ESPN » Free Fantasy Baseball » OTM Varitek League

Compare Players (0)

Complete 2013 Projections

Season:

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | SP | RP
Last Name: Team:

View Sortable Projections

«PREVIOUS | NEXT»

PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

16. Jason Motte*, StL RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		67	0	72.0	17	86	4	42	0	2.75	0.92	10.75		357
	2013 Projections		61	0	57.0	15	65	4	34	0	2.84	1.05	10.26		279.5
2013 Outlook: Apparently, Motte's sensational late-season run as Cardinals closer during their 2011 World Series championship year wasn't a fluke. Not that fantasy owners should've expected it was; once a pitcher armed merely with a high-90s fastball as straight as an arrow, he has since given it some movement and added a slider/cutter that is as filthy as anyone's. Motte's skills are at their peak, he has three consecutive years of sub-3.00 ERAs, back-to-back campaigns with a WHIP under 1.00, and he's the closer for a competitive Cardinals team that can grant him more than 40 save opportunities. Still, investing in saves can be a risky maneuver, especially in light of news that Motte might begin the season on the DL with an elbow injury. Assuming his injury isn't deemed too serious, he could be a top-five closer for the season's final five months -- a top-three had he been fully healthy on Opening Day.

17. Huston Street, SD RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		40	0	39.0	11	47	2	23	0	1.85	0.72	10.85		213.5
	2013 Projections		49	0	44.0	10	52	2	31	0	2.66	0.98	10.64		242
2013 Outlook: Few pitchers possess Street's combination of an extensive list of injuries and elite performance between his various aches and pains. He has made six trips to the DL in eight seasons, and has suffered absences of at least 10 games for hamstring, chest, groin, elbow, biceps, shoulder, triceps and lat issues during his career. Still, Street has never had an ERA higher than 3.86 or a WHIP over 1.22 in any single season, his 3.01 career ERA and 1.04 WHIP rank 22nd and seventh, respectively, among relievers since his rookie year of 2005, and his 201 saves are the eighth-best total in those past eight seasons combined. Street is also coming off arguably his best single season from a rate/per-game basis, due in part to him calling spacious Petco Park his home. Picking him to fill your team's saves column effectively requires a handcuff (Luke Gregerson?), but he's being paid to close and has long pitched like someone who deserves to close. In a league in which saves are plentiful on the waiver wire in-season, Street is an even more attractive pick.

18. Rafael Betancourt, Col RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		60	0	57.2	12	57	1	31	1	2.81	1.13	8.90		250.5
	2013 Projections		65	0	59.0	10	68	2	33	0	3.20	1.05	10.37		272
2013 Outlook: Betancourt's peripherals took a bit of a nosedive last season as his strikeout rate dropped while his walk rate grew, though it was still a stellar 1.87 BB/9. Still, since Betancourt turns 38 in April, one has to wonder if this is the beginning of the descent for the veteran reliever. Perhaps as insurance, the Rockies brought in Wilton Lopez and are still grooming Rex Brothers for the closer role. The job is still Betancourt's to lose and provided there is no skills decline, he still can get the job done though his margin of error is less. In an always transient closer market, Betancourt is best thought of a high-end third-tier option.

19. Grant Balfour, Oak RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		75	0	74.2	28	72	3	24	15	2.53	0.92	8.68		286
	2013 Projections		62	0	56.0	23	65	3	24	9	3.21	1.20	10.45		224.5
2013 Outlook: After a couple of unsuccessful stints as closer, including opening the 2012 season, Balfour reassumed the role after the All-Star break and finished the season with 17 consecutive save conversions. This should make him the leader in the Athletics' clubhouse entering the 2013 campaign. Oakland has historically displayed an itchy trigger finger when it comes to closers, and with good but not great peripherals, Balfour is prone to slumps. On the other hand, this could serve to lower his price, making him an interesting second-tier target in a transient market. You're likely to get your money's worth and maybe more.

20. Chris Perez, Cle RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		61	0	57.2	16	59	0	39	0	3.59	1.13	9.21		278.5
	2013 Projections		62	0	55.0	20	54	2	36	0	3.27	1.22	8.84		261
2013 Outlook: Perez calmed the fears of those concerned about a rapidly declining strikeout rate by registering a fine 9.2 K/9 last season. In addition, he sported a career low 2.50 BB/9. While there's no guarantee Perez will maintain those gains, especially the better control, it's good to see he was able to get back on track last year. Perez is slated to be the Indians closer, but some feel he'll be traded at some point, perhaps before Opening Day due to an impending salary bump in arbitration, along with residual friction from his well-publicized frustration with former manager Manny Acta. If you roster Perez, it is wise to also secure Vinnie Pestano, the next in line for saves in Cleveland.

21. Alexi Ogando*, Tex SP, RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		58	1	66.0	17	66	2	3	12	3.27	1.00	9.00		148
	2013 Projections		27	27	157.0	44	142	10	0	0	3.55	1.18	8.14		287
2013 Outlook: The Rangers intend to put Ogando back in their rotation this season, and the memory of his 2011 in that role might generate much excitement surrounding the idea. In his career as a starter -- 29 starts that season, one more in 2012 -- Ogando has 17 quality starts, a 3.49 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, though as a result of having to dial down his fastball a couple ticks, his strikeouts-per-nine ratio is a modest 6.67. Ho-hum, that merely means it's worth more careful examination of his most challenging matchups. To that end, Ogando's extreme fly ball tendencies make him more susceptible to stinkers in bandboxes, such as Rangers Ballpark against a loaded lineup, but there's generally a lot to like about a guy with a 95 mph fastball. He might be capped in the 160-170 innings range, but as a late-round pick with upside, he's plenty attractive nonetheless.

22. Jason Grilli, Pit RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		64	0	58.2	22	90	1	2	32	2.91	1.14	13.81		148
	2013 Projections		63	0	62.0	25	68	3	31	0	3.48	1.24	9.87		246
2013 Outlook: Grilli's emergence the past couple seasons was one of the primary reasons the Pirates were so willing to trade closer Joel Hanrahan during Christmas week; they knew they had an underrated fallback already inked to a two-year, $6.75 million deal. Odd, isn't it, considering Grilli is a 36-year-old, 10-year major league veteran with only five career saves to his credit? Kudos to the Pirates for realizing that you can go cheap at closer, as they recognized that the right-hander has remade himself, going primarily fastball-slider, and posting a 2.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past two seasons combined. He's plenty capable of closing, with the occasional blip due to his low ground ball rate, but at least he pitches for a Pirates team lacking in ninth-inning alternatives. As a lower-end fantasy closer available in the late rounds, Grilli definitely warrants your attention.

23. Glen Perkins, Min RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		70	0	70.1	16	78	3	16	11	2.56	1.04	9.98		232
	2013 Projections		64	0	67.0	17	60	3	27	9	3.36	1.15	8.06		248
2013 Outlook: Perkins might be the most deserving closer no one knows about. That's perhaps due to one of two things: (A) He spent the earlier stages of his career as more of a LOOGY (Left-handed One-Out GuY); and (B) once he graduated into a ninth-inning role, he had to settle for a share of the ninth-inning chores with right-hander Jared Burton. A Perkins-Burton partnership could be in the cards for 2013, considering managers' historical reliance upon right-handers rather than left-handers in the closer role, but Perkins has skills and stats that could elevate him. He went 12-for-13 in save chances with a 1.93 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 11.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio in the second half last season, and in 2012 overall he limited right-handed hitters to .241/.297/.424 rates, making him a much more balanced reliever. AL-only owners might like a pitcher like this piecing saves together on the cheap, and if Perkins captures the full-time role, he'd be a bargain bet in all mixed leagues.

24. Kenley Jansen, LAD RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		65	0	65.0	22	99	5	25	8	2.35	0.85	13.71		292.5
	2013 Projections		64	0	63.0	27	105	4	17	18	2.71	1.06	15.00		243.5
2013 Outlook: Jansen's strikeout ability is elite by historic proportions: His 14.58 K/9 ratio and 40.8 percent K rate (percentage of total batters faced) rank second all-time, trailing only Craig Kimbrel in either regard. It's that ability that makes him a meaningful fantasy reliever even if he's not closing, and as the 2013 season dawned, it appeared Jansen would not be closing following the Dodgers' signing of Brandon League to a four-year, $27.5 million deal. The Dodgers' hesitance to push Jansen back into the role in which he was so successful early last season is somewhat understandable; he missed chunks of each of the past two years with an irregular heartbeat and had surgery in October to correct it. Still, he's one of the game's middle relievers with the highest ceiling, and on skills alone he can and should challenge League for the job in-season, just as he did Javy Guerra a year ago. Consider Jansen one of the top handcuffs in the game, a valuable ERA/WHIP/K's helper, and perhaps one of the best bargains among middle men.

25. Ryan Madson*, LAA RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--		--
	2013 Projections		53	0	54.0	14	65	4	19	6	2.83	1.06	10.83		208.5
2013 Outlook: Madson is on the comeback trail from April 2012 Tommy John surgery and hopes to serve as the Angels' closer early in the season, though it appears likely that he'll miss the first couple weeks of the year as he continues to rehab. Certainly closing appeared to be the intent when the team signed him, but historical examples support fantasy owners' rationale to take a more conservative draft-day approach with the right-hander (see: Joe Nathan in 2011). Still, let's not forget how successful Madson was as a closer in 2011: 32-for-34 in save chances, with a 2.52 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 55 appearances after taking over full-time. The Angels have talented ninth-inning insurance for Madson in Ernesto Frieri, making a handcuff scenario smart for fantasy owners who can afford it. But in all likelihood, they'd rather see Madson lead the team in saves, considering he's the one with the better command.

26. Casey Janssen, Tor RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		62	0	63.2	11	67	1	22	1	2.54	0.86	9.47		244.5
	2013 Projections		60	0	62.0	14	65	3	23	13	2.90	1.06	9.44		244.5
2013 Outlook: Considering the Blue Jays are in clear win-now mode, they could opt to deal for a more seasoned closer despite Janssen demonstrating he is quite capable of handling the job as evidenced by a 67:11 K:BB in 63 2/3 innings. Lack of experience is what keeps Janssen from being grouped in with the better closers, but this serves to depress his market cost. If you are in the wait -on-saves crowd, don't wait so long that you miss out on Janssen.

27. Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		73	0	79.1	29	87	4	29	7	2.50	1.11	9.87		303.5
	2013 Projections		67	0	71.0	30	61	3	30	4	3.93	1.31	7.73		240.5
2013 Outlook: Seattle handed Wilhelmsen the closer role last June and never looked back, finishing with 29 saves in 34 chances. This time around, Wilhelmsen will have the gig from Opening Day and he has the peripherals to continue to get the job done. If your league still doesn't understand that weak teams still generate ample save opportunities, teach them a lesson and draft Wilhelmsen with confidence.

28. Steve Cishek, Mia RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		68	0	63.2	29	68	5	15	13	2.69	1.30	9.61		198
	2013 Projections		63	0	67.0	29	63	4	32	4	3.22	1.36	8.46		261.5
2013 Outlook: An incumbent, Cishek is the current favorite to close for the Marlins, though there have been rumblings that Miami may look to bring someone in from outside the organization. Cishek assumed the role in the middle of last season after the club finally tired of Heath Bell's inconsistency. Cishek's walk rate is higher than you want from your closer, but he whiffs enough to compensate. That said, don't expect a repeat of last season's 2.69 ERA as Cishek's expected ERAs (both FIP and xFIP) are well over the 3.00 mark.

29. Ernesto Frieri, LAA RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		67	0	66.0	30	98	5	23	7	2.32	0.98	13.36		276
	2013 Projections		72	0	68.0	31	99	6	21	14	3.04	1.19	13.10		251.5
2013 Outlook: One of 2012's most successful -- and under-the-radar -- in-season trade acquisitions, Frieri cost the Angels Alexi Amarista and Donn Roach in a May trade, but his output come year's end placed him at No. 11 among pure relief pitchers on our Player Rater. Always valuable to the Padres in middle relief, Frieri rode a 2.32 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 56 appearances for his new team into a share of the closer role, in which he saved 23 games to put himself in the conversation for the 2013 gig. Walks, however, have limited him, as he has a 4.54 BB/9 ratio for his career, and the Angels signed veteran Ryan Madson presumably to close when healthy. Draft Frieri assuming he'll be more helpful in an ERA/K's/holds capacity out of a setup role, but there's at least a chance that Madson might require an early-season DL stint, opening up an opportunity for Frieri to establish himself as "the guy."

30. Brandon League, LAD RP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		74	0	72.0	33	54	2	15	8	3.13	1.36	6.75		170
	2013 Projections		71	0	68.0	24	51	3	20	6	3.18	1.29	6.75		193.5
2013 Outlook: The official word from the Dodgers is League is their closer. With Kenley Jansen lurking, most believe League's days with the job are numbered. If you judge by skills, it's not close, Jansen blows League away. But League impressed the Dodgers' brass with an ERA of 2.30, inducing three times as many grounder as fly balls. The threat of Jansen is going to significantly reduce League's cost on draft day, but you can use this to your advantage. During the course of the season, you're always searching for that extra handful of saves, so why not get them at the very beginning, after you've acquired your full-time closers? Who knows, maybe League will hold the job longer than expected and you have a surplus of saves and can thus make a trade.

«PREVIOUS | NEXT»

Expand Help Topics+

ESPN.com | Member Services | Fantasy Games | Help | Interest-Based Ads | Give Us Your Feedback | Patents

Call 1-888-549-ESPN for help on all things Fantasy

Copyright ©2013 ESPN Internet Ventures. Terms of Use and Privacy Policy and Safety Information/Your California Privacy Rights are applicable to this site.

Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of MLB.com. All rights reserved.

©2010 Major League Baseball Properties, Inc. All rights reserved. Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are use with permission of the applicable MLB entities. All rights reserved.