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Complete 2013 Projections

ESPN's projections are the product of an analysis of a player's past performance, growth or regression potential and expected playing opportunity. While the overall ranking is based in large part on the player's projected performance, it also takes into account risk factors such as age, injury history and past statistical fluidity, the players' ceiling (upside), as well as positional and categorical scarcity.

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PROJECTED 2013 SEASON STATS
1. Troy Tulowitzki*, Col SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics1813382719192.287.360.486.846
2013 Projections544923010258799.301.371.540.911
2013 Outlook: Fantasy owners will be tempted to apply the "injury-prone" label to Tulowitzki. After all, he has averaged only 120 games played in his six full seasons, made four trips to the DL during that span and missed the Rockies' final 113 games of 2012 due to a groin injury that required surgery to remove scar tissue. Tulowitzki is expected to be fully recovered in time for the spring, but he'll be among those players most closely watched in March, as there's no denying he's one of the most valuable at his position when healthy. To that end, from 2010-12, he managed .305/.374/.545 rates while averaging 34 home runs, 118 RBIs, 12 stolen bases and 106 runs scored per 162 games. And from a career perspective, Alex Rodriguez is the only shortstop with more seasons (6) of at least a .290 batting average, 25 home runs and a .900 OPS other than Tulowitzki (3, 2009-11). It's a risky move to draft him in the first three rounds, but one that could have a substantial reward.
2. Jose Reyes*, Tor SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics642861157635640.287.347.433.780
2013 Projections578881047515034.291.345.441.787
2013 Outlook: Part of the Miami Marlins' 2012 one-year-and-done spending spree, Reyes was traded to the Blue Jays in November in one of the largest salary dumps in baseball history. Frankly, from a fantasy perspective, the Marlins did Reyes a favor. In Toronto, he'll bat atop the most potent lineup he has been a part of in at least five years, and keep in mind that in 2008 he scored 113 runs to finish fifth in the majors in the category. Reyes was a top-10-caliber fantasy player back then, and that's his upside in 2013, the primary reason why he's not ranked as such with the injuries he has since battled. He made two separate trips to the DL for hamstring issues in 2011 and has missed occasional contests with hamstring and oblique injuries in the past three years. Plus, as a soon-to-be 30-year-old (June 11), he might not quite be as physically equipped to man the Rogers Centre's artificial turf on an every-night basis. Don't let Reyes slip deep into your draft, especially considering the dearth of quality shortstops, but beware of inflating your expectations of him in his new city.
3. Starlin Castro, ChC SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6467814783610025.283.323.430.753
2013 Projections6588713733610024.296.334.435.769
2013 Outlook: Castro has absorbed his share of criticism for an alleged lack of focus during his three seasons in the bigs, but in his defense, he batted .306/.367/.464 -- all of those higher than his career rates to date -- in the final third of 2012 following his inking a seven-year, $60 million extension with the Cubs. So is it fair to sling barbs his way? The kid begins 2013 at only age 23, and his accomplishments to date rank within range of the greatest shortstops in the game's history; his 529 career hits are fourth-most by any shortstop through his age-22 campaign. Castro has already proven to fantasy owners his durability -- he played all but 11 innings at shortstop last year -- speed and ability to hit for a high average, and scouts felt earlier in his pro career that he had the potential to develop more power. Castro might take only baby steps by year, considering a player's prime is usually in the ages 25 to 30 range, but stepping up his 2012 production would result in a top-25 player.
4. Ben Zobrist, TB OF, 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5608820749710314.270.377.471.848
2013 Projections5659119829110817.269.369.462.831
2013 Outlook: After a three-year stretch of solid but inconsistent production, Zobrist has turned in consecutive seasons of nearly identical numbers. This should be considered his new baseline with a bit of power upside if he can loft a few more balls. His qualifying at three positions, including second base and shortstop, adds to Zobrist's value. That said, this also might induce some to reach for the veteran switch-hitter. So if you want him, be ready to pay the price. Of note is that Zobrist's excellent walk rate leads to sneaky value in on-base percentage and points leagues.
5. Ian Desmond, Wsh SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5137225733011321.292.335.511.845
2013 Projections5517020733312323.270.315.445.759
2013 Outlook: Three shortstops managed a 20-homer/20-steal season in 2012, but only one of them batted greater than .260: Ian Desmond. You heard that right: It was Desmond, not Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins or Jeter, who accomplished the feat, pacing the position with 25 home runs, or three more than he had hit the previous three seasons combined. Desmond did it by improving in two key areas: First, he was more aggressive, for instance swinging 10 percent more often in hitters' counts; and second, he excelled in terms of inner-half plate coverage, including a .333 average and six homers on fastballs inside. That new approach helped him drive the ball with more authority, while he maintained the 20-steal speed he exhibited previously. In short, Desmond's adjustments solidified his 2012 as legit, the only threat of change in his 2013 profile being a possible correction to his 17.5 home run/fly ball percentage. Keep in mind, though, that he was limited to just 130 games last year, and better health might offset any dip in power. Now a prime-aged 27, Desmond belongs in the discussion with the best at his position.
6. Jimmy Rollins, Phi SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6321022368629630.250.316.427.743
2013 Projections563881761556826.261.326.414.740
2013 Outlook: Rollins' batting average keeps him from being an elite fantasy option, but his production, especially as a shortstop, is still stellar. However, there are two noteworthy aspects of Rollins' 2012 campaign. The first is he played a full season for the first time since 2009. It's best to be conservative and temper expectations in terms of playing time, which will take away some counting stats. Next, his contact rate rose significantly, although it was still well below league average. This is of some concern, since Rollins' average is already dampened by a BABIP baseline historically lower than league average. Rollins is still one of the better fantasy options at shortstop, but if someone wants to pay for last season's health and production, let them.
7. Elvis Andrus, Tex SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics62985362579621.286.349.378.727
2013 Projections62590357619432.274.342.350.692
2013 Outlook: It was a tale of two halves for Andrus, as he hit .293 with 16 steals in the first half, dropping to .279 with only five swipes in the second half. Perhaps the drop in steals was intertwined with the general malaise surrounding the Rangers, or maybe it was his declining success rate limiting opportunities. After swiping an impressive 33 of 39 attempts for an 85 percent success rate his rookie season, Andrus' percentage has been only 70 percent since. Because he has no power, Andrus needs to run to be useful and to run a lot to justify a lofty draft status. Running a lot is no longer a sure thing, which explains his lower ranking than the past couple of seasons.
8. Asdrubal Cabrera*, Cle SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics55570166852999.270.338.423.762
2013 Projections5968219765110914.279.342.438.780
2013 Outlook: Although Cabrera's power dropped a bit from a career-high 25 homers in 2011, he proved those gains were real. This new pop will supplement Cabrera's solid batting average and sneaky speed. Of concern is that 2011 also marked Cabrera's career high in games (151) and is the only season in his career he has surpassed 600 at-bats. So while based on skills, Cabrera belongs at the back end of the top tier of shortstops, the risk of missing games drops him down a level. But remember, you can always replace him if he's hurt, which builds in some upside if Cabrera avoids injury.
9. Hanley Ramirez, LAD 3B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6047924925413221.257.322.437.759
2013 Projections452661766489120.263.338.434.772
2013 Outlook: The perception is Ramirez markedly improved after donning Dodger Blue, but the reality is he was the same player who left Miami. He just sported a BABIP 50 points higher post-trade. The hope is the move rejuvenates Ramirez, as his skills have begun to decline at an age he should still be in his peak. Specifically, his strikeout rate is increasing while his power is capped with a decreasing fly ball rate. Aiding this is the fact that Dodger Stadium is favorable for right-handed power, so perhaps Ramirez will loft a few more batted balls. Ramirez's dual eligibility (3B/SS) adds a bit of value. If you're willing to incur some risk, including the fact that he could miss as much as the first two months of the season due to thumb surgery, Ramirez can reap a healthy reward in the middle rounds.
10. Erick Aybar, LAA SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics51767845226120.290.324.416.740
2013 Projections53977947286724.275.317.401.717
2013 Outlook: Aybar's counting numbers were down a bit last season, as the result of being moved down in the order upon the arrival of Mike Trout. With the departure of Torii Hunter, Aybar is slated to move back up, meaning more runs and possibly more steals. Aybar still doesn't draw many walks, but on the other hand, he rarely whiffs, so his average is solid. Another plus is he has become a very efficient base stealer, sporting an excellent 83 percent success rate over the past two seasons. All told, it wouldn't be a shock if he eclipsed his career-high 30 pilfers set in 2011.
11. Danny Espinosa, Wsh 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics5948217564618920.247.315.402.717
2013 Projections5908020635217519.242.317.412.729
2013 Outlook: Espinosa is one of fantasy's rare power/speed middle infielders -- he was one of five second basemen with at least 15 home runs and stolen bases apiece last season -- but also one of the game's most free-swinging players; he had the seventh-worst strikeout rate (28.7 percent), sixth-worst swing-and-miss rate (32 percent) and fifth-worst swing rate on non-strikes (39 percent) in baseball. That made him both a batting average and on-base percentage liability, and to throw more concerns on the pile, he played through a torn left (non-throwing arm) rotator cuff -- an injury that, if it returns, might eventually require surgery -- and has a talented backup for his position in Stephen Lombardozzi. Fortunately, Espinosa is a middle-of-his-prime 26 (he turns 27 in April), so there's reason to believe he could make a run at 20/20 numbers if healthy, even if his other categories disappoint. That's a rotisserie-league asset; it's probably also a player overrated in things like points-based or head-to-head leagues.
12. Alcides Escobar, KC SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics605685522710035.293.331.390.721
2013 Projections58167548298831.265.306.360.666
2013 Outlook: Escobar is a speedy fella, and it's his legs that drive his two greatest fantasy contributions: stolen bases and batting average. The former point is obvious, as he has boosted his steals total in each of his three big league seasons and was an impressive 19-for-20 on steal attempts the second half of 2012. As for the latter, Escobar ranked second in the majors in bunt hits (11) and ninth in infield hits (24), a critical point if you consider that he has managed ground ball rates higher than 50 percent in each of the past two seasons. This is a hit-it-on-the-ground-and-leg-it-out player, but a successful, young-enough one (he's 26) at that. Though BABIP variations could always lower his batting average to the point that he's more of a one-category performer, Escobar is one of those rare players who can use his speed to influence that category, and he has as good a chance at leading his position in steals as anyone. He's a fine midrounder.
13. J.J. Hardy, Bal SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics663852268381060.238.282.389.671
2013 Projections652922779411050.267.311.445.756
2013 Outlook: If you like targeting players coming off a down season but who played a little better than the stats might indicate, Hardy is your man. Coming off a 2011 season that featured a career-high HR/FB and fly ball percentage, Hardy's power was sure to regress. Expect a slight bounce-back this season as the regression reverses. Hardy's average is also a candidate to bounce back because his contact rate was better than the previous season. His .238 average was the result of a drop in power (homers are hits, too) along with a lower-than-usual BABIP, which should also improve. Just don't count on another full season, since 2012 was the first year Hardy topped 150 games since 2007.
14. Marco Scutaro, SF 2B, SSYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics6208777440499.306.348.405.753
2013 Projections6108897148517.293.344.405.749
2013 Outlook: For most, a move to San Francisco from Colorado would result in performance decline, but the opposite occurred for Scutaro as his penchant for hitting gap line drives played quite well in AT&T Park. Granted, a repeat of a .362 average is not happening, but Scutaro's excellent contact rate and line-drive ways should hover him near .300. The caveat is it will be rather vapid as the scrappy veteran no longer contributes much speed or power; however, if he remains at the top of the order, runs should be plentiful. If you need a batting average boost, Scutaro fills a need, but be careful not to pay for last season's second-half and postseason heroics.
15. Derek Jeter*, NYY SS, DHYEARABRHRRBIBBKSBAVGOBPSLGOPS
2012 Statistics68399155845909.316.362.429.791
2013 Projections581851054478612.293.350.396.745
2013 Outlook: When last we saw Jeter, he was exiting Game 1 of the American League Championship Series with a fractured ankle, potentially the result of his having pushed himself to play through a foot injury suffered five weeks earlier. Reports on his rehabilitation -- tabloid photos aside -- were positive and all indications were that he'd be ready for Opening Day, or if not then soon thereafter. But to what extend might Jeter's injury hamper his 2013 on-field performance? Let's not gloss over that he'll turn 39 years old in June, he had already seemed to lose a step before the injury, attempting a career-low 13 steals all of 2012, and he's an extreme ground-baller (his 63.7 percent rate was second in the majors last year) who is going to need speed to leg out hits and drive his batting average. Jeter's lefty/righty splits are also widening to the point where against right-handed starters -- the more sizable sample -- he should no longer be a leadoff man. The Yankees apparently aren't considering that, meaning another 90-plus run season is a virtual lock, but if they do someday, his downside will expand.
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