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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
31. Juan Francisco, Atl 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics1921793211701.234.278.432.710311
2013 Projections347391554151011.254.288.452.740600
2013 Outlook: Following the trade of Martin Prado, Francisco has a straight path to the left-handed part -- which is the larger portion of the pie -- of a third-base platoon for the Braves. Through parts of four big league seasons, he's a .272/.320/.487 hitter against right-handers, including all 14 of his home runs. Francisco does, however, have his limitations: He's a free swinger who might be a liability in terms of batting average, and he's not adept enough defensively to capture all the third base at-bats against righties. NL-only owners should target him late, understanding that they're targeting him primarily for his power, and the hope that maybe he improves to the point where he'd play himself into more at-bats.
32. Jordan Pacheco, Col 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics4755155422617.309.341.421.762895
2013 Projections3764664917495.287.323.399.722702
2013 Outlook: Pacheco is a handy big league reserve -- and in fantasy, a useful NL-only back-end roster target -- thanks to his ability to make contact and fill in at three positions: catcher, first base and third base. A .308 career minor league hitter whose contact rate was 88.7 percent, Pacheco batted .309 when pressed to play nearly every day by the Rockies last summer, his contact rate at 87.2 percent. Eerily similar, right? Unfortunately, he offers little else in the way of fantasy production, averaging nine homers and nine steals per 162 games played as a pro. Pacheco is a handy, can't-hurt-you player in NL-only formats, and he'd have added value as a No. 2 catcher if he can reach the requisite minimum of games played there.
33. Josh Donaldson, Oak 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics2743493314614.241.289.398.687473
2013 Projections36448124627846.236.295.393.688636
2013 Outlook: Though Donaldson enters spring training this season with a better chance at regular at-bats than in 2012, what he has gained in terms of likelihood of playing time he has lost in no longer qualifying at catcher in most fantasy leagues. Still, Donaldson's 2012 stats belie his fantasy potential: He finished the season with .290/.356/.489 slash rates in a 47-game stint at the hot corner, in line with his .270/.354/.486 career numbers at the Triple-A level, making him the leading contender for the Athletics' wide-open third base job. He's a sneaky late-rounder in AL-only leagues, especially if he improves his walk rate.
34. Alberto Callaspo, LAA 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics45755105356594.252.331.361.692851
2013 Projections4865695254526.267.339.368.708911
2013 Outlook: Callaspo is one of those players with more on-field worth than fantasy value, because so much of his appeal derives from his defense. That assures him a regular gig as the Angels' third baseman, with big at-bat totals resulting in run/RBI totals worthy of having in an AL-only lineup, but there isn't a lot of upside here. He'll turn 30 in April, meaning that the primary spot we might see growth is in his batting average, if only because his .268 BA on balls in play was a bit low and stands to see correction. Callaspo, however, could be a bargain in one regard: If the Angels decide to use him as their No. 2 hitter slotted between Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, his ability to get on base at a healthy clip might result in a noticeable boost in runs scored.
35. Chris Nelson, NYY 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics3454595327842.301.352.458.810650
2013 Projections3824995223834.272.315.419.733691
2013 Outlook: Largely as a result of his superior defense, Nelson is the favorite to win the job at the hot corner for the Rockies. But Colorado needs production from a corner infield spot, so Nelson is going to have to hit to keep the job. The problem is his contact rate is trending in the wrong direction and Nelson has only marginal power and speed. Since he does have second and third base eligibility in most leagues he could be worth a reserve pick in mixed leagues, but nothing more.
36. Chris Johnson, Atl 3B, 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics488481576311325.281.326.451.777893
2013 Projections3313394619883.266.311.423.734572
2013 Outlook: Despite fanning in one-quarter of his trips to the plate, Johnson sports a respectable career average of .276 due to a .347 BABIP. This is a risky combination, as all it takes is for a few batted balls to find leather and Johnson could become mired in a slump and in jeopardy of losing playing time. Since Johnson sports average power at best, he needs regular at-bats to be fantasy relevant. Since the investment is usually minimal, Johnson is a viable late-game target, so long as you have an alternative ready if he struggles.
37. Adeiny Hechavarria, Mia 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics126102154320.254.280.365.645201
2013 Projections50154544231118.238.272.323.595800
2013 Outlook: The offseason blockbuster between the Blue Jays and Marlins put Hechavarria, a 23-year-old Cuban import known mostly for his stellar defense, on a clearer path toward a big league job in 2013. In fact, he's expected to enter next season as Miami's starting shortstop, which means he should get 400-plus at-bats. That could make Hechavarria somewhat useful as a reserve middle infielder in NL-only leagues -- he could accrue some decent counting stats -- but ultimately so many at-bats with a sub-.250 average will hurt more than help.
38. Luis Cruz, LAD 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics283266409342.297.322.431.753532
2013 Projections4264495113592.270.293.406.700765
2013 Outlook: Cruz is simply not the player who batted .297 last season; he was a .261/.296/.394 lifetime minor league hitter who offers more with the glove than the bat. The Dodgers will give him a chance to compete for at-bats at either third base or shortstop, making him a last-on-your-roster NL-only type, but even if he wins either starting job he wouldn't crack the mixed-league radar.
39. Daniel Descalso, StL 2B, 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics3744142637836.227.303.324.627607
2013 Projections3023532629584.245.315.344.659516
2013 Outlook: Projected to begin the year as the Cardinals' starting second baseman, Descalso is a player whose skill set profiles better in a utility role, but who serves as a placeholder until prospect Kolten Wong is ready. The reason: Descalso doesn't really stand out in any one aspect of his game, other than perhaps walks, and let's point out that he had an 8.6 percent walk rate but a .347 on-base percentage in his minor league career, and 8.6/.318 numbers in those categories in his first three years in St. Louis. Do those look like the stats of an on-base specialist? Hardly. NL-only owners will need to plug middle-infield holes with players like this -- assuming he keeps a starting job -- but Descalso doesn't have much more to offer.
40. Jerry Hairston Jr.*, LAD 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics2381942623271.273.342.387.729437
2013 Projections3183463329363.264.331.377.709585
2013 Outlook: Though he never made much of himself as a regular in his pre-age 30 days, Hairston has carved out a nice little niche for himself as a utilityman since reaching that age plateau. He has back-to-back seasons of respectable .270/.340 slash numbers, and last season he was a .293 hitter against left-handers who could've been a handy plug-in in the deepest of daily leagues. Hairston is a player with more value in the real rather than fantasy game, but the advantage he provides us is multi-position eligibility (second and third base initially in ESPN leagues) to help fill final roster spots in NL-only or deep-mixed leagues. He'll be in the mix for at-bats at third base for the Dodgers.
41. Scott Sizemore*, Oak 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics------------------------
2013 Projections2273262929633.247.336.392.728402
2013 Outlook: A torn ACL cost Sizemore the entire 2012 season, but he's healthy now and expected to compete for regular at-bats at either second or third base for the Athletics. Assuming he can earn them, he's an intriguing source of stolen bases and runs scored, being that he walked 11.4 percent of the time during his minor league career, and 11.5 percent so far in 158 big-league games. Sizemore might also hit for a respectable average should he be able to cut down on his strikeouts -- he whiffed 26.1 percent of the time in his last healthy year (2011). Keep tabs on his progress in March, and tuck him away as an AL-only sleeper.
42. Ian Stewart, ChC 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics1791651721460.201.292.335.627283
2013 Projections32138114036933.218.302.380.682537
2013 Outlook: Stewart, through six big-league seasons, has failed to realize the 30-homer potential many scouts predicted a half-decade ago or more, and his past two seasons have been miserable for fantasy: .183/.272/.289 combined rates with only five home runs in 103 contests. Nevertheless, the Cubs don't seem ready to hand third base over to Josh Vitters yet, and there's talk that the team might platoon Stewart with Luis Valbuena -- odd considering both hit left-handed. It's a smart arrangement considering Stewart has just .218/.306/.382 career rates against lefties, but his .236/.323/.427 rates against righties show that he's, at best, an NL-only consideration.
43. Pedro Ciriaco, Bos 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics2593321984716.293.315.390.705465
2013 Projections2933332465513.256.272.352.623492
2013 Outlook: Where did that come from? A .272/.299/.357 hitter during his minor league career, Ciriaco turned in a helium season of a .293 batting average, fueled by an unrealistically high .352 BABIP, playing his way into regular at-bats for the Red Sox by year's end. It was probably enough to land him a 2013 roster spot as a backup, but the Red Sox smartly signed a stronger starting shortstop in Stephen Drew during the winter and will turn third base back over to a healthy Will Middlebrooks. Ciriaco is an AL-only asset in one regard -- speed, as evidenced by his average of 34 stolen bases per 162 games in the minors -- but he lacks the on-base skills to fuel the category to a greater extent than he did in 2012.
44. Ryan Roberts, TB 3B, 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics439511252409210.235.296.360.656761
2013 Projections2874193631598.240.314.390.704525
2013 Outlook: Roberts surprised in 2011, finishing one homer and two steals short of a 20-20 season. Perhaps lost in the numbers was an unrepeatable line-drive rate. Sure enough, Roberts' production fell, leading to a change of address as the Diamondbacks shipped him to the Rays. As usual, Tampa has a bunch of moving parts, which means Roberts will get playing time in a few different places, though his days as a regular are in jeopardy unless Tampa opts to play Ben Zobrist in the outfield so Roberts could win the job at second. Starting the year with dual eligibility at second and third base is a nice benefit, making Roberts a nice late or reserve pick with playing-time upside.
45. Wilson Betemit*, Bal 3BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics341411240311030.261.322.422.744583
2013 Projections2693293527781.268.333.435.768475
2013 Outlook: Betemit has carved himself out a nice little niche as a platoon mate the past half-decade; he has a lifetime OPS nearly 200 points higher against right-handed pitchers (.824) than lefties (.637), and he's been a .292/.351/.483 hitter against righties the past five seasons. As such, he's ticketed to be the Orioles' left-handed half of a designated hitter platoon whose right-handed half is TBA (Russ Canzler?). That limited role caps Betemit's usefulness in fantasy to AL-only leagues and deeper daily formats, but he generally is utilized properly by his teams and can be a handy pick as you fill out your roster in those. He's also the fallback for Manny Machado at third base; regular at-bats would drive down Betemit's batting average but could lead to a few more runs/RBIs.
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