Complete 2014 Projections

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PROJECTED 2014 SEASON STATS
16. Anibal Sanchez*, Det SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics2929182.05420214002.571.159.99464
2014 Projections3131194.05319515003.341.199.05443
2014 Outlook: Overshadowed by Max Scherzer on his own team and largely overlooked in the American League Cy Young balloting (he finished fourth), Sanchez nevertheless enjoyed one of the most underrated 2013 campaigns of anyone. He led the American League in ERA (2.57), had the third-best strikeout rate (27.1 percent) and made a remarkable comeback from a shoulder issue that cost him a 10-day absence, as well as a 20-day DL stint midseason, to post a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his final 16 starts. Sanchez, who has both an elbow and a shoulder surgery on his pro resume, actually improved his velocity following his absence, quashing questions about his long-term health. He continues to make small gains in skills each season and again will be backed by one of the game's most productive lineups, meaning his career-best 14 wins of 2013 is repeatable. Sanchez might not seem a top-shelf fantasy starter by reputation, but the numbers support his candidacy.
17. Greg Holland, KC RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics68067.01810324711.210.8713.84468
2014 Projections64068.02310564201.991.0113.90440
2014 Outlook: Holland's 2013 is all the more remarkable if you consider that this No. 2 relief pitcher and No. 21 player overall on our Player Rater actually lost his closer job for a brief spell early in the season. But even if you account for his rocky early April, since he took over as the Kansas City Royals' closer on Aug. 1, 2012, he ranks second in the majors in saves (63), third in relief ERA (1.43), eighth in WHIP (0.93) and fifth in strikeout rate (37.7 percent). He has a filthy slider that generates many swings and misses, and made huge strides with his control in 2013, his 7.1 percent walk rate a big improvement upon 2012's 11.8 percent. If there's to be any criticism of Holland, it's that he has a 7.04 ERA in his career in the month of April, but both the Royals and his fantasy owners are probably prepared to absorb that and be patient, even through any brief rough patches. He's the sneaky entrant into the four-man, upper tier of fantasy closers, and the only one of that group who hails from the American League. Don't wait on him for long.
18. Homer Bailey*, Cin SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3232209.05419911003.491.128.57424
2014 Projections3333214.05318716003.571.207.86443
2014 Outlook: For a pitcher with seven years of experience in the majors, Bailey is awfully young (he's 27). Take that fact to heart, as it's easy to put a cap on a player's expectations after that many seasons, but in his case, he has shown many signs of growth over the years. To wit: Bailey's strikeout-to-walk ratio has improved in every one of his big-league years, his ground-ball rate has risen in each of the past two, and his swing-and-miss rate is on a five-year pattern of improvement. It's easy to forget that, at the time of his June 8, 2007, debut, he was considered a future staff ace. It took time, but Bailey has inched closer to it every year, and in 2014 he'll be playing for a new contract. He was a top-25 fantasy starter in 2013, and there's a chance he'll take another step forward in 2014.
19. Matt Cain*, SF SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3030184.1551588004.001.167.71324
2014 Projections3232205.05417913003.511.147.86415
2014 Outlook: Cain must have angered the "luck gods," because his 2013 looked like a case study for mean-regression analysis. After four consecutive seasons of elite fantasy numbers -- and two more of, at minimum, mixed-league meaningfulness -- Cain's statistics tumbled, his ERA rising to its highest since his rookie year of 2006. One number encapsulated his struggles: He afforded a home run on 10.8 percent of the fly balls he allowed, an increase of more than 3 percent and a change that can influence a pitcher's ERA by as much as a half-run. Everything else in Cain's statistical profile was close to the statistics of his six seasons prior, meaning that either regression finally caught up with him or he's capable of rebounding to his past form. That said, don't entirely blame luck: A forearm issue did cost him a brief DL stint, and his mechanics were occasionally off, so maybe there's more to the story. The smart move is to pick Cain assuming a mild rebound, anything more first requiring a sacrifice to Homerperflyeus, the Greek god of keeping fly balls in parks.
20. James Shields, KC SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3434228.26819613003.151.247.71459
2014 Projections3434234.06620415003.581.237.85452
2014 Outlook: For three straight seasons now, Shields has been one of the most consistently reliable pitchers in baseball, and in leagues that award for quality starts rather than wins, he's extremely underrated. To that point, he tied for the major league lead in quality starts in 2013 (27), and his 72 quality starts from 2011-13 combined ranked third behind only Clayton Kershaw (77) and Justin Verlander (75). Shields also thrived in an outdoor environment for the first time in his career last season in Kansas City; he had a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 32 starts outdoors. (That said, he dominated in his two starts indoors, again supporting his cause as a must-start in dome/retractable roof games.) While Royals pitchers rarely capture fantasy owners' attention, Shields shouldn't be overlooked because of his team's recent history. He's as reliable as they come outside the Cy Young-caliber tiers.
21. Mat Latos, Cin SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3232210.25818714003.161.217.99451
2014 Projections3333214.06219115003.571.228.03431
2014 Outlook: It's unfortunate that the concluding 2013 memory we have of Latos was his being scratched from his scheduled wild-card game start because of an elbow issue. After all, there's little reason to sweat it considering he had October surgery to remove bone chips from the elbow, and his second-half stats showed no signs of injury limitation: He had nine quality starts, a 2.68 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 starts. These could place Latos in the bargain-candidate bin rather than where he belongs, as a viable member of the SP2 class in mixed leagues. Latos' numbers haven't suffered at all as a result of calling Great American Ball Park his home -- he has a 3.00 ERA at home and 3.67 on the road in his two years for the Cincinnati Reds -- and he's coming off a year in which he set a career low with a 6.6 percent walk rate. He still has room for improvement.
Stephania Bell: Latos had October arthroscopic elbow surgery to remove bone debris and was throwing in Arizona, until he slipped and injured his knee. After meniscus surgery, his timetable is unclear but expect a minor delay. Addendum (3/16): Latos has now logged several bullpens and a live BP without incident. He is tentatively set to appear in his first spring training game March 19.
22. Gio Gonzalez, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3232195.27619211003.361.258.83403
2014 Projections3333207.07720315003.571.258.83436
2014 Outlook: After a breakthrough 2012 campaign that saw him finish third in the National League Cy Young balloting, Gonzalez took a step backward statistically in 2013; not merely his 10-win drop, but also in most all of his ratio departments. Some of that was natural regression, but in his defense, some was merely the product of a poor April (5.34 ERA), as he managed 19 quality starts, a 2.97 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 26 starts from May 1 onward. On a playoff-hopeful Nationals team, Gonzalez has a legitimate chance at again approaching 20 wins with a sub-3.00 ERA, but fantasy owners must understand that his elevated walk rate, resulting in a WHIP higher than most elite starters, keeps him out of that class. There's bounce-back potential in the left-hander, but he's more second or third option on a mixed-league staff than a true "ace."
23. Jordan Zimmermann, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3232213.14016119003.251.096.79465
2014 Projections3333213.04016314003.551.166.89407
2014 Outlook: Zimmermann continues to outperform his peripherals thanks to his polished control and ability to pitch effectively deep into games: Over the past three seasons, his 4.9 percent walk rate ranked 11th (minimum 300 innings) and his 67.8 quality-start percentage 13th (minimum 50 starts), and this despite his 3.35 FIP during that time, placing only 20th. Zimmermann faces one significant fantasy obstacle: He doesn't miss bats at an elite rate, failing to strike out 20 percent of the hitters he has faced in any of those three seasons. He is therefore reliant upon his defense, as well as good fortune on balls in play. It's those traits that keep him just outside the upper tiers of fantasy starters, though he's as reliable as they come beyond that group.
24. Jered Weaver, LAA SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics2424154.13711711003.271.146.82307
2014 Projections3232210.05116616003.731.187.11415
2014 Outlook: Weaver is a rotisserie king despite less-than-stellar peripherals. In the past three seasons combined, he has the fourth-most wins (49), fourth-best ERA (2.77) and second-best WHIP (1.05). Conversely, his FIP ranks 30th (3.54), strikeout rate ranks 54th (19.9 percent) and K/BB ratio ranks 33rd (3.31) during that same time span. Keep these in mind depending upon your league's scoring, as this is a pitcher who belongs among the elite in traditional rotisserie, but who might be vastly overrated in more sabermetric scoring formats. Weaver's three-year pattern of declining strikeout rates also hints at a possible step backward even in the former, and he has a wide home/road split -- 2.24 ERA at home, 3.29 on the road -- from 2011-13, which makes him worth examination on a matchup-by-matchup basis. He's well worth your pick, but heed our cautionary notes.
25. Masahiro Tanaka*, NYY SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics------------------------
2014 Projections3333205.05018716003.641.228.21430
2014 Outlook: The winter's most-analyzed foreign import, Tanaka arrives in the Big Apple to face the pressures of pitching in the offensively-minded American League East in one of the game's most homer-friendly venues, Yankee Stadium. He is, however, plenty up to the task. Tanaka's arsenal compares favorably to fellow splitter-throwers Dan Haren and Hisashi Iwakuma -- he should enjoy a healthy ground ball rate that counters some of the ballpark effects -- and he'll be backed by a productive offense that maximizes his win potential. Though we cannot possibly know how smooth a transition he'll make in the States until we see him in action, Tanaka has good odds of mounting a run at the top-20 starters in mixed leagues, and he has both the control and swing-and-miss stuff to be a reliable pick in sabermetrically oriented leagues, too. If there's any doubt about him, it's the massive amount of work put on his arm in Japan -- Felix Hernandez is the only active major leaguer who had thrown more professional innings in his career at the age Tanaka is now -- but that's more of a concern for dynasty-league owners than those in redraft formats.
26. Shelby Miller, StL SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3131173.15716915003.061.218.78392
2014 Projections3333196.06518914003.401.238.68417
2014 Outlook: Just because his St. Louis Cardinals largely ignored Miller during last year's playoffs doesn't mean you should follow suit at the draft table this season. He enjoyed a productive rookie campaign, with his 2.92 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 26.4 percent strikeout rate in 18 first-half starts illustrating his immense statistical ceiling; most of the reason for his invisibility in October was his team's conservative approach to his workload. After 173 1/3 innings in 2013, Miller shouldn't have as many restrictions this year, and if he can continue polishing his cutter and changeup to add to his already sound fastball and curveball, he might be able to extend last year's first-half dominance over six months. That potential is the reason he's worth making one of your first three starters in a mixed league, and a potential No. 2 in NL-only leagues.
27. Doug Fister, Wsh SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics3332208.24415914003.671.316.86367
2014 Projections3333214.04016414003.491.186.90413
2014 Outlook: The Washington Nationals might have scored themselves a coup with their December trade for Fister; they picked up arguably baseball's second-best control artist (behind Cliff Lee) at the price of two prospects and a bench bat. Since the date of Fister's first major league start (Aug. 11, 2009), he has the majors' fourth-best walk rate (4.8 percent) and walks-per-nine ratio (1.81), as well as the highest swing rate on non-strikes (38.4 percent) and the second-best called-strike rate (38.4 percent), behind only Lee. Fister has an arsenal that consists of both precision and deception, things that should play nicely in the more pitching-oriented National League. He might enjoy improved ratios on his new team at no expense to his win total, and he'll have a better defense behind him than the one that backed him in Detroit. There aren't many more stable investments in the SP3 class.
28. Gerrit Cole, Pit SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics1919117.12810010003.221.177.67246
2014 Projections3333195.05318414003.651.198.49408
2014 Outlook: While anyone who drafts Cole this season is speculating upon his immense statistical upside, scouts' longtime reports justify the decision: He was the No. 1 pick overall in the 2011 amateur draft and earned No. 3 (2012) and No. 2 (2013) rankings among pitchers in Keith Law's annual prospect rankings. Cole's combination of high-90s fastball and nasty slider are rarely matched in the professional ranks, and he concluded his 2013 debut season in the majors with a 2.31 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in his final nine starts. He also tallied 196 1/3 innings in 2013 (including minors and postseason), hinting that he won't face any workload limitation this season, meaning his potential is already immense. Extensive experience at this level is the one thing Cole lacks; if you're comfortable with spending a top-30 starter pick on the right-hander -- granted an expensive price tag for a pitcher with his short track record -- you might land yourself a potential top-10 performer.
29. Trevor Rosenthal, StL RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics74075.12010823292.631.1012.90212
2014 Projections64068.0208643702.511.0311.38377
2014 Outlook: At the time news broke that projected St. Louis Cardinals closer Jason Motte had an elbow injury that would eventually require Tommy John surgery, Rosenthal appeared the obvious replacement, thanks to his high-90s fastball and elite changeup, both of which he could command and use to generate many swings and misses. He was one of 2013's breakout relief pitchers; what no one could've seen coming was that he'd spend most of it in the eighth inning, only graduating to the ninth in time for the playoffs, during which he had four saves in five chances to go along with 11 2/3 shutout innings. Rosenthal's performance was both outstanding and historic, as he became only the ninth reliever in history to manage at least 100 K's with 20 or fewer walks in a season, and it set him up well to close for the Cardinals at the onset of 2014. His ceiling is as high as any closer -- the case can legitimately be made that he warrants consideration alongside our "Big Four" top tier -- with any rankings/draft-stock hesitation centered upon his limited experience as a closer, his somewhat aggressive early-2013 usage and Motte's projected midseason return. But we must admit, we're nit-picking.
30. Alex Cobb, TB SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2013 Statistics2222143.14513411002.761.158.41351
2014 Projections3333207.06717815003.611.277.74401
2014 Outlook: Cobb's 2013 wasn't a mere breakout story; his included a heartwarming tale of recovery, as he made a flawless comeback from a concussion suffered when he was struck in the ear by a line drive in June. Before that incident, he had a 3.01 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 69.2 quality start percentage; he had 2.41/1.14/55.6 numbers following his return. Cobb gets it done with one of the prettiest changeups in baseball, one he threw a major league-high 32.8 percent of the time: Opponents batted .210/.265/.306 against it, and it produced 189 outs, fifth-most by any pitcher on changeups alone. It helps him induce countless ground balls, keeps his lefty/righty splits balanced, and makes him one of the safest mid-range investments among starting pitchers.