough at-bats at DH, with some starts sprinkled in at first base and the outfield corners, to be worth monitoring in deeper formats in 2015.
2014 Statistics34356846165523.300.339.429.767283.5
2015 Projections43066944227022.288.329.416.745320
2015 Outlook: Crawford proved in 2014 that he is still capable of being a relevant fantasy option. Despite a litany of minor ailments over the past few seasons, he was able to hit .300 with eight home runs and 23 steals in 370 plate appearances as a 32-year-old. Joc Pederson will essentially replace Matt Kemp in the Dodgers' lineup, keeping the outfield as crowded as ever, but Crawford will get enough at-bats to be useful if he can stay relatively healthy. However, he has averaged just 95.5 games per season since leaving Tampa Bay as a free agent after 2010, so banking on more than 400 plate appearances from Crawford is unwise. He has more value in leagues with daily lineup changes to help combat his inevitable absences, but outfielders who steal bases and hit .285 to .300 with some pop tend to be useful in all formats.
2014 Statistics501702269321224.244.299.457.756356
2015 Projections467682269371164.248.315.473.789354
2015 Outlook: As a rookie, Davis spent the final two months of 2013 filling in admirably for Ryan Braun in times of suspension and injury. The Brewers took notice of his impressive offensive showing and made room for Davis in the lineup on a near daily basis in 2014. His first full season went about as expected, with his fringe-average hit tool leading to a .244 average (.299 OBP) and his plus power translating into 22 home runs and a .214 ISO. He's not a good defender in left field, so last season the Brewers traded for Gerardo Parra to occasionally beef up the outfield defense. However, Davis is not the type of player who needs to be platooned, as he's similarly flawed against all pitchers. He can be overpowered by a good fastball, but is great at crushing mistakes. Entering his age-27 season, Davis should once again offer cheap power with solid contributions in runs and RBI.
2014 Statistics46164851227536.282.320.401.721350.5
2015 Projections40656637227339.268.312.379.691306.5
2015 Outlook: It seems that every offseason there are questions about Davis' playing time, but he continues to reward fantasy owners who believe in him. The speedy outfielder has had between 34 and 50 steals in each of the last six seasons despite seeing more than 450 plate appearances in just three of those campaigns. This year, the challenger for at-bats is Anthony Gose, who came over in a trade from Toronto. Gose, 24, is a younger version of Davis, but he also brings a plus arm and a little pop to the center-field equation. Entering his age-34 season, Davis will once again have his share of doubters, but only seven players stole more than 35 bases last year, and he was one of them. Even on a part-time basis, Davis should be a significant one-category contributor with a low price tag on draft day.
2014 Statistics50264146532908.245.293.398.692331
2015 Projections53870125745997.253.313.381.694340.5
2015 Outlook: At 27 years old, with 2,013 major league plate appearances under his belt, it is becoming clear the Ackley will never live up to the prospect hype that saw him drafted second overall in 2009 and included in the top 25 of prospect lists across the industry in each of his first two pro seasons. The guy who clubbed an .840 OPS and walked more than he struck out in the minors just hasn't shown up with the Mariners. A big, two-month stretch in July and August gave him decent final numbers, but he couldn't even end on a high note, with a .149 AVG and .504 OPS in September. Perhaps most surprising was the meager 6 percent walk rate after a strong 9 percent rate in his first three seasons. The additions to the Seattle lineup during the offseason will likely keep him from the two-hole, a spot he filled for 50 games last year.
2014 Statistics438481661311210.279.336.475.811296.5
2015 Projections420521557291120.267.322.455.777280
2015 Outlook: Fresh off his postseason heroics with the Giants, Morse signed a two-year deal to be the Opening Day first baseman for the Marlins. Miami is not an ideal hitting environment, but Morse has enough power to hit 20 homers in any ballpark if he gets enough plate appearances. Last season, Morse fared far better against righties, hitting .293 (compared to a .248 average against lefties). However, for his career, his slash line is almost identical against righties and lefties, so there is reason to believe he will be in the Marlins' lineup almost every day. That will be a change for the better, as he was relegated to corner-outfield duty with the Giants for much of 2014, and his horrific defense kept him out of the lineup enough to noticeably suppress his value. He hit 16 homers in 482 plate appearances last season.
2014 Statistics28048117246030.229.299.311.610205
2015 Projections33552220297132.245.312.334.646238.5
2015 Outlook: Young regressed at the plate again in 2014, hitting a mere .229/.299/.311 in 316 plate appearances with the Mets while striking out at a 19 percent clip. The 29-year-old maintained his elite speed, however, as he swiped 30 bags in 36 opportunities as a part-timer last season. The Mets declined to tender him a contract this offseason, so his fantasy value will hinge on how much playing time he'll receive if a team swoops in and signs him in free agency. Until then, you can safely ignore him in 2015 drafts.