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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. Alexei Ramirez, CWS SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics59359973167720.265.287.364.651532
2013 Projections599701372307815.269.306.389.695588
2013 Outlook: Through May 31 of last season, Ramirez was hitting .229 with only one homer (though he did have six steals). From that point on, he hit a healthy .283 with eight homers and 14 steals, reminding us why we should be patient with durable players who possess a strong track record and stable skills. If you don't worry about attacking scarcity early, Ramirez is a solid choice to fill a hole later. To be safe, expect a few less steals but more homers than last season.
17. Andrelton Simmons, Atl SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics1661731912211.289.335.416.751169
2013 Projections52973653316321.278.319.386.705529
2013 Outlook: The Braves' winter losses of Michael Bourn (free agency) and Martin Prado (trade) left them without a true leadoff man, making Simmons the most likely candidate for the role come Opening Day. While it's an odd role for him -- he had a good-not-great .335 on-base percentage during his 49-game big league stint and only a so-so 6.2 percent career minor league walk rate -- it's a plus for him in fantasy, because it means that while he adapts to life as an every-day big leaguer, he'll accrue enough at-bats and presumably be driven in enough by the Braves' retooled lineup to offer his owners a good base in terms of runs scored, batting average and stolen bases. At this stage of his career, Simmons' glove is his most polished skill -- sadly that won't count for much in most fantasy leagues -- but he's also a contact-hitting, disciplined player with less downside than your typical 23-year-old with only a half-season's experience. A major breakthrough might not be in order, but rather a stat line worthy of mixed-league middle infield or NL-only starting shortstop status.
18. Everth Cabrera, SD SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics398492244311044.246.324.324.648310
2013 Projections549661305414042.233.305.308.613391
2013 Outlook: Cabrera is fast. Last season, he attempted steals on 30 percent of his opportunities, took the extra base 67 percent of the time he was on and swiped 43 total bags, all three of those stats ranking among the 10 best in the game. Cabrera also knows the strike zone, sporting an 11.3 percent walk rate during his minor league career and 9.6 percent rate for the Padres in 2012 -- good considering he's not much with the stick. He's a .240 career hitter who in 2012 had a .133 well-hit average -- hard contact frequency -- which ranked second-worst among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Thanks to the walks, though, Cabrera should be able to stick as a regular again and get on base frequently enough to capitalize on his speed. He's effectively a one-category performer at this stage, but there are worse things than to fill your shortstop/middle infield spot in a rotisserie league with a 50-steal candidate.
19. Josh Rutledge, Col SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics277378379547.274.306.469.775304
2013 Projections4866512571910812.274.309.434.743479
2013 Outlook: An under-the-radar prospect who filled in admirably at shortstop during Troy Tulowitzki's lengthy absence last summer, Rutledge projects as the Rockies' starting second baseman at the onset of the season. He does two things key to fantasy success well: He has pop, evidenced by eight homers in 73 big league games and 17 homers per 162 career minor league games, and speed, illustrated by seven steals for the Rockies following an average of 24 per 162 games in the minors. But while Rutledge might be an instant fantasy hotshot in his games at Coors Field, that ballpark elevating his batting average and counting numbers, from an overall angle, he's undisciplined enough at the plate that his .274 average last year might be high. He walked only 3.1 percent of the time last year, and opposing pitchers exploited the weakness in September, when he batted .197/.248/.288. Let that prevent your expectations from spiraling out of control, but among the cheaper middle-infield options, Rutledge is one to watch.
20. Zack Cozart, Cin SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics561721535311134.246.288.399.687492
2013 Projections5847218613311310.259.300.421.721573
2013 Outlook: On the surface, Cozart's 2012 campaign looks disappointing as his average and steals were below expectations, though 15 homers helped ease the pain. However, Cozart's low average was the result of some misfortune, as he stroked line drives at a rate above league average, but was not rewarded with hits. Sorry, there's only so many ways to say a hitter was unlucky. Expect a higher average this time around. The lack of steals, however, is a little curious since Cozart has some speed and was perfect on his only four attempts. If Cozart is your middle infielder, you'll be fine. But since there is a good chance he goes undrafted in some mixed leagues, he is the perfect insurance if you take a shot at Troy Tulowitzki or Jose Reyes early. He won't replace them, obviously, but there is some upside.
21. Jed Lowrie, Oak SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics34043164243652.244.331.438.769379
2013 Projections44864206850824.268.342.469.811544
2013 Outlook: Scooped up by the Athletics in a January trade to provide a fallback -- and more than likely starter somewhere -- at three infield positions, Lowrie is a risk/reward player in fantasy baseball if we've ever seen one. Let's first talk risk: He has never appeared in more than 134 games in a single year as a pro, averaging 97 per season, for a myriad of ailments. Now, the reward, which requires a bit of speculation: He has .250/.326/.417 rates and 16-homer, 73-RBI averages per 162 games in the bigs, but what's most attractive is his penchant for walks and putting the ball in the air. Lowrie has a 10.1 percent walk rate, boosting his appeal in points-based and on-base percentage leagues. He also has a 53.6 percent fly ball rate since 2009, and Josh Reddick's 2012 owners can tell you about the kind of power upside of a player with that rate. Anyone picking Lowrie is taking a big, big chance. But considering the price, he's a smart, speculative middle-infield pick.
22. Jean Segura, Mil SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics1511901413237.258.315.325.640128
2013 Projections52655544259726.245.284.327.611402
2013 Outlook: It's better to regard Segura for what he might become rather than what he was in 45 games for the Brewers following his midsummer 2012 acquisition in the Zack Greinke deal. He was widely regarded as one of the better shortstop prospects in baseball at the time of the deal, having batted .294/.346/.404 with 33 stolen bases in 94 games for Double-A Arkansas, those numbers providing a hint of his future fantasy upside as a hit-for-average, 30-40 steal performer. But to be realistic about Segura's immediate future, increased patience would be a virtue, best evidenced by his having swung 50 percent of the time at non-strikes when he fell into a pitcher's count. He needs to grow as a batsman, with the prospect of 25-plus steals effectively the only reason he's a late-round consideration in 2013, and be aware that he faces competition for at-bats in both Jeff Bianchi and Alex Gonzalez.
23. Jhonny Peralta, Det SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics531581363491051.239.305.384.689487
2013 Projections535661778481001.264.323.426.749566
2013 Outlook: Peralta followed his career-best 2011 campaign with his worst season in the bigs, suggesting 2011 was an outlier buoyed by good fortune. A small bounceback is likely, so if you pass on the iron at shortstop, Peralta makes for a reasonable option later. You'll need to buffer his average and look for speed elsewhere, but Peralta should be able to knock in some teammates and score in a potent Tiger attack.
24. Stephen Drew, Bos SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics2873872837761.223.309.348.657235
2013 Projections473681257551086.258.335.412.747480
2013 Outlook: Drew was searching for a team to let him audition for a season and the Red Sox happily obliged. He is looking to get his career back on track after missing significant time each of the past two seasons. Once thought of a guy with moderate power and sneaky speed, Drew needs to improve on his contact rate if he wants a shot at rebounding. Many feel the move to Boston will rejuvenate Drew's career and it is worth a late dart-throw to find out. Just be ready to bail if your toss misses the board.
25. Billy Hamilton, Cin SS, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics------------------------
2013 Projections14119110133823.241.303.319.622118
2013 Outlook: Hamilton is arguably the speediest player in all of professional baseball. He's coming off a 2012 season during which he set an all-time, single-season pro record with 165 stolen bases, and in 379 career minor league games he has 320 steals. That's the kind of speed that could push Hamilton into the top 25 players overall in fantasy during his prime; for 2013 he's likely to spend the year in Triple-A adapting to his new position of center field. He might see time with the Reds later in the year, making him an instant pickup even if he's a one-category performer initially.
26. Dee Gordon, LAD SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics30338117206232.228.280.281.561216
2013 Projections28035015145123.243.282.293.575200
2013 Outlook: Gordon, predictably, fell back to earth in 2012 after a brief, brilliant late-season run the year before. His blazing speed continued to be an asset in fantasy leagues even in a down year -- his 32 stolen bases were 13th-most in the majors despite his appearing in only 87 games -- but his free-swinging ways, coupled with his complete lack of power, led to awful numbers in terms of batting average (.228) and on-base percentage (.280). With Hanley Ramirez recovering from thumb surgery, Gordon might again get a full-time place to play in his absence, at least at the season's onset. Gordon might be a slightly better player than the one we saw last season - his batting average on balls in play was just .281 -- but to be clear, he's a one-category rotisserie option without a promise of at-bats. Grant this kid 120 games and he might swipe 50 bags, but it'll be difficult for him to maintain that large a role considering his weak bat.
27. Yunel Escobar, TB SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5585895135705.253.300.344.644472
2013 Projections54869115450687.268.333.376.709535
2013 Outlook: Escobar won't win your league for you, but he won't lose it for you, either. He makes excellent contact, then it's up to fate on batted balls. To wit, Escobar's contact rate and distribution of line drives, grounders and fly balls was virtually identical the past two seasons; however, in 2011, he hit a lofty .290 as opposed to a disappointing .253 in 2012. Escobar is moving from the Rogers Centre, a favorable venue, to Tropicana Field, which depresses offense, so a slight drop in his already marginal power is likely.
28. Eduardo Nunez*, NYY SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics891411161211.292.330.393.723101
2013 Projections32138431184623.259.297.346.643290
2013 Outlook: Billed "Derek Jeter's eventual successor" a few years back, Nunez has shown in brief snippets with the Yankees that he lacks the glove to man Jeter's traditional shortstop position. (And considering Jeter's own limited defensive skills, that's saying a lot.) Nunez appears ticketed for a utility role with the 2013 Yankees, but that's an important role, being that every one of their projected infield starters is beyond his 30th birthday, not to mention that the team lacks anyone who can be firmly considered an every-day designated hitter. He'll get his at-bats, and he makes consistent enough contact to hit for a solid average, fueling a healthy enough stolen-base total to be meaningful in AL-only leagues.
29. Cliff Pennington, Ari SS, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics41850628359015.215.278.311.589304
2013 Projections47356741429818.241.304.345.648392
2013 Outlook: The Diamondbacks acquired Pennington as part of the deal sending Chris Young to Oakland, ostensibly to be the everyday shortstop. Then Arizona acquired Didi Gregorius, announcing he would be given the chance to win the job, perhaps as rationalization for parting with former prized prospect Trevor Bauer in the swap. Now factor in Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald, and Pennington's playing time is in doubt. If it appears Gregorius will win the job, don't summarily ignore Pennington as his cost will be next to nothing and there is a good chance Gregorius scuffles and is sent down or Pennington could be dealt to a team where he gets decent playing time and provides some cheap steals.
30. Maicer Izturis, Tor 3B, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics28935220253817.256.320.315.634243
2013 Projections40347433335315.261.323.347.670359
2013 Outlook: There are a handful of players who, despite playing a lot and getting a decent number of at-bats, you just don't know when, where or how many at-bats are coming their way. Izturis heads that list. Players of this ilk are gold in deep leagues since you can move them around different positions, but they are better suited as reserves in mixed formats. If he lands a regular gig, and second base is open (with Emilio Bonifacio as his main competition), Izturis could even help mixed teams as a late pickup.
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