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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS

1. Ryan Braun, Mil OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		598	108	41	112	63	128	30	.319	.391	.595	.987		933
	2013 Projections		599	108	36	111	63	113	29	.319	.389	.576	.965		874.5
2013 Outlook: Question Braun? He has answers. After having his 2011 National League MVP award cast under a shroud of controversy -- it was announced weeks after he won it that he had tested positive for PEDs and faced a 50-game suspension, a ban overturned on appeal -- Braun put forth a 2012 that was practically as good, eliminating any doubt of his abilities. He had more home runs (41 in 2012, 33 in 2011) and RBIs (112 and 111), and was comparable in OPS (.987 and .994) and WAR (6.8 and 7.7). Braun did so despite the free-agent departure of Prince Fielder the previous January; Fielder had batted behind Braun 147 times the year before, Braun's accomplishments in spite of that demonstrating the fallacies of "lineup protection." Since Braun's May 27, 2007, debut, he is one of three players to total at least a .300 batting average, 200 home runs and 600 apiece of runs and RBIs -- Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are the others -- and he's the only one of the three with more than 100 steals. He's a five-category fantasy superstar and, at age 29, makes as strong a case for the first pick in the draft as there is.

2. Mike Trout, LAA OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		559	129	30	83	67	139	49	.326	.399	.564	.963		867.5
	2013 Projections		615	112	22	69	60	149	46	.285	.351	.472	.823		746.5
2013 Outlook: We have never seen a rookie season like the one Trout just put forth. We might never again. He became the first rookie -- and youngest player -- in history to join the 30/30 club, the first player (not just rookie, player) to manage at least 30 home runs, 45 stolen bases and 125 runs in a season, and only the fourth player to bat at least .320 with 30 homers at the age of 20 or younger (Mel Ott, Ted Williams and Alex Rodriguez are the others). Trout also did so while providing outstanding defense -- his 21 Defensive Runs Saved were third-most among outfielders -- assuring he'll remain a fixture in the Angels' everyday lineup. We might have just witnessed the best year of Trout's career, and obviously his chances of regressing somewhat are high. But to what extent? His MVP-race detractors routinely pointed out his "late-season swoon," which amounted to a .269/.369/.455 line with six homers and eight steals; those project to 26 homers and 35 steals over a full year. Well, we've done the math for you: Even that level of performance would still earn Trout an easy place among the three most productive players in fantasy baseball. Talk about a downside -- or, in this case, lack thereof.

3. Miguel Cabrera, Det 3B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		622	109	44	139	66	98	4	.330	.393	.606	.999		994
	2013 Projections		595	116	39	127	86	93	3	.336	.419	.607	1.026		937.5
2013 Outlook: Accomplishments like the Triple Crown matter in fantasy baseball, and apparently in the awards races, too, as Cabrera won the American League's MVP award after becoming the first to lead his respective league in batting average, home runs and RBIs in 45 years. He did it despite dealing with the adjustment back to third base, a position he hadn't manned regularly in five years, albeit one that helped boost his fantasy appeal. To illustrate, from 2010-12, the average third basemen hit six fewer home runs per year than the average first baseman. Cabrera will turn 30 years old in April, still arguably within his prime, and he'll be a heart-of-the-order hitter for a Tigers lineup that added Torii Hunter and gets back Victor Martinez from injury, not to mention has playoff aspirations and therefore will always be looking to improve. His chances at a repeat are excellent, and thanks to his new position eligibility, he's a bona fide candidate to be the No. 1 player in fantasy baseball in 2013.

4. Robinson Cano, NYY 2B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		627	105	33	94	61	96	3	.313	.379	.550	.929		901
	2013 Projections		627	106	33	109	54	91	6	.313	.373	.555	.928		868.5
2013 Outlook: Now 30 years old and in the prime of his career, Cano is riding a streak of four consecutive seasons with at least a .300 batting average and 25 home runs. To put that into historical perspective, only one second baseman in history has had more such seasons in his entire career: Rogers Hornsby, who had five. Cano is the best run-producing second baseman in fantasy baseball, he has Yankee Stadium's short porch helping his cause -- he has hit 21 more home runs there (68) than on the road (47) since it opened -- and he's playing for a new contract this summer. If he has any warts, they're either his career-worst performance against lefties in 2012 (.239/.309/.337), his rising swing-and-miss rate (20 percent, up 2 percent from 2011) or the fact that his Yankees lack some of the firepower that their teams of the past decade had, impacting his runs/RBIs potential. But we admit that we're nitpicking; Cano's chances at another top-10-in-the-game season remain outstanding.

5. Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		593	107	31	96	70	132	20	.327	.400	.553	.953		867
	2013 Projections		599	101	27	91	81	126	24	.299	.384	.509	.894		786
2013 Outlook: Looking for a catalyst for the Pirates' incredible run the first four months of last season? Look no further than McCutchen, who in 2012 added 51 points of batting average and 131 points of OPS to his 2009-11 cumulative numbers, while becoming only the fifth player in Pirates history, and first in seven years, to manage a 30/20 season. That resulted in the fourth-best fantasy season by any individual player. McCutchen's critics will cite his .375 BABIP, fourth-highest in the league and 78 points higher than the major league average; we'll counter with his .282 well-hit average (percentage of his at-bats in which he made hard contact), also fourth-highest and 85 points higher than the average, meaning that his BABIP should have been higher than usual. Just 26 years of age, McCutchen is at the dawn of his big-league prime. He's a first-rounder for sure, and with a stronger supporting cast -- read: runs/RBIs -- he might make a compelling case for No. 1.

6. Matt Kemp, LAD OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		403	74	23	69	40	103	9	.303	.367	.538	.906		582.5
	2013 Projections		559	98	33	103	60	147	17	.297	.367	.540	.907		740.5
2013 Outlook: Fantasy's No. 1 player in 2011, Kemp, for the first six weeks last season, appeared on track to repeat the effort. Then hamstring injuries struck; they would cost him 51 of 162 Dodger games in 2012 and cast doubt upon his future production in the stolen base department, a key part of his fantasy game. Projecting his output to a full year, he'd have stolen only 14 bases, still his worst total in his five seasons as a regular. Still, even if that's Kemp's new baseline in the category, he's an in-his-prime 28-year-old whose contributions with his bat should easily elevate him into the top 10 -- and arguably top five -- in mixed leagues, and make him a viable No. 2 pick in NL-only formats. Consider his per-162-game rates the past three seasons: .291 batting average, 35 home runs, 108 RBIs, 103 runs scored. The primary question about Kemp this spring should be the condition of his shoulder, which required surgery in October, though most indications are that he should be ready by Opening Day. If so, considering the Dodgers' intent to improve the talent surrounding him, Kemp should again rank among the leaders in homers, RBIs and runs scored.

7. Albert Pujols, LAA 1B, DH	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		607	85	30	105	52	76	8	.285	.343	.516	.859		854
	2013 Projections		614	102	34	115	64	68	10	.300	.367	.533	.900		852
2013 Outlook: Pick your side of the argument: Is Pujols' five-year trend of declining OPS, plus his early-season struggles with the Angels, a sign of his hitting the down slope of his career? Or were Pujols' 2012 first-quarter issues an obvious indication of a league adjustment, and his .310/.373/.584, 27-homer, 87-RBI performance in the final three quarters, a stronger indication that he has plenty left in the tank? In his defense, most of his best career comparables remained superstars through their age-33 seasons, and his Angels did quite a job bolstering his supporting offensive cast when they signed free agent Josh Hamilton. Pujols might no longer be a batting title contender, or perhaps not even a lock for .300, and his new baseline in homers might be closer to 30 than 40, but even at his new levels of production he'll pile up the runs and RBIs. No longer a lock for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, Pujols nevertheless ranks up there with the 10 best in the game.

8. Carlos Gonzalez, Col OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		518	89	22	85	56	115	20	.303	.371	.510	.881		718.5
	2013 Projections		534	95	26	94	53	117	22	.301	.366	.522	.888		709.5
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez's propensity for minor aches and pains were the one thing keeping him from true fantasy superstardom the past two seasons, as while he made only one trip to the DL during that time, he missed 62 games combined. Scale his statistics in 2011-12 to 162 games played, however, and he'd have been a .299 hitter with 30 home runs, 110 RBIs, 25 stolen bases and 112 runs scored. Those are smarter baselines than what he did during his Player Rater-leading 2010 campaign, during which a .384 BABIP fueled his completely unrealistic .336 batting average. Fortunately for Gonzalez, he still has Coors Field helping his cause -- he has a career OPS 328 points higher there (1.054) than everywhere else (.726) -- and he's still only 27 years old, meaning he's not at a point in his career at which the injuries should be a major concern. Heck, with some luck in that department, he could make a run at top honors on the Player Rater again.

9. Joey Votto, Cin 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		374	59	14	56	94	85	5	.337	.474	.567	1.041		612.5
	2013 Projections		553	95	28	98	117	123	9	.320	.441	.561	1.001		826.5
2013 Outlook: Votto last season finally faced adversity for the first time as a big leaguer, succumbing to a pair of knee surgeries, one in July and one in August, that sapped his power following his late-season return. In 30 games, playoffs included, he went 127 plate appearances without a home run, his fly ball rate 33 percent and his at-bats per double 11.8. Compare that to his stats last year before landing on the DL: 14 home runs in 370 PAs, 36 percent fly ball rate, 8.3 at-bats per double. In other words, it'd be nice to see Votto mashing during spring training. But even without that evidence, the winter's rest should've done him some good, he plays in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in one of the best lineups in baseball, and he possesses some of the most balanced splits in the game. Votto has a higher lifetime road (.981) OPS than at home (.954), and his .913 OPS against left-handers the past three seasons ranks No. 1 among left-handed hitters. Why shouldn't we believe he's capable of recapturing his MVP form?

10. Prince Fielder, Det 1B	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		581	83	30	108	85	84	1	.313	.412	.528	.940		870
	2013 Projections		576	97	35	116	100	99	1	.313	.423	.556	.979		854.5
2013 Outlook: One of the game's premier power sources, Fielder's 258 home runs since the beginning of 2006 rank third-best and 754 RBIs fifth-best in the majors. But what has made Fielder, now 28, such a valuable commodity in fantasy is his soaring rate of contact. The son of Cecil Fielder, who had a 22.2 percent career strikeout rate, Prince whiffed a career-low 12.2 percent of the time in 2012, a number his father never came close to attaining. That helped explain his career-best .313 batting average, and it's a skills improvement that might potentially elevate him into the first round in mixed leagues considering he bats in the heart of an improved lineup with Miguel Cabrera, who has a lifetime .395 on-base percentage, slotted ahead of him. Despite playing a deep position, Fielder is the kind of elite slugger worth his price tag.

11. Troy Tulowitzki, Col SS	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		181	33	8	27	19	19	2	.287	.360	.486	.846		232.5
	2013 Projections		544	92	30	102	58	79	9	.301	.371	.540	.911		753.5
2013 Outlook: Fantasy owners will be tempted to apply the "injury-prone" label to Tulowitzki. After all, he has averaged only 120 games played in his six full seasons, made four trips to the DL during that span and missed the Rockies' final 113 games of 2012 due to a groin injury that required surgery to remove scar tissue. Tulowitzki is expected to be fully recovered in time for the spring, but he'll be among those players most closely watched in March, as there's no denying he's one of the most valuable at his position when healthy. To that end, from 2010-12, he managed .305/.374/.545 rates while averaging 34 home runs, 118 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and 106 runs scored per 162 games. And from a career perspective, Alex Rodriguez is the only shortstop with more seasons (6) of at least a .290 batting average, 25 home runs and a .900 OPS other than Tulowitzki (3, 2009-11). It's a risky move to draft him in the first three rounds, but one that could have a substantial reward.

12. Justin Upton, Atl OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		554	107	17	67	63	121	18	.280	.355	.430	.785		680.5
	2013 Projections		583	100	28	84	67	135	20	.281	.362	.492	.854		724.5
2013 Outlook: At the dawn of his age-25 season, Upton has 108 home runs and 80 stolen bases on his career résumé & yet inexplicably he is regarded somewhat a disappointment. "So-so" seasons in 2010 and 2012 are the reason. As a 24-year-old last season, he struggled to meet lofty fantasy expectations, perhaps in part due to a thumb injury that plagued him most early in the year. But before you write him off as having reached his peak, consider the following: One, he's still at a stage of a career when more should be expected, being that he's only the seventh player in history to have amassed at least 100 homers and 80 steals through his age-24 campaign, showing how truly impressive his career has been thus far. Two, he's finally freed of the trade rumors that dogged him for months in Arizona, ones that might have had an adverse impact upon his play. And three, Upton did seem to pick up the pace late last year, which bodes well for carrying into 2013; he had .285/.338/.471 rates and a surprisingly low (for him) 16.2 percent strikeout rate the final third of the season. Is this the year he finally realizes his long-predicted MVP potential? Paired with his brother, B.J., in the Braves' outfield, it's possible. Since he shouldn't cost as much as he did a year ago, it's a chance well worth taking.

13. Justin Verlander, Det SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	238.1	60	239	17	0	0	2.64	1.06	9.03		902
	2013 Projections		33	33	234.0	61	240	20	0	0	2.96	1.09	9.23		901
2013 Outlook: Workhorse, thy name is Verlander. During the past five seasons, no pitcher has made more starts (168) or averaged more pitches per start (112.6), and his 1203 1/3 innings pitched, postseason included, ranks second only to CC Sabathia (1244). Limiting it to only 2011-12, he tossed a mind-boggling 537 2/3 frames counting the postseason. Yet despite that hefty workload Verlander is coming off his two best seasons, which earned him a 2011 American League Cy Young and placed him second in the balloting in 2012. He also hasn't made a single trip to the disabled list in eight seasons as a big leaguer. Verlander's greatest asset in fantasy is volume; he is a pitcher with outstanding statistics, but it's the innings he pitches comparative to his brethren that enhance their impact. Rotisserie leagues, points-based leagues, head-to-head leagues, whatever style you play, Verlander should be one of -- it not the -- first starting pitchers off your board.

14. Clayton Kershaw, LAD SP	YEAR		G	GS	IP	BB	K	W	SV	HD	ERA	WHIP	K/9		PTS
	2012 Statistics		33	33	227.2	63	229	14	0	0	2.53	1.02	9.05		821
	2013 Projections		33	33	226.0	63	233	16	0	0	2.71	1.04	9.28		837
2013 Outlook: Let's face it: After the kind of two-year run Kershaw had in 2011-12, he might be the unquestioned No. 1 starting pitcher if not for a hip injury that sidetracked him briefly last September. So let's allay those concerns: He avoided surgery, and his statistics in the four starts he made after the injury popped up (3-for-4 in quality starts, 0.64 ERA) weren't any less superb than those he had accrued in his 29 starts before it. The Dodgers have maintained Kershaw's workload splendidly -- he's a 25-year-old who on only three occasions in 98 starts combined from 2010 to '12 threw 120-plus pitches -- and he ranks among the top five in baseball the past three seasons combined in the following: WHIP (1.06, fourth), FIP (2.81, second), K's per nine (9.32, third), K rate (25.9 percent, first) and quality start percentage (74.5, fourth). And perhaps best of all, no one has induced weaker contact during that time, his .151 well-hit average allowed is lowest in the game. Unless publicly addressed injuries like Kershaw's hip bother you -- remember that every pitcher to a degree comes with some wear and tear -- there's little reason not to consider him as one of, if not the, first pitchers off the board.

15. Giancarlo Stanton*, Mia OF	YEAR		AB	R	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS		PTS
	2012 Statistics		449	75	37	86	46	143	6	.290	.361	.608	.969		670.5
	2013 Projections		564	90	42	103	64	183	8	.278	.357	.574	.932		740.5
2013 Outlook: Stanton's power is prolific. He finished seven home runs off the major league lead and four off the National League lead last season, despite playing 31 games fewer than those respective leaders. And historically speaking, only four players in history managed at least as many as his 93 home runs before their 23rd birthdays -- his was last Nov. 8 -- Mel Ott, Eddie Mathews, Tony Conigliaro, Alex Rodriguez and Frank Robinson. Stanton did so despite the chatter that the new Marlins Park was cavernous; he managed .304/.372/.591 rates and 16 of his 37 homers there, his home run/fly ball percentage a healthy 20.3. He'd be one of the first players you'd pick if asked to predict the 2013 major league home run champion, but what about his other contributions? The gutted Marlins lack the supporting cast to prop up Stanton's runs and RBIs, and his elevated .344 BABIP despite a negligible change in his frequency of hard contact and an increase in his fly ball rate suggests his .290 batting average might regress. Granted enough pitches to hit, Stanton might hit as many as 50 homers. He might, however, also bat only .260 and struggle to surpass 100 runs or RBIs. Buy, but be careful not to overpay.

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