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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
16. Ryan Howard, Phi 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics26028145625990.219.295.423.718
2013 Projections5257634108601601.259.340.510.851
2013 Outlook: It is a dangerous thing to put too much stock into Howard's 2012 statistics, being that he was recovering from a torn Achilles suffered the previous October, and was probably never truly 100 percent all year. That said, Howard's downward trends in terms of OPS are troubling; his number in that category has declined in each of the past three seasons and his strikeout rate has risen in each of the past two. Howard was also flustered by left-handed pitchers, batting just .173/.226/.378 against them, making him a matchups consideration in shallow mixed leagues with daily transactions. There's no question that, at age 33, he is on the declining phase of his career curve. However, even accounting for that, Howard remains capable of 30-homer power, and as a heart-of-the-order Phillies hitter, he might get back to 100 RBIs. If he can only strike fear into opposing pitchers once more, he should also recapture some of the walks he lost in 2012, which would increase his value in leagues that count on-base percentage. Give him another chance to put forth one more big power year, because at least there was an explanation for last season.
17. Adam LaRoche, Wsh 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5717633100671381.271.343.510.853
2013 Projections547762997621322.280.350.503.853
2013 Outlook: LaRoche obviously missed the memo. Everyone knows players returning from surgery to repair a torn labrum and rotator cuff always struggle, especially with power. And certainly, there is no way they set a career high in homers. If you took a chance on LaRoche last season, congratulations. If you reluctantly settled on him, drinks are on you. While a repeat of last season's power outburst is unlikely, there is no reason not to once again consider LaRoche a viable Plan B if you pass on the upper-echelon first basemen. In fact, there is even a little upside in batting average if LaRoche maintains his improved contact rate.
18. Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics525643085571801.244.317.467.784
2013 Projections544693291611832.250.326.480.806
2013 Outlook: Alvarez will never be mistaken for a batting champion, but in terms of sheer power, he's one of the more overlooked sources. After a horrific 2011 in which he batted .191 and whiffed 30.5 percent of the time he came to the plate, the 26-year-old closed some of the many holes in his swing, soaring to personal bests in homers (30), RBIs (85) and slugging percentage (.467). The most notable improvement was his handling of breaking pitches; he improved by 142 points in OPS and hit nine homers against curves and sliders last season despite seeing 7 percent more of them compared to 2011. In fact, he batted .266 with six of those homers against them after the All-Star break alone. Those bode well for Alvarez's chances at another big-power-at-low-cost campaign, but he's also among the leading contenders for the major league strikeout crown, meaning he's a liability in batting average in rotisserie leagues or in points-based formats that penalize for strikeouts.
19. David Freese, StL 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics501702079571223.293.372.467.839
2013 Projections481631775491142.289.362.447.809
2013 Outlook: Saddled with the injury-prone label, Freese quieted some of his critics by playing in a career-high 144 games last season. Considering many of Freese's woes were fluke and not chronic, it's reasonable to expect another season devoid of major health issues. Performance-wise, Freese produced exactly as expected and can be counted on for more of the same with one cautionary note. Freese sports a BABIP significantly above league average, although it is supported by a strong line-drive rate. However, with players of this nature, there is more downside than upside. The good thing is even though Freese was injury-free last season, his market value reflects some residual health concern, so you have a built-in performance hedge. And if he stays healthy, you get a positive return on your investment.
20. Todd Frazier, Cin 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics422551967361033.273.331.498.829
2013 Projections485652370401229.266.326.485.811
2013 Outlook: A late-season, dark-horse candidate for National League Rookie of the Year honors, Frazier wound up overshadowed in the voting results by Bryce Harper's historic campaign, the result his burgeoning power perhaps being underrated entering 2013. He made tremendous strides in terms of his contact and fly ball rates, his contact rate improving to 79 percent after the All-Star break and his 47.4 fly ball percentage for the full year seventh-highest among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Frazier also lacked any discernible home/road or lefty/righty splits, meaning he's a player who deserves a chance to strut his stuff every day. Aye, that's the rub: The Reds brought in defensive whiz Jack Hannahan to provide hot-corner competition, and Joey Votto should be healthy enough to man first base every day. Frazier might cede a decent chunk of at-bats again in 2013, though NL-only owners who take cheaper shots on blossoming skills would do well to target him once the upper tier of third basemen are off the board.
21. Corey Hart*, Mil 1B, RFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics562913083441515.270.334.507.841
2013 Projections475782470421174.278.344.507.851
2013 Outlook: On the surface, Hart is a power hitter with a good-but-not-great batting average, hence a solid target if you need homers. Buyer beware, however, as he is an extreme ground-ball hitter with average speed and a high strikeout rate. Plus, he's coming off knee surgery that threatens to sideline him for the first several weeks of the season. But when Hart hits the ball, he hits it very hard and often far. This is the sort of profile you don't chase as the downside is greater than the upside. Fortunately, you usually don't have to chase him. If you can get Hart at a discount, we're back to where we started -- a power hitter with a good-but-not-great batting average and dual eligibility.
22. Michael Young, Phi 1B, 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6117986733702.277.312.370.682
2013 Projections60780107839723.292.331.409.740
2013 Outlook: After 12 years in Texas, Young moves to the Senior Circuit where he will return full time to the hot corner after serving as a utility man for the Rangers the past couple of seasons. He takes with him an excellent contact rate that has actually improved the past couple of seasons. However, Young's already middling power is rapidly declining and not likely to recover. Not only is Young's ground ball rate more than 50 percent, but contrary to popular belief, Citizens Bank Park depresses right-handed power while Young's old digs embellished it. Young can still be an asset in batting average, but his other production is waning to the point that the veteran is at best a late-game corner man or reserve. The exception is in point leagues, in which Young's lack of strikeouts gives him some sneaky value.
23. Michael Cuddyer*, Col RF, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics35853165832788.260.317.489.806
2013 Projections49972197344877.275.333.469.802
2013 Outlook: From a power perspective, Cuddyer enjoyed the benefit of moving from the cavernous confines of Target Field to the thin air of Coors Field, although a lingering oblique strain cost him the better part of the final two months of the 2012 season. Cuddyer's on-base skills took a bit of a hit, as he fanned more than the previous few seasons and sported a BABIP below his career norm. The Rockies have a logjam at corner outfield and first base, but if healthy, Cuddyer should see regular at-bats. Now that the allure of the move to Colorado isn't artificially inflating his value, Cuddyer isn't a bad end-game target, especially if he can get his contact back to previous levels.
24. Garrett Jones, Pit 1B, RFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics475682786331032.274.317.516.832
2013 Projections488642380431064.264.322.477.799
2013 Outlook: Jones is usually undervalued since every season the talk is that he will see a reduction in playing time. Yet Jones has averaged nearly 500 plate appearances the past two seasons. After swatting a career-high 27 homers in 2012, Jones isn't likely to be undervalued anymore. If someone is willing to pay for last year's numbers, let them. But if he slides again, Jones makes a nice late addition with dual-position eligibility. There isn't much upside, but the downside is minimal.
25. Brandon Belt, SF 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics411477565410612.275.360.421.781
2013 Projections5106114706414310.265.349.424.772
2013 Outlook: It's the old chicken-or-egg debate: Are Belt's struggles over his first two seasons a product of limited playing time, or is it that his struggles continue to persuade Bruce Bochy to keep on the handcuffs? Whichever it is, Belt continues to make tiny advances as a hitter, but his power has fallen considerably short of where it was in the minors -- he belted 24 homers across four levels in 2010 alone. He's a walker, boasting a 10.9 percent rate in his two seasons for the Giants, and he strokes a lot of line drives, sporting a 22.3 percent in 2012. He also lacks a steep platoon split. Last season, he had a .786 OPS against right-handers and .768 versus lefties, meaning this should be the year the Giants finally let him shine as an every-day first baseman. That appears to be the plan for now, and considering Belt's skills make him look like a safe source of batting average, runs and RBIs with a decent contribution in steals, fantasy owners should take a look at him late in the hopes that maybe the power comes.
26. Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics----------------------
2013 Projections450631558371125.256.313.407.720
2013 Outlook: Gyorko, 24, can really hit -- his .319/.385/.529 career slash line in the minors is proof of that -- and he's ready now. However, his natural position is third base, which just so happens to be where Chase Headley, the Padres' best hitter, resides. The alternate route, which San Diego has tried, is to push Gyorko to second, where the only "obstacles" are Logan Forsythe and Alexi Amarista. Barring a Headley trade -- an idea that has been floated -- Gyorko will need to show he can make it work at the "keystone position" this spring. Gyorko's offensive ability makes him extremely attractive as a mixed-league middle-infield starter or reserve second baseman. As a corner outfielder, though, he's less so.
27. Yonder Alonso, SD 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics54947962621013.273.348.393.741
2013 Projections558561472611035.281.353.427.779
2013 Outlook: One of the key pieces in the Mat Latos trade last winter, Alonso put forth mediocre statistics when compared to an average first baseman's -- his .273/.348/.393 rates were eerily close to the majors' .262/.336/.441 positional numbers -- yet he quietly grew enough as a hitter during the summer to be a possible NL-only bargain for 2013. He picked up the pace in the season's second half, sporting .285/.352/.430 rates while boosting his line-drive rate (23.3 percent), contact rate (83 percent) and well-hit average (.246) after the All-Star break. Alonso is one of the lower-risk, late-round picks in NL-only leagues, perhaps due some slight growth in terms of power, runs and RBIs, especially with the Padres shrinking the fences at Petco Park by as much as 10 feet in certain spots in right-center. Tuck this name away if you're trying to fill your first-base/corner-infield spots on the cheap.
28. Matt Carpenter, StL 1B, 2B, 3B, RFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics2964464634631.294.365.463.828
2013 Projections47667116660993.282.363.426.790
2013 Outlook: A potential backup for the Cardinals at five different positions -- the corner infield and outfield spots, as well as second base -- Carpenter is a useful late-rounder for NL-only owners trying to fill out a roster. While he's neither powerful nor speedy enough to be clearly worthy of a chance to start, he's adept enough handling the bat to be one of the team's first options off the bench, not to mention he's worthwhile insurance for Allen Craig at first base. Carpenter's .294 batting average, .365 on-base percentage and 10.3 percent walk rate last season were within range of his lifetime .299/.408/14.5 numbers in the minors, the latter hinting that maybe he has more growth. Don't forget this name late.
29. Logan Morrison*, Mia LF, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics29630113631581.230.308.399.707
2013 Projections522652275641082.257.342.462.803
2013 Outlook: A Twitter aficionado, Morrison almost assuredly had a higher average of tweets per day than total home runs in 2012 -- which was not a positive. Once a player with an intriguing combination of power and patience, he has battled nagging knee problems for more a year, succumbing to surgeries in each of the past two winters. Those have sapped his power, and the latest operation threatens to either cost him a DL stint to begin 2013 or continue to depress his numbers. Morrison's health will need to be closely monitored come camp, but at least he has most of his career ahead of him as well as the promise of every-day at-bats at first base once he heals. He's worth using as a corner infielder in deep mixed or NL-only leagues on the hope he can restore 20-homer power, but don't draft him thinking he comes with no risk.
30. Tyler Colvin, Col RF, 1B, CFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics420621872211177.290.327.531.858
2013 Projections394541558211115.251.289.459.749
2013 Outlook: Assuming Todd Helton is the Opening Day first baseman, Colvin will be his backup, as well as share time in right field with Michael Cuddyer. This isn't going to help a mixed squad, but he will be one injury away from regular playing time, so he is a viable reserve option. Be careful not to put too much credence into last season's .290 average as it was buoyed by a .364 BABIP that is likely to regress. If Colvin does happen upon full-time run, he'll need to cut down on the whiffs to keep the job.
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