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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Miguel Cabrera, Det 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6221094413966984.330.393.606.9991429
2013 Projections5951163912786933.336.419.6071.0261395
2013 Outlook: Accomplishments like the Triple Crown matter in fantasy baseball, and apparently in the awards races, too, as Cabrera won the American League's MVP award after becoming the first to lead his respective league in batting average, home runs and RBIs in 45 years. He did it despite dealing with the adjustment back to third base, a position he hadn't manned regularly in five years, albeit one that helped boost his fantasy appeal. To illustrate, from 2010-12, the average third basemen hit six fewer home runs per year than the average first baseman. Cabrera will turn 30 years old in April, still arguably within his prime, and he'll be a heart-of-the-order hitter for a Tigers lineup that added Torii Hunter and gets back Victor Martinez from injury, not to mention has playoff aspirations and therefore will always be looking to improve. His chances at a repeat are excellent, and thanks to his new position eligibility, he's a bona fide candidate to be the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball in 2013.
2. David Wright, NYM 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5819121938111215.306.391.492.8831213
2013 Projections59393271008212917.287.373.494.8671219
2013 Outlook: The Mets' clear franchise player after they signed him during the winter to an eight-year, $138 million extension through 2020, Wright has proven himself well worth the label after adapting his game to the team's more pitching-friendly ballpark. Citi Field's spacious fences have forced him to adapt his swing more for contact -- he whiffed only 16.7 percent of the time in 2012, after three straight years above 20 percent -- and Wright began to use the entire field last year once the Mets shrunk the outfield dimensions slightly. This is not a lock of a 30-homer power source, or a batting title contender, but rather a complete player who might challenge for .300 and 25, plus one who has averaged 20 steals over his eight full big league seasons. The sum is one of the most balanced contributors in all rotisserie categories, a rarity at third base and someone who warrants a pick in the first two rounds in any league format -- first round if the league (NL-only?) is deep enough.
3. Adrian Beltre, Tex 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics604953610236821.321.359.561.9211294
2013 Projections579953410733713.313.350.556.9061249
2013 Outlook: Texas certainly seems to agree with Beltre. In his two seasons with the Rangers, he's a .338/.381/.644 hitter with 43 home runs at Rangers Ballpark, his slugging percentage tops among qualifiers and his homers second-most during that span. But don't let that convince you that he's a mere ballpark product; his .283 average and 25 homers on the road the past two seasons combined would be well worthy of having in any fantasy lineup. Now 34 years old (as of April 7) -- remarkable that he's that young for a 15-year veteran -- Beltre has shed the label of career disappointment and developed into one of the more consistently reliable options at his position. At worst, he's a .290-hitting, 25-homer candidate. To put that into fantasy terms, only three other third basemen have met those minimums in any of the past three seasons: Miguel Cabrera (2012), Aramis Ramirez (2011-12) and Ryan Zimmerman (2010).
4. Evan Longoria, TB 3B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics27339175533612.289.369.527.896564
2013 Projections5389234109771148.294.385.550.9351164
2013 Outlook: Longoria is quickly developing a reputation for being one of the most injury-prone players in the game, and to an extent that's fair. He has played only 637 of 800 scheduled Rays games since his big league debut and made three trips to the DL, though in his defense two could be termed fluky: He suffered a fractured wrist on a hit-by-pitch in 2008, and his partially torn left hamstring last year was the result of a slide into second on a stolen base attempt. Picking Longoria in the early rounds requires a leap of faith, so we'll give you his 2012 stats prorated to 162 games to outline your hope: .289 batting average, 36 home runs, 116 RBIs, 82 runs scored. Fantasy owners in points-based leagues might be more apt to chance it; he's one of the better players in terms of plate discipline, his 0.67 walks-per-strikeout ratio the past three seasons combined ranking him in the upper 20 percent of qualifiers. Longoria belongs in the discussion for the top 25 overall players in any format on skills, but the longer he slides in your draft, the comfier you'll feel.
5. Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics578932595571165.282.346.478.8241151
2013 Projections585922695631125.292.361.489.8501185
2013 Outlook: Zimmerman is one of the most talented all-around third basemen in baseball -- it's a shame that most fantasy leagues don't give him credit for his defensive contributions -- but also one with a somewhat checkered injury past. A shoulder injury cost him a DL stint early last year, and he required four cortisone shots during the season to deal with the pain. Those helped: He batted .325/.382/.591 after his third injection on June 24 (the first two reportedly didn't work). But then we must stress that he batted only .218/.285/.305 before that date, showing how poorly he performs when he's hurting. Zimmerman is, and has been for some time, a hot-and-cold player probably directly tied to his level of pain tolerance, meaning it's difficult to forecast whether we'll get one of the top fantasy third basemen or one who's barely league-average. His draft appeal might hinge on perception; if he slips beyond the first few rounds, he's well worth that risk. But if his stature as a heart-of-the-order hitter for the Nats -- who should be really good this year -- drives up the price, he might be better left to someone else.
6. Brett Lawrie, Tor 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics494731148338613.273.324.405.729910
2013 Projections5748617654110819.280.335.449.7841096
2013 Outlook: Lawrie's first full season in the majors wasn't as swimmingly successful as most expected. Though he contributed a bit in every prominent rotisserie category, not one of his numbers in any of the traditional five could be classified "outstanding," and his all-out effort made him more susceptible to aches and pains than anticipated. Lawrie made a trip to the DL for a strained oblique muscle and batted .240/.304/.365 after the All-Star break, looking very much like a player in the midst of adjustments. Having not shown he has made them -- that 51.0 percent ground ball rate he had for the full season is one hint -- Lawrie shouldn't be termed a slam-dunk breakout candidate for 2013. He has the potential to restore the 20/20 potential he showed in the minors and was predicted to have a year ago, numbers that would vault him into the upper tier at his position, but be careful assuming that's what's coming.
7. Aramis Ramirez, Mil 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics570922710544829.300.360.540.9011222
2013 Projections55581269141745.290.346.512.8581144
2013 Outlook: Pop quiz: Who has played the most games at the hot corner over the past two seasons? Ramirez has shed his injury-prone reputation and is now one of the more durable hitters in the league. Not only that, but Miller Park, which was supposed to slightly depress his power, was home for the first 50-double season of Ramirez's career without taking away from his homers. Ramirez's contact rate is excellent for a power hitter; as a result, he is a threat to hit .300 every season. If your league has not yet caught up to Ramirez's reliability, you could get him at a discount. But beware, Ramirez will turn 35 in June so don't go overboard.
8. Pablo Sandoval, SF 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics39659126338591.283.342.447.789787
2013 Projections54180239047803.309.360.506.8661122
2013 Outlook: Your most recent memory of Sandoval might be his World Series MVP performance, including his three-homer Game 1, and there's always a danger that October glory can overinflate next-season fantasy expectations. He is a hitter on the rise, yet his ascent has been stunted partially by two things: Wild variance in his yearly BABIPs, and injuries, including broken bones in each hand (right hand in 2011, left hand in 2012) and a hamstring issue late last year. Sandoval's October illustrates the high end of his expectations, but his .283 batting average and 12 home runs during the regular season show the lower end. Now 26 and in the prime of his career, Sandoval has a better chance at reaching his ceiling than falling considerably short, especially in light of his having set a career high with his 8.6 percent walk rate in 2012, plus improving his contact rate the second half of the year. This might be the year he puts it all together; don't pay for that assumption, but be aware it's possible.
9. Martin Prado, Ari OF, 2B, 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics617811070586917.301.359.438.7961230
2013 Projections627881475517012.297.348.437.7851243
2013 Outlook: If you're looking for reliability and durability to stabilize your lineup, Prado is your man. Other than a 2011 dip in average, which was the result of an uncharacteristically low BABIP, Prado has been a bastion of consistency. His high contact rate yields a high average, and he has double-digit pop. He even added some steals to his repertoire last season. Granted, Prado likely will not pick up second base or shortstop eligibility this season, but the move to the desert could mean a few more homers. There are sexier players with more upside, but there is something to be said for the peace of mind Prado brings to your squad, regardless of his position.
10. Chase Headley, SD 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics60495311158615717.286.376.498.8751244
2013 Projections4997018766712315.281.366.453.819970
2013 Outlook: Where did that come from? Headley, who hit 27 home runs combined from 2009-11, exploded for 31 last year, becoming only the second Padre to ever reach the 30-homer plateau since Petco Park opened in 2004. Oddly enough, he hit 19 of them from Aug. 1 onward, his 30.2 home run/fly ball percentage during that time showing that good fortune was partly at play. That said, Headley does have some things going for him. First, the Padres shrunk the outfield fences at Petco, which mitigates some of those regression concerns in the power categories. Second, his advances in both his walk rate (he set a career high, 12.3 percent) and well-hit average (career-high .247) show that he's advancing as a hitter. And finally, Headley has been an All Star-caliber performer away from Petco, his .302/.372/.464 lifetime road rates underscoring how valuable he'd be if the Padres decide to trade him as often rumored. He'll miss approximately the first month of the season with a fractured thumb, but after he returns, he should return to form as one of the 10 best in the game at his position.
11. Hanley Ramirez*, LAD 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6047924925413221.257.322.437.7591137
2013 Projections452661766489120.263.338.434.772876
2013 Outlook: The perception is Ramirez markedly improved after donning Dodger Blue, but the reality is he was the same player who left Miami. He just sported a BABIP 50 points higher post-trade. The hope is the move rejuvenates Ramirez, as his skills have begun to decline at an age he should still be in his peak. Specifically, his strikeout rate is increasing while his power is capped with a decreasing fly ball rate. Aiding this is the fact that Dodger Stadium is favorable for right-handed power, so perhaps Ramirez will loft a few more batted balls. Ramirez's dual eligibility (3B/SS) adds a bit of value. If you're willing to incur some risk, including the fact that he could miss as much as the first two months of the season due to thumb surgery, Ramirez can reap a healthy reward in the middle rounds.
12. Mike Moustakas, KC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics563692073391245.242.296.412.708998
2013 Projections611762485401185.265.314.448.7621135
2013 Outlook: Moustakas, a 24-year-old No. 2 pick from the 2007 draft, has endured an up-and-down professional career, at times putting up video game numbers and at others looking destined to be no more than a league-average third baseman. In his first full season in the majors in 2012, he seemed to settle in, chipping in 34 doubles and 20 home runs, but at the same time he struck out more than three times more often than he walked and was often a liability at the plate. Moustakas' approach appears to have shifted at this level; he strikes out a lot more (20.2 percent last year) than he did in the minors (14.2 percent at the Triple-A level) and he had a 49.8 percent fly ball rate in 2012 that suggests he's trading average for power. Moustakas might not be far off from realizing his 30-homer potential, and those who draft him in the middle rounds are seeking that rather than much of a batting average contribution. He's probably not yet at the point where he's a major points-league asset, due to his free-swinging nature, but some growth in all formats should be expected.
13. Pedro Alvarez, Pit 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics525643085571801.244.317.467.784930
2013 Projections544693291611832.250.326.480.806981
2013 Outlook: Alvarez will never be mistaken for a batting champion, but in terms of sheer power, he's one of the more overlooked sources. After a horrific 2011 in which he batted .191 and whiffed 30.5 percent of the time he came to the plate, the 26-year-old closed some of the many holes in his swing, soaring to personal bests in homers (30), RBIs (85) and slugging percentage (.467). The most notable improvement was his handling of breaking pitches; he improved by 142 points in OPS and hit nine homers against curves and sliders last season despite seeing 7 percent more of them compared to 2011. In fact, he batted .266 with six of those homers against them after the All-Star break alone. Those bode well for Alvarez's chances at another big-power-at-low-cost campaign, but he's also among the leading contenders for the major league strikeout crown, meaning he's a liability in batting average in rotisserie leagues or in points-based formats that penalize for strikeouts.
14. Kyle Seager, Sea 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5946220864611013.259.316.423.7381096
2013 Projections6387219744412511.266.316.415.7321149
2013 Outlook: Seager is one Mariner who will be happy the team moved in the outfield fences at Safeco Field. Look at his 2012 home/road splits: He batted .223/.307/.325 with a 5.0 home run/fly ball percentage at Safeco, compared to .293/.324/.511 and 12.8 percent on the road. That's not to say he'll suddenly burst through with 30-plus homers, but there's every reason to believe he's at least as good as his 2012 numbers with potential for more. Seager is one of those players who doesn't get enough attention -- mostly due to his surroundings -- but warrants a look for those seeking to fill third base/corner infielder on the cheap. He might give you 20-25/10 stats with greater appeal in daily formats in which you can avoid his Safeco games against tougher starters.
15. David Freese, StL 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics501702079571223.293.372.467.839974
2013 Projections481631775491142.289.362.447.809910
2013 Outlook: Saddled with the injury-prone label, Freese quieted some of his critics by playing in a career-high 144 games last season. Considering many of Freese's woes were fluke and not chronic, it's reasonable to expect another season devoid of major health issues. Performance-wise, Freese produced exactly as expected and can be counted on for more of the same with one cautionary note. Freese sports a BABIP significantly above league average, although it is supported by a strong line-drive rate. However, with players of this nature, there is more downside than upside. The good thing is even though Freese was injury-free last season, his market value reflects some residual health concern, so you have a built-in performance hedge. And if he stays healthy, you get a positive return on your investment.
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