Complete 2016 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2016 SEASON STATS
16. Matt Duffy*, SF 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics573771277309612.295.334.428.762
2016 Projections567741069359914.279.325.395.720
2016 Outlook: While Duffy doesn't provide the pop from the hot corner that many covet, he profiles as a batting average booster, relying on a solid contact rate in tandem with a high percentage of hard-hit balls. Unless he changes his batted ball distribution to put more in the air, his power will be capped to the high single digits with a low-teens ceiling. That said, Duffy is a very smart baserunner, exemplified by an excellent stolen base success rate, which bodes well for more running. Duffy is a player that can't be drafted blindly, but those in need of some batting average with a smattering of swipes could do worse than sliding him into corner or even third base.
17. Josh Harrison, Pit 3B, 2B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics41857428197110.287.327.390.717
2016 Projections523751051248316.287.327.432.759
2016 Outlook: Harrison couldn't live up to his excellent 2014, and even giving him a break for the torn thumb that cost him over a month doesn't really help because he was actually better after the injury. He just wasn't the hitter we saw in 2014. The .353 BABIP regressed as many expected, but it wasn't that substantial and definitely not the issue behind his drop-off. He lost a full 100 points off of his slugging percentage and his 3.4 percent HR/FB rate was 21st lowest among 211 batters to log at least 400 plate appearances. Some of that might've been bad luck, but he also pulled the ball a lot less and hit fewer fly balls. The Pirates are undaunted, clearing the path for Harrison to have a guaranteed spot with the trade of Neil Walker. It's a solid lineup and he should regularly be near the top of it.
18. Mike Moustakas*, KC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics54973228243761.284.348.470.817
2016 Projections55072207642821.267.328.436.764
2016 Outlook: The 27-year-old enjoyed a breakout season for the World Series champs, establishing a slew of personal bests along the way. He broke the 20-homer barrier for the first time since 2012, with a career-high 22 homers while also tallying high-water marks in runs scored (73), hits (156), RBI (82), walks (43), average (.284), OBP (.348), slugging (.470) and OPS (.818). He also played at least 140 games for the third time in the last four campaigns, and encouragingly boosted his batting average against both lefties and righties. The most drastic boost came against southpaws, with Moustakas improving his average over 100 points, to .282. His average against righties shot up over 60 points in its own right, to .286, and the overall improvement was also evident in his outstanding 86 percent contact rate and his reduction (for the fourth consecutive season) in strikeout rate, down to 12.4 percent in 2015.
19. Howie Kendrick, LAD 2B, 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics4646495427826.295.336.409.746
2016 Projections560731066341037.282.327.396.723
2016 Outlook: While Kendrick may be a boring player to own in fantasy, he is certainly entertaining to observe statistically. Over the past five seasons, his batting average has very little variance and he's hit over .290 for the last three seasons. He's either scored more than 85 runs or fewer than 65 in that same five year span and he's stolen either six or 14 bases depending on the year. He's back with the Dodgers on a two-year deal as the free agent market did not work out like he hoped, and projecting Kendrick is one of the easiest projections to do any offseason. He'll hit for a good average and provide owners with a little bit in the counting categories, but not enough in any one of them to make any significant impact. A second baseman in his 30s rarely surprises statistically, so unless he mimics what Brandon Phillips did in 2015, it will be another bland season from Kendrick in 2016.
20. Nick Castellanos, Det 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics549421573391520.255.303.419.721
2016 Projections556641874421381.270.320.441.761
2016 Outlook: The jury remains out on the former top prospect entering his age-24 season. Castellanos' first couple seasons at the major league level have yielded below-replacement-level results, but he made some improvements down the stretch last year that lend hope to a leap forward in 2016. By laying off more pitches out of the zone and swinging less often in general, Castellanos improved his contact rate while adding power. He hit nine home runs after the All-Star break last year, three more than he had in the first half in 61 fewer plate appearances. Castellanos could still stand to be more patient at the plate, but if he can maintain his adjustments from last year, the home run total and batting average could improve considerably. Even a modest improvement could push Castellanos near the top-12 among third baseman. Simply put, there's plenty of reason to buy in on Castellanos at his current cost.
21. Pedro Alvarez, Bal 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics437602777481312.243.318.469.787
2016 Projections490672881461454.253.319.471.791
2016 Outlook: Alvarez has entered Mark Reynolds territory as a three-true-outcomes player at the plate who is brutal in the field, and that reputation limited his employment opportunities this offseason. He finally found a home in Baltimore two weeks into spring training, and is likely to serve as the primary designated hitter for the Orioles, pushing Mark Trumbo to right field. The 29-year-old Alvarez has plenty of power, but also has large holes in his swing, and is downright terrible against lefties for his career (.203/.270/.332). If platooned properly, he could easily hit 20 homers with a higher batting average. Itís a good thing if he only sees 450-475 at bats in 2016, because if the average does indeed improve, that makes the power more rosterable.
22. Danny Valencia, Oak 3B, OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics34559186629802.290.345.519.864
2016 Projections45561197931992.275.320.473.792
2016 Outlook: The 31-year-old third baseman had a career year in 2015 splitting time between Toronto and Oakland. Long thought of as a platoon player who crushed southpaws, Valencia will have a chance to prove he is worthy of playing every day for the A's this season. He significantly upped his groundball rate to 52.4 percent after failing to top 45 percent in any of the previous three seasons, so the batting average gains could be real. However, it seems pretty obvious that his increased power numbers are unsustainable after posting a 22.2 percent HR/FB, which was more than double his career mark of 10.8 percent. The nice thing about Valencia is he will still come cheap in drafts, and simply batting in the middle of the A's lineup should allow him to offer up respectable production from a corner infield spot.
23. David Wright*, NYM 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics1522451722362.289.379.434.814
2016 Projections42965114346909.277.350.420.770
2016 Outlook: From 2005 to 2010, Wright played 144 or more games in each season as a five-category stud at the hot corner. In the past five seasons, he's averaged 108 games played per year and watched his fantasy-relevant numbers crumble even on a per-game basis. Over the past two seasons, he has combined for just 13 homers, 10 steals, 78 runs and 80 RBI in 172 combined games. Wright has been battling his aging body for years now (it was a persistent back issue in 2015), and he always seems to be one play away from the next physical breakdown. The various ailments have eroded his skills when on the field, and though Wright calmed the persistent back pain to a manageable level of pain tolerance last season, the impact on his batting line was still felt by fantasy managers everywhere. He will certainly be penciled into a starting gig at third base and likely a friendly spot in the batting order for the NL champion Mets, but a contingency plan may need to be executed in short order.
24. Hector Olivera, Atl 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics7942115120.253.310.405.715
2016 Projections54647115223750.253.295.385.679
25. Chase Headley, NYY 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics580741162511350.259.324.369.693
2016 Projections564721366561373.259.334.385.719
2016 Outlook: The glory days have passed Headley in the wink of an eye. The last three seasons of Headley's body of work looked very much like the work he posted before that outlier year of 2012. His Iisolated power has been between 110 and 150 every season except for 212 outlier in 2012. Last year, his groundball-to-flyball ratio and his flyball rates were identical to what he did in 2012, but the outcomes in cozier Yankee Stadium were much less than what they were in Petco. The type of consistency Headley has displayed around the outlier season in 2012 is incredibly boring for fantasy players, but there is safety with consistency. Draft the boring track record and hope for more.
26. Luis Valbuena, Hou 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics434622556501061.224.310.438.748
2016 Projections437692254571021.243.335.449.784
2016 Outlook: The 30-year-old slugger is expected to receive everday playing time between the corner infield spots in 2016. Valbuena exploded for a career-high 25 homers in his first season in an Astros uniform along with a career-high in RBI (56), though the power did fall off in the second half. He offers a combination of elevated strikeout and walk rates along with above-average power, giving him the label of a "three true outcomes" player. Valbuena's success rates against pitchers of either handedness went down in 2015, and he was particularly inept against southpaws (.158 average). With another season as a lineup regular ahead, Valbuena projects a slugger with some warts, who can nevertheless serve as a decent source of power while playing half of his games at hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.
27. Martin Prado, Mia 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics5005296337681.288.338.394.732
2016 Projections51754106935672.288.336.404.740
2016 Outlook: Prado fell below double-digit home runs for the first time since 2008 last year thanks to a sprained right shoulder that cost him a month of time. Thankfully, it didn't seem to hamper him after returning, as his power output actually jumped up and he played some of his best baseball down the stretch. Prado remains a fantastic batting-average asset. He isn't necessarily a huge plus, but he's a great stabilizer available late in the draft. Batting average is very rarely available late, but there's Prado with his .291 career average and just one full season under a .282 average. Oh, and we're letting ourselves get fooled by the Marlins again this year, so let's go ahead and pretend his runs and RBIs will jump up, too, until they inevitably disappoint by June.
28. Yasmany Tomas, Ari OF, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics40640948171105.273.305.401.707
2016 Projections496481257211326.266.298.391.689
2016 Outlook: Tomas got off to a decent start in his MLB career, hitting .300 or better in each of his first three months and even posting an .850 OPS in June. But for as good as those first three months were, his last three were equally bad. After hitting .301 with a .797 OPS through June, Tomas managed just a .227 average and .606 OPS the rest of the way. Unsurprisingly, his season was heavily influenced by BABIP; his .391 BABIP through June spurred the early success and the fact that it included a ton of singles further took the air out of his numbers. Through June, Tomas posted a 25 percent extra-base rate. He actually had a 32 percent rate in the second half of the season (the league average was 34 percent). There isn't much punch, the batting average couldn't maintain and his plate discipline is poor with too many strikeouts and not nearly enough walks. At 25 years old, he can improve, but the ceiling is limited here.
29. Eugenio Suarez, Cin SS, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics37242134817944.280.315.446.761
2016 Projections528581659381298.244.301.394.695
2016 Outlook: Suarez wasn't heralded when he was traded from Detroit to Cincinnati in the Alfredo Simon deal, but he might've been a hidden gem acquired for a fifth starter-type. The 24 year old held his own and then some for nearly 400 plate appearances and gave the Reds enough confidence to trade superstar Todd Frazier with the idea of slotting Suarez in his stead. Suarez never displayed any singular standout tool coming up, but just did a bit of everything, which is more than enough when you can capably play shortstop, second and third base. Don't get caught up in the extrapolation game and expect 20 homers from Suarez, but a best-case scenario could have him pushing that figure. His .341 BABIP was on the high end (fouth-highest among shortstops with at least 350 PA), but his .327 BABIP in the minors suggests that he might be someone who can maintain a mark north of league average.
30. Jhonny Peralta, StL SS, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2015 Statistics579641771501111.275.334.411.745
2016 Projections2302783221471.274.337.435.772
2016 Outlook: Normally, older players display stable skills. That is not the case with Peralta. Last season, his ground-ball rate and fly-ball rate reverted back to levels he showed in the aughts, and yet he still ended up with 17 home runs. There is something to be said about playing nearly every day, because as his homer total only declined by four, his Isolated Power fell from .180 to .136. Peralta has played nearly every day since 2006 and piled up the at-bats, but that will all change in 2016, as he underwent surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament in March and is slated to miss most, if not all, of the seasonís first half. That takes him off the draft radar in most formats, and upon his return, Peralta will remain at the mercy of the BABIP gods; his power totals are going to be held down if he canít loft the ball more.