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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
31. Cliff Lee, Phi SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2012 Statistics3030211.0282076003.161.118.83442
2013 Projections3131221.03121511003.101.058.76503
2013 Outlook: Few 2012 statistics are more irrelevant than Lee's six wins. They were an aberration of historical proportions: Of the 379 instances in the game's history in which a pitcher managed at least 200 strikeouts with lower than a 3.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in a season, no one managed fewer wins than Lee. Lee led the majors with both 11 quality start no-decisions and 15 non-win quality starts, and his Phillies afforded him 3.20 runs of support per nine innings, fourth-worst in the majors and considerably beneath the team's 4.22 runs per game for the year. The truth about Lee's 2012 was that he really wasn't any less effective a pitcher than he was in the four seasons that preceded it, and he averaged 16 wins a year from 2008-11. No one has the kind of pinpoint command Lee does; his 7.16 K's per walk the past three seasons combined is tops in the majors. He's a pitcher worth picking to lead your fantasy squad, and his odds of far greater success in four primary rotisserie categories -- instead of only three -- are outstanding.
32. Cole Hamels, Phi SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2012 Statistics3131215.15221617003.051.129.03529
2013 Projections3232211.05120717003.241.128.83497
2013 Outlook: Hamels is a consistent fellow, one of five major leaguers with at least 20 quality starts and 180 strikeouts with beneath a 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in each of the past three seasons. Thanks to the addition of a cutter in 2010, he has produced three years of near-identical statistics in a row, the sum of which placed him seventh in WHIP (1.10), fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.96) and seventh in quality starts (68). He is a legitimate ace whose skills are sometimes underrated due to the fact that he's the youngest of the Phillies' three aces, not to mention the only one without a Cy Young on his résumé. But Hamels is as good a bet to finally capture that hardware as any pitcher on the Phillies roster -- or any roster at that -- and he's one of the most trustworthy bets among the upper tier of fantasy starters.
33. Adam Jones, Bal OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics64810332823412616.287.334.505.839436
2013 Projections6309029923212415.287.331.487.818412
2013 Outlook: Jones' career has followed an almost perfect aging curve, culminating in career highs in games played (162), plate appearances (697), hits (186), doubles (39), home runs (32), runs scored (103), batting average (.287) and slugging percentage (.505) as a 26-year-old in 2012. Though his performance might be somewhat glossed over by the so-called "Orioles magic," in truth his output shouldn't have been unexpected. He has long been regarded a budding power hitter with above-average speed; his weakness is that his plate discipline hasn't improved to the point where he'll ever be an asset in terms of batting average. What we saw from Jones in 2012 might have been about his peak expectation, but he's only entering the prime years of his career. Might there be more? It's possible, but his drafting owners would hardly complain if the result was an out-and-out repeat.
34. Starlin Castro, ChC SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6467814783610025.283.323.430.753395
2013 Projections6588713733610024.296.334.435.769406
2013 Outlook: Castro has absorbed his share of criticism for an alleged lack of focus during his three seasons in the bigs, but in his defense, he batted .306/.367/.464 -- all of those higher than his career rates to date -- in the final third of 2012 following his inking a seven-year, $60 million extension with the Cubs. So is it fair to sling barbs his way? The kid begins 2013 at only age 23, and his accomplishments to date rank within range of the greatest shortstops in the game's history; his 529 career hits are fourth-most by any shortstop through his age-22 campaign. Castro has already proven to fantasy owners his durability -- he played all but 11 innings at shortstop last year -- speed and ability to hit for a high average, and scouts felt earlier in his pro career that he had the potential to develop more power. Castro might take only baby steps by year, considering a player's prime is usually in the ages 25 to 30 range, but stepping up his 2012 production would result in a top-25 player.
35. Jay Bruce, Cin OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics560893499621559.252.327.514.841392
2013 Projections5749538108681589.267.346.533.879428
2013 Outlook: A home run crown might be in Bruce's future, but a batting title surely is not. A .308 career minor league hitter who was always expected to possess plus power, Bruce has adapted his swing as a big leaguer to drive the ball, recognizing his skills are suited to as high as 40-homer outputs at the expense of high strikeout totals. His homer total has increased in every big league year and his ground ball rate has dropped in each, though a rise in his strikeout rate -- his 24.5 percent number in 2012 was a career high -- probably locks his batting average close to last year's .250 range. Picking Bruce means taking a shot at scoring the National League's home run champ, and it means seeking batting average help elsewhere in rotisserie leagues. That's an early-round pick, but not one of the top picks.
36. Bryce Harper, Wsh OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5339822595612018.270.340.477.817365
2013 Projections5868727936413522.266.339.478.817411
2013 Outlook: Harper's Rookie of the Year campaign, an honor earned at the age of 19, put him up there with some of the best players in history. His 5.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) was the most in any single season by a teenager, and he was only the eighth player in history with at least 2.0 WAR solely on offense (he had 3.4). And in terms of fantasy stats, Harper's 22 homers are second-most and his 18 stolen bases third-most by a teenager. He is a once-in-a-generation talent, something fantasy owners have known since the instant he was tabbed the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and there should come a time -- sooner rather than later  when he's tallying MVP-caliber statistics, meaning he's one of the most valuable commodities out there in dynasty leagues. Could the transformation happen this season? Perhaps. But Harper did bat .260 after the All-Star break, and both his 20.1 percent strikeout and 45.3 percent ground ball rates for the full year say that it might be a more gradual transformation. There's a danger that Harper buzz could spiral out of control, pushing him close to first-round status. His ceiling is in that class; more realistic expectations should have him just outside of the elite group ... for 2013 alone, that is.
37. Billy Butler, KC 1B, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6147229107541112.313.373.510.882437
2013 Projections6098427107631012.320.385.516.901469
2013 Outlook: After leading the majors in doubles from 2009-11 combined (140), Butler finally converted some of those into home runs at the age of 26 last season, setting personal bests in homers (29), RBIs (107) and slugging percentage (.510). His transformation coincided with little more than a boost to his home run/fly ball percentage -- his 18.6 rate in the category was also a career high -- meaning he finally got some of the good fortune he deserved on batted balls. That could mean that Butler doesn't have much more room for growth, but is any fantasy owner going to complain about a player practically certain to bat at least .300 with 25 homers? As difficult as this is to believe, only 11 players reached both of those thresholds last season. Butler also barely met the 20-game minimum to qualify at first base in 2013; that's the kind of boost to his value that strengthens his candidacy for a pick in the first few rounds of any draft.
38. Jered Weaver*, LAA SPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2012 Statistics3030188.24514220002.811.026.77473
2013 Projections3333209.05218118003.191.127.79481
2013 Outlook: There are some warning signs with Weaver that are of concern if you plan on making him your ace. Most notably, his strikeout rate is in freefall to a point that it is a tick below league average. A possible cause for this is a drop in fastball velocity, while his off-speed offerings have all gained a little speed; the differential between the two is narrowing. If Weaver's punchouts continue to wane, his ability to sport an ERA lower than his expected ERA may suffer. Also of concern is Weaver missed three starts last season due to shoulder stiffness. He's recovered, but it does lower his durability points a tick. Putting it all together, Weaver is still worth of fantasy ace status, it's just he's now at the bottom of the tier as opposed to the top like the past couple of seasons.
39. Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics6297518108421102.299.344.463.806408
2013 Projections6259124109631121.307.372.499.871464
2013 Outlook: Gonzalez could be one of the toughest reads on the board. His contact rate has been remarkably consistent the past four seasons, but his walk rate and power have declined every year since 2009. It is this drop in power that is most confusing, since it was expected Gonzalez would hit more homers after escaping the cavernous Petco Park. Clouding the analytics is not knowing how the shoulder surgery Gonzalez had after the 2010 season affected his power, not to mention his mental state during the circus last season in Boston. The safe play is to pay for an average in the neighborhood of .300 and 200 combined runs and RBIs, then let the power take care of itself. Accept 20 bombs; don't chase the possibility of 30.
40. Brandon Phillips, Cin 2BYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics580861877287915.281.321.429.750376
2013 Projections610931876388115.285.333.436.769407
2013 Outlook: After years of teasing fantasy owners with upside potential, Phillips has settled in as one of the more reliable performers in the game. His skills are solid and he's durable, averaging 654 plate appearances a year since 2007. A fantasy roster should feature both risk and stability. Phillips is the perfect complement to offset some speculative picks elsewhere.
41. Craig Kimbrel, Atl RPYEARGGSIPBBKWSVHDERAWHIPK/9PTS
2012 Statistics63062.21411634201.010.6516.66469
2013 Projections69068.02312044101.990.8515.88451
2013 Outlook: If your strategy is to pay for saves, Kimbrel should be the first name on your list by far. His 2012 season ranked among the all-time best for a closer, if not the best; he set new single-season records in terms of his strikeout rate (50.2 percent of total batters faced, minimum 200), K's per nine innings (16.66, minimum 50 innings), FIP (0.78), batting average allowed (.126) and OPS allowed (.358). That gave him back-to-back campaigns of otherworldly statistics, and the Braves smartly lightened his workload in 2012, trotting him to the hill 63 times -- 17 of those on consecutive days and only twice working three straight -- after 79 times, 28 of those on consecutive days and eight times working three straight in 2011. There is precedent for a reliever managing three consecutive seasons at this level of dominance -- see Gagne, Eric (2002-04), as one such notable example -- so consider Kimbrel your most "trustworthy" relief pitching investment for 2013.
42. Jacoby Ellsbury, Bos OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics30343426194314.271.313.370.682171
2013 Projections523861764387627.294.345.465.810382
2013 Outlook: If there were a fantasy baseball dictionary, Ellsbury's headshot should be listed next to "risk/reward player." His career fits: He has per-162-game averages of 16 homers, 53 stolen bases, 107 runs scored, 73 RBIs and a .297 batting average, but in the past three seasons alone he has made four trips to the DL for a grand total of 222 games missed. In Ellsbury's defense, some of those injuries were fluky, such as the rib injury he suffered crashing into Adrian Beltre in the field, but he also warrants criticism for being slow to recover from his ailments. Thankfully, Ellsbury's legs have yet to become a problem, a plus considering so much of his fantasy value is gleaned from his speed. He is the kind of player who makes a valid case to be one of the 10 most valuable players in fantasy baseball if healthy, but is among the most likely to miss time of the early-round targets. How lucky do you feel?
43. Matt Holliday, StL OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5999527102751324.295.379.497.877442
2013 Projections5879829104721144.300.382.520.902469
2013 Outlook: One of the most durable players in the game, Holliday has played at least 155 games five of the past seven seasons, including 157 last year. Be aware, however, that Holliday toughed his way through myriad nagging injuries, including late-season back stiffness. Bad backs can be tricky, so it is best to temper Holliday's playing-time expectation, especially since he's now 33, an age at which injuries tend to linger. Last season, Holliday fanned more and walked less than in 2011, although it is not clear whether this is declining skills, health related or just random fluctuation. Still, combined with the growing injury risk, Holliday is not quite the rock he has been for the past several seasons, and any upside from speed is nonexistent. The take-home message is Holliday is still worthy of an early pick, he just should no longer be given extra credit for reliability and durability.
44. B.J. Upton, Atl OFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics5737928784516931.246.298.454.752324
2013 Projections5758423776016531.245.316.431.747335
2013 Outlook: Upton rode a 21-homer second half in 2012 to a five-year, $75 million payday with the Atlanta Braves, and there's always a danger with high-profile free-agent signees that their skill sets become exaggerated. A 21.6 home run/fly ball percentage contributed to Upton's sudden power outburst; to put it into perspective, keep in mind that he had an 11.3 average in the category from 2009 to '12. To say he fit the profile of a "contract-year player" stepping up his skills is fair, especially considering past questions about Upton's focus on the field. But in his defense, Upton not only finished among the top 50 players on our Player Rater in 2012, but he also did so in 2011, showing the value (for Fantasy purposes) of his 19-homer, 36-steal averages during his six full big-league seasons. He's a liability in the batting average category, but one of the better power/speed options in the game.
45. Yadier Molina, StL CYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2012 Statistics505652276455512.315.373.501.874396
2013 Projections49661177442509.306.362.466.828367
2013 Outlook: Those Cardinals knew what they were doing when they signed Molina to that five-year, $75 million extension last March. Sure, a good chunk of his value derives from his defense, which is largely ignored in fantasy, but the team saw many of the good things in his hitting that we did a year ago. Sadly, we just weren't optimistic enough. Molina continued his pattern of rising fly ball and line-drive rates and rising well-hit averages, resulting in personal bests in home runs (22), batting average (.315) and slugging percentage (.501). He has arrived as the best fantasy catcher not named Buster Posey, with the only slight concern that his nine-homer second half -- driven by a more realistic 9.2 home run/fly ball percentage -- says he's probably more of a 15-18 homer than a 20-25 homer hitter going forward. Oh well, we'll live. Molina is also especially attractive in points leagues thanks to his elite contact rate and durability; he has averaged 138 games played over the past four years.
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