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Complete 2013 Projections

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ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Buster Posey, SF C, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics530782410369961.336.408.549.957494
2013 Projections55076249867942.318.392.520.912483
2013 Outlook: Few players historically were more obvious choices for Comeback Player of the Year honors than Posey in 2012. Remember, one year ago at this time, our last image of Posey was the nasty home-plate collision with Florida Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins on May 25, 2011, that resulted in a fractured fibula, torn ankle ligaments and serious questions whether Posey could ever return to the daily chores of catching. Return to catching he did, and return to excellence at bat he did. He became the first catcher in 13 seasons to manage at least a .330 batting average, 20 home runs and 100 RBIs, and the result was the National League's MVP award. Again from a historical perspective, Posey's career ascent looks much like that of Mike Piazza, a Hall of Fame candidate: Posey has .314/.380/.503 rates in 308 career games in his first three seasons, while Piazza had .312/.364/.537 in 277 games in his first three. This is a once-in-a-generation catching talent, one who gets enough "time off" at first base to keep him healthy, and one who is so valuable relative to replacement at the position to warrant being one of the first picks off the board.
2. Yadier Molina, StL CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics505652276455512.315.373.501.874432.5
2013 Projections49661177442509.306.362.466.828397
2013 Outlook: Those Cardinals knew what they were doing when they signed Molina to that five-year, $75 million extension last March. Sure, a good chunk of his value derives from his defense, which is largely ignored in fantasy, but the team saw many of the good things in his hitting that we did a year ago. Sadly, we just weren't optimistic enough. Molina continued his pattern of rising fly ball and line-drive rates and rising well-hit averages, resulting in personal bests in home runs (22), batting average (.315) and slugging percentage (.501). He has arrived as the best fantasy catcher not named Buster Posey, with the only slight concern that his nine-homer second half -- driven by a more realistic 9.2 home run/fly ball percentage -- says he's probably more of a 15-18 homer than a 20-25 homer hitter going forward. Oh well, we'll live. Molina is also especially attractive in points leagues thanks to his elite contact rate and durability; he has averaged 138 games played over the past four years.
3. Matt Wieters, Bal CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics526672383601123.249.329.435.764389
2013 Projections526702993581042.266.341.490.831431
2013 Outlook: For what was effectively a "down" year for Wieters comparative to expectations, his 2012 wasn't all that bad. Wieters did, after all, set career highs in home runs (23), walks (60), total bases (229), games played (144) and plate appearances (593). He also did so in only his third full big league season as a 26-year-old, and it has long been said that catchers usually take longer to develop offensively than players at other, less taxing, positions. Wieters finished the season on a high note, batting .269/.354/.515 in his final 46 games, though that could also be attributed to a favorable second-half career history (.779 OPS, compared to .721 in the first half). Based on his slow upward career curve, he should explode with a breakout season one of these next few years. Beware overpaying for the possibility in 2013, but so long as the price remains reasonable, it's a chance well worth taking.
4. Joe Mauer, Min C, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics54581108590888.319.416.446.861467
2013 Projections53579128079755.310.399.445.844445.5
2013 Outlook: The gradual shift from behind the plate -- exactly one-half of his 2012 starts came at catcher, whereas in 2008 he started 135 times there -- seems to be doing Mauer some good. He rebounded from a down, injury-plagued 2011 to capture the majors' on-base percentage crown (.416) while placing third among catchers on our Player Rater, and in the process he set new personal bests in terms of games played (147), starts (144) and plate appearances (641). The Twins will take note of that and, while they'll probably employ another share of the catching chores between Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera, that's a plus for Mauer's keeper-league owners because it means he might again play the requisite games to qualify there for 2014, too. He'll remain a health risk for the remainder of his career, and a greater one the larger his catching demands, but few players bring the level of batting average/on-base percentage potential that Mauer does. He's well worth the choice in the early-to-mid rounds.
5. Carlos Santana, Cle C, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics507721876911013.252.365.420.785402.5
2013 Projections5368126871001155.257.372.470.843468.5
2013 Outlook: Few players have a larger value differential between leagues that use batting average versus on-base percentage as Santana; he's the kind of player most attractive in on-base and points-based leagues because of his combination of power and patience. In his brief big league career, he has averaged 24 home runs per 162 games played and walked 15.4 percent of the time, and in the second half of last season, after recovering from a June concussion, he walked (45) more than he whiffed (41) while clubbing 13 home runs in 74 games. Santana's skills are advancing and he'll turn an in-his-prime 27 in April, with the only thing keeping his ceiling from being unquestionably that of the No. 1 catcher in all rotisserie formats being the low batting average. This could be the year he breaks through, however, making him one of the best catcher values on your draft board.
6. Victor Martinez, Det C, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics------------------------
2013 Projections51071148940441.312.358.457.815413
2013 Outlook: Left knee problems cost Martinez all of 2012; he had microfracture surgery in January but then opted to skip midsummer surgery to reconstruct his ACL. The latter decision is what puts him in the health-risk category, because any setback could lead to such an operation, which would be a season-ender. All reports on Martinez's rehabilitation have been positive enough, though, and he's ticketed to serve as the Tigers' regular designated hitter and heart-of-the-order hitter; he might fit nicely sandwiched between Prince Fielder and Torii Hunter. Runs and RBIs would be abundant for Martinez in that spot, and as a DH, he'll have a chance at greater playing time -- and less nightly injury risk -- than he would've behind the plate. That he still qualifies at catcher is a boon to his value. Don't draft Martinez assuming he's truly "safe," but he's one of the more attractive catcher-eligible picks in the middle rounds in mixed formats nevertheless.
7. Mike Napoli, Bos C, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics352532456561251.227.343.469.812269.5
2013 Projections398642869581173.264.365.525.890346.5
2013 Outlook: The main concern with Napoli is his hip injury, but assuming all you care about is 2013, the prognosis is positive, although not risk-free. Those playing in keeper and dynasty formats have reason for some pause, as the issue is degenerative. On the field, the move to Fenway Park should be advantageous since Napoli is a fly ball hitter, so the Green Monster will convert many of his long flyouts to doubles ... OK, some singles, too, since Napoli is not so fleet of foot. He'll also benefit from not catching, which should keep him healthy and increase his at-bats. Ultimately, how much you feel Napoli will play will decide how high you rank him.
8. Miguel Montero, Ari CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics486651588731300.286.391.438.829374
2013 Projections487641685621140.281.372.448.820371
2013 Outlook: Montero has been one of the more reliable, yet not-quite-elite, fantasy catchers of the past two seasons, a productive prime-years hitter who made a key gain last season. That was his walk rate: He set a new personal best of 12.7 percent, helping boost his on-base percentage to .391 and assuring his batting average should remain in useful territory. Montero has balanced lefty/righty and home/road splits, failing to follow the pattern of many other Diamondbacks who capitalize mostly on the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field, meaning he's well worth using as your No. 1 backstop, whether you play in a mixed or NL-only league.
9. Wilin Rosario, Col CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics39667287125994.270.312.530.843326.5
2013 Projections444582564241123.257.294.475.769304
2013 Outlook: Rosario paced all catchers with 28 home runs and finished second among rookies in the category to Mike Trout (30), capitalizing upon the thin air of Coors Field to post .297/.348/.609 rates in his home games. His power is legit -- though his 23.7 home run/fly ball percentage is bound to regress slightly to the mean and could lower his homer total -- but this is the kind of player for whom the sum of his parts drives his fantasy ranking. Rosario doesn't walk much, his value tied up mostly in his homer potential or in exploiting his Coors matchups, and he's a weak defender, meaning he might cede valuable at-bats (with which he could hit homers) to Ramon Hernandez. He's a 24-year-old with room to grow, but there aren't many hints at his taking a significant step in 2013. Be careful not to let the lure of Coors carry you away.
10. Salvador Perez, KC CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics28938113912270.301.328.471.798211.5
2013 Projections51760157020580.298.325.437.762347
2013 Outlook: You can't ask for a swifter and more successful comeback from knee surgery than the one Perez enjoyed in 2012. Initially projected to miss three months following the March operation, he returned right on schedule, hit in 11 straight games to begin his season, and made the Royals pleased they inked him to a five-year, $7 million deal in the preseason by finishing with a .301 batting average and 11 home runs. Perez's contact ability is unfathomable; he not only ranked in the top 10 among players with at least 300 plate appearances in both his contact and swing-and-miss rates, but he batted .337 on pitches outside the strike zone, second-best in baseball, underscoring his skill as a bad-ball hitter. Despite the lack of a track record, he is one of the safest batting-average investments in the game, and his power, which plays to all fields, is on the rise. If he can stay healthy, he might make a run at the top five fantasy catchers in any format (if not higher).
11. Jesus Montero, Sea C, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics51546156229990.260.298.386.685284.5
2013 Projections531552375391060.269.320.448.768353
2013 Outlook: Looking at the adjustments the Mariners have made to the outfield dimensions at Safeco Field for 2013, you'd think they crafted them entirely to Montero's strengths. He's a big-time, up-and-coming home run source whose power plays best to left-center field, so there's plenty reason to believe he'll enjoy a better year at Safeco than his .227/.268/.337 split there last season. Seeing more time behind the plate could help; oddly enough, he had .310/.343/.498 rates and 10 home runs in 230 plate appearances at that position, compared to .227/.266/.310 and five HRs in 320 plate appearances at designated hitter. Expect more growth from him in 2013, although perhaps not more at-bats, as he'll need additional rest as a regular catcher and the team already has a bevy of DH candidates. Montero has an outstanding chance at having a season that would place him among the top 10 fantasy catchers, as well as the requisite games to qualify at the position for 2014, too (a plus for his keeper-league owners).
12. Jonathan Lucroy, Mil CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics31646125822444.320.368.513.881273
2013 Projections45155136732786.286.337.430.767320
2013 Outlook: Those opting for the cheap route at catcher in mixed leagues or seeking a lower-tier breakout candidate in NL-only formats might want to examine Lucroy more closely. His 2012 statistics don't look as good as they could have due to his having missed time with a broken hand, but that's a fluke of an injury that shouldn't lend to a poor reputation in that regard. When healthy, he made massive strides with his contact rate -- he boosted a 77 percent rate in 2011 to 86 percent last season -- and hit nearly 4 percent more fly balls, hinting at more power growth to come. Also, his well-hit average -- the measure of his at-bats that resulted in hard contact -- soared by 46 points. Lucroy will be the Brewers' starting catcher, his arrow is pointing upward and those in daily leagues with the luxury of streaming players might like to know he's a .325/.359/.571 hitter against left-handers in three big league seasons. Take a look at him if you wait at catcher, but don't wait too long in leagues deeper than our 10-team standard mixed.
13. A.J. Pierzynski*, Tex CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics47968277728780.278.326.501.827374
2013 Projections47255186424521.284.325.458.783334
2013 Outlook: Where did that come from? After averaging 15 homers from 2005 to '09 and swatting a meager 17 combined the next two years, Pierzynski exploded for 27 bombs last season. What makes the feat even more curious is that it was solely a result of a bloated HR/FB percentage. That is, Pierzynski hit the same number of fly balls as usual. There is going to be some give back, but how much? Moving to Texas and getting some at-bats at designated hitter should help the veteran receiver maintain some of his power gains. The safe play is a return to 2005-2009 levels with the possibility of both upside and downside.
14. Carlos Ruiz, Phi CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics37256166829504.325.394.540.935337
2013 Projections37650115437462.303.382.465.847297
2013 Outlook: In his sixth full big league season, at the age of 33, "Chooch" finally became a full-season asset in every fantasy league -- including 10-team and one-catcher formats. Perhaps motivated by a lack of young, healthy run producers surrounding him in the Phillies' lineup, he became more aggressive at bat, setting career highs in home runs (16), RBIs (68), slugging percentage (.540) and line-drive rate (21.2 percent). Unfortunately, as quickly as Ruiz has transformed into a fantasy stud, he might return to his former reputation of being a second-half player/midseason trade target, as he is suspended for the first 25 games of 2013 after testing positive for Adderall. His skills place him among the 10 best at his position on a per-game basis; however, picking him requires finding a suitable fill-in for April.
15. Brian McCann, Atl CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics43944206744763.230.300.399.698298
2013 Projections39845186348723.261.342.437.779299
2013 Outlook: McCann's 2013 debut will be delayed until at least mid-April as he recovers from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. This, combined with a down 2012, will depress his market value. If you can put McCann in a DL spot until he is ready, he could be a nice source of second-half power. Last season's woes could have been injury-related, but he also hit into some bad luck in terms of average. His contact rate was fine, and he hit a normal amount of line drives, but his BABIP was almost 60 points lower that his career mark, resulting in a career-low .234 batting average. That should increase, so if the spring reports indicate McCann will be at full strength once he's back, a typical season can be expected.
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