Complete 2015 Projections

Position: All | Batters | Pitchers | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | IF | LF | CF | RF | OF | SP | RP
     
PROJECTED 2015 SEASON STATS
16. Brett Gardner, NYY CF, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics5558717585613421.256.327.422.749411
2015 Projections5488513535613022.263.336.414.750400
2015 Outlook: A poor month of September (.167/.208/.278), the result of trying to play through a core-muscle injury, hurt Gardner's final numbers, but fantasy owners had little else to complain about with regard to his 2014 campaign. Gardner surprised everyone by blasting 17 home runs, more than double his previous career high and more than he had hit in his previous three seasons combined, while also reaching the 80-run, 20-steal and 50-RBI thresholds for a second straight year. Of course, a repeat of the power production can't be expected -- his HR/FB rate of 11 percent was nearly five points above his career mark of 6.5 percent -- but the 31-year-old Gardner should continue to provide quality numbers across the board while serving as the Yankees' leadoff hitter. That is, as long as he's able to maintain his health throughout the year. He underwent surgery to repair the core issue in the offseason, but it was reportedly a very minor procedure.
17. Ryan Zimmerman, Wsh 3B, 1B, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics2142653822370.280.342.449.790163.5
2015 Projections523762083531074.277.342.465.807410.5
2015 Outlook: Now that Adam LaRoche has departed via free agency to the White Sox, the Nats have opened up first base for Zimmerman to move across the diamond -- a move that was desperately needed, given his shoulder woes. Zimmerman has welcomed the move, saying it allows him to focus on his hitting. But it wasn't Zimmerman's shoulder that limited him to just 61 games in 2014 -- rather, he suffered a broken thumb and then a hamstring injury that limited him even once he returned in September. He appears to be fully healed now and will enjoy eligibility at third base and outfield for one more season. The risks with Zimmerman are obvious, but they're also going to be priced in on draft day. Your reward for taking a chance on him could be a 25-homer season.
18. Jayson Werth, Wsh RF, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics534851682831139.292.394.455.849462.5
2015 Projections43169156262908.292.386.464.850369
2015 Outlook: Some will look at Werth's dip in home runs last season and automatically assume that at 35, his power production is bound to decline again in 2015. Not so fast. His HR/FB rate was all the way down at 9.4 percent, nearly half of his 2013 mark (18.2 percent) and almost five percent lower than his career average of 14.2 percent. Granted, his ISO fell by more than 50 points, but Werth improved his contact rate to a career-best 83 percent and his average fly ball distance decreased by less than six feet. Power aside, Werth is still an on-base machine, having finished third in the NL in OBP behind only Andrew McCutchen and Giancarlo Stanton last season, and he remains a steady contributor in average, RBI and runs. He also has enough speed to approach double-digit steals, and the move to left field -- a slightly less demanding position than right -- may help him avoid the types of nagging injuries he fought through last season.
19. Charlie Blackmon, Col RF, LF, CFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics593821972319628.288.335.440.775457
2015 Projections453721456277717.280.331.442.772353.5
2015 Outlook: It's pretty easy to poke holes in Blackmon's offensive game relative to his overall numbers from 2014. He was much better at home; he was significantly worse against lefties; he underwhelmed after May 10; he posted an OPS below .800 despite playing in Coors Field. These are all facts. Still, the 28-year-old finally got a full season's worth of at-bats, and he exceeded everyone's expectations. Fortunately, most are aware of the cautionary signs, so his draft-day price will not be a direct reflection of his production last season. There's likely some regression coming for Blackmon now that opposing pitchers are aware of the fact that he swings at 55 percent of breaking balls and off-speed stuff out of the zone. However, valuable counting stats should still be there if he can hold the every-day job. Despite slashing just .268/.318/.389 after May 10, Blackmon still hit 11 homers with 20 steals in that span. Extrapolate those numbers out over a full season and a 15-homer, 25-steal campaign is not an unreasonable expectation.
20. J.D. Martinez, Det LF, RFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics441572376301266.315.358.553.912356
2015 Projections503582277331346.278.324.483.807358
2015 Outlook: Martinez might have been the biggest surprise of 2014 -- both in fantasy and real terms -- as the Tigers signed him to a minor league deal in March, only to see him slash .315/.358/.553 with 23 home runs in 123 games in the big leagues. A part-time player upon being called up in late April, Martinez eventually locked down a prominent place in the order as the team's No. 5 hitter while taking over as the Tigers' starting left fielder. Boasting a career-high .238 ISO, a mark that ranked 12th among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances, Martinez topped the .300 batting average threshold by making consistent hard contact. Not surprisingly, he had a very high BABIP (.389), more than 50 points above his career norm. Strikeouts have always been an issue for Martinez, and despite last season's breakout, he still fanned in 26.3 percent of his plate appearances. Even with his improved ability to spray the ball all over the field, Martinez is more likely to trend back toward his career .272 batting average than repeat last season's .315, but he could prove to be a cheap source of power again in 2015 with an opportunity to reprise his role behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the Tigers lineup.
21. Josh Harrison*, Pit RF, 2B, 3B, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics520771352228118.315.347.490.837398.5
2015 Projections509741150217717.281.316.440.756365.5
2015 Outlook: Prior to his breakout in 2014, Harrison appeared to be safely entrenched as a quality utility player with the versatility necessary to be an asset in NL-only leagues. For the first time as a professional at any level, Harrison delivered double-digit home runs last season, turning in one of the most surprising performances of 2014 and displacing Pedro Alvarez as the Pirates' starting third baseman in the process. With the move into an every-day role, his strikeout rate ticked up to a career-worst 14.7 percent, but that mark is hardly a concern. Of greater interest is the .353 BABIP that buoyed his .315 batting average, but part of that surge might have been the result of barreling up more pitches, as Harrison dropped his ground ball rate from 46.7 percent in 2013 to 37.3 percent last season while carrying a 24 percent line drive rate. He also wasted fewer at-bats, dropping his infield fly ball rate from 23.1 percent in 2013 to a much more reasonable 7.1 percent. There will be plenty of doubters, but Harrison could end up with a prominent spot in an underrated lineup, and he offers cheap speed as his floor after swiping 18 bags last season.
22. Joc Pederson, LAD LF, CFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics281009110.143.351.143.4948.5
2015 Projections3996620496113621.233.340.424.764316
2015 Outlook: The Dodgers sent Matt Kemp packing this winter in part because Pederson proved himself ready to start his age-23 season with the big league club. Pacific Coast League pitchers certainly won't complain, after he slashed .303/.435/.582 with 33 homers and 30 steals in 553 plate appearances last season with Triple-A Albuquerque. However, expectations for the phenom should be tempered, as he was playing in extremely hitter-friendly environments at Triple-A, which led to a .385 BABIP. There are some questions about his approach, given he had a 26.9 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A, but he also had an 18.1 percent walk rate, which gives him a boost in both OBP and points leagues. Even with Kemp gone, the Dodgers have plenty of outfield depth, so the onus will be on Pederson to force manager Don Mattingly to keep his bat in the lineup. Playing time will be key for the young center fielder, as most of his value will come from counting stats, with his average likely lagging behind. A 20-20 rookie season is conceivable if he hits the ground running.
23. Melky Cabrera, CWS LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics56881167343676.301.351.458.808436.5
2015 Projections52676136044647.298.352.441.793393
2015 Outlook: Cabrera was one of a handful of impressive offseason acquisitions by the White Sox, and, fortunately for fantasy owners, he goes from one great hitting environment (Rogers Centre) to another in U.S. Cellular Field. A plus-plus hit tool is Cabrera's meal ticket in both real life and fantasy. He has hit better than .300 in three of his past four seasons, and last year's .301 average was good for fifth among qualified hitters. Though he missed the final 22 games of the season with a broken pinky finger, he finished with 16 home runs and six steals. Similar counting stats should be present in the switch-hitter's age-30 season. Cabrera should also be a good source of runs, as he will play almost every day, likely hitting second in Chicago's lineup, right ahead of Jose Abreu.
24. Ben Zobrist, KC 2B, SS, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics570831052758410.272.354.395.749409
2015 Projections570781366778511.270.357.418.774437.5
2015 Outlook: The positive slant on Zobrist's 2014 looks at his 6.3 percent HR/FB rate and spins it as an outlier based on his 10 percent career mark, but the negative slant sees that he also had a 6.1 percent rate in 2013 and a 6.0 percent rate in 2010, giving him three seasons of something in the six percent range in his past five. He hit 20 homers in the other two seasons, with a 12 percent HR/FB in both. His three-position eligibility includes shortstop again, making the power dip much more palatable if that's where you plan to slot him more often than not. Only 12 shortstops hit 10-plus home runs, and only six of those chipped in at least 10 stolen bases, too. If you throw in a batting-average threshold of Zobrist's .272, you're down to just three shortstops meeting all three criteria, with Hanley Ramirez and Alexei Ramirez joining Zobrist. There is still a lot of value here, even at 34 years old and in a spacious new home park in Oakland.
25. Ben Revere, Tor CF, LF, RFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics60171228134949.306.325.361.686398.5
2015 Projections58668228205344.290.316.345.661372.5
2015 Outlook: Players such as Revere, who routinely tally 35-50 steals with a high batting average -- no matter how empty -- always get undervalued when the package does not come with some power. In 2,026 career plate appearances, Revere has two home runs, 145 steals and a .291 batting average. That is the package. There's no room for projection, but there's also not much room for regression, given his elite speed and the fact that he does not turn 27 until May. Revere's spot in the Phillies' lineup is critical to his ability to rack up runs and opportunities to steal; with just a .325 OBP last season, he might have found himself in the No. 8 hole on a better team. However, the Phillies do not have many (if any) better in-house leadoff options, so he should once again find himself atop the lineup, offering fantasy owners significant contributions in steals and batting average with above-average runs scored, particularly if the elderly sluggers behind him can bring him around consistently.
26. Shin-Soo Choo, Tex LF, RF, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics455581340581313.242.340.374.714274.5
2015 Projections5187915468013712.263.376.407.783380.5
2015 Outlook: Choo was a major disappointment in the first season of his massive free-agent deal with Texas. However, ankle and elbow injuries that bothered him almost all season likely played a major role in his ineffectiveness, so there remains hope for a bounce back 2015. Choo had surgeries to address both injuries in the final months of the season, and, according to early reports, he should be fully recovered in time for the start of spring training. It was reasonable to expect big things from Choo after he hit 21 home runs with 20 steals and a .285/.423/.462 slash line in 712 plate appearances with the Reds in 2013. The most impressive thing about those numbers is the fact that he continued to be lousy (.215 average) against southpaws and yet still raked enough against righties to keep his rates high. It's not wise to project anyone to get on base at a 40 percent clip, but Choo remains a reasonable threat to hit 15 homers with 15 steals atop the Rangers order.
27. Oswaldo Arcia, Min RF, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics372462057311271.231.300.452.752244.5
2015 Projections501662478411563.246.312.455.767347
2015 Outlook: In the current power-deprived environment, a player such as Arcia with the ability to hit 20 home runs in just 410 plate appearances has value in most formats despite his noticeable flaws. Arcia has not shown a good eye on breaking balls, and he typically cannot handle fastballs up in the zone. These deficiencies in his approach led to a 31 percent strikeout rate, which was ninth worst among hitters with 400-plus plate appearances. Arcia also has a .224/.266/.347 career slash line against lefties, so he should handle the strong side of a left-field platoon in 2015. Even with a shoddy approach and questions about his ability to play every day, it's too early to pigeonhole a 23-year-old whose plus raw power has already started to show up in games. With better health (he missed seven weeks with a variety of injuries in 2014) and a little luck (.292 BABIP last season) he could best his 2014 numbers, but he's already squarely on the radar in fantasy.
28. Brandon Belt, SF 1B, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics21430122718643.243.306.449.755146
2015 Projections491651960501317.265.337.452.789347.5
2015 Outlook: Belt has a dedicated fan base within the fantasy community. Chances are, one guy in your league has continued to go back to the well with Belt and at least had him for three of his four seasons. He keeps doing something to tantalize. His full season in 2013 looked like just the beginning, then he opened the 2014 season with seven home runs in April before a broken thumb limited him to just eight games over the next two months. A concussion all but washed out the second half, necessitating two DL stints and limiting him to just 54 plate appearances in the final two months of the season. The proponents are going to see a fast start that had him pacing toward 30 homers, while the detractors will be leery of what the power spike did to the rest of his numbers, not to mention his 18.2 percent HR/FB ratio, which was well above his previous marks.
29. Steve Pearce*, Bal 1B, 2B, LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics33851214940765.293.373.556.930304
2015 Projections41958205449946.274.358.487.845336
2015 Outlook: Pearce lived his early MLB life as a short-side platoon player on the four corners (first, third, left and right), but a surge against righties resulted in a nice, career year at age 31. He had six homers against right-handers in 488 plate appearances prior to 2014 but hit double that number in just 272 plate appearances while continuing to be a lefty-killer too. The ride appeared over in July, when he managed just a .681 OPS and two home runs, but he caught fire again and closed with a 1.040 OPS and 10 homers in the final two months, despite a lack of full-time play. However, this is his first run of real success against right-handers, and he's too old to map out a legitimate growth pattern. Trusting post-30-year-old breakouts is a fast track to a fifth-place finish, but Pearce should get enough at-bats at DH, with some starts sprinkled in at first base and the outfield corners, to be worth monitoring in deeper formats in 2015.
30. Khris Davis, Mil LFYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPSPTS
2014 Statistics501702269321224.244.299.457.756356
2015 Projections467682269371164.248.315.473.789354
2015 Outlook: As a rookie, Davis spent the final two months of 2013 filling in admirably for Ryan Braun in times of suspension and injury. The Brewers took notice of his impressive offensive showing and made room for Davis in the lineup on a near daily basis in 2014. His first full season went about as expected, with his fringe-average hit tool leading to a .244 average (.299 OBP) and his plus power translating into 22 home runs and a .214 ISO. He's not a good defender in left field, so last season the Brewers traded for Gerardo Parra to occasionally beef up the outfield defense. However, Davis is not the type of player who needs to be platooned, as he's similarly flawed against all pitchers. He can be overpowered by a good fastball, but is great at crushing mistakes. Entering his age-27 season, Davis should once again offer cheap power with solid contributions in runs and RBI.