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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Albert Pujols, LAA 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		607	85	30	105	52	76	8	.285	.343	.516	.859
	2013 Projections		614	102	34	115	64	68	10	.300	.367	.533	.900
2013 Outlook: Pick your side of the argument: Is Pujols' five-year trend of declining OPS, plus his early-season struggles with the Angels, a sign of his hitting the down slope of his career? Or were Pujols' 2012 first-quarter issues an obvious indication of a league adjustment, and his .310/.373/.584, 27-homer, 87-RBI performance in the final three quarters, a stronger indication that he has plenty left in the tank? In his defense, most of his best career comparables remained superstars through their age-33 seasons, and his Angels did quite a job bolstering his supporting offensive cast when they signed free agent Josh Hamilton. Pujols might no longer be a batting title contender, or perhaps not even a lock for .300, and his new baseline in homers might be closer to 30 than 40, but even at his new levels of production he'll pile up the runs and RBIs. No longer a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, Pujols nevertheless ranks up there with the 10 best in the game.

2. Joey Votto, Cin 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		374	59	14	56	94	85	5	.337	.474	.567	1.041
	2013 Projections		553	95	28	98	117	123	9	.320	.441	.561	1.001
2013 Outlook: Votto last season finally faced adversity for the first time as a big leaguer, succumbing to a pair of knee surgeries, one in July and one in August, that sapped his power following his late-season return. In 30 games, playoffs included, he went 127 plate appearances without a home run, his fly ball rate 33 percent and his at-bats per double 11.8. Compare that to his stats last year before landing on the DL: 14 home runs in 370 PAs, 36 percent fly ball rate, 8.3 at-bats per double. In other words, it'd be nice to see Votto mashing during spring training. But even without that evidence, the winter's rest should've done him some good, he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in one of the best lineups in baseball, and he possesses some of the most balanced splits in the game. Votto has a higher lifetime road (.981) OPS than at home (.954), and his .913 OPS against left-handers the past three seasons ranks No. 1 among left-handed hitters. Why shouldn't we believe he's capable of recapturing his MVP form?

3. Prince Fielder, Det 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		581	83	30	108	85	84	1	.313	.412	.528	.940
	2013 Projections		576	97	35	116	100	99	1	.313	.423	.556	.979
2013 Outlook: One of the game's premier power sources, Fielder's 258 home runs since the beginning of 2006 rank third-best and 754 RBIs fifth-best in the majors. But what has made Fielder, now 28, such a valuable commodity in fantasy is his soaring rate of contact. The son of Cecil Fielder, who had a 22.2 percent career strikeout rate, Prince whiffed a career-low 12.2 percent of the time in 2012, a number his father never came close to attaining. That helped explain his career-best .313 batting average, and it's a skills improvement that might potentially elevate him into the first round in mixed leagues considering he bats in the heart of an improved lineup with Miguel Cabrera, who has a lifetime .395 on-base percentage, slotted ahead of him. Despite playing a deep position, Fielder is the kind of elite slugger worth his price tag.

4. Buster Posey, SF C, 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		530	78	24	103	69	96	1	.336	.408	.549	.957
	2013 Projections		550	76	24	98	67	94	2	.318	.392	.520	.912
2013 Outlook: Few players historically were more obvious choices for Comeback Player of the Year honors than Posey in 2012. Remember, one year ago at this time, our last image of Posey was the nasty home-plate collision with Florida Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins on May 25, 2011, that resulted in a fractured fibula, torn ankle ligaments and serious questions whether Posey could ever return to the daily chores of catching. Return to catching he did, and return to excellence at bat he did. He became the first catcher in 13 seasons to manage at least a .330 batting average, 20 home runs and 100 RBIs, and the result was the National League's MVP award. Again from a historical perspective, Posey's career ascent looks much like that of Mike Piazza, a Hall of Fame candidate: Posey has .314/.380/.503 rates in 308 career games in his first three seasons, while Piazza had .312/.364/.537 in 277 games in his first three. This is a once-in-a-generation catching talent, one who gets enough "time off" at first base to keep him healthy, and one who is so valuable relative to replacement at the position to warrant being one of the first picks off the board.

5. Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		542	93	42	110	84	94	13	.280	.384	.557	.941
	2013 Projections		554	93	36	99	71	92	10	.283	.369	.534	.904
2013 Outlook: Like teammate Jose Bautista two seasons before him, Encarnacion blossomed in the power department during his age-29 campaign. As Bautista did, Encarnacion warmed to hitting coach Dwayne Murphy's "pick your pitch, then swing hard" philosophy, and it helped that he both adjusted his swing and shed 10 pounds before the season, increasing his bat speed. Encarnacion swatted 42 home runs -- 28 of them pulled to left field, another Bautista-esque trait -- in 151 games, four more than he had hit in 2010-11 combined and only eight shy of Bautista's breakout 2010 total albeit in 10 fewer contests. He also maintained his power throughout, hitting 19 homers after the All-Star break and seven in September, though he gave back much of his batting-average gains late, hitting .261 in the second half and .238 in September. Encarnacion's power is legit and his 14.6 percent strikeout rate eases those batting average concerns somewhat. Like Bautista, he should be good for a few more years of power totals that rank among the league's leaders.

6. Billy Butler, KC 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		614	72	29	107	54	111	2	.313	.373	.510	.882
	2013 Projections		609	84	27	107	63	101	2	.320	.385	.516	.901
2013 Outlook: After leading the majors in doubles from 2009-11 combined (140), Butler finally converted some of those into home runs at the age of 26 last season, setting personal bests in homers (29), RBIs (107) and slugging percentage (.510). His transformation coincided with little more than a boost to his home run/fly ball percentage -- his 18.6 rate in the category was also a career high -- meaning he finally got some of the good fortune he deserved on batted balls. That could mean that Butler doesn't have much more room for growth, but is any fantasy owner going to complain about a player practically certain to bat at least .300 with 25 homers? As difficult as this is to believe, only 11 players reached both of those thresholds last season. Butler also barely met the 20-game minimum to qualify at first base in 2013; that's the kind of boost to his value that strengthens his candidacy for a pick in the first few rounds of any draft.

7. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		629	75	18	108	42	110	2	.299	.344	.463	.806
	2013 Projections		625	91	24	109	63	112	1	.307	.372	.499	.871
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez could be one of the toughest reads on the board. His contact rate has been remarkably consistent the past four seasons, but his walk rate and power have declined every year since 2009. It is this drop in power that is most confusing, since it was expected Gonzalez would hit more homers after escaping the cavernous Petco Park. Clouding the analytics is not knowing how the shoulder surgery Gonzalez had after the 2010 season affected his power, not to mention his mental state during the circus last season in Boston. The safe play is to pay for an average in the neighborhood of .300 and 200 combined runs and RBIs, then let the power take care of itself. Accept 20 bombs; don't chase the possibility of 30.

8. Allen Craig, StL 1B, OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		469	76	22	92	37	89	2	.307	.354	.522	.876
	2013 Projections		548	87	25	103	43	101	4	.296	.344	.505	.850
2013 Outlook: One of the reasons Albert Pujols' bat wasn't terribly missed in St. Louis last summer was the presence of Craig. Cardinals first basemen -- Craig made 86 starts there, or more than half -- managed .293/.348/.485 rates (.832 OPS) in 2012, within range of their .292/.367/.522 (.889) numbers in 2011. Craig's was a major contribution, but the only way it could've been termed unexpected is that he stayed mostly healthy for once. Injuries have long been a weakness; he hasn't appeared in more than 129 games in a single pro year and has played only 76 percent of his team's scheduled games the past five seasons combined. On a rate/per-game basis, Craig belongs right up there with the second tiers of first basemen and outfielders. Considering those aren't difficult positions to fill in mixed leagues in-season during the times he's absent, he's well worth the early-round pick.

9. Joe Mauer, Min C, 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		545	81	10	85	90	88	8	.319	.416	.446	.861
	2013 Projections		535	79	12	80	79	75	5	.310	.399	.445	.844
2013 Outlook: The gradual shift from behind the plate -- exactly one-half of his 2012 starts came at catcher, whereas in 2008 he started 135 times there -- seems to be doing Mauer some good. He rebounded from a down, injury-plagued 2011 to capture the majors' on-base percentage crown (.416) while placing third among catchers on our Player Rater, and in the process he set new personal bests in terms of games played (147), starts (144) and plate appearances (641). The Twins will take note of that and, while they'll probably employ another share of the catching chores between Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera, that's a plus for Mauer's keeper-league owners because it means he might again play the requisite games to qualify there for 2014, too. He'll remain a health risk for the remainder of his career, and a greater one the larger his catching demands, but few players bring the level of batting average/on-base percentage potential that Mauer does. He's well worth the choice in the early-to-mid rounds.

10. Paul Goldschmidt, Ari 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		514	82	20	82	60	130	18	.286	.359	.490	.850
	2013 Projections		541	83	26	89	68	147	12	.268	.351	.492	.843
2013 Outlook: Few sophomores made as many significantly meaningful adjustments as Goldschmidt did in 2012. Scouts long wondered whether he'd be a Rob Deer-like, all-or-nothing power source, doomed to .220 annual batting averages to go along with 30-homer outputs. And maybe, in time, Goldschmidt indeed will settle into that kind of player. But look closer: He whiffed only 22.1 percent of the time last season, and 20.5 percent after the All-Star break; he struck out 24.3 percent of the time as a pro prior to 2012. Goldschmidt also adjusted to the breaking stuff that previously flustered him, making contact 11 percent more often while boosting his OPS against curves and sliders by 257 points. This looks like a hitter who might be ready to explode in the power department, albeit at slight expense to his batting average -- think .260s -- and he even chips in a handful of steals, which helps. If you're going the cheap route at first base and addressing other positions early, he's well worth an early-to-mid rounder once you've locked in your core parts.

11. Carlos Santana, Cle C, 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		507	72	18	76	91	101	3	.252	.365	.420	.785
	2013 Projections		536	81	26	87	100	115	5	.257	.372	.470	.843
2013 Outlook: Few players have a larger value differential between leagues that use batting average versus on-base percentage as Santana; he's the kind of player most attractive in on-base and points-based leagues because of his combination of power and patience. In his brief big league career, he has averaged 24 home runs per 162 games played and walked 15.4 percent of the time, and in the second half of last season, after recovering from a June concussion, he walked (45) more than he whiffed (41) while clubbing 13 home runs in 74 games. Santana's skills are advancing and he'll turn an in-his-prime 27 in April, with the only thing keeping his ceiling from being unquestionably that of the No. 1 catcher in all rotisserie formats being the low batting average. This could be the year he breaks through, however, making him one of the best catcher values on your draft board.

12. Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		540	91	23	94	64	129	2	.259	.340	.456	.796
	2013 Projections		560	85	27	96	59	132	5	.280	.351	.489	.840
2013 Outlook: Freeman is a 23-year-old, burgeoning power source who warrants your attention once the "name brand" first basemen fly off the board in the early rounds. A .301 career hitter in the minors who only once cracked double-digit homers, he has since adapted his swing to drive the ball at the expense of batting average. That said, Freeman has become more disciplined with experience; he shaved nearly 2 percent off his strikeout rate last season and his .340 career on-base percentage makes him an underrated value in leagues that count the category. He continues to polish his game gradually, showing improvements against left-handed pitching while increasing his overall ground ball rate last season. Freeman's arrow is pointing upward, so if you choose to go cheaper at first base, keep him in your plans once the middle rounds arrive.

13. Ike Davis, NYM 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		519	66	32	90	61	141	0	.227	.308	.462	.771
	2013 Projections		537	86	33	96	69	142	2	.268	.350	.512	.862
2013 Outlook: Credit Davis for turning around what seemed to be a lost season early in 2012. Diagnosed with Valley Fever during spring training, Davis batted .166 and struck out 29.0 percent of the time during the first third of the season only to turn around and bat .257/.344/.549 with 27 homers, an 11.7 percent walk rate and 21.9 percent K rate in the final two-thirds. While difficult to tell how much of his early slump was health-related rather than a coincidence, it cannot be overlooked that he made strides hitting breaking pitches -- his OPS against curves and sliders was a much-improved .741 -- and he drove the ball with greater authority as the summer progressed, his fly ball rate nearly 50 percent in the season's final third. Davis' power potential is legitimate and not far off placing him among the National League's leaders. Picking him means banking almost entirely on homers and RBIs -- he's mediocre in most everything else -- but once the elite first basemen are off the board, his upside makes him well worth a look.

14. Eric Hosmer, KC 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		535	65	14	60	56	95	16	.232	.304	.359	.663
	2013 Projections		595	75	22	79	50	104	14	.274	.330	.442	.772
2013 Outlook: Hosmer struggled through a miserable sophomore campaign, best illustrated by pointing out that his .663 OPS ranked second-worst among batting title-eligible first basemen in any season since the 1994 strike. He fell into a lot of bad habits: Most notably, he hit ground balls 53.7 percent of the time, he pulled the ball a great deal when he did and his batting average was ruined by constant defensive overshifts in which he failed to adjust. That's right, "4-3" was seen on a lot of Hosmer's scorecards. Still, he managed double-digit stolen bases for the second consecutive season, propping up his fantasy value, and lest we forget the example of Jason Heyward a year ago at this time; Heyward's swing was deemed "broken" then and he managed to fix it. Hosmer is only 23 years old with the best years of his career ahead of him, and with a strong spring he'll understandably soar up draft boards. Don't assume a breakout is imminent, but isn't one at least possible?

15. Anthony Rizzo, ChC 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
	2012 Statistics		337	44	15	48	27	62	3	.285	.342	.463	.805
	2013 Projections		578	85	27	95	53	138	6	.268	.335	.474	.809
2013 Outlook: After an awful 2011 debut, Rizzo's Cubs team was understandably more patient with him than the Padres were last season. They made it clear he'd be afforded development time in Triple-A Iowa to begin the year, then allowed him to mash to the tune of .342/.405/.696 rates in 70 games there before finally deciding in June that he had earned another big league opportunity. Rizzo hit immediately this time, his early success lending a danger of his being overrated in 2013 fantasy drafts, but he settled in as more of a big-power, low-average type in the season's waning weeks. To that end, he was a .273 hitter with 11 home runs in 75 second-half games, which are more realistic expectations than his full-year stats (scaled to a full year, naturally). Rizzo rates among the more attractive midrange first basemen out there for fantasy owners choosing the cheaper route at the position, and he's an ideal keeper-league target with possible 40-homer power in his future.

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