Complete 2014 Projections

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PROJECTED 2014 SEASON STATS
1. Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B, 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics5551034413790943.348.442.6361.078
2014 Projections5951034412785993.328.413.6081.021
2014 Outlook: Arguably the most skilled hitter in the game today, Cabrera in 2013 came within a Chris Davis power surge -- specifically within nine home runs and one RBI of Davis -- of a second consecutive Triple Crown, something no player in baseball history has done. Cabrera's elite and balanced numbers in those three categories, which comprise three-fifths of the standard rotisserie departments, are unrivaled: He has led all major leaguers in batting average in two of the past three years (2011 and 2013), RBIs in two of the past four (2010 and 2012), and home runs in 2012; and in the past five seasons combined he batted seven points higher, hit 17 more homers and drove in 52 more runs than anyone else. What's more, Cabrera's performance last year is all the more remarkable if you consider that he played visibly hurt the final four months, an injury that required "core muscle repair" surgery in October. Despite this, he missed only 13 of the Detroit Tigers' final 89 games (playoffs included), batting .306/.402/.552 with 21 homers and 62 RBIs in that span. If Cabrera has a weakness, it's his defense, but even that might no longer be so damaging to his Wins Above Replacement (WAR) now that he's returning to first base following the Prince Fielder trade. Cabrera makes a compelling first or second overall pick, regardless of format. Stephania Bell: Cabrera is back on track to start the season despite last fall's surgery, and from a physical-demand standpoint, the move to first base can only help.
2. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics63188309250781.315.371.509.880
2014 Projections630923510243791.314.361.540.901
2014 Outlook: At a position with many popular, occasionally overrated name brands, Beltre is an "old reliable." Fact: He is the only third baseman to have managed at least a .275 batting average, 25 home runs and 75 RBIs in each of the past three seasons, and be aware that he has easily eclipsed those numbers, with a .312-33-100 average stat line during that three-year span. While it might not seem as if he's the class of the position, those statistics should cement it, and despite his 34 years of age he's in a tremendous situation in which to potentially repeat (or exceed) those numbers. Beltre garners a benefit from hitting-friendly Rangers Ballpark -- his wOBA there is 61 points higher there than on the road in his three years with the Texas Rangers -- and the team fortified its lineup by adding Shin-Soo Choo this winter, potentially improving Beltre's RBI stock. Other than his 2004 outlier, it took him 13 seasons (until his 2010 with the Boston Red Sox) to develop into a fantasy superstar, but that's simply what he is today.
Stephania Bell: Calf and hamstring injuries have been a theme for Beltre over the past three years. However, he's missed just a handful of games in the past two seasons combined. At 34, can he will his legs through another 150-plus games?
Addendum (3/12): Manager Ron Washington said he plans to use Beltre in a DH role more often, particularly when day games follow night games, to help preserve his health.
3. Evan Longoria, TB 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics614913288701621.269.343.498.842
2014 Projections5949436106741443.274.355.527.882
2014 Outlook: Even the injury-prone can have the most miraculously healthy of seasons, as Longoria did in 2013. He set career highs with 160 games played and 693 plate appearances, despite playing through a case of plantar fasciitis in June. Longoria's 2013 was spot-on to his career rates; he batted .269/.343/.498 with a .355 weighted on-base average and 32 home runs, and he's a career .275/.357/.512 hitter with a .371 wOBA and an average of 33 homers per 162 games played. In short, what you see is what you get, and any hesitation drafting him should be your confidence he can repeat as healthy a year. Nevertheless, Longoria should remain one of the first third basemen off your draft board.
4. Josh Donaldson, Oak 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics579892493761105.301.384.499.883
2014 Projections568892594671178.280.359.479.838
2014 Outlook: One of 2013's biggest breakout stories, Donaldson's success dates back to the final month of 2012, a small hint that he might not be mere one-year wonder. From 2010-13, he played a near identical number of games at both the Triple-A (252) and major-league levels (247), and look at how similar his numbers: .270/.354/.486 rates in Triple-A, .277/.350/.460 in the majors. Those batting averages do show potential for regression, but in Donaldson's defense, his walk-rate gains last season give hope it'll be minimal, while his power probably shouldn't suffer. He's a player who succeeded as a result of growth, not some fluky result, and it's time to trust him as a building block in all scoring formats, targeting him in the early rounds.
5. Kyle Seager, Sea 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics615792269681229.260.338.426.764
2014 Projections6057725846211811.273.345.458.802
2014 Outlook: Even with the fence adjustments at Safeco Field last season, Seager still couldn't capitalize in terms of power, and it's worth a debate as to whether he'd vault into the upper tier of fantasy third basemen if he wasn't a member of the Seattle Mariners. His road numbers are tantalizing: He's a .289/.345/.491 hitter, including 32 of his 45 career home runs, away from Safeco, but, at the same time, those facts, coupled with his 53-point career wOBA split between lefties and righties (favoring the side against right-handers), seem to place Seager more in the "matchups" than "breakout candidate" bin. That said, he's a fourth-year big leaguer aged 26, meaning his prime years have arrived, and the Mariners' lineup should be better in 2014 than 2013, supporting his runs/RBIs. It's not unthinkable that Seager could gain more consistency with experience. He's an attractive bargain bet.
6. Carlos Santana, Cle C, 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics541752074931103.268.377.455.832
2014 Projections542792583961113.262.373.470.844
2014 Outlook: Ah, the possibilities. Santana enters a 2014 of change: He's catcher-eligible in fantasy leagues, but all indications are that the Cleveland Indians will move him off the position -- probably to designated hitter -- though he did dabble in some third base in winter ball. Chances are he'll be a catcher-eligible player who experiences a games played/plate appearances bump as a regular elsewhere on the diamond; such players gain an advantage because of the result on their counting numbers. Santana has made small gains in terms of making contact in each of the past two seasons, and he has always had underrated power. Might a new position help him finally reach the 30-homer plateau? It's that prospect which keeps him high in the catcher ranks, and those in leagues that reward walks or on-base percentage should be especially intrigued.
7. Brett Lawrie*, Tor 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics40141114630689.254.315.397.712
2014 Projections529741865429816.280.340.456.796
2014 Outlook: In 2013, Lawrie battled through assorted injuries (ribs, oblique, ankle) as well as a brief position change to second base, yet he managed to improve his skills, albeit marginally. Lawrie fanned less and walked more than 2012, hitting the same number of homers in 78 fewer plate appearances. Still just 24 years old, Lawrie has plenty of time to realize the potential many thought he possessed when he was a top prospect in the Milwaukee Brewers' organization. To do so, other than health, he could stand to take a few more walks and hit a few more balls in the air, as a fly-ball rate below 35 percent caps his homers in the high teens. Injuries may be to blame, but Lawrie's stolen base success rate also needs some polish. The term post-hype sleeper is a bit cliché, but Lawrie fits the profile. The skills are still there, health permitting.
8. Manny Machado, Bal 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics667881471291136.283.314.432.746
2014 Projections599821774351109.285.327.454.781
2014 Outlook: For a little more than a calendar year in the big leagues -- three-plus as a professional -- Machado appeared a youngster with limitless upside; entering last September, he had batted .297/.328/.465 with 46 doubles as a 20-to21-year-old major leaguer (he turned 21 last July 6). Even more remarkably, he appeared in every one of his first 212 scheduled Baltimore Orioles games (playoffs included) through last Sept. 22, sitting only six innings total during that time. Unfortunately, a nasty knee injury on Sept. 23 ended his year prematurely, requiring an Oct. 14 surgery to repair the medial patellofemoral ligament in his left knee and setting a projected six-month rehabilitation timetable that would have placed his return around mid-April. All indications during Machado's winter rehab, however, were glowing, and many hints were dropped that he'd beat that projection and make the Opening Day lineup. His health bears watching during spring training, and a somewhat conservative approach -- in redraft leagues, that is, as his dynasty-league potential remains massive -- to his draft-day stock and early-season expectations is warranted. But considering Machado has already tasted success over an extended big league period, and should only regain strength as the year progresses, he's a possible value due to the injury question. He's a mid-rounder in mixed leagues, and one well worth an in-season trade inquiry if you don't land him on draft day.
Stephania Bell: Machado expects offseason's knee surgery to pay off in the long term, even if it delays his 2014 start. Whether it's April or May, he expects to start strong.
Addendum (3/12): Machado continues to exceed expectations. He has added running to first base and his confidence landing on the bag has him closer to game play. The next visit with his surgeon could result in full clearance which will then help determine how far he remains from a return to the lineup.
9. Chase Headley, NYY 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics520591350671428.250.347.400.747
2014 Projections5567718797414212.273.365.446.811
2014 Outlook: After hitting 23 homers after the All-Star break in 2012, much was expected from Headley last season. Upon closer inspection, the switch hitter pulled the majority of those homers right down both lines, so a repeat was optimistic, especially if Headley did not reverse his trend of hitting fewer fly balls. As it turns out, Headley continued to hit an abundance of grounders, which capped his power. Clouding our projection is the fact that Headley played the bulk of the season with a torn meniscus, which is now healed. It's a bit of a leap of faith, but with a healthy knee, Headley should loft more homers as well as return to double-digit steals.
10. Will Middlebrooks*, Bos 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics34841174920983.227.271.425.696
2014 Projections519622687321436.254.299.451.750
2014 Outlook: Middlebrooks' 2013 will surely be characterized as a disappointment for two specific reasons: (1) His batting average plummeted 61 points and (2) he took a seat in favor of Xander Bogaerts for substantial portions of last year's playoffs, casting some doubt upon his immediate future in Boston. When spring training camp opened, however, Middlebrooks stood alone as the Boston Red Sox's projected starting third baseman, with Bogaerts at shortstop, and that should classify him as a possible bargain pick. Middlebrooks is the type of free-swinging, decent-pop bat that has a place in rotisserie leagues, where his streakiness isn't as detrimental to a team. That said, do understand that he has limitations in points-based scoring as a result. He's a value selection if you can lock him into a corner-infield spot in the former.
11. Xander Bogaerts, Bos 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics447155131.250.320.364.684
2014 Projections495741566601408.279.361.451.811
2014 Outlook: Though he faced an uphill battle in his attempt to crack the Boston Red Sox's lineup last season, Bogaerts eventually succeeded: He moved off his natural shortstop position to third base, emerging in mid-August as an effective utility player, and then elevated himself to the team's hot-corner starter by the World Series. And as spring training dawned, 2013 starting shortstop Stephen Drew remained a free agent; Bogaerts appeared ticketed for regular duty there in 2014. As one of the most polished hitters in the minors -- he was Keith Law's No. 5 prospect overall entering last year -- Bogaerts could thrive in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, and, with a committed role, could also add significant runs, RBIs and a hint of pop. He's an initial third-base-eligible player who should quickly restore shortstop to his list, the dual eligibility another trait to boost his bargain-bet appeal. Don't let Bogaerts slip too far in redraft; plus, he's potentially one of the best youngsters to get in dynasty/keeper leagues.
12. Nick Castellanos, Det OF, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics18100010.278.278.278.556
2014 Projections457501144381074.239.299.365.664
2014 Outlook: After a year experimenting in left field, Castellanos is expected to return to third base this season, where he'll be a candidate to start after Prince Fielder was traded and Miguel Cabrera shifted to first base. The Detroit Tigers' top hitting prospect, Castellanos batted .276/.343/.450 with 18 home runs in 134 games for Triple-A Toledo in 2013, supporting scouts' claims that he should hit for both average and power in the bigs. He'll presumably need time to adapt to the tougher level of competition, but numbers within range of his 2013 are possible should he make the team, making him an AL-only asset worth a look in deeper mixed leagues.
13. Kelly Johnson*, NYY OF, 1B, 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics36641165235997.235.305.410.715
2014 Projections4235420574812311.243.324.430.755
2014 Outlook: Signed by the New York Yankees as a stopgap solution at either second or third base -- remember that they lost Robinson Cano to free agency and Alex Rodriguez to a season-long suspension -- Johnson is a hitter who fits the confines of Yankee Stadium. He's a left-handed pull hitter who had a 46.3 percent fly-ball rate in 2013, making him quite the attractive daily-league target. Although Johnson lacks the obvious platoon split that would lock him into such a role, the Yankees will more than likely pick and choose his games, most of them against right-handers, so understand that his fantasy potential is probably capped as AL-only or deep-mixed material.
14. David Freese, LAA 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics46253960471061.262.340.381.721
2014 Projections466591468471112.279.353.429.782
2014 Outlook: The Angels are hoping Freese can bounce back from an off year that saw his power and average both take a nosedive. Fueling the power decline was a career high 55 percent ground ball rate more conducive to a speedy middle infielder than a third baseman expected to be a run producer. Freese also incurred some regression to his BABIP, which was not unexpected after consecutive seasons over .350. Freese's history portends a better 2014, but unless he hits fewer grounders, his homer number is capped in the low teens.
15. Mike Moustakas, KC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2013 Statistics47242124232832.233.287.364.651
2014 Projections503511965351015.252.305.425.731
2014 Outlook: Moustakas' junior year in the majors was a disaster, as practically every one of his offensive rates suffered a steep decline. He gained in only one regard: His 16.1 percent strikeout rate was a healthy improvement from 2012's 20.2 percent. Unfortunately, that doesn't mount much of a case for a Moustakas rebound, and after a year of struggles against left-handers, he could fall into a straight platoon with winter acquisition Danny Valencia. Moustakas is still a power-oriented bat, and with proper adjustments, he could again post 20-plus home runs. But he's more of a speculative AL-only rotisserie pick than one to target in other scoring formats.